Prediction 2024 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

[JustOneTime]

On the surface it seems a poor theme to you Arrow as you cant connect the dots.

 

[thylacine60]

As a matter of interest, is there any club in recent history using the draft with an expectation of finding a depth player?

I'm including all drafts, including mid-season rookie, which is where we got sam durdin, so yes..........

 

[gbatman]

Durdin would be a lock in our side if we didn't have really really good options in Marchbank and McGovern. Releasing Weitering to play looser is a valid idea however with Marchbank and McGovern and at times Kemp doing the intercepting role as a team really well. Weitering of course takes a good share of marks as well, having him on key targets really puts him where the ball is going.

Here is a question, do we intercept as a team really well? Are our defensive intercept mark numbers as good as other sides or is it an area to improve? I just get the feeling that because we have multiple interceptors, it's a strength, there is no player to shut down.

IMO Durdin could well come in for teams who have the second big forward. But that depends if Marchbank fails in that role.

It's tricky as you have to lose a little something to gain a little something. The MC would be as unsure as we are. I think Durdin was probably very very close to coming in for the prelim. Reckon Marchbank just got the nod.

 

[JustOneTime]

I'm including all drafts, including mid-season rookie, which is where we got sam durdin, so yes..........

So then...

The main draft you don't draft for a depth player. Seems right.
The mid -season draft which has been designed for drafting cover, you then might draft for depth as a choice if you team needs it - say for finals.

Seems straight fwd.

 

[Arr0w]

On the surface it seems a poor theme to you Arrow as you cant connect the dots.

No, I know exactly what you are trying to do, but it's a major fail.

Like using possession stats to rate backmen

Perhaps use your original username and stop trying to target people, while feigning debate

 

[gbatman]

The TDK, SOS, Pittonet is another conundrum. I like Pittonet as he competes with the top line rucks really well. However SOS and DeKoning gives us amazing mobility and two rucks who can play forward. I'm keen to go with the latter, SOS and TDK as the forward rotations and the mobility around the ground we get from the mix is really good. But you would not want to be dominated in the ruck, could be the difference in a game against a team like Brisbane, Melbourne or Collingwood. Or does it give us the advantage?

 

[JustOneTime]

No, I know exactly what you are trying to do, but it's a major fail.

Like using possession stats to rate backmen

Perhaps use your original username and stop trying to target people, while by feigning debate

I'm trying not to respond to your posts so not trying to target you. But again if you read above you are responding to my posts causing this showdown .

I'm happy to not respond to your posts. Let my posts go through to as others can respond or it is really you who are targeting me.

 

[JustOneTime]

The TDK, SOS, Pittonet is another conundrum. I like Pittonet as he competes with the top line rucks really well. However SOS and DeKoning gives us amazing mobility and two rucks who can play forward. I'm keen to go with the latter, SOS and TDK as the forward rotations and the mobility around the ground we get from the mix is really good. But you would not want to be dominated in the ruck, could be the difference in a game against a team like Brisbane, Melbourne or Collingwood. Or does it give us the advantage?

I'm in the TDK + JSoS corner for same reasons. But I'm not concerned if Pitto is in form as an option. If Pitto is out of form then I'd be concerned.

 

[Arr0w]

I'm trying not to respond to your posts so not trying to target you. But again if you read above you are responding to my posts causing this showdown .

I'm happy to not respond to your posts. Let my posts go through to as others can respond or it is really you who are targeting me.

You can do whatever you like, but whatever you post as an alias or otherwise is open to a rebuttal

But curious, how did TDK fail, supposedly being in the side over Jsos or any other ruck/forward.

Even though it has nothing to do with what took place with backline structures in 2023

 

[JustOneTime]

You can do whatever you like, but whatever you post as an alias or otherwise is open to a rebuttal

But curious, how did TDK fail, supposedly being in the side over Jsos or any other ruck/forward.

