2024 Ladder Predictions

[Call Me Cake]

Geelong supporters have a lot of West Coast ala 2020 smell about them. Even until the end of 2022 Eagles supporters were refusing to accept that they were on the way down until 2023 finally slammed them into accepting reality. We've seen this movie before.

 

[Mr Meow]

Geelong supporters have a lot of West Coast ala 2020 smell about them. Even until the end of 2022 Eagles supporters were refusing to accept that they were on the way down until 2023 finally slammed them into accepting reality. We've seen this movie before.

Not if you read our board. The 5 optimistic supporters about a modest 2024 bounce back (6th-10th rather than 14th-18th), including me, have all posted in this thread. And we're all ready for the actual cliff in 2025.

 

[JPetro83]

Collingwood
Brisbane
Sydney
Carlton
Melbourne
Port Power
Adelaide
Geelong

GWS
Essendon
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Gold Coast
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Richmond
North
West Coast

 

[HotPiesWithSauce]

This was really difficult and I will most likely be way off, I'm more just going off a vibe than anything. I look forward to having a giggle mid season when I see how wrong these predictions are

Sydney - possible recency bias, really like their additions
Brisbane - can't see much reason for them to fall, haven't lost much and have good combination of youth and stars
Carlton - this is more an indicator of where they should finish with their list, historically though, they tend to disappoint
Port - another team where I like their additions, but the supporter base is so toxic I can't see them achieving success in the near future
Collingwood - back-to-back is really hard, we'll be the hunted, and also I like to moderate my expectations
GWS - yes they looked great at the end of the year, but expect teams to do their homework in the off season
Essendon - they have to improve eventually right? I thought they had a really tough draw the first half of the year, if they get an easier run at it, who knows?
Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again, but should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality

Saints - they were found out this year, but also managed to win despite some key injuries, really hard to place them
Bulldogs - a really good list but I think they needed a new head coach if they were to improve
Melbourne - they just seem to me like a club ready to implode
Gold Coast - really tough to call, have a really exciting list and now have the coach to match, but I've seen them drop away in the second half of the season too many times
Richmond - need to play the youth and take some short term pain for long term gain. New coach buys them a couple seasons out of finals
Hawks - really impressed me how they finished off the season but I'm hesitant to buy into the hype too much
Eagles - eventually they are going to have some luck with injuries and the games they've put into their youngsters are going to start paying off. Taking a shot in the dark and saying that they surprise a few next year
Geelong - Geelong fans are optimistic and rightfully so, the cats never seem to bottom out. But for me, they look headed toward a cliff, without the quality youth to save them this time
Freo - were really disappointing this year and they only got worse in the trade period, can't see them doing well
North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

 

[Rabish Binney]

This was really difficult and I will most likely be way off, I'm more just going off a vibe than anything. I look forward to having a giggle mid season when I see how wrong these predictions are

Sydney - possible recency bias, really like their additions
Brisbane - can't see much reason for them to fall, haven't lost much and have good combination of youth and stars
Carlton - this is more an indicator of where they should finish with their list, historically though, they tend to disappoint
Port - another team where I like their additions, but the supporter base is so toxic I can't see them achieving success in the near future
Collingwood - back-to-back is really hard, we'll be the hunted, and also I like to moderate my expectations
GWS - yes they looked great at the end of the year, but expect teams to do their homework in the off season
Essendon - they have to improve eventually right? I thought they had a really tough draw the first half of the year, if they get an easier run at it, who knows?
Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again, but should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality

Saints - they were found out this year, but also managed to win despite some key injuries, really hard to place them
Bulldogs - a really good list but I think they needed a new head coach if they were to improve
Melbourne - they just seem to me like a club ready to implode
Gold Coast - really tough to call, have a really exciting list and now have the coach to match, but I've seen them drop away in the second half of the season too many times
Richmond - need to play the youth and take some short term pain for long term gain. New coach buys them a couple seasons out of finals
Hawks - really impressed me how they finished off the season but I'm hesitant to buy into the hype too much
Eagles - eventually they are going to have some luck with injuries and the games they've put into their youngsters are going to start paying off. Taking a shot in the dark and saying that they surprise a few next year
Geelong - Geelong fans are optimistic and rightfully so, the cats never seem to bottom out. But for me, they look headed toward a cliff, without the quality youth to save them this time
Freo - were really disappointing this year and they only got worse in the trade period, can't see them doing well
North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again

We lost our 2 best defenders (Murray & Dodee) to ACL's and our full back (Butts) missed a 3rd of the season.

