Opinion 2024 and Beyond

[Bloods86]

Also, I've tried to rank players within positions (best first) but it's not exact. E.g. we've not seen Snell with us, so could swap with Edwards, and our half backs I seemingly forgot (all different types and strengths anyhow).

So in most positions, you want to see more green at the top, darker green more preferable, for long term quality.

It will look better when I post mids, our defensive stocks don't look fantastic in this regard.

 

[Bloods86]

Outside Mid / Wing

Onto the middle of the ground, and this imo is where things start to look a bit better in terms of medium to long term depth. We have a list of names we're all probably comfortable with as being Best 22 locks (at least the top 4-5 below), that play on the wing, come off the wing, or are more suited as a 3rd at bounces to receive the ball and break away. As mentioned, there is some overlap with HB for JMac and Campbell, but barring significant injuries, we have enough good talent for these positions. Getting Jordon in, Best 23 for a consistently Top 4 side, where he can either start on a wing or in the square, helps us out too.

Where we may have issues, is if neither Mitchell or Co Warner are able to take next steps, either Mitchell from an injury affected first year (he did show some signs), or Corey W after building to solid VFL form. If we find that the likes of Sheldrick, Roberts don't continue their pre-injury trajectories, or Cleary in his first few years doesn't live up to expectations (not necessarily breaking into the seniors), then that puts pressure on some of these guys to spend more time inside, and reduces our outside/wing options.

So, a further wing or half-back option next year isn't necessarily a bad idea (to add to the options or allow someone to shuffle around), but it's not a big need right now. That said, if we don't get the development mentioned above, our needs will change by the next national draft.

PS. I know Kirk is also capable on the outside, but we've got several incl Magor and Mills that have suited up from the wing, so tried to focus on the main options.

 

[Bloods86]

Inside Mids

Some overlap here with Gulden, Warner on the wings or the outside mid at bounces, Mills potentially down back, Jordon as a backup wing option too. If we find that Magor doesn't work out down back, then Mills may leave a hole in midfield in the medium term. Similarly if we don't get at least one of Mitchell or Co Warner come on, we may have less inside minutes from Gulden, Chad.

If Sheldrick can avoid too many injuries, we all expect him to continue to rise and cement a place in the 22. Roberts was tracking well prior to injury this year as well. Cleary is likely to become a good, if not spectacular inside mid at senior level. Rowbottom, along with any time Chad or Errol spend on the inside, is only likely to get better, given their relatively young ages for main mids. All of these guys should give us cause for optimism in the medium to long term, some even in the short.

Our trade period has helped our flag objectives right now, with our Mad Monday having a bit of a say as well. Given we pretty much always draft an inside mid, or at least a hybrid type, every year, I expect we'll do the same in 2024 and beyond. How the above youngsters progress will determine whether it should just be the requisite one, or whether we need to focus a bit more here, like the 2021 draft.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Outside Mid / Wing

Onto the middle of the ground, and this imo is where things start to look a bit better in terms of medium to long term depth. We have a list of names we're all probably comfortable with as being Best 22 locks (at least the top 4-5 below), that play on the wing, come off the wing, or are more suited as a 3rd at bounces to receive the ball and break away. As mentioned, there is some overlap with HB for JMac and Campbell, but barring significant injuries, we have enough good talent for these positions. Getting Jordon in, Best 23 for a consistently Top 4 side, where he can either start on a wing or in the square, helps us out too.

Where we may have issues, is if neither Mitchell or Co Warner are able to take next steps, either Mitchell from an injury affected first year (he did show some signs), or Corey W after building to solid VFL form. If we find that the likes of Sheldrick, Roberts don't continue their pre-injury trajectories, or Cleary in his first few years doesn't live up to expectations (not necessarily breaking into the seniors), then that puts pressure on some of these guys to spend more time inside, and reduces our outside/wing options.

So, a further wing or half-back option next year isn't necessarily a bad idea (to add to the options or allow someone to shuffle around), but it's not a big need right now. That said, if we don't get the development mentioned above, our needs will change by the next national draft.

PS. I know Kirk is also capable on the outside, but we've got several incl Magor and Mills that have suited up from the wing, so tried to focus on the main options.

View attachment 1862997

Of course you have rightly put Florent in the medium defender group but he could also step in here if absolutely necessary. Yet to be proven but I would be inclined to give Jordon the benefit of the darker green.

 

[Bloods86]

Of course you have rightly put Florent in the medium defender group but he could also step in here if absolutely necessary. Yet to be proven but I would be inclined to give Jordon the benefit of the darker green.

