Prediction 2024 Prediction Thread

2024 Top 8

  • Adelaide

  • Brisbane Lions

  • Carlton

  • Collingwood

  • Essendon

  • Fremantle

  • Geelong

  • Gold Coast SUNS

  • GWS

  • Hawthorn

  • Melbourne

  • North Melbourne

  • Port Adelaide

  • Richmond

  • St Kilda

  • Sydney

  • West Coast

  • Western Bulldogs

Results are only viewable after voting.

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Willsy10 said:
Why are so many port fans putting the crows in their top 4? I'm still struggling to work out where there massive improvement is coming from. I had them 7th and even that i thought was a stretch, that was highly influenced by the hype around town and on this forum.
Click to expand...
They have an arrogance, a belief that defies the reality. Player for player it is an ordinary squad, but they fight, they scrap and they never give up, and all they have to do is get the ball to that forward line and they do the rest. For mine, they played 2023 a LOT like Port in 2013. They just didn't get the results. I personally expect they'll be right up there. Do I think they're a premiership threat, no. However I do believe they might win enough games to put them in the mix.

They also beat us twice last year and all indications are they probably have our measure again this year. So hard to see the exact opposite to your statement, and how some people think we're better?
 
TeeKray said:
Do they need massive improvement? Look at their record against the top 4 last year. Beat Port twice, beat Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Collingwood twice, lost narrowly to Melbourne once. Their form stacks up against the good teams and unlike us they're very difficult to beat at home so you can lock in the best part of 13 wins right away.
Click to expand...

Also, the first game against Collingwood they should have received a free in their forward fifty - no guarantee they win but this year they may get the benefit of the 50/50 calls. Lost to swans at home due to an incorrect goal umpire call.
Chances are they win 4-5 more games this year, better fitness team and better coached.
Personally I think we will struggle to make the 8, hope I’m wrong but we got lucky in some games on that 13 game streak last year. We rely on moments of brilliance from random players, not on game plan or team cohesion.
 
Coobk001 said:
They have an arrogance, a belief that defies the reality. Player for player it is an ordinary squad, but they fight, they scrap and they never give up, and all they have to do is get the ball to that forward line and they do the rest. For mine, they played 2023 a LOT like Port in 2013. They just didn't get the results. I personally expect they'll be right up there. Do I think they're a premiership threat, no. However I do believe they might win enough games to put them in the mix.

They also beat us twice last year and all indications are they probably have our measure again this year. So hard to see the exact opposite to your statement, and how some people think we're better?
Click to expand...

Taylor Walker had a season that was from the top shelf, probably is career best season which defied logic for a key forward to have a career best year at his age. I think he can still be handy for another 1 or 2 years but I don’t think he can back up his 2023.

Thilthorpe out for the first 6 weeks or so is not great for them either, and I still think Fogarty is a bit flakey.

They beat us twice but we won 6 more games than them all up. They definitely seem to play well against us and their game plan worries us, they nearly beat us in 2021 when we were top 2 and they were near the bottom. And 2022 they beat us after the siren. It’s a concern but last year they got us at the best possible time for them.




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I can't see the Crom near the Top 4. Where is their improvement coming from. They played pretty much to the extent of their ability last year and didn't make the 8. They are anywhere from 7 - 13 for me.
 
A ladder wow this will be difficult because I usually can only find 5 teams good enough to make the top 8

1. Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Collingwood
4. GWS
5. Carlton
6. Port Adelaide
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Melbourne
9. Gold Coast
10. St Kilda
11. Adelaide
12 Hawthorn
13. Geelong
14. Fremantle
15. Essendon
16. Richmond
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast

Only way a non-Vic team wins is versus another non-Vic team.
Brownlow Top 3 Bontempelli, Rozee, Warner
 
1. Brisbane
2. Port Adelaide
3. Collingwood
4. GWS
5. Melbourne
6. Carlton
7. Adelaide
8. Sydney
-
9. Gold Coast Suns
10. St Kilda
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Geelong
13. Richmond
14. North Melbourne
15. Hawthorn
16. Fremantle
17. Essendon
18. West Coast




GF & Premiers: Port Adelaide
Wooden Spooner: West Coast
Brownlow: Connor Rozee
Coleman: Nick Larkey
 
TeeKray said:
Do they need massive improvement? Look at their record against the top 4 last year. Beat Port twice, beat Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Collingwood twice, lost narrowly to Melbourne once. Their form stacks up against the good teams and unlike us they're very difficult to beat at home so you can lock in the best part of 13 wins right away.
Click to expand...

But they only won 11 games all up, and would’ve needed 16 or 17 to make top 4 last year. That requires a fair bit of improvement.