That dream run?

 

[joegreen]

North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

2023

EDIT

Here is the 2024 projection

 

[HotPiesWithSauce]

Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again

We lost our 2 best defenders (Murray & Dodee) to ACL's and our full back (Butts) missed a 3rd of the season.

That dream run?

Well maybe dream run was the wrong choice of words, but relative to most other teams

 

[Haggas]

This was really difficult and I will most likely be way off, I'm more just going off a vibe than anything. I look forward to having a giggle mid season when I see how wrong these predictions are

Sydney - possible recency bias, really like their additions
Brisbane - can't see much reason for them to fall, haven't lost much and have good combination of youth and stars
Carlton - this is more an indicator of where they should finish with their list, historically though, they tend to disappoint
Port - another team where I like their additions, but the supporter base is so toxic I can't see them achieving success in the near future
Collingwood - back-to-back is really hard, we'll be the hunted, and also I like to moderate my expectations
GWS - yes they looked great at the end of the year, but expect teams to do their homework in the off season
Essendon - they have to improve eventually right? I thought they had a really tough draw the first half of the year, if they get an easier run at it, who knows?
Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again, but should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality

Saints - they were found out this year, but also managed to win despite some key injuries, really hard to place them
Bulldogs - a really good list but I think they needed a new head coach if they were to improve
Melbourne - they just seem to me like a club ready to implode
Gold Coast - really tough to call, have a really exciting list and now have the coach to match, but I've seen them drop away in the second half of the season too many times
Richmond - need to play the youth and take some short term pain for long term gain. New coach buys them a couple seasons out of finals
Hawks - really impressed me how they finished off the season but I'm hesitant to buy into the hype too much
Eagles - eventually they are going to have some luck with injuries and the games they've put into their youngsters are going to start paying off. Taking a shot in the dark and saying that they surprise a few next year
Geelong - Geelong fans are optimistic and rightfully so, the cats never seem to bottom out. But for me, they look headed toward a cliff, without the quality youth to save them this time
Freo - were really disappointing this year and they only got worse in the trade period, can't see them doing well
North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

How are we toxic? because we want a new coach after 11 years of no success?

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

1. GWS
2. Brisbane
3. St Kilda
4. Carlton
5. Gold Coast
6. Collingwood
7. Melbourne
8. Adelaide
--------------------
9. Essendon
10. Port Adelaide
11.Sydney
12. Fremantle
13. Bulldogs
14. Geelong
15. Richmond
16. Hawthorn
17. North
18. West Coast

RtB to turn Paddy Dow into prime Judd in 6 weeks

 

[adammania9]

Where does St Kilda’s improvement come from to take them to Top 4?

Owens, Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera, Sharman, Caminiti, Windhager, Marshall, Higgins, King, Stocker. They've got a fine list.

 

[Mr Meow]

Owens, Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera, Sharman, Caminiti, Windhager, Marshall, Higgins, King, Stocker. They've got a fine list.

Not a dissimilar profile to Freo. A blip year before taking the next step wouldn't be a surprise at all.

 

[Swanssince91]

1. Brisbane
2. Carlton
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Bulldogs
6. Melbourne
7. Gold Coast
8. Adelaide
9. GWS
10. Port
11. St Kilda
12. Geelong
13. Richmond
14. Fremantle
15. Essendon
16. North Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. West Coast

 

[HBFlanker]

1. Brisbane
2. Collingwood
3. GWS
4. Carlton
5. Adelaide
6. Melbourne
7. Port
8. Bulldogs
----------
9. Geelong
10. Fremantle
11. Sydney
12. Gold Coast
13. Hawthorn
14. St Kilda
15. Essendon
16. Richmond
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast

I reckon Freo pushes top 6 2025 though. For 2024 still missing some experience and a couple of pieces of the puzzle.

Fremantle will be bottom 4 next year for mine.

One injury to either Brayshaw or Serong and its curtains.