Even though it has nothing to do with what took place with backline structures in 2023

The reference was to when Voss dropped JSoS as the third tall fwd to trial TDK as the third tall fwd (Pitto must have been ruck in that 1-2 game period). Can't remember the round/date unless you force me to dig it out (please don't, please just remember). This example was nothing to do with ruck skills/choice. Just who should play third tall fwd and pinch hit ruck. Voss mention at the time (in the media pre-game) he just wanted a different look at the fwd setup.

I think this experiment went for two weeks but at least 1. TDK as a fwd in at least the first match was completely ineffective. It was a big call and it was Voss wanting to look at at different setup. It is a great example of Voss and the MC always looking to improve (which involves change).

The TDK ineffective bit is my opinion but im sure would go uncontested by those who watched at least that first game.

 

[JustOneTime]

Even though it has nothing to do with what took place with backline structures in 2023

Changing or looking to always improve isnt reserved for just the backline is my overall point. i've given examples of change.

In 2024 im sure they will trial all of Kemp, Boyd, Cowan and Cincotta to see what each offers in certain matches. So my point can be made there to. Expect change as they experiment in 2024.

 

[Arr0w]

The reference was to when Voss dropped JSoS as the third tall fwd to trial TDK as the third tall fwd (Pitto must have been ruck in that 1-2 game period). Can't remember the round/date unless you force me to dig it out (please don't, please just remember). This example was nothing to do with ruck skills/choice. Just who should play third tall fwd and pinch hit ruck. Voss mention at the time (in the media pre-game) he just wanted a different look at the fwd setup.

I think this experiment went for two weeks but at least 1. TDK as a fwd in at least the first match was completely ineffective. It was a big call and it was Voss wanting to look at at different setup. It is a great example of Voss and the MC always looking to improve (which involves change).

The TDK ineffective bit is my opinion but im sure would go uncontested by those who watched at least that first game.

Jsos must have really been lighting it up when we dropped him to play 2 guys that are considered ruckmen first, over an undersized ruckman who is still is an average forward

No one would consider that as "TDK failing" or use it as a theme for our backline structures last year

But if you want to roll out your ruck agenda in every thread/debate, knock yourself out

 

[Arr0w]

Changing or looking to always improve isnt reserved for just the backline is my overall point. i've given examples of change.

In 2024 im sure they will trial all of Kemp, Boyd, Cowan and Cincotta to see what each offers in certain matches. So my point can be made there to. Expect change as they experiment in 2024.

"IMHO"

 

[JustOneTime]

"IMHO"

"IMHO"

 

[JuddgementDay]

Durdin doesn’t lack quality.
He was drafted as a very talented KPF. Picked at 16. Injury really cost him. That’s his issue

He went back to SANFL and reinvented himself as a Key Defender. He is the same age as Weitering and slightly taller. He is also tough. That’s why he was drafted by us. The backup thing is BS. Once drafted you are a required player.

Think Sam Collins, Jackson Payne, Harrison Petty, Callum Wilkie etc Have had to go back or move clubs, maybe change positions and then become vital players

What I like about Durdin is he is calm, plays a team game, does the 1% well and bloody good one on one. Go to training and watch him on Charlie or McKay. They struggle. Is he a Weitering? No, but he can play a vital role if needed

IMO NO ONE on our list is just depth or a back up.

I can only go by what I see and when we do game days drills Durdin plays deep and Weitering in front of him.

I don’t have Durdin high on my list, but it’s great to hear your high assessment of him - it gives our selection panel lots of choices

 

[gbatman]

I think Durdin has gone past Young in the pecking order should Weitering go down. Young and Weitering together doesn't work great. Young isn't great as an instinctive defender, which means he hasn't got the best footy brain and makes positioning mistakes particularly when it comes to guarding space V manning an opponent and making those decisions. Young is pretty good when replacing Weitering as our number one tall/full back. He can sit on an opponent and do a decent job of it, he's a big guy, good mark and has decent footy skills. It's a simple role.