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Willsy10 said:
Taylor Walker had a season that was from the top shelf, probably is career best season which defied logic for a key forward to have a career best year at his age. I think he can still be handy for another 1 or 2 years but I don’t think he can back up his 2023.

Thilthorpe out for the first 6 weeks or so is not great for them either, and I still think Fogarty is a bit flakey.

They beat us twice but we won 6 more games than them all up. They definitely seem to play well against us and their game plan worries us, they nearly beat us in 2021 when we were top 2 and they were near the bottom. And 2022 they beat us after the siren. It’s a concern but last year they got us at the best possible time for them.




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Click to expand...
We won 5 games by 7 or less. 2 of those were pure flukes with after the siren moments going our way. We could easily have lost all of them.

Then not only did we lose to the Crows twice, but our percentage was worse. We had the 6th highest percentage despite our W/L, we also we lost 2 finals easily. Our result in finals was totally predictable, we over performed. We can easily go 1 of 2 ways from here. The rise and wins will be demonstrated to be because of ability this year and we could replicate the same wins but be more convincing, a lot like the Collingwood 2022 to 2023 model. Alternatively, we could be sitting here at the end of the year, like we have after many Hinkley seasons saying that the flukes in 2023 were exactly the flukes they looked like, and we are truly that 5-8 team.

So far we've seen no real improvement in our squad. I'm worried about the youth of our gun midfield and that they need more years to be ready. Wines is the absolute key to that groups success.

On the other hand the Crows lost 5 games by under a goal, 1 wasn't even a real loss. They demonstrated enough of that intangible stuff I talked about above that I can absolutely see them turning those results around. Unlike us, they rarely lose at AO. They have made that place a fortress, whilst we just beat up on s**t teams at home and then struggle in prime time.

Who knows how the year will go, but I'm happy with my prediction. I hope I'm wrong, I hope we're this years surprise that comes up and wins the flag, but I don't see it. We're too stale, we're too scarred emotionally, we don't have that confidence or arrogance, and we have a fundamentally flawed game plan.
 
TeeKray said:
Do they need massive improvement? Look at their record against the top 4 last year. Beat Port twice, beat Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Brisbane once, lost narrowly to Collingwood twice, lost narrowly to Melbourne once. Their form stacks up against the good teams and unlike us they're very difficult to beat at home so you can lock in the best part of 13 wins right away.
Click to expand...
They won against Hawthorn by 3 points. And we had a better record than Adelaide at home for the 2023 regular season (they lost four times, we lost three times - twice to Adelaide).
 
Coobk001 said:
We won 5 games by 7 or less. 2 of those were pure flukes with after the siren moments going our way. We could easily have lost all of them.

Then not only did we lose to the Crows twice, but our percentage was worse. We had the 6th highest percentage despite our W/L, we also we lost 2 finals easily. Our result in finals was totally predictable, we over performed. We can easily go 1 of 2 ways from here. The rise and wins will be demonstrated to be because of ability this year and we could replicate the same wins but be more convincing, a lot like the Collingwood 2022 to 2023 model. Alternatively, we could be sitting here at the end of the year, like we have after many Hinkley seasons saying that the flukes in 2023 were exactly the flukes they looked like, and we are truly that 5-8 team.

So far we've seen no real improvement in our squad. I'm worried about the youth of our gun midfield and that they need more years to be ready. Wines is the absolute key to that groups success.

On the other hand the Crows lost 5 games by under a goal, 1 wasn't even a real loss. They demonstrated enough of that intangible stuff I talked about above that I can absolutely see them turning those results around. Unlike us, they rarely lose at AO. They have made that place a fortress, whilst we just beat up on s**t teams at home and then struggle in prime time.

Who knows how the year will go, but I'm happy with my prediction. I hope I'm wrong, I hope we're this years surprise that comes up and wins the flag, but I don't see it. We're too stale, we're too scarred emotionally, we don't have that confidence or arrogance, and we have a fundamentally flawed game plan.
Click to expand...
Isn't winning close games better than losing close games? It just doesn't really make sensed to me that the crows are going to be good this year because they lost a heap of close games last year and we are going to struggle because we won a heap. The only logic i can see in that is that you think all close games are decided by luck. But even if the crows won every single one of those games they lost by under a goal they still would've finished below us.

and as Janus mentioned there record at home was worse than us last year.

And i don't understand how last year is considered a fluke for us when it was actually our second lowest finish in 4 seasons.
 
I guess what people see with the Crows is steady improvement. Under Nicks they have improved every year since the rock bottom of 2020. That doesn't guarantee anything of course but it does give you some confidence in what they're doing.

