Game Day 2024 AFL Fantasy Round ZERO Discussion

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Zevon]

This looks like how I’ll be shaping up although I feel like I want Gawn so there are options to make that work too. Either way it’s thin AF mids for me

Hard to get my head around the plan with Gawns sub par score. On the 1 hand it means his price won’t move as much pre bye and maybe just the cash gen of xerri will be the best playbut on the other hand in a hard match up his scoring for 3/4 quarters was good enough and I can still see him going 108-110 and being a great pick

Yeah I’m sticking with Max. Had a sub par (yet still solid) score playing on a swamp against a strong ruck opponent. I didn’t see anything that would worry me going forward.

 

[DenieD]

A lot of people talking up Williams. As I think it's a good thing to have two sides of discussions (positive and negatives) I will quickly look at some of the negatives:

• Has a bye in round 2 so basically you are paying over 400k for someone who will average (as of right now) 34.5 over the first 2 rounds (if he scores the same 69 in round 1)
• Right now (after just 2 games so far this round) we already have a 200k defender in Howes who scored more than Williams (74 v 69) and will play every game until Melbournes bye in round 6 (unless he gets dropped). I presume we will get more options like him in other games this round. And did I mention he is over 200k cheaper.
• 51 points in the first half when Carlton were getting smashed. 18 points in the second half when Carlton came back and won (and that is with Docherty being injured in that second half). Voss probably preferred that second half when Williams had to man up more.
• Another Carlton defender in Boyd managed to score more than Williams in a (presumably) worse role and is even cheaper than Williams. Williams isn't anywhere near a must get.

 

[Zevon]

A lot of people talking up Williams. As I think it's a good thing to have two sides of discussions (positive and negatives) I will quickly look at some of the negatives:

• Has a bye in round 2 so basically you are paying over 400k for someone who will average (as of right now) 34.5 over the first 2 rounds (if he scores the same 69 in round 1)
• Right now (after just 2 games so far this round) we already have a 200k defender in Howes who scored more than Williams (74 v 69) and will play every game until Melbournes bye in round 6 (unless he gets dropped). I presume we will get more options like him in other games this round. And did I mention he is over 200k cheaper.
• 51 points in the first half when Carlton were getting smashed. 18 points in the second half when Carlton came back and won (and that is with Docherty being injured in that second half). Voss probably preferred that second half when Williams had to man up more.
• Another Carlton defender in Boyd managed to score more than Williams in a (presumably) worse role and is even cheaper than Williams. Williams isn't anywhere near a must get.

God dammit DenieD how dare you bring up logic and facts to make me question my entire existence fantasy side like this!! What did I ever do to you?!

 

[tigs2010]

Just need tigs2010 to have him in his team and then punt him for somebody else now. It’ll go from “hamstring tightness, may miss a week” to “grade 3 hamstring tear, 6 to 8” in a flash. Poor old Parish won’t know what hit him.

Actually put him in for Bont this morning to see what it could do for my side. The answer was not much but just checked and never moved out so think we can blame this on me

 

[mezaire]

A lot of people talking up Williams. As I think it's a good thing to have two sides of discussions (positive and negatives) I will quickly look at some of the negatives:

• Has a bye in round 2 so basically you are paying over 400k for someone who will average (as of right now) 34.5 over the first 2 rounds (if he scores the same 69 in round 1)
• Right now (after just 2 games so far this round) we already have a 200k defender in Howes who scored more than Williams (74 v 69) and will play every game until Melbournes bye in round 6 (unless he gets dropped). I presume we will get more options like him in other games this round. And did I mention he is over 200k cheaper.
• 51 points in the first half when Carlton were getting smashed. 18 points in the second half when Carlton came back and won (and that is with Docherty being injured in that second half). Voss probably preferred that second half when Williams had to man up more.
• Another Carlton defender in Boyd managed to score more than Williams in a (presumably) worse role and is even cheaper than Williams. Williams isn't anywhere near a must get.

I have some counter points......

• I expect Williams to avg 20-30 more than Howes
• The role was there, no doubt
• Williams is around the 14th-16th best score in my starting team (by estimations) and he is my only rd2 bye player. So I have 10-12 other players with the chance to step up in rd 2
• If Howes covers in rd 2, it's only a 20-30 point loss for a heap of $$$
• None of the HB's scored well after half time. Carlton went long and direct. If Carlton are in front and controlling the game, he will go much better

Honestly I am expecting him to avg 80 by rd 6

I am also not starting with Coffield as it gives me an easy out if Williams doesn't pay off

 

[DenieD]

I expect Williams to avg 20-30 more than Howes

Certainly possible and even I think Williams could and should average 20 points more than Howes over the whole season, but over the first 5 rounds it is very unlikely now.