I think Jordon is slightly more an outside player / wing, but I've played it safe and had him lighter green for both. In that I expect we could put him on the wing, or at bounces and he'd do a solid job. Which is exactly what I think we'll do. He'll get 30% or so of CBAs in full games he plays, as well as maybe the first change for one of the wingers.

And yeah, Florent could play most "small" positions, even up forward (just wouldn't want him taking a set shot further than 35 out).

 

[Kiama Chris]

Inside Mids

Some overlap here with Gulden, Warner on the wings or the outside mid at bounces, Mills potentially down back, Jordon as a backup wing option too. If we find that Magor doesn't work out down back, then Mills may leave a hole in midfield in the medium term. Similarly if we don't get at least one of Mitchell or Co Warner come on, we may have less inside minutes from Gulden, Chad.

If Sheldrick can avoid too many injuries, we all expect him to continue to rise and cement a place in the 22. Roberts was tracking well prior to injury this year as well. Cleary is likely to become a good, if not spectacular inside mid at senior level. Rowbottom, along with any time Chad or Errol spend on the inside, is only likely to get better, given their relatively young ages for main mids. All of these guys should give us cause for optimism in the medium to long term, some even in the short.

Our trade period has helped our flag objectives right now, with our Mad Monday having a bit of a say as well. Given we pretty much always draft an inside mid, or at least a hybrid type, every year, I expect we'll do the same in 2024 and beyond. How the above youngsters progress will determine whether it should just be the requisite one, or whether we need to focus a bit more here, like the 2021 draft.

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I believe the 2024 draft is supposed to be deep for mids, unlike this one, so the issue might be self-solving. Again, a lot depends on who we let go too. It seems likely that a couple of KPDs may go, which would help us rebalance.

 

[Bloods86]

I believe the 2024 draft is supposed to be deep for mids, unlike this one, so the issue might be self-solving. Again, a lot depends on who we let go too. It seems likely that a couple of KPDs may go, which would help us rebalance.

I also think we're starting to see some rewards from the MSD. HHK was a bit stiff, but McAndrew is close to being at least a backup option, Buller looks promising, and I don't think Arnold would disgrace himself if he had to play seniors.

Any pressing needs e.g. if there's a few KPDs that look gone (injury or otherwise), a KPF (if Amartey is struggling), a mature ruck (if Grundy has any issues), or if the kids don't progress, there might be a 19-20 year old mid that looks like an option. That said, hopefully we have the "disappointment" of missing the best options in any MSD participation given our high ladder position.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

So I thought I'd do some projections of our list across the next decade, to identify gaps and when we might need to have newish, new or yet to join players ready by. I've broken this down with a bit more granularity in some positions, but I can't get ultra nuanced. There's a few players in multiple categories, but I haven't gone too far with this, rest assured we'll probably still give Paps some midfield minutes, Fox can play on smalls or talls in the short term, Magor may end up going back to the forward line etc etc. I refuse to entertain Ladhams as a forward option though.

Assumptions (I won't be repeating these, thank goodness):

• contract extensions are a given
• player form is reasonably consistent, closer to the better form a player has shown before, rather than basing it off inconsistent or poor years a player has had in 2023 (looking at you Isaac, Will et al)
• If I rate a player, the club rates a player and they have a generally good reputation, that they will be good ongoing and in the 22 despite any cries to the contrary (in before anyone tries any Rowbottom sniping)
• Kids or new draftees I've had to take a punt based on what we've seen and hype, had to assume a few recent draftees will become Best 22 (or the future looks scarier), and some I have hopes for like Magor, I just don't think I can be as confident
• So these inform the dark green (Best 22, shown to be good to great capability or highly rated) to lighter green (decent to good, many will be in the 22, kids hopefully turn out to be AFL quality if not stars).
• Yellow is for players with some uncertainty over how they'll be that year or turn out overall, or if they have considerable injury concerns so that they cannot be trusted. Melican is an example. If fit, he's Best 22 imo, so light green to dark green, but I just can't trust his body. Amartey was close but has had better luck getting on the park in the last 2 years.
• I've tried to taper players off as they get to around 32, a few like Lloyd I think are prolonged a little bit more given durability, others I've ended a year or two earlier given injury issues. Likewise I've guessed at how long new players, or younger players who've had injury issues, would take to get up to speed. That's the peach (won't impact, or on the way out) and grey colouring (done).
• I've stabbed at how many of each position we need e.g. we tend not to overload on genuine small forwards

Let me know if the resolution/size is rubbish. It'll be far better on PC/laptop.