The reality with us is that we had our chance in 2020/2021 and we cocked it up deluxe. We have looked increasingly less likely to win finals and challenge ever since, irrespective of ladder position. We are presently being kept afloat by an outstanding young midfield that has the potential to be one of the best the game has ever seen. But if you look closely the rest of the team is in transition and would be closer to bottom 4 than top 4 without the uplift of the superb midfield. That's why nobody rates us.
 
Willsy10 said:
Isn't winning close games better than losing close games? It just doesn't really make sensed to me that the crows are going to be good this year because they lost a heap of close games last year and we are going to struggle because we won a heap. The only logic i can see in that is that you think all close games are decided by luck. But even if the crows won every single one of those games they lost by under a goal they still would've finished below us.
Click to expand...
Close games absolutely involve luck. Kicking straight. The bounce of a ball. Facing the right teams at the right time, there's all sorts that play into it. Great teams have a steely resolve and find a way to win them of course, but we have demonstrated over several years we generally aren't good in close ones, so one outlier year doesn't say we're suddenly a great team.

Importantly as a result we can't claim we were some juggernaut when all signs say we got incredibly lucky with those close ones. And then on the other hand we can't say that well the rising other team, that got unlucky, was no good. It just doesn't make sense to me. If that logic makes sense to you then good for you. Meanwhile I believe Tredrea's comments lit a fire under this team that only things like new coaches usually do, and I think that has well and truly worn off now and I'm not sure we will be able to lift ourselves again to the level required to get to the top. We're too stale. I predict around 15 wins for us, which is still good, but I don't see us improving while other teams last year started to look like going past us and I think the Crows are likely to be one of them. I hope I'm wrong, but that is what my gut tells me.
 

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AFL CAPTAINS’ SURVEY: FULL PREDICTIONS FOR 2024 SEASON

Which seven other clubs do you think can make this year’s top eight? (18 times seven selections).

17 – Collingwood
16 – Brisbane
15 – Carlton, GWS GIANTS
14 – Melbourne, Sydney Swans
10 – Adelaide Crows
7 – Port Adelaide
6 – Western Bulldogs
4 – Gold Coast SUNS
3 – St Kilda
2 – Geelong Cats
1 – Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond

Which other club is most likely to reach the Grand Final? (No captains picked eventual premier Collingwood in 2023).
9 – Brisbane Lions
6 – Collingwood
3 – GWS GIANTS

Which player from another club do you think will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal? (Three captains correctly nominated Lachie Neale in 2023).
10 – Marcus Bontempelli, Western Bulldogs
2 – Nick Daicos, Collingwood
1 – Charlie Curnow, Carlton; Jordan Dawson, Adelaide Crows; Tom Green, GWS GIANTS; Errol Gulden, Sydney Swans; Darcy Parish, Essendon; Sam Walsh, Carlton;

Which player do you think will win the 2024 Coleman Medal? (One captain nominated eventual Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow in 2023).
7 – Charlie Curnow, Carlton
3 – Jeremy Cameron, Geelong Cats; Nick Larkey, North Melbourne
1 – Tom Hawkins, Geelong Cats; Max King, St Kilda; Tom Lynch, Richmond; Harry McKay, Carlton; Jacob Van Rooyen, Melbourne

Which player do you think will win the 2024 AFL Rising Star? (One captain nominated eventual Ron Evans Medalist Harry Sheezel in 2023).
6 – Harley Reid, West Coast Eagles
5 – George Wardlaw, North Melbourne
3 – Ryley Sanders, Western Bulldogs
2 – Colby McKercher, North Melbourne
1 – Blake Howes, Melbourne; Jed Walter, Gold Coast SUNS

www.foxsports.com.au

AFL captains’ predictions revealed: Lions tipped for revenge as Daicos ISN’T Brownlow favourite

AFL captains’ predictions revealed: Lions tipped for revenge as Daicos ISN’T Brownlow favourite
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au
 
Coobk001 said:
Close games absolutely involve luck. Kicking straight. The bounce of a ball. Facing the right teams at the right time, there's all sorts that play into it. Great teams have a steely resolve and find a way to win them of course, but we have demonstrated over several years we generally aren't good in close ones, so one outlier year doesn't say we're suddenly a great team.