The role was there, no doubt

If the role was there the whole game I would be even more worried about Williams. He scored 3 points in the whole last quarter.

Williams is around the 14th-16th best score in my starting team (by estimations) and he is my only rd2 bye player. So I have 10-12 other players with the chance to step up in rd 2

I am personally going with zero round 2 bye players because they are so reliant on their round 0 and round 1 scores in order to be keepers over their bye. I'd much rather have a round 5 or round 6 bye player than a round 2 bye player. I would've only considered having a round 2 bye player if one of them went huge (like if Dunkley got a 150) then I possibly would start with them as the price rise and possible points would be too good to pass up in round 1.

If Howes covers in rd 2, it's only a 20-30 point loss for a heap of $$$

What heap of $$$? Williams is projected to make only 15k or so if the price changes were to happen this round. If he scores another 69 it will be around 30k after round 1 (I think that's how it works with the prices for round 0 players). There are many other options that could come up who could score and make so much more money than Williams does.

None of the HB's scored well after half time. Carlton went long and direct. If Carlton are in front and controlling the game, he will go much better

Not true. Newman scored 47 points in the second half. McGovern scored 53 (with a 33 point last quarter). Even Boyd scored 22 points in the last quarter.

 

[4tune8]

Certainly possible and even I think Williams could and should average 20 points more than Howes over the whole season, but over the first 5 rounds it is very unlikely now.

If the role was there the whole game I would be even more worried about Williams. He scored 3 points in the whole last quarter.

I am personally going with zero round 2 bye players because they are so reliant on their round 0 and round 1 scores in order to be keepers over their bye. I'd much rather have a round 5 or round 6 bye player than a round 2 bye player. I would've only considered having a round 2 bye player if one of them went huge (like if Dunkley got a 150) then I possibly would start with them as the price rise and possible points would be too good to pass up in round 1.

What heap of $$$? Williams is projected to make only 15k or so if the price changes were to happen this round. If he scores another 69 it will be around 30k after round 1 (I think that's how it works with the prices for round 0 players). There are many other options that could come up who could score and make so much more money than Williams does.

Not true. Newman scored 47 points in the second half. McGovern scored 53 (with a 33 point last quarter). Even Boyd scored 22 points in the last quarter.

Couple of things to note, if he scores another 69 (wish I could score one) then his price rise will be higher than 30k because his BE is lower in rnd 1 because of the 69 in rnd 0

I reckon he was pretty gassed by the last 1/4 and assume that the plan was to sub him off at 3/4 time for Carrol, Doc's injury put a spanner in those works. Of course Doc is now an upgrade target in rnd 6 (or 4 rounds after he comes back) because of his injury score.

I don't understand your logic about a player having to score large over rnds 0 & 1 in order to be keepers over their bye.

 

[DenieD]

I don't understand your logic about a player having to score large over rnds 0 & 1 in order to be keepers over their bye.

I meant just for round 2 bye players (and to some extent round 3 bye players as well). If you have a Brisbane or Carlton player in your starting side they have to (in my opinion) score incredibly well in round 0 to be considered as you are basically paying for a zero score in a very early round. With the amount of trades we have during the season (over 50 trades this season) we can easily swap out our entire team twice over, so we should be focusing on very big price rises and high scores (particularly early on) as we can always trade players when they start underperforming.

 

[Lukesera]

Those that are going Heeney & Jackson… are you also starting Fisher? I’m looking at doing that but just wondering how many others are hitting that heavy in a line that we’ve pretty much written off as being worthy of spending big on all pre season.

Currently got all 3 and I'm even considering starting Flanders too, depending on how he goes today.

Already played around with finding the cash to get him in but it requires Daicos having a stinker today.

 

[happy_eagle]

At this stage the only change I have made to my side as a result of R0 games is

E.Phillips for B.Howes at D8.

However with Coleman now out, thinking
1. Coleman down to Z.Williams (D5)
2. Fyfe to Heeney (although still not convinced on Heeney)

If I could find some coin elsewhere I could get Fyfe up to Amon in the middle.