KPDs

To me it's pretty clear that KPD is still an area of concern. We have the numbers, but there's reliability concerns and/or quality question marks over nearly everyone. I think we'll likely lose at least one, probably two of Melican, Francis, Arnold, Edwards either by delisting or they show enough, but can't get a gig. That's before assessing Rampe's final year prospects. So I think we go again for at least a mature ager (rookie, MSD, SSP) and a draftee (national, rookie) in the next 12-15 months. Even if Hamling, Francis, Arnold, Edwards produce the quality (and the latter 3 are retained), it's looking a little dicey from 2025-26 onwards based on age/readiness.

View attachment 1862482

This is a really good way to show the strength and depth of a list. Thank you Bloods86

 

[Bloods86]

Small/Defensive Forwards

Papley and Konstanty should provide medium term coverage of the goalkicking type, especially if Konstanty can get a clear run (hopefully in 2024). We clearly rated JK in the 2022 draft (so did most analysts), and now the entire team knows that he's not to be underestimated, right up to our captains.

We could look at bringing in another smaller type, one who can do both the defensive work (that Wicks is very capable of), now that we've moved Clarke on, while hitting the scoreboard a bit more often (not a knock on Wicks, but someone to be both his backup, and another decent goalkicking option for depth).

Corey Warner, if he doesn't crack the midfield, could be used as a defensive forward. Campbell too, with what he's learned in the backline, however if he's in the forward line, you probably want him at half-forward, so either on a half-back (making them accountable), or loose, to be delivering inside 50, or taking shots from around the F50 himself. And then you're robbing him from elsewhere. Still, a fallback option anyway. Sheldrick and a resting Adams are probably going to get some forward minutes over the next couple of years as well.

Medium Forwards

Assuming form and consistency issues don't persist, Heeney and Hayward will be locks in our 22 for the next 4-5 years. Regardless of what some fans (including myself at times) think. They are both capable of high ceilings for their position/role, though 2023 was a down year from much of the previous two seasons. I thought about making this position dark green overall, but felt like giving them both a slight whack even if they are capable of much more. If Magor is used down back, or ends up being delisted next year, then there's a spot here to look at bringing someone new into. Parker may offset that in his remaining 2-3 years, especially if the younger mids progress as hoped, acting as a medium forward, not so much a leading up type, but slipping free into space or making the most of contested opportunities.

Barring midfield and defence needs, Mills actually makes a decent medium forward, able to apply some pressure and a good kick for goal. But I'd hope we don't need to do this.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Small/Defensive Forwards

Papley and Konstanty should provide medium term coverage of the goalkicking type, especially if Konstanty can get a clear run (hopefully in 2024). We clearly rated JK in the 2022 draft (so did most analysts), and now the entire team knows that he's not to be underestimated, right up to our captains.

We could look at bringing in another smaller type, one who can do both the defensive work (that Wicks is very capable of), now that we've moved Clarke on, while hitting the scoreboard a bit more often (not a knock on Wicks, but someone to be both his backup, and another decent goalkicking option for depth).

Corey Warner, if he doesn't crack the midfield, could be used as a defensive forward. Campbell too, with what he's learned in the backline, however if he's in the forward line, you probably want him at half-forward, so either on a half-back (making them accountable), or loose, to be delivering inside 50, or taking shots from around the F50 himself. And then you're robbing him from elsewhere. Still, a fallback option anyway. Sheldrick and a resting Adams are probably going to get some forward minutes over the next couple of years as well.

Medium Forwards

Assuming form and consistency issues don't persist, Heeney and Hayward will be locks in our 22 for the next 4-5 years. Regardless of what some fans (including myself at times) think. They are both capable of high ceilings for their position/role, though 2023 was a down year from much of the previous two seasons. I thought about making this position dark green overall, but felt like giving them both a slight whack even if they are capable of much more. If Magor is used down back, or ends up being delisted next year, then there's a spot here to look at bringing someone new into. Parker may offset that in his remaining 2-3 years, especially if the younger mids progress as hoped, acting as a medium forward, not so much a leading up type, but slipping free into space or making the most of contested opportunities.

Barring midfield and defence needs, Mills actually makes a decent medium forward, able to apply some pressure and a good kick for goal. But I'd hope we don't need to do this.

View attachment 1863420

100%

 

[caesar88]

 

[Kiama Chris]

Jordon out, Wicks in.
Hamling vs Melican!!!!

 

[caesar88]

Jordon out, Wicks in.
Hamling vs Melican!!!!

