Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[cruskits]

Via surely runs in the MC now…

 

[Jugada]

Via surely runs in the MC now…

The last place I would send a horse that just won a Cox Plate by 6. Champions Stakes then QE next year and back for another CP. Would be silly to risk cooking the best horse in the country

 

[cruskits]

Into 6’s…. Yeah it’s going to be a massive call.

 

[Lunchtime]

Via Sistina broke Winx's track record for the 2040m

 

[FFB1]

$5 TAB VS Good if you want to take a price JB now (7.2 fair).

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Plate

Optimistic Dog said:
Could sugar lips Waller have a throw at the stumps with Viva Sistina. Meets Buckaroo 2.5 kgs worst for a narrow win in the Turnbull. Buckaroo had the better prep for 3,200 metres both are by Fastnet Rock not noted as a staying sire but both stoutly bred on the dam side with both being from a Galileo dam.

You would think not but VS has recently firmed from 26/1 to 21/1 and taking a line through Buckaroo would have to be a chance even allowing for the distance query.

I would give her less than 2% chance of lining up in the race. Wouldn't make much sense as a gun 2000m horse with the Champion Stakes sitting there if needed post Cox Plate. Plus Waller already has Buckaroo going to the Cup so no need to test both his star middle distance horses. She also doesn't even look like a 2 miler so would be very strange.

Verry Elleegant was already an Oaks, Tancred and CC winner over 2400m before she even contested and lost her first MC

Nah would be next to no chance. The Champions Stakes is sitting there post Cox Plate and Waller already has one of his class WFA horses having a crack

She firmed because people backed her after she dumped the jockey at the Valley and the connections were saying she wouldnt go to the Cox Plate

Optimistic Dog said:
Could sugar lips Waller have a throw at the stumps with Viva Sistina. Meets Buckaroo 2.5 kgs worst for a narrow win in the Turnbull. Buckaroo had the better prep for 3,200 metres both are by Fastnet Rock not noted as a staying sire but both stoutly bred on the dam side with both being from a Galileo dam.

You would think not but VS has recently firmed from 26/1 to 21/1 and taking a line through Buckaroo would have to be a chance even allowing for the distance query.


Very happy I took the 21/1 in the cup and 84/1 with a multi with Orchestral in the Empire Roae $5,200 result for $100 outlay. The win in the Cox Plate was like Dulcify hope there is not the same tragic result. I think Waller as I said early always had the Cup as a possibility. How well weighted does she look now with 56 if the handicaps were done this week she has 58 or 58.5.

She wins if she runs the trip and I thnk she will.

 

[99 Problems]

Would be great for the race if Via went there but would be very unlike Waller. Today only franked the Buckaroo form though if she doesn’t.

 

[Jamz]

Suddenly Jan Brueghel is getting out to a price, we haven't seen him have a run. Although those formlines aren't standing very tall at the moment, at least not here.

 

[Jugada]

I wouldn't take the current odds about Via Sistina to even run in the race never mind win it

 

[2121]

Absolute unders at 4.50 tab, as good as the win was she had absolutely everything go her way today. Lane riding prognosis upside down, poj flat as a tack, broadsiding dropping the bit at the 800.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I wouldn't take the current odds about Via Sistina to even run in the race never mind win it

Yes, you did say there was a less than 2% chance run so that is 50/1. I am very happy with the 21/1 got last week. I cannot see Waller and Yulong turning up the chance to run on a good track with 56 it is luxury weight after 2 group 1 wins the last her best ever performance. When she beat just beat Buckaroo it was a slow track she is lengths better on a good track so not worried about the weight turnaround, she settles well so has every chance to run the distance

 

[pendlebury_10]

The last place I would send a horse that just won a Cox Plate by 6. Champions Stakes then QE next year and back for another CP. Would be silly to risk cooking the best horse in the country

This is absolutely spot on, it has Australian middle distance racing at it’s feet now.

If it goes to the cup there’s every chance it’s never the same horse or even races again (see Incentivise, Without A Fight, Gold Trip etc.)

 

[onthehill24]

This is absolutely spot on, it has Australian middle distance racing at it’s feet now.

If it goes to the cup there’s every chance it’s never the same horse or even races again (see Incentivise, Without A Fight, Gold Trip etc.)