 

[Phar Ace]

Something I didn't realise is that Fantasy pricing uses a 5 game rolling average to calculate BE's (according to stats guru Jaiden Popowski) So any of these round 0 players that score well above their starting BE's are going to have that score roll through. Heeney is a good example with his 121 having an effect up until his his bye in round 5 and according to the guru, the biggest effect.

https://twitter.com/jaiden_popowski

I thought it was three rounds tbh. Which is why I tend to jump on Rookies in their second game because they still seem to carry the lower starting average value AND it sometimes helps avoid a bit of dead weight if all the hype doesn't materialise (McKercher excluded - like Daicos and Sheezel before him).

 

[4tune8]

I meant just for round 2 bye players (and to some extent round 3 bye players as well). If you have a Brisbane or Carlton player in your starting side they have to (in my opinion) score incredibly well in round 0 to be considered as you are basically paying for a zero score in a very early round. With the amount of trades we have during the season (over 50 trades this season) we can easily swap out our entire team twice over, so we should be focusing on very big price rises and high scores (particularly early on) as we can always trade players when they start underperforming.

Ok, a few more things to consider and I'll use Zilliams, he's already scored over his BE with a 69 so his BE is now lower than what his buy in price was, so something like 30-35 meaning if he scores an 80 in rnd 1 then he's already made 45k on his starting price with a lower BE again, so if he scores 80 in rnd 3 he could rise more than 50k again and so on until he's traded out or injured.

Players scores in rnd 0 only count towards their BE in the following 4 games that they play.

Only the best 18 scores count in rounds 2-3-5-6

Any player missing a bye doesn't end up with zero, they are replaced by the 19th-20th-21st player's score depending on how many players are missing from that round.

Williams is missing from round 2 and in my team Z Reid will come onto the ground for him. Reid scored a 67 in the praccy and could conceivably only be 10 points under what I'm hoping Williams to average.

The scores then from D5 (Williams position) would be 69 (rnd 0) + 80 (rnd 1) + 67 (Reid rnd 2) + 80 (rnd 3) giving an average of 76 over the first 3 rounds of the season as rnd 0 scores don't count.

 

[4tune8]

I thought it was three rounds tbh. Which is why I tend to jump on Rookies in their second game because they still seem to carry the lower starting average value AND it sometimes helps avoid a bit of dead weight if all the hype doesn't materialise (McKercher excluded - like Daicos and Sheezel before him).

Yeah same, that's why I was surprised to see the stats guru mention it. I'm sure though that SC uses the 3 game rolling average.

 

[RilesMacca]

bugger off Balta don't concuss the super sexy sexton

 

[bettingonbetts]

If Sexton isn’t in 100% of teams after this game, lots of nuffies playing

 

[Exambolor]

Rowell might finally be a Fantasy relevant mid….. and this isn’t a false dawn, been fantastic this game. Could be becuase the Tigs are rubbish though. A cheeky post bye in maybe?

 

[tigs2010]

Rowell might finally be a Fantasy relevant mid….. and this isn’t a false dawn, been fantastic this game. Could be becuase the Tigs are rubbish though. A cheeky post bye in maybe?

Would want to see it against someone that isn't Thomson Dow lmao

 

[Zevon]

Not sure I can read anything into any Suns players this game. Need to apply the “they were playing West Coast Richmond” discount to whatever they score.

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Alot of Richmond tax here, can wait till after the bye if you aren't 100% on our players

 

[RilesMacca]

Budarick has looked decent, considering how little ball they've gotten in their backhalf. Priced at around 55 as well.

 

[Exambolor]

Alot of Richmond tax here, can wait till after the bye if you aren't 100% on our players

Does that apply to Ned though? He could be the exception

 

[Phar Ace]

Not sure I can read anything into any Suns players this game. Need to apply the “they were playing West Coast Richmond” discount to whatever they score.

Ouch, stop punching tigs2010 in the nuts. Tiges horrible out of the middle, and any stoppage for that matter. Back 6 not positioning well for all the incoming. Poor kicking is poor footy. Seth Campbell looks good.

 

[Zevon]

Ouch, stop punching @tigs2010 in the nuts.

You should see our PMs… he’s been more scathing on the Tigers than anyone! Literally renamed the conversation “we’re a flaming pile of you know what and that’s me being nice”

Am I lying tigs2010??

 

[matty lloyd the champ]

Rowell might finally be a Fantasy relevant mid….. and this isn’t a false dawn, been fantastic this game. Could be becuase the Tigs are rubbish though. A cheeky post bye in maybe?

Until he averages more than 2 marks a game, you just can't pick him as a fantasy player.

 

[tigs2010]

You should see our PMs… he’s been more scathing on the Tigers than anyone! Literally renamed the conversation “we’re a flaming pile of you know what and that’s me being nice”

Am I lying tigs2010??

Facts