Yeah does feel like that team is a bit 'wingman-heavy' and not really 'pressure-heavy.' I'd go with Wicks over Jordon as well, unless Jordon out-performs a McInerney or a Campbell over the pre-season.

 

[Bloods86]

KPFs

In McDonald and McLean, we should have 2 forward pillars for the medium to long term. It's not really about the number of goals, though it'd be nice if one of them could step up towards 40 a year consistently, maybe even just both hit the 30s, along with the likes of Heeney, Papley. If they bring others in and share the load, that will do.

Amartey clearly has issues at getting a good run at it. Suffice to say, he's not reliable, at least for now. But I think he's shown that if he could get up to playing 60-70% game time at a consistent level, and play most games, he could be the most prolific forward we have. From some of his VFL games in 2022 (amongst the leading 5 or 6 goalkickers with only 14 games, 2 of which he came off before half time) and his best senior performances, we can see that he's able to dominate, just needs to prolong those periods.

Luckily, if Amartey misses games, Buller has looked mobile, competitive and able to string some goals together. Look forward to him getting a few more opportunities next year. Almost single handedly gave our reserves structure forward of centre, despite rocking up halfway through the year.

Reid if fit, and back to 2022 form, could be massive, and pose all sorts of challenges for opposition defences having to cope with him and a now consistent McLean in contested marking situations. I have almost no confidence this will happen, but there's always hope.

Given Reid's short time remaining, and Amartey's reliability, I'd be wanting us to bring in a KPF, or at least a powerful medium forward (188-192cm) who can be a target, in the next 12 months, even if Buller progresses well. You really want at least 5 forward targets on the list, or you risk a stunted VFL team which doesn't help any area of development. Snell is an option, though likely he'll be needed down back within a couple of years. Joel Cochran has been a KPD/2nd ruck in our Academy, but played forward in the Futures game (2 goals), so maybe we see more of that in his draft year (2024).

 

[Bloods86]

Ruck

There's not really a lot to be said here (and yet I still managed). We needed a No.1 ruck, and we just went out and grabbed the best available, on special. If Grundy performs even remotely close to his form prior to the big contract, he's an upgrade on our past 2 years (after Hickey's 2021 career best performance). We then just need McAndrew or Ladhams to be performing consistently in the VFL, as able backup, while Green develops. If Ladhams doesn't turn the corner mentally, then I'd expect him to be relegated to a forward pocket, probably behind that tree at Tramway, for the last 2 years of his "AFL" career. If he can stay disciplined in all senses of the word, then we saw he was quite capable during cameos in 2022.

McAndrew has progressed well and should continue. However, if Ladhams is performing, Grundy looks like he's going nowhere for another couple of years, and Green is tracking well, he is out of contract in 2024... In any case, barring a significant injury to Grundy, where a mature ager might be sought via the MSD or SSP (2025), and if McAndrew stays on, then I don't see any new rucks coming in for a while.

Buller in, rotating the ruck between he, McLean and Amartey, is another break-glass option if the Top 3 below succumb to some calamity, or as a group, cut in front of Konstanty in the cafeteria.

 

[Dan87]

A KPF taking a contested mark and kicking a goal is the most impactful play in football

Of course it's about the goals

 

[Bloods86]

A KPF taking a contested mark and kicking a goal is the most impactful play in football

Of course it's about the goals

It doesn't have to be one player kicking 50+ though, as I said, if we have a couple in the 30-40 range, that can work.

 

[Bloods86]

Here's the Pies goalkicking tally. Split the difference between Mihocek and McStay, for what we'd want out of Logan and McLean, then if Amartey can play enough games to kick 25, and we get good contributions from Heeney, Papley, Hayward (basically goal output from this year plus some more around the ground impact from the 2 H's) and a few others kicking around 20 (Gulden, Chad, Wicks), we'll kick enough.

 

[Dan87]

It's not really a surprise that a team can win with varied goal kicking distributions

You can't just say every one will kick our goals and it'll be fine. It wasn't this year.

Even if we had a similar spread to Collingwood equalling isn't enough we have to be better and in our own way to win

 

[Bloods86]

And finally, the Bloods Hierarchy of Needs (though mine is top to bottom), stuff Maslow.

It's not quite perfect, I've made some manual adjustments. Inside Mid will continue to get attention each year or two, as it should since it's an area you can't afford to skimp on. In contrast, you can use certain mids as small/defensive forwards at a pinch, and youngsters can often have an impact in a small forward role a bit earlier, so don't necessarily need as much development time as KPFs, inside mids. Ruck may well sort itself out with McAndrew, Green and Ladhams in the medium to long term, but it's still up in the air after Grundy finishes. Also feel I've been too generous with KPF, given I've been banging on about having 5 on the list, so probably should be further up.

