Strategy 2024 Planning Thread

[jdstorm]

You're talking as if the $200k to $350k bracket is full of stars. This year, if you started 2 or 3 of Flanders, Bruhn, etc you were on the backfoot all season.

And if you started with Hopper, Ziebell, Setterfield, Day, NWM, Worpel, Owens ect that’s 7 premos or 1 trade to premos for 2.5M 9 if you include Ashcroft and Sheezel who both topped 500k

11 premos + 9 of these midpricers/expensive rookies and you started with close to a complete team.

So the strategy isn’t wrong you just picked the wrong players. Bruhn and Flanders didn’t have the role people hoped. Max homes was the Geelong mid to benefit from Selwoods retirement, and Flanders eventually got mid time and cracked 500k

Also having players already at 300k means any mistakes can be combined and upgraded to any early fallen premiums or breakout candidates in the 500k range.

So it gives you an out to start trading early if these players disappoint.

 

[rye]

There is a good reason why non of them have been mentioned. Second year players can be underwhelming sometimes and hoping for a breakout year normally dosen't happen unless they are a gun like Daicos or Sheezle. It will be intersting to see how coaches approach next year with not many decent Midpricers under $400k next year.

guns and rookies

do not want to get burnt on speculative crap picks like bruhn again

having said that, sweet is awfully tempting....

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

And if you started with Hopper, Ziebell, Setterfield, Day, NWM, Worpel, Owens ect that’s 7 premos or 1 trade to premos for 2.5M 9 if you include Ashcroft and Sheezel who both topped 500k

11 premos + 9 of these midpricers/expensive rookies and you started with close to a complete team.

So the strategy isn’t wrong you just picked the wrong players. Bruhn and Flanders didn’t have the role people hoped. Max homes was the Geelong mid to benefit from Selwoods retirement, and Flanders eventually got mid time and cracked 500k

Also having players already at 300k means any mistakes can be combined and upgraded to any early fallen premiums or breakout candidates in the 500k range.

So it gives you an out to start trading early if these players disappoint.

No offence but it's easy to pick the correct mid-pricers after the season is finished. It's not easy at all to do it before the season, and I highly doubt anyone started all those that you named.

MPM is a high risk, high reward strategy.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

That’s a huge spend in defence.

I am going to play different next year and take more of a chance down forward at the start.

 

[jdstorm]

No offence but it's easy to pick the correct mid-pricers after the season is finished. It's not easy at all to do it before the season, and I highly doubt anyone started all those that you named.

MPM is a high risk, high reward strategy.

It’s not midpriced madness, it’s just reframing how much a cash cow can cost. It’s the idea that any player who can make you 150k is a rookie.

This is possible largely due to the extra trades we have gotten. You can afford to go in with less Premos.

I started Hunter Clark, Homes, Hopper, Setterfield, Fyfe, Ziebell, Calahan, Ashcroft and Sheezel

I’d say I went 7/9 successful picks and was able to correct the other 2. Went 1 up 1 down and bought in Daicos and a rookie for Fyfe and Clark.

Ended up finishing top 2k and was in the top 1000 most of the year.

Trying to start complete is what more people will be doing going forward. The key is volume. If you get say 6/10 correct you can use 4 trades to get 2 actual premos (counts as upgrades) and 2 rookies (rookie corrections)

 

[stevebbb]

The forward situation is going to be so interesting next year.

Likely that the top 8 forwards from this season won't be available in that position in 2024.

A safe option nobody is mentioning is Dylan Moore. He's the one player who we know will have an identical role to this season. He started off slowly after averaging 94 in 2022, but came home strongly to average 91 for the duration.
117, 120, 90 and 102 in the final month of the season too.

Priced at around $500k, he's probably as safe as you'll get considering the lack of premium mids we'll have forward access to.

There's a lot of 90-95 average players around the $500k mark you can pick. The issue is if we end up getting a heap of DPP changes in rd6 and rd12, your FWD line might look very lacklustre. Also if you wait, you get to see what happens, who is scoring well, who is on track for DPP change, etc.

Moore is a good little player. I think I'd prefer Toby Greene for a similar price though.

 

[Sphynx]

Sanders and McKercher will have similar scoring potential to Ashcroft imo.

Reid will have the same risks as JHF did imo, I think he gets bursts in the middle rather than games, his endurance testing is pretty average.

I wouldn't be touching Duursma, he's guaranteed to be played as a marking medium forward for the first year or so imo.

Rogers a smoky imo.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

It’s not midpriced madness, it’s just reframing how much a cash cow can cost. It’s the idea that any player who can make you 150k is a rookie.

This is possible largely due to the extra trades we have gotten. You can afford to go in with less Premos.

I started Hunter Clark, Homes, Hopper, Setterfield, Fyfe, Ziebell, Calahan, Ashcroft and Sheezel

I’d say I went 7/9 successful picks and was able to correct the other 2. Went 1 up 1 down and bought in Daicos and a rookie for Fyfe and Clark.

Ended up finishing top 2k and was in the top 1000 most of the year.

Trying to start complete is what more people will be doing going forward. The key is volume. If you get say 6/10 correct you can use 4 trades to get 2 actual premos (counts as upgrades) and 2 rookies (rookie corrections)

It's a perfectly valid tactic, and if you pull it off will put you well ahead of the pack.

Just imo but I'd say only Ziebell was a win of those you listed, maybe Holmes. Ashcroft and Sheezel are rookies. Hopper, Setters and possibly Callaghan are 50/50 and the others duds.

 

[jdstorm]

It's a perfectly valid tactic, and if you pull it off will put you well ahead of the pack.

Just imo but I'd say only Ziebell was a win of those you listed, maybe Holmes. Ashcroft and Sheezel are rookies. Hopper, Setters and possibly Callaghan are 50/50 and the others duds.