 

[blueiris]

1. Brisbane
2. GWS
3. W.Bulldogs
4. Carlton
5. Melbourne
6. Collingwood
7. Sydney
8. Gold Coast

9. Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Port Adelaide
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. St. Kilda
15. Hawthorn
16. North Melbourne
17. Fremantle
18. West Coast

Really nice top 8 and great finals match ups in week 1 would love to see Dees vs Crom though

 

[BrutThough]

Where does St Kilda’s improvement come from to take them to Top 4?

Biggest thing to improve us would be getting full seasons from King and Membrey. We are much stronger when they play together and we only got 2 games of that this year. And King was struggling to run the game at that point.

Not sure it would be enough to get top 4 but it would be a massive upgrade from the set up which got us into finals.

 

[#gosaintas]

This was really difficult and I will most likely be way off, I'm more just going off a vibe than anything. I look forward to having a giggle mid season when I see how wrong these predictions are

Sydney - possible recency bias, really like their additions
Brisbane - can't see much reason for them to fall, haven't lost much and have good combination of youth and stars
Carlton - this is more an indicator of where they should finish with their list, historically though, they tend to disappoint
Port - another team where I like their additions, but the supporter base is so toxic I can't see them achieving success in the near future
Collingwood - back-to-back is really hard, we'll be the hunted, and also I like to moderate my expectations
GWS - yes they looked great at the end of the year, but expect teams to do their homework in the off season
Essendon - they have to improve eventually right? I thought they had a really tough draw the first half of the year, if they get an easier run at it, who knows?
Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again, but should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality

Saints - they were found out this year, but also managed to win despite some key injuries, really hard to place them
Bulldogs - a really good list but I think they needed a new head coach if they were to improve
Melbourne - they just seem to me like a club ready to implode
Gold Coast - really tough to call, have a really exciting list and now have the coach to match, but I've seen them drop away in the second half of the season too many times
Richmond - need to play the youth and take some short term pain for long term gain. New coach buys them a couple seasons out of finals
Hawks - really impressed me how they finished off the season but I'm hesitant to buy into the hype too much
Eagles - eventually they are going to have some luck with injuries and the games they've put into their youngsters are going to start paying off. Taking a shot in the dark and saying that they surprise a few next year
Geelong - Geelong fans are optimistic and rightfully so, the cats never seem to bottom out. But for me, they look headed toward a cliff, without the quality youth to save them this time
Freo - were really disappointing this year and they only got worse in the trade period, can't see them doing well
North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

Saints were found out? Most had us finishing bottom 4 and we finished 6th with a crappy injury list and the youngest team in the finals...but yeah, found out.

 

[Giant Pete]

Owens, Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera, Sharman, Caminiti, Windhager, Marshall, Higgins, King, Stocker. They've got a fine list.

Wait… stocker???

 

[Sully111]

I don't see where you've improved the list over the summer enough to move up, you don't have a great draft hand and you've lost a few fringe type players(Billings, Gresham, Coffield).
Ross was lamenting the state of the list late in the year, and has only added Dow and Henry who aren't going to move the needle very much.
How are you pushing passed so many to make the top 4?

Our improvement will come from Owens, Windhager, Wanganeen-milera, Phillipou having another year under their belt

Max King not being injured most of the season.

Ross Lyon having had a year with the group

Jack Steele getting back to his best.

 

[Mr Meow]

Our improvement will come from Owens, Windhager, Wanganeen-milera, Phillipou having another year under their belt

Max King not being injured most of the season.

Ross Lyon having had a year with the group

Jack Steele getting back to his best.

Steele seems like Dahlhaus in his Geelong days - good for tackling but not much else. At least compared to his peak.

Improvement isn't always linear with young players. But those guys could all improve and you still finish in a worse position (maybe role players output is worse, maybe the fixture ends up tougher).

Freo seemed certainties to improve on 2022 with their young list and it didn't happen right away.

 

[Sully111]

Steele seems like Dahlhaus in his Geelong days - good for tackling but not much else. At least compared to his peak.

Improvement isn't always linear with young players. But those guys could all improve and you still finish in a worse position (maybe role players output is worse, maybe the fixture ends up tougher).

Freo seemed certainties to improve on 2022 with their young list and it didn't happen right away.

