Player Watch 2024 AFL Draft Thread

[Platten44]

It doesn't matter in regards to the picks and where we finish. We obviously still back ourselves. What we did was a pick slide rather than give up a 1st and a second. I am gonna take that every day of the week.

It’s a pick upgrade if we finish ahead of Carlton

 

[DogDaySonny]

Mate we had hardly spoken to the eagles? The eagles wanted first and second. Our initial offer wasn't going to get it done. They did want 14 but wanted the rest of the picks as futures. We knew 14 was gone. We were never holding it either way. There was never a scenario where we get Barrass and keep 14. That was even with a player being part of the deal. So we went to work and took 14 out of the equation. It was a smart move to get barass because it still means we have the flexibility to upgrade our pick in the draft. We have more options thus way. Once again we were never keeping 14

I reckon you and Job would be mates.

 

[kirbatron]

it will cost and arm & a leg to move up this draft I don't see it happening. think weddle trade +20% if it's < 20

 

[hawkinoz]

From what’s come out it seems we didn’t even offer up 14 outright. We wouldn’t have gotten close to offering 14 and 33.

It’s not just as simple as a first and second is what they needed. As firsts and seconds all have different values.

Just as we might not trade in if we had 14 on draft night we could easily trade it out. Teams will be looking to trade into this draft.

We had barely spoken to the eagles before trading 14. f1 and 33 should have at least been offered in this case.

This is the point I was making earlier. Prior to trade period, we were told Hawks and Eagles had an understanding and posters like me should be ready to be disappointed with the inference being 14+F1 was on table, just a question of what we get back, with many here fine with getting just Eagles F2 back.

But from the transpired events it is clear we rated TB as around late teens pick and clearly not 14+X. So did we have an understanding with Eagles or not? If this is how we rated TB then why did we not push back at media claims of 2 first but instead we were amplifying those.

This post-mortem analysis is to see if there are any learnings we can carry for future & to back up posters who were calling for HFC to push back at media claims.

If we were talking with Eagles then we should have wrapped up the F1+33( was 31 then) deal on Day 1. Should have made clear that pick 14 is not on table for TB and on Day 2 should have openly put it on market and had a bidding war for it. Given the clamour for Pick 13 we would have had better offers.

Cats held their nerve and pushed back at 2 firsts( yes I know TB was under contract but Eagles has significant risks to holding him). Some lessons for us there.

PS : only dragging this talk since there is nothing else to talk about till Nov 20. Also these posts should be under the trade thread ideally but that seems dead.

 

[TheFourPillars]

This is the point I was making earlier. Prior to trade period, we were told Hawks and Eagles had an understanding and posters like me to be ready to be disappointed with the inference being 14+F1 was on table, just a question of what we get back with many fine with getting just Eagles F2 back.

But from the transpired events it is clear we rated TB as around late teens pick and clearly not 14+X. So did we have an understanding with Eagles or not? If this is how we rated TB then why did we not push back at media claims of 2 first and instead we were amplifying those.

This post-mortem analysis is to see if there are any learnings we can carry for future & to back up posters who were calling for HFC to push back at media claims.

If we were talking with Eagles then we should have wrapped up the F1+33( was 31 then) deal on Day 1. Should have made clear that pick 14 is not on table for TB and on Day 2 should have openly put it on market and had a bidding war for it. Given the clamour for Pick 13 we would have had better offers.

Cats held their nerve and pushed back at 2 firsts( yes I know TB was under contract but Eagles has significant risks to holding him). Some lessons for us there.

PS : only dragging this talk since there is nothing else to talk about till Nov 20. Also these posts should be under the trade thread ideally but that seems dead.

I don't think that was what Hawthorn were ever going to do 1st & f1 was a wa media narrative. Cats held their nerve cos everyone in the industry knows the boys problems

 

[Dewnior]

Not sure which clip you have seen but this game in particular I am told Taj had a day out and shows the exact type of player he is.



After watching it myself, I can see why he is thought of very highly. Has great balance and decision making and looks to have plenty of time on the ball.

I know Sheezel started in defence at North, but he reminds me of him the way he moves and kicks. That’s off the limited footage I have seen of him though

I only watched the first minute and didn't need to see any more. This bloke has it. Would love to take the expensive risk and trade up to nab him.

