Autopsy 2024 Rd 13 Blues shoot down the Bombers to move into 2nd

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I not up with it but doesn't the predictive score take account of where the shots are from?

Yes. But if you were 51% from a particular spot, it would suggest you should have goaled.

 

[Garters]

I not up with it but doesn't the predictive score take account of where the shots are from?

It does, it ascribes a numerical value relative to the historical statistical probability of it being kicked. If you kick above predicted score you have kicked well and likewise other direction. It is basically chasing a perfect mean.
But what it can't take into account is game variables. If you force a team into parts of the ground under pressure and against their natural game plan or scoring method then it is hard to say that in a normal course of a game historically they should have kicked x.
They were inaccurate but you look at the dot plot of where their shots were taken from and you are not kicking a lot of goals from those pockets especially with the calibre of forwards they had and the pressure that was being applied. Sometimes stats over cook the Turkey When there are too many variables at play

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Don't say that to an Essendon fan, though, they will instead tell you that akchually Merrett had a really good game and Cinc didn't really close him down.

They must not watch there own players and there number 1 attribute -- Merret is movement by foot which he had limited effectiveness except that nice ball in the first quarter then Newman give 50 his only really effective disposals were short handballs that led to very little ..
why I prefer a tagger on a kicker than an in and under handball player .

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Predictive Score … wtf takes nothing else into consideration?
Stupid

Ross Lyon and Hinkley continually bring it up in pressers - hasn't helped any team they coach to the ultimate prize

 

[Arr0w]

Champion data, predicted score, shots on goal from a certain range/angle

Unfortunately they lump every playing in the same metric and don't take conditions into consideration

Fogarty kicking from 48 metres, wet conditions into a a breeze, is vastly different to Gov in dry conditions with a tail wind

 

[Aphrodite]

This is so special

So proud of our Club.

 

[dumb]

satisfying game to watch apart from the third. had enough space between us for most of the match so forgot the defib unit.
kemp looked a touch shaky but got absolutely stiffed by the umpires a couple of times. helluva game by de koning.
elijah looks a little bit like mark waugh as an afl player. laconic but silky skills and has a handle on the ball. williams getting amongst it.
hope voss is doing his homework on the cats because they'll be picking the eyes out of our last few games to get around williams, cincotta, even cowan.

 

[El Topo]

Ross Lyon and Hinkley continually bring it up in pressers - hasn't helped any team they coach to the ultimate prize

It's a loser's metric - cf. Carlton in the first half of last year

 

[Magruder]

satisfying game to watch apart from the third. had enough space between us for most of the match so forgot the defib unit.
kemp looked a touch shaky but got absolutely stiffed by the umpires a couple of times. helluva game by de koning.
elijah looks a little bit like mark waugh as an afl player. laconic but silky skills and has a handle on the ball. williams getting amongst it.
hope voss is doing his homework on the cats because they'll be picking the eyes out of our last few games to get around williams, cincotta, even cowan.

if the opposition is worrying about stopping Williams, Cincotta and Cowan are they spending enough time worrying about stopping Cripps, Walsh & Curnow? or Saad, Hollands and McKay? Martin, Cerra and Gov? etc etc.

Happy for them to worry about all of 'em.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

if the opposition is worrying about stopping Williams, Cincotta and Cowan are they spending enough time worrying about stopping Cripps, Walsh & Curnow? or Saad, Hollands and McKay? Martin, Cerra and Gov? etc etc.

Happy for them to worry about all of 'em