Does Weitering and Durdin together work? I'm not sure. Probably if two lockdown tall defenders are required. I can see why Marchbank is preferred. He gives us another runner and is an elite intercept player. Playing on the taller forwards is a little bit of an unknown. McGovern is in the same boat. He's a tallish interceptor who is lightning quick and very well skilled. Genuine footballer with a good football brain. No evidence to suggest that these guys don't cover the taller forward lines well.

We seemed to get through games against two talls like Geelong pretty well. It wasn't really an issue against Brisbane, other factors were at play there.

I personally like how opposition will look at our backline and it won't be all about shutting down Saad to eliminate our run. We will have a few running ball magnets there so they can't all be stopped. The same goes with our intercepting game. Teams aren't going to look at shutting Weitering down to nullify our intercepting game. Weitering is going to be on the number one target so there is no real way of avoiding him unless the opposition go to efforts to avoid using their number one forward which I remember sides doing against us when we had SOS in the team in his prime. It doesn't appear to happen much and it wouldn't work because we have so many intercept options with Marchbank and McGovern also there, Kemp sometimes as well.

 

[Love the Drake]

First time in years we have had such a strong squad to pick from. So many players fighting for spots in our best 23.

I think our backs and mids are pretty strong. I’m of the belief that Voss will play to our strengths and go ‘big and strong’ in our midfield. Don’t worry about this fixation with quick midfielders - at our best we monster the opposition and get the ball first. I also think we will add speed when needed (wingers, small forwards & backs).

Small forwards and Rucks are the most intriguing positions for the MC to decide on. I really think it will come down to pre season form and matchups.

BACKLINE LOCKS (5)
Talls - Weiters and Gov
Smalls - Saad Newman Williams (when fully fit)

IN CONTENTION (1 tall/1 small)
Talls - Marchbank Kemp Young Durdin
Smalls - Boyd Cinc Cowan

MIDFIELDER LOCKS (7)
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Kennedy
Acres
O Hollands

IN CONTENTION
E Hollands J Carroll Binns Wilson

FORWARDS LOCKS (3)
Charles
Harold
Jack M

IN CONTENTION
JSOS Motlop Owies Fog Little Durds Cuningham E Hollands Fantasia Moir

RUCKS (LOCKS) (1)
TDK - he’s ready to take on the no. 1 role

*a fit Pitto makes things interesting as Vossy is a big fan. My gut feel is he plays against Brisbane and Big O

UTILITIES (3 - all will play in my opinion)
Doc
Cottrell
JSOS

***The only players I don’t believe are AFL ready and will be developed in the VFL are:
O’Keefe
Lemmey
Monahan
Akuei
M Carroll

19 LOCKS

FB Newman Weiters ???
HB Saad Gov Williams
C Acres Cripps O Hollands
HF JSOS Harry ???
FF Martin Charlie ???
R TDK Cerra Walsh
I/C Kennedy Hewett Doc Cottrell ???

 

[GoBlues!]

We finished the season extremely well to make the preliminary final, and the off season brings its own optimism and hope for supporters.

But we fell short this year and what changes, personnel or otherwise are going to make the difference. Williams back will be great but our defence wasn’t the issue this year, hence most best 22s leaving out the likes of Cincotta and Kemp who were great contributors this year.

Our transition to the forward line and hitting targets could be improved, and in the finals our key forwards had ordinary games - Harry’s season was probably his worst and Charlie couldn’t carry the burden with defenders double teaming him. E Hollande and Fantasia are newbies who could make a difference. My biggest hope is that Harry can turn it around and get back to his best, that will make a huge difference.

 

[spry]

I dont want to dismiss the whole point of this thread, its just sobering to think that this was our round 13 team v the bombers:




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Aphrodite]

Not sure what TDK and Jsos have to do with the discussion of Durdin and or the backline, or in what capacity TDK failed compared to Jsos, given they are completely different types

The key point of the post i quoted was about if it aint broke don't fix it. My point/theme is in response to that. The MC will continue to experiment/change based on a huge range of factors from strategy through to a players formline.