 

[Dewnior]

Which makes no sense

Its a ranking

Not a phantom draft

I thought Cal's was always based on club needs and not necessarily a ranking which is often why some higher ranked elsewhere slide. He's been pretty much on the money for the top 20 for a few years

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

I only watched the first minute and didn't need to see any more. This bloke has it. Would love to take the expensive risk and trade up to nab him.

If Hotton happens to fall passed 14, I reckon a few clubs will be ringing GWS trying to trade up to get in before Richmond’s later first round picks.

Don’t think we have a chance even if we were interested

 

[Mojo]

I thought Cal's was always based on club needs and not necessarily a ranking which is often why some higher ranked elsewhere slide. He's been pretty much on the money for the top 20 for a few years

I think that's right - Cal's a Reporter; he'll obviously use the information he attains to develop his Phantom Draft.

 

[Roddy27]

I thought Cal's was always based on club needs and not necessarily a ranking which is often why some higher ranked elsewhere slide. He's been pretty much on the money for the top 20 for a few years

He does phantom form guides through the year- his last one being last week of October, which is a ranking. He will do his phantom draft just prior to the draft which will be based on where he thinks players will actually go. And yes- his top 10-20 very rarely move anywhere other than changing places with each other.

 

[FB19]

This is the point I was making earlier. Prior to trade period, we were told Hawks and Eagles had an understanding and posters like me should be ready to be disappointed with the inference being 14+F1 was on table, just a question of what we get back, with many here fine with getting just Eagles F2 back.

But from the transpired events it is clear we rated TB as around late teens pick and clearly not 14+X. So did we have an understanding with Eagles or not? If this is how we rated TB then why did we not push back at media claims of 2 first but instead we were amplifying those.

This post-mortem analysis is to see if there are any learnings we can carry for future & to back up posters who were calling for HFC to push back at media claims.

If we were talking with Eagles then we should have wrapped up the F1+33( was 31 then) deal on Day 1. Should have made clear that pick 14 is not on table for TB and on Day 2 should have openly put it on market and had a bidding war for it. Given the clamour for Pick 13 we would have had better offers.

Cats held their nerve and pushed back at 2 firsts( yes I know TB was under contract but Eagles has significant risks to holding him). Some lessons for us there.

PS : only dragging this talk since there is nothing else to talk about till Nov 20. Also these posts should be under the trade thread ideally but that seems dead.

What are the better offers for pick 13? From my recollection you had the pies offering f1 and noble, dogs was just f1, Sydney offered their picks 19 and 22 which I think was the best offer, dees were offering f1 and a second rounder this year before trading for dons pick 9. On that evidence blues f1 and f2 seems like a pretty good valuation for pick 14.
Ultimately you don’t get every transaction 100% perfect and for mine we ended up giving less for Barrass than we all thought, got Battle for free and hold f1/2 with the ability to take a good player at 33 or trade up for a target in the late teens or early 20s. Most importantly we have stabilised the list where it’s hard now to predict list changes for 2025 beside retirements. It’s a good spot to be and well done to the team. A year ahead of where I thought we would be all going well.

 

[Scrads]

It’s a pick upgrade if we finish ahead of Carlton

Again

 

[The Chad and I]

Taj Hotton is what Luke Breust

22

Luke Breust

Age

35

Ht

182cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

4.8

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

1.8

5star

would have looked like as a midfielder, and would complement our list perfectly.

He would be worth trading up to get him around pick 15-20 and a good chance to slip down that far given his limited 2024.

His stats in the underage year look barely ok.
So it's really on the strength of 3 games in 2024 that he is so highly rated.
Given the decent depth of the draft, clubs might feel there are lower risk options and we get a shot at Hotton.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

I thought Cal's was always based on club needs and not necessarily a ranking which is often why some higher ranked elsewhere slide. He's been pretty much on the money for the top 20 for a few years

On his Phantom Draft yes

On these current undertakings, its purely rankings based (hence Ashcroft being @ 1)

 

[hawkinoz]

What are the better offers for pick 13? From my recollection you had the pies offering f1 and noble, dogs was just f1, Sydney offered their picks 19 and 22 which I think was the best offer, dees were offering f1 and a second rounder this year before trading for dons pick 9. On that evidence blues f1 and f2 seems like a pretty good valuation for pick 14.
Ultimately you don’t get every transaction 100% perfect and for mine we ended up giving less for Barrass than we all thought, got Battle for free and hold f1/2 with the ability to take a good player at 33 or trade up for a target in the late teens or early 20s. Most importantly we have stabilised the list where it’s hard now to predict list changes for 2025 beside retirements. It’s a good spot to be and well done to the team. A year ahead of where I thought we would be all going well.