Add
Soulcombe emmisary Shiraz etc

 

[Aussie Assault]

This is absolutely spot on, it has Australian middle distance racing at it’s feet now.

If it goes to the cup there’s every chance it’s never the same horse or even races again (see Incentivise, Without A Fight, Gold Trip etc.)

Depends a bit how long they think she'll be around. She's already 7.. obviously at her absolute peak now after yesterday's performance.

 

[Jugada]

She is 7 here but NH bred so not actually 7. Keep her together and go back to back in the Cox Plate

 

[Jamz]

This is absolutely spot on, it has Australian middle distance racing at it’s feet now.

If it goes to the cup there’s every chance it’s never the same horse or even races again (see Incentivise, Without A Fight, Gold Trip etc.)

I get what you are saying but it's not like running an extra 1200m is going to end a horse's career, it will end her campaign (even if she wins).

Worst case scenario she runs a bottler, they tip her out and give her a long spell and bring her back next year.

They're saying Soulcombe will be back next year.

It also doesn't matter that Waller has Buckaroo, they're probably different owners. It's not like he's a slot holder.

 

[Jamz]

Absolute unders at 4.50 tab, as good as the win was she had absolutely everything go her way today. Lane riding prognosis upside down, poj flat as a tack, broadsiding dropping the bit at the 800.

You'd have been chuffed if you backed Prognosis when he jumped with them, not so chuffed when he elected to sit off the hot tempo.

A lot of things did go her way for her win that space but the way the race was ran, you didn't want to be anything else. That's half the game, predicting how the race will be run and who will benefit. The race was tipped upside down when Prognosis sat behind the speed.

 

[Hamingja]

You'd have been chuffed if you backed Prognosis when he jumped with them, not so chuffed when he elected to sit off the hot tempo.

A lot of things did go her way for her win that space but the way the race was ran, you didn't want to be anything else. That's half the game, predicting how the race will be run and who will benefit. The race was tipped upside down when Prognosis sat behind the speed.

I do wonder if the people that are criticising Lane's ride on Prognosis were also the people that criticised Jmac on VS during the Autumn for letting POJ go. Can't have it both ways. Take the freak performance out and Prognosis wins. Just wasn't good enough to get within cooee of the winner.

 

[Hamingja]

This is absolutely spot on, it has Australian middle distance racing at it’s feet now.

If it goes to the cup there’s every chance it’s never the same horse or even races again (see Incentivise, Without A Fight, Gold Trip etc.)

Who knows how old mate Yulong will look at it. Having a live runner in the cup might be worth more than another $5 million prize money next year to someone like that. Winning the Cox Plate has covered what he paid for it. He is free rolling from here.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Pros for VS to run in cup

Luxury weight 56 now, Very Elleegant carried 57 to win.
Predicted dry track where she performs best on
Flemington even suits her better
The race is of 8.5 million
Yulong has established its empire here why would you not want to win our most famous race.
She is 7yo mare and only has probably one or 2 more campaigns left.
She just wins if she gets the trip.

Cons

The distance.

 

[Hawksboy72]

She has the same weight as So You Think who was a 5x G1 winner & dual Cox Plate winner who got run down in a Cup by American & Maluckyday.

SYT only run beyond the 2040 was his Melbourne Cup.

VS has had 1 run at 2400 and ran last albeit at her 3 start.


On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jugada]

So You Think the closest comparison in recent years and he had a lot more in his favour imo

 

[Jamz]

I don’t like backing horses where a tilt at the Cup is an afterthought and that’s what you’re being asked to do about the top 2 in the market, anything could win it this year.

 

[Lunchtime]

She has the same weight as So You Think who was a 5x G1 winner & dual Cox Plate winner who got run down in a Cup by American & Maluckyday.

SYT only run beyond the 2040 was his Melbourne Cup.

VS has had 1 run at 2400 and ran last albeit at her 3 start.


On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Wrong. So You Think won twice at 2100m in Europe (G1s) and he also finished 4th at 2400m - the Arc.

 

[Lunchtime]

So You Think the closest comparison in recent years and he had a lot more in his favour imo

So You Think faced a higher Cup field though. Americain better stayer and Maluckyday was one of the better locals too.

So You Think a better horse than Via Sistina. The 2024 Cup field is seriously lacking depth. It's a farce.