Importantly as a result we can't claim we were some juggernaut when all signs say we got incredibly lucky with those close ones. And then on the other hand we can't say that well the rising other team, that got unlucky, was no good. It just doesn't make sense to me. If that logic makes sense to you then good for you. Meanwhile I believe Tredrea's comments lit a fire under this team that only things like new coaches usually do, and I think that has well and truly worn off now and I'm not sure we will be able to lift ourselves again to the level required to get to the top. We're too stale. I predict around 15 wins for us, which is still good, but I don't see us improving while other teams last year started to look like going past us and I think the Crows are likely to be one of them. I hope I'm wrong, but that is what my gut tells me.
Click to expand...
I've got the crows 7th, which is a 3 place rise for them so i'm definitely not saying they are no good or won't improve at all, i just think having them in the top 4 is a massive stretch. Genuinely a 6-12 side for me. Whereas i still see us as a top 5 or 6 side. We had a 6 game break on them last year so that's a lot of "flukey" close games they've got to make up.

We had a bad year with close games in 2022 but i think we've been pretty good in close games since 2020 overall (in season of course) .
 
TeeKray said:
I guess what people see with the Crows is steady improvement. Under Nicks they have improved every year since the rock bottom of 2020. That doesn't guarantee anything of course but it does give you some confidence in what they're doing.

The reality with us is that we had our chance in 2020/2021 and we cocked it up deluxe. We have looked increasingly less likely to win finals and challenge ever since, irrespective of ladder position. We are presently being kept afloat by an outstanding young midfield that has the potential to be one of the best the game has ever seen. But if you look closely the rest of the team is in transition and would be closer to bottom 4 than top 4 without the uplift of the superb midfield. That's why nobody rates us.
Click to expand...
I'm looking closely, but i'm struggling to see how our list is worse off now than what it was in 2020-2021.

there is really only one thing that i think is holding us back and that is a stale coach and game plan. But the list seems in a slightly better place and more balanced than it was then for me.
 
Willsy10 said:
Isn't winning close games better than losing close games? It just doesn't really make sensed to me that the crows are going to be good this year because they lost a heap of close games last year and we are going to struggle because we won a heap. The only logic i can see in that is that you think all close games are decided by luck. But even if the crows won every single one of those games they lost by under a goal they still would've finished below us.

and as Janus mentioned there record at home was worse than us last year.

And i don't understand how last year is considered a fluke for us when it was actually our second lowest finish in 4 seasons.
Click to expand...

Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but they only won 2 away games too — a 3pt win in Launceston and a comfy cruise over the worst West Coast outfit in their 37 year history.

Apart from being able to outwit our supercoach, they’re low on talent and they’re not very good.

They should expect natural progression out of the Tilthorpes, Racheles, Rankines and Michalanneys, but that’ll be tempered by the Walkers, Sloanes and Smiths declining, and the usual one-paced plodderthon of Laird, Crouch, Jones and Berry scaring only our blue chip goobers after dark.
 
Willsy10 said:
I've got the crows 7th, which is a 3 place rise for them so i'm definitely not saying they are no good or won't improve at all, i just think having them in the top 4 is a massive stretch. Genuinely a 6-12 side for me. Whereas i still see us as a top 5 or 6 side. We had a 6 game break on them last year so that's a lot of "flukey" close games they've got to make up.

We had a bad year with close games in 2022 but i think we've been pretty good in close games since 2020 overall (in season of course) .
Click to expand...
I reckon you're pretty close to the mark with Adelaide. I think a part of the assumption that Adelaide will make this giant leap is that there were a few years in a row where a team came from outside the previous year's 8 and jumped into the 4 and people tend to assume that this will happen again or that they need to throw a smokey in there. Of the teams outside the 8 from last season Adelaide look to a lot of people the most capable to be that side (based on a cursory glance at their form against last year's top 4 - beating us twice, Brisbane once, and losing close to Collingwood twice). A lot of it is just the vibe.
 
Port should be top 4. Absolutely no excuses with the squad, age profile etc. Anything outside the top 4 is a failed year for mine. I look at Collingwoods squad and Brisbanes squad and i dont see a major gap between us and them.

The difference at the moment is those sides are coached better. They have a distinct brand of football that you can expect week in week out. On talent alone we have plenty enough to win a flag.
 
TeeKray said:
I guess what people see with the Crows is steady improvement. Under Nicks they have improved every year since the rock bottom of 2020. That doesn't guarantee anything of course but it does give you some confidence in what they're doing.

The reality with us is that we had our chance in 2020/2021 and we cocked it up deluxe. We have looked increasingly less likely to win finals and challenge ever since, irrespective of ladder position. We are presently being kept afloat by an outstanding young midfield that has the potential to be one of the best the game has ever seen. But if you look closely the rest of the team is in transition and would be closer to bottom 4 than top 4 without the uplift of the superb midfield. That's why nobody rates us.
Click to expand...
Buckley rates us. Repeatedly too.
 
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