I started with Setters so I got the 150 point game 1. Ended up getting 90k for him and basically sideswiped him to cogs at around 450k so I’d call that a big win.

Calahagn ended the season at >400k so if you were patient he ended up being a good pick. (I wasn’t patient, traded him out around 350 for an early upgrade so I made about 90k and got to an underpriced premium in a 2/1 trade. Given the extra points on field I would call that a neutral experience.

Holmes: very frustrating. Held on too long hoping to get to the bye probably lost the gains I got those final few weeks so it’s neutral with what could have been. Neutral but frustrating and on never again list.

Hopper: traded out early on his injury point chasing Mason wood while high on having too many trades. So that’s a fail for me but was a good pick for others.

So I’d say out of the 9 players in that range I chose I had 7 neutral or better results and 2 duds which I corrected. Turned into Daicos + Chandler ( I think)

Given that you have up to 6 rookie correction trades before price changes you can do a lot of fixing and going 1 up 1 down counts as an upgrade so it doesn’t feel like a wasted trade

 

[Northernsoul74]

Sanders and McKercher will have similar scoring potential to Ashcroft imo.

Reid will have the same risks as JHF did imo, I think he gets bursts in the middle rather than games, his endurance testing is pretty average.

I wouldn't be touching Duursma, he's guaranteed to be played as a marking medium forward for the first year or so imo.

Rogers a smoky imo.

Hmmm Sanders and McKercher could also be a Josh Ward.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I might be getting sucked into midpricers again but I like the follow for the moment


Sheldrick 300k - 4 game avg of 89 when on injured/sub with 30-50% cbas. Think Parker might end up forward more next year but we'll see.

James Jordan 280k - New club, will consider if he gets a starting CBA role. 130 avg in VFL or sumn.

Theres no real urgency to pick these two but they will make money. I am more interested in Sheldricks development as he is a young pig.

Sweet 270k - See what Port do in the ruck, but its too much value to pass up and can comfortably field for that price.

As for Sanders/McKercher, their disp for the Allies is crazy high in u18 champs (35 and 32). I haven't seen them play so can't comment, but will certainly be must watches.

I'd be happy to pick 6 defenders and 6 midfielders this year but the forward line is gross outside of Flanders for now (unless Grundy gets DPP). Baz isnt a walk up pick if he remains at the dogs.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Goldy leaving North.
Xerri priced at 79.2 from 9 games.
Probably gonna be a bit too awkward with Grundy and Sweet options either side of that price.

 

[Sphynx]

Hmmm Sanders and McKercher could also be a Josh Ward.

And why would they be the next Josh Ward?

 

[A Bit Dusty]

And why would they be the next Josh Ward?

I think he means held back early with low TOG and then given a rest in the VFL

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I might be getting sucked into midpricers again but I like the follow for the moment


Sheldrick 300k - 4 game avg of 89 when on injured/sub with 30-50% cbas. Think Parker might end up forward more next year but we'll see.

James Jordan 280k - New club, will consider if he gets a starting CBA role. 130 avg in VFL or sumn.

Theres no real urgency to pick these two but they will make money. I am more interested in Sheldricks development as he is a young pig.

Sweet 270k - See what Port do in the ruck, but its too much value to pass up and can comfortably field for that price.

As for Sanders/McKercher, their disp for the Allies is crazy high in u18 champs (35 and 32). I haven't seen them play so can't comment, but will certainly be must watches.

I'd be happy to pick 6 defenders and 6 midfielders this year but the forward line is gross outside of Flanders for now (unless Grundy gets DPP). Baz isnt a walk up pick if he remains at the dogs.

No $300k mid price break outs this year Jords. Margin for error is just too fine at that price. Just jump on if they look the goods after a month or so.

I hate Crazy Bevo so much (so so so much) but Macrae priced @ 100 is probably a pretty safe bet to be a top 6 forward.

I think he means held back early with low TOG and then given a rest in the VFL

Quite a few mouths to feed at North now - LDU, Simpkin, TT, Sheeze, Wardlaw, maybe Phillips and Powell. In a team that's going to get beaten most weeks so limited SC points available.

 

[stevebbb]

Kozi requested a trade to the Tigers.

Should mean Gibcus plays down back for sure now.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Kozi requested a trade to the Tigers.

Should mean Gibcus plays down back for sure now.

Gibcus is a genuine Backman and it will be interesting to see where they play Balta

 

[rye]

Gibcus is a genuine Backman and it will be interesting to see where they play Balta

can young, balta, gibcus and grimes all coexist in the same backline?

 

[stevebbb]

Rich retiring as expected

Kiddy Coleman

Thanks for the reminder Kiddy. Welcome back into the side.

Witherden or Himmelberg down to Coleman, pocket some cash.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Thanks for the reminder Kiddy. Welcome back into the side.

Witherden or Himmelberg down to Coleman, pocket some cash.

Yes I think Kiddy and Walsh are 2 locks for next season

 

[Hamez]

Premiership captain!! Lock for ‘24

 

[Blackhawk42]

Gibcus is a genuine Backman and it will be interesting to see where they play Balta

Gibcus to Hawthorn as part of the Kosi trade

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Well, at least there's no Brownlow curse hanging over Bont for next year I guess.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

8 games @ 40 this year, so priced about $220k. Unlikely he's moving to play VFL. Might be worth it depending on what DEF rookies are viable

 

[jdstorm]

8 games @ 40 this year, so priced about $220k. Unlikely he's moving to play VFL. Might be worth it depending on what DEF rookies are viable

If he gets Will Days old role as Day plays mostly midfield now that’s a lock. He’s a great user of the ball and he will get lots of chances on that hawks team