The JSoS / TDK is relevant as that is an example of the MC experimenting with change to a well defined way of playing (last 2+ years with JSoS the third tall fwd).

I don't expect you to understand as I feel you have an agenda of not understanding.

Poor theme then, during those times 1 or more of Pitto, TDK, Jsos were out injured, while still being different players

And, nothing to do with the backline

"I don't expect you to understand as I feel you have an agenda of not understanding."

On the surface it seems a poor theme to you Arrow as you cant connect the dots.

No, I know exactly what you are trying to do, but it's a major fail.

Like using possession stats to rate backmen

Perhaps use your original username and stop trying to target people, while feigning debate

I'm trying not to respond to your posts so not trying to target you. But again if you read above you are responding to my posts causing this showdown .

I'm happy to not respond to your posts. Let my posts go through to as others can respond or it is really you who are targeting me.

You can do whatever you like, but whatever you post as an alias or otherwise is open to a rebuttal

But curious, how did TDK fail, supposedly being in the side over Jsos or any other ruck/forward.

Even though it has nothing to do with what took place with backline structures in 2023

The reference was to when Voss dropped JSoS as the third tall fwd to trial TDK as the third tall fwd (Pitto must have been ruck in that 1-2 game period). Can't remember the round/date unless you force me to dig it out (please don't, please just remember). This example was nothing to do with ruck skills/choice. Just who should play third tall fwd and pinch hit ruck. Voss mention at the time (in the media pre-game) he just wanted a different look at the fwd setup.

I think this experiment went for two weeks but at least 1. TDK as a fwd in at least the first match was completely ineffective. It was a big call and it was Voss wanting to look at at different setup. It is a great example of Voss and the MC always looking to improve (which involves change).

The TDK ineffective bit is my opinion but im sure would go uncontested by those who watched at least that first game.

Changing or looking to always improve isnt reserved for just the backline is my overall point. i've given examples of change.

In 2024 im sure they will trial all of Kemp, Boyd, Cowan and Cincotta to see what each offers in certain matches. So my point can be made there to. Expect change as they experiment in 2024.

Jsos must have really been lighting it up when we dropped him to play 2 guys that are considered ruckmen first, over an undersized ruckman who is still is an average forward

No one would consider that as "TDK failing" or use it as a theme for our backline structures last year

But if you want to roll out your ruck agenda in every thread/debate, knock yourself out

"IMHO"

"IMHO"

It seems you both have an 'agenda'.

Best solution is to put each other on ignore.

Enough point scoring/goading and thread derailing.



Thanks!




*Just a reminder from the 28th December:-

Done with wasting my time

Brilliant. Chuck JoT on ignore? JustOneTime vice versa eh?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

This is a very prudent point.

With our bulging salary cap, and more youngsters potentially needing pay upgrades in the foreseeable future, our list management team could be forgiven for recruiting some money ball back up types. The chorus of posters calling for us to trade or draft some very ordinary types “just because”, was long and loud. While we are not averse to picking up mature types, we are recruiting them for potential first team roles (Fantasia), we are not recruiting depth.

The key defender stocks are the most interesting read for me. Sam Durdin was certainly recruited as “cover” first, but I understand Soapy’s view. He is a very talented player who was quit on too early by Norf. They had plenty of tall options at the time, yet were poor at developing them. Fair to say Nigel’s regular soft tissue issues led to him being the one let go. He was one of those juniors who did not have a set position. Mostly key forward, but also playing considerable defence and ruck minutes. He was one of my favourites in his draft year. He went back to the SANFL and played impressive and consistent footy behind the ball. He was absolutely the best key defender on offer in the mid season draft after OMac went down.

Durdin has not been without soft tissue issues in his time with us. He certainly needs to have a very solid 2024 to consolidate his career. At the moment, I do believe his body is the largest barrier to his future tenure at the club. Fair to say at the end of last season, he was ahead of Lewy Young in the pecking order. Young is a conundrum, he is a very talented player, but is mentally fragile and needs to find more focus to hold his spot, despite having a contract until the end of ‘26.