 

[Bloods86]

It's not really a surprise that a team can win with varied goal kicking distributions

You can't just say every one will kick our goals and it'll be fine. It wasn't this year.

Even if we had a similar spread to Collingwood equalling isn't enough we have to be better and in our own way to win

I'm not sure you're directly quoting or even paraphrasing what I've said. All I'm saying is that you can be successful without having someone kicking big numbers. There are players that will probably need to kick more than this year, I've mentioned a few (McLean, Amartey, Wicks, Warner slightly). There are others that can probably kick about the same, but have more impact elsewhere (looking at Heeney and Hayward), to give others the chance to kick a few more. Though ideally I'd like Heeney to be closer to his 2022 tally (or at least in similar form), as that puts the fear of god into defences, creating more opportunity for others.

 

[Dan87]

I'm not sure you're directly quoting or even paraphrasing what I've said. All I'm saying is that you can be successful without having someone kicking big numbers. There are players that will probably need to kick more than this year, I've mentioned a few. There are others that can probably kick about the same, but have more impact elsewhere (looking at Heeney and Hayward), to give others the chance to kick a few more. Though ideally I'd like Heeney to be closer to his 2022 tally (or at least in similar form), as that puts the fear of god into defences, creating more opportunity for others.

No one person kicked a lot this year and many tried to chip in and had shit efficiency. As a team we had shit efficiency. Kind of what you expect to be the norm when no one wants the responsibility and we have no A grade key forward. Obviously there are outlier seasons by clubs.

Expecting the same forward line to put up premiership numbers is hopeful and it is about the goals. The amount of easy goals to capitalise on good ball movement, the amount of goals from contested marks under immense pressure. The type of goals KPFs kick imo

Otherwise it becomes harder and more improbable to sustain good conversion and high scoring for a whole season although not impossible

Imo

 

[caesar88]

Our forward line will be fine as a group, they're the least of our worries IMO.

 

[Bloods86]

No one person kicked a lot this year and many tried to chip in and had s**t efficiency. As a team we had s**t efficiency. Kind of what you expect to be the norm when no one wants the responsibility and we have no A grade key forward. Obviously there are outlier seasons by clubs.

Expecting the same forward line to put up premiership numbers is hopeful and it is about the goals. The amount of easy goals to capitalise on good ball movement, the amount of goals from contested marks under immense pressure. The type of goals KPFs kick imo

Otherwise it becomes harder and more improbable to sustain good conversion and high scoring for a whole season although not impossible

Imo

It's a good thing it's probably not going to be the "same" forward line then. I think there's a logical assumption that Logan, McLean and Amartey all kick more goals. McLean will need to continue on late season form obviously, but he won't be rucking as much, and they're all 24 and under. We known Heeney is capable of much more, it's not necessarily the case that he has another 2023, instead of a 2022. Warner, Wicks can pick up a bit more etc.

With a better ruck, midfield reinforcements, we should be getting more opportunities too. It's not just a matter of going "same personnel, same output" as our mediocre 2023.

 

[Kiama Chris]

And finally, the Bloods Hierarchy of Needs (though mine is top to bottom), stuff Maslow.

It's not quite perfect, I've made some manual adjustments. Inside Mid will continue to get attention each year or two, as it should since it's an area you can't afford to skimp on. In contrast, you can use certain mids as small/defensive forwards at a pinch, and youngsters can often have an impact in a small forward role a bit earlier, so don't necessarily need as much development time as KPFs, inside mids. Ruck may well sort itself out with McAndrew, Green and Ladhams in the medium to long term, but it's still up in the air after Grundy finishes.

View attachment 1863735

The nature of this kind of situational analysis is that it changes regularly. One serious injury can change everything.
I reckon your position by position "chapters" are pretty spot on. As younger players develop and older ones decline it's not too hard to see what changes. The real difficulty is in this last step and putting it all together in a list with contracts and real live human to muck things up.
If we assume that at the end of 2024 there are no players retiring and no-one wanting to be traded then who we delist becomes a crucial component in maintaining list balance. Almost certainly we will delist two tall defenders as a number are OOC. Not currently best 22 but OOC are: Arnold, Buller, Edwards, Fox, Francis, Kirk, Konstanty, Magor, McAndrew, Mitchell, Reid and Vickery. Melican best 22. Crunch time but opportunity from the list management perspective.