Only late Friday noon did word get out that Pick 14 could be traded, was not hinted by ITK's as well. To me it looks like a Plan C/D tactic and not enough time was built to get a clamour for it.

Age had a mock draft and has us taking Harrison Oliver who they themselves state is the best small defender

https://archive.is/4PDoZ

Shows how deep the draft is. ( PS : error in article as they have Essendon picking before us but don't have a pick due to kako bid)

Which should make trading up not costly affair but somehow is this year since Tigers have most picks on sale.

 

[Hawkspot]

Only late Friday noon did word get out that Pick 14 could be traded, was not hinted by ITK's as well. To me it looks like a Plan C/D tactic and not enough time was built to get a clamour for it.

Age had a mock draft and has us taking Harrison Oliver who they themselves state is the best small defender

https://archive.is/4PDoZ

Shows how deep the draft is. ( PS : error in article as they have Essendon picking before us but don't have a pick due to kako bid)

Which should make trading up not costly affair but somehow is this year since Tigers have most picks on sale.

I appreciate their effort but I can’t see any world in which we take a small defender with our first pick.

Bmac, Ryan, and Mitchell already as depth, behind Impey, Amon, and Hardwick. Frost plays small too.

 

[TylerDurden]

I appreciate their effort but I can’t see any world in which we take a small defender with our first pick.

Bmac, Ryan, and Mitchell already as depth, behind Impey, Amon, and Hardwick. Frost plays small too.

Agree. Zero chance.

 

[hawkinoz]

I appreciate their effort but I can’t see any world in which we take a small defender with our first pick.

Bmac, Ryan, and Mitchell already as depth, behind Impey, Amon, and Hardwick. Frost plays small too.

Given how that mock draft went, that makes sense. He seems most talented of the ones left on board. Was talked as a late 1st rounder earlier and we have interviewed him. And given his talent, he can likely play other positions as well. Doesn't seem to have tested at Combine.

Who else would you take?

ESPN has us taking Sims as he was still on board.

2024 AFL Phantom Draft: Every pick in the first two rounds

Jasper Chellappah has released his latest two-round AFL Phantom Draft for 2024, with the first of a big two-night event now just two weeks away. Who is your club looking to pick with its early selections?

www.espn.com.au

Not able to link just the google sheet and so linking post below. Scythe94 has created this to compare talent

Preview - 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

Doubt any of the decent KPF’s fall that far. Our FF could be a mid 20’s pick next year in a weak draft. Happy to risk the potential downside to bring in a guy who I think has good scope. Hoping that Jaques falls to 45 for us. That would be a steal

www.bigfooty.com

 

[matey]

ESPN has us taking Sims as he was still on board.

With elite mobility at 199cm 8th in the agility test very interesting . A great combo option with Dear for next decade ….. the way he moves for a big kid l like.


Thomas Sims
State: Victoria Metro
State League Club: Northern Knights
Community: Montmorency
Date of Birth: 12/05/2006
Height: 199cm

A tall forward or ruckman whose ability in the air separates him from others. Uses his natural spring and strong grip to pull in marks and also follows up well at ground level. Had an impressive season with the Northern Knights, averaging 11.5 disposals and 4.2 marks and kicking 23 goals in 13 matches. This included kicking seven goals and taking 10 marks in a best-on-ground performance against the Oakleigh Chargers in Round 6. He was also part of Victoria Metro’s title-winning team at the National Championships, with his three-goal effort against Western Australia his most productive performance. His elite mobility was on display at the Draft Combine, ranking eighth on the agility test with a time of 8.14 seconds.

 

[Tomohawks]

With elite mobility at 199cm 8th in the agility test very interesting . A great combo option with Dear for next decade ….. the way he moves for a big kid l like.


Thomas Sims
State: Victoria Metro
State League Club: Northern Knights
Community: Montmorency
Date of Birth: 12/05/2006
Height: 199cm

A tall forward or ruckman whose ability in the air separates him from others. Uses his natural spring and strong grip to pull in marks and also follows up well at ground level. Had an impressive season with the Northern Knights, averaging 11.5 disposals and 4.2 marks and kicking 23 goals in 13 matches. This included kicking seven goals and taking 10 marks in a best-on-ground performance against the Oakleigh Chargers in Round 6. He was also part of Victoria Metro’s title-winning team at the National Championships, with his three-goal effort against Western Australia his most productive performance. His elite mobility was on display at the Draft Combine, ranking eighth on the agility test with a time of 8.14 seconds.