It is very obvious that Durdin is “the man” in our VFL defence, despite the presence of Marchbank, Kemp, Young and Silvagni at times. I don’t have a full understanding of his tactical speed. He does not look quick, but finds his way to contests with little issue. I understand Soapy’s view that he could play beside Weitering, and part of me wonders how effective Weiters would be in a less accountable role. The issue is that all of Gov, Kempy and Marchy are exceptionally mobile and complement Jacob’s position. I also believe that after, perhaps, needing to find a harder edge early in his career, Weitering now thrives on the responsibility of being “the man” in our defence and may be less than keen to relinquish the “key pillar” position.

Clearly the club is not as desperate as the many of us calling for a young KPD option last draft. Weiters has five or more years left as the “custodian”. Similarly Charlie and Harry have long tenure ahead up forward. We have seemingly drafted an option for generation next up forward with Lemmey, potentially Hudson O’Keeffe has claims as a viable forward/ruck type. A few among us, including me, are very much in favour of Lemmey being schooled as a potential defender. His forward nous is somewhat in question to date, with his more impressive moments being further up the ground with some ruck cameos. Young Harry strikes me as one of those who may be more effective playing accountable, being led to the ball than having the onus of trying to create the play forward of the ball. Hopefully he has development time at both ends

We have many structural options with a variety of players both mature and developing. I can admit to being a little “spooked” with Tassie entering the competition in a few years likely to eat up the supply of viable key position players. I have a strong preference for “home grown and developed” players over stocking up through trade so constantly look to the draft. I may need to accept that we are heading in to a successful era, so may well have the option of topping up through trade or free agency in the coming years.

With the possible exception of our small forward pecking order, our tall defence seems to be the most contentious area going forward to the medium term.

It's an interesting situation. I was personally hoping that we drafted another tall in 2023 - although they may see Moir as that hybrid medium sized forward who's strong overhead.

I'm still not 100% convinced with Lemmey right now, although it's still too early to call if he'll make it as a 3rd tall forward/ruck. Needs to put on more size and command presence in the forward half over the next few years - otherwise possibly a defensive role - which then leaves us one short key forward option.

An early look at the this year's draft, and there's not a lot of tall options compared to 2023.....and of course we'll be committed to bringing the Campo's in, so our next pick - if we take one - will likely be late in the draft. So any KPP of any note would likely be gone anyway.

Nigel provides us with that key defensive back up - or as Soapy mentioned, could even find his way into the 22 depending on team balance and the opposition. He's still only 26yo, so probably gives us a bit of breathing space in the key defensive stocks without a pressing need to develop another - and I'm still not convinced that Lewy Young is 'finished' as an option, and only just turned 25yo.

Overall, I reckon we're still 1 short developing KPP. It's not a massive issue right now, but with the compromised drafts on the horizon, it could become a concern. We've got a couple of mids in the Campos', and a running type utility in Duffy arriving the end of the year, so at some stage we definitely need to booster our tall stocks.

 

[JustOneTime]

I think what Carlton need to solve for 2024 is what lever can they pull when Brisbane again forced us out of the corridor in a hard physical final. The corridor is there in home and away matches; but not so easy in a prelim onwards. In that game from Qtr onwards I got the feeling they said no more corridor ball. We bounced down the wing again from defence then booted very high inside 50 balls which saw even Martin fly with Curnow and Mckay. This style saw Coleman wreck us on the counter.

That second half of that final was more reminiscent of round 1-13 than 14 onwards.

We've got the bully boy strength in the middle; it is just about doubling down in that area when faced with tough opposition.

Second to above is that from rounds 14+ onwards we played a hard bruising style of football as we sought to save our pride. That style seems more injury prone a style to me. So i don't think there is a workaround here except rotation and crossing the fingers.

Aside from a few minor tweaks i think we have enough talent to win the flag. Just need to position a home prelim final.