I'm happy to back them in... along with King and Lyon

I guess we'll see

 

[almuz]

Normally 3 teams drop out of the 8 from the previous season and a team outside the 8 jumps into the top 4 so:

1. Lions - will bank a lot of wins at home
2. Pies - still strong
3. Swans - good young core with nice additions
4. Crows - underwhelming trade period but natural progression should net them a fair few more road wins

5. Blues - feel like a momentum team rather than having a consistent and repeatable formula for bulk H&A wins
6. GWS - stars won't be around forever but love their backline
7. Suns - I am a believer they SHOULD be good, just need to turn home ground into a fortress
8. Port - good ins, might lack a few fringe contributors though

9. Saints - solid and will bank wins with RTB
10. Dees - implode despite their great cultcha
11. Bombers - pretty meh on them - depends on their draw
12. Hawks - 3rd year of the system, I think we come on pretty fast
13. Dogs - don't see them getting better
14. Cats - will win a few with Cameron/Hawk/Messi at KP
15. Tigers - maybe an early season new coach bounce but otherwise looks dire
16. North - better list but still need to learn how to win
17. Dockers - Don't like their game style or the bottom 10 or so in their 22
18. WCE - still pretty grim but less 100+ floggings

 

[FlyHigh18]

Normally 3 teams drop out of the 8 from the previous season and a team outside the 8 jumps into the top 4 so:

1. Lions - will bank a lot of wins at home
2. Pies - still strong
3. Swans - good young core with nice additions
4. Crows - underwhelming trade period but natural progression should net them a fair few more road wins

5. Blues - feel like a momentum team rather than having a consistent and repeatable formula for bulk H&A wins
6. GWS - stars won't be around forever but love their backline
7. Suns - I am a believer they SHOULD be good, just need to turn home ground into a fortress
8. Port - good ins, might lack a few fringe contributors though

9. Saints - solid and will bank wins with RTB
10. Dees - implode despite their great cultcha
11. Bombers - pretty meh on them - depends on their draw
12. Hawks - 3rd year of the system, I think we come on pretty fast
13. Dogs - don't see them getting better
14. Cats - will win a few with Cameron/Hawk/Messi at KP
15. Tigers - maybe an early season new coach bounce but otherwise looks dire
16. North - better list but still need to learn how to win
17. Dockers - Don't like their game style or the bottom 10 or so in their 22
18. WCE - still pretty grim but less 100+ floggings

^^ one of the better and realistic predictions I've scrolled past so far. Nice work!

 

[Obeanie1]

Geelong supporters have a lot of West Coast ala 2020 smell about them. Even until the end of 2022 Eagles supporters were refusing to accept that they were on the way down until 2023 finally slammed them into accepting reality. We've seen this movie before.

Talk about making stuff up.

Eagles supporters with half a brain have been saying we were done at the end of 2020.

Split our 1st rounders in 2021 and 2022. And started hitting the drafts since. Not difficult to understand.

 

[Obeanie1]

Normally 3 teams drop out of the 8 from the previous season and a team outside the 8 jumps into the top 4 so:

1. Lions - will bank a lot of wins at home
2. Pies - still strong
3. Swans - good young core with nice additions
4. Crows - underwhelming trade period but natural progression should net them a fair few more road wins

5. Blues - feel like a momentum team rather than having a consistent and repeatable formula for bulk H&A wins
6. GWS - stars won't be around forever but love their backline
7. Suns - I am a believer they SHOULD be good, just need to turn home ground into a fortress
8. Port - good ins, might lack a few fringe contributors though

9. Saints - solid and will bank wins with RTB
10. Dees - implode despite their great cultcha
11. Bombers - pretty meh on them - depends on their draw
12. Hawks - 3rd year of the system, I think we come on pretty fast
13. Dogs - don't see them getting better
14. Cats - will win a few with Cameron/Hawk/Messi at KP
15. Tigers - maybe an early season new coach bounce but otherwise looks dire
16. North - better list but still need to learn how to win
17. Dockers - Don't like their game style or the bottom 10 or so in their 22
18. WCE - still pretty grim but less 100+ floggings

No way Freo finish 17th. More likely Hawks finish there.

Bottom 3 will be the same most likely. Richmond may end 16th.

 

[My Tilly]

^^ one of the better and realistic predictions I've scrolled past so far. Nice work!

It's a horrible prediction.
There's no way in hell Port Adelaide barely scrape into eighth position. They will be one of the strongest teams in 2024.
Butters will be the best midfielder in the competition and they now have key defenders so the run-and-carry from half back is going to be like what we saw from Collingwood.

And Melbourne 10th but Gold Coast 7th?