We've gotta get a big forward no doubt to pair with Dear and this kid ticks all the boxes big time. I don't mind Gerrynn as well with his potential to play key forward and to chop out in the ruck. I think we'll go a big to suit our timeline nicely.

 

[Dewnior]

With elite mobility at 199cm 8th in the agility test very interesting . A great combo option with Dear for next decade ….. the way he moves for a big kid l like.


Thomas Sims
State: Victoria Metro
State League Club: Northern Knights
Community: Montmorency
Date of Birth: 12/05/2006
Height: 199cm

A tall forward or ruckman whose ability in the air separates him from others. Uses his natural spring and strong grip to pull in marks and also follows up well at ground level. Had an impressive season with the Northern Knights, averaging 11.5 disposals and 4.2 marks and kicking 23 goals in 13 matches. This included kicking seven goals and taking 10 marks in a best-on-ground performance against the Oakleigh Chargers in Round 6. He was also part of Victoria Metro’s title-winning team at the National Championships, with his three-goal effort against Western Australia his most productive performance. His elite mobility was on display at the Draft Combine, ranking eighth on the agility test with a time of 8.14 seconds.

Too similar to Dear I think. We need to pair Dear/Mitch with an absolute brute in the Roughead / Hawkins mould. It would be good if Skaife can become this but I'd be hedging my bets and recruiting another.

 

[Tomohawks]

Too similar to Dear I think. We need to pair Dear/Mitch with an absolute brute in the Roughead / Hawkins mould. It would be good if Skaife can become this but I'd be hedging my bets and recruiting another.

He looks like a big lump of a lad though. It looks like he could be that brute we need, same with Gerryn.

 

[Bugs1977]

Barrass was contracted for 3 years. West Coast always had the upper hand in that trade, but I thought we did quite well in the end.

We currently have pick 33. We either wait to see who slides through to us, in a relatively deep draft, or we attempt to trade up on the night if a player we rate very highly slides to a particular point.
Two years ago Hawthorn was initially criticised for overpaying just to draft an undersized half-back flanker named Josh Weddle. It might not always pay off, but if we aggressively trade up to secure a kid we are keen on, I'm happy to back our recruiters in.
Adding more talented kids to an already exciting youthful list will only entice more Free-Agents.

Well said. I know we all make fun of it but there's a reason why sleepy Mark looks so sleepy and it's because of all the extra hours he puts into combing the country for talent. Outside of the DGB selection MM and CO haven't let us down much if at all.

 

[hawkinoz]

He looks like a big lump of a lad though. It looks like he could be that brute we need, same with Gerryn.

At Pick 33 we will have enough options. Surely one of Sims, Gerryn, Mraz, Barrat, Oliver, Davis etc will be available. So any trade deals that includes pick 33 means other side are not losing out much as this draft is quite equal from 15-35 or so

Gerreyn looks impressive too


Came across this fan ranking with player comparison, Strength & weakness by BennyGan

 

[Manila_Hawk]

With elite mobility at 199cm 8th in the agility test very interesting . A great combo option with Dear for next decade ….. the way he moves for a big kid l like.


Thomas Sims
State: Victoria Metro
State League Club: Northern Knights
Community: Montmorency
Date of Birth: 12/05/2006
Height: 199cm

A tall forward or ruckman whose ability in the air separates him from others. Uses his natural spring and strong grip to pull in marks and also follows up well at ground level. Had an impressive season with the Northern Knights, averaging 11.5 disposals and 4.2 marks and kicking 23 goals in 13 matches. This included kicking seven goals and taking 10 marks in a best-on-ground performance against the Oakleigh Chargers in Round 6. He was also part of Victoria Metro’s title-winning team at the National Championships, with his three-goal effort against Western Australia his most productive performance. His elite mobility was on display at the Draft Combine, ranking eighth on the agility test with a time of 8.14 seconds.

I'm all in on this kid.

Great overhead mark.
Long raking handball.
Plenty of game awareness.
Rucks OK.

I'm sold.