 

[JustaBattler]

I think what Carlton need to solve for 2024 is what lever can they pull when Brisbane again forced us out of the corridor in a hard physical final. The corridor is there in home and away matches; but not so easy in a prelim onwards. In that game from Qtr onwards I got the feeling they said no more corridor ball. We bounced down the wing again from defence then booted very high inside 50 balls which saw even Martin fly with Curnow and Mckay. This style saw Coleman wreck us on the counter.

That second half of that final was more reminiscent of round 1-13 than 14 onwards.

We've got the bully boy strength in the middle; it is just about doubling down in that area when faced with tough opposition.

Second to above is that from rounds 14+ onwards we played a hard bruising style of football as we sought to save our pride. That style seems more injury prone a style to me. So i don't think there is a workaround here except rotation and crossing the fingers.

Aside from a few minor tweaks i think we have enough talent to win the flag. Just need to position a home prelim final.

Brisbane won the lottery playing against an injured Carlton at the Gabba ( I think Melbourne would have beaten them up there) - I wouldn't read too much into that encounter - except that Carlton rucks allowed their ruckman to smash them off the park - that and whoever was supposed to be defending Cameron - didn't.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Brisbane won the lottery playing against an injured Carlton at the Gabba ( I think Melbourne would have beaten them up there) - I wouldn't read too much into that encounter - except that Carlton rucks allowed their ruckman to smash them off the park - that and whoever was supposed to be defending Cameron - didn't.

On the bright side, we'll know by about half time in the first game of next season, whether or not this years Prelim. plan has been corrected.
Brissy negated our strong forwards and then run us off our feet for the rest of the game.
Interesting to see what changes we make with ball transition and forward pressure.

 

[Coona Blues]

It's an interesting situation. I was personally hoping that we drafted another tall in 2023 - although they may see Moir as that hybrid medium sized forward who's strong overhead.

I'm still not 100% convinced with Lemmey right now, although it's still too early to call if he'll make it as a 3rd tall forward/ruck. Needs to put on more size and command presence in the forward half over the next few years - otherwise possibly a defensive role - which then leaves us one short key forward option.

An early look at the this year's draft, and there's not a lot of tall options compared to 2023.....and of course we'll be committed to bringing the Campo's in, so our next pick - if we take one - will likely be late in the draft. So any KPP of any note would likely be gone anyway.

Nigel provides us with that key defensive back up - or as Soapy mentioned, could even find his way into the 22 depending on team balance and the opposition. He's still only 26yo, so probably gives us a bit of breathing space in the key defensive stocks without a pressing need to develop another - and I'm still not convinced that Lewy Young is 'finished' as an option, and only just turned 25yo.

Overall, I reckon we're still 1 short developing KPP. It's not a massive issue right now, but with the compromised drafts on the horizon, it could become a concern. We've got a couple of mids in the Campos', and a running type utility in Duffy arriving the end of the year, so at some stage we definitely need to booster our tall stocks.

Gunna be “that guy” again Sam Durdin turns 28 in June. OK as an option for, say, three years, which would be about the time needed to develop a kid. Bearing in mind Weiters just turned 26, so if he stays fit, we probably have a Marchbank and Kemp unit available for five years or more. McGovern at 29 is a query on tenure. Hard to believe he will go well in to his thirties with his soft tissue injuries. Jury still out regarding Marchy’s long term soundness, but with Nigel and the forgotten man in Lewy Young at 25 in the wings, we potentially are covered until “we are not”.

The biggest problem is our real need to recruit our next number one key defender will coincide with the draft being compromised by Tassie concessions, while we are in a window all but assuring late first rounders are the best we have in the draft. I look at what we currently have on the horizon and wish for Lemmey to become a genuine swingman AND when he rehabs that ACL, Duffy can become a key position option.

If Ashton Moir realises his potential to become a potent mid sized forward option our eventual progression forward will be easier. We need to remember that TDK is a viable option as a key forward as well. Admittedly “King” has been underwhelming forward to date, but I perceived his forward output improved late season in line with his rucking as he matures physically and mentally.

KPD is going to be interesting, but we may have a little longer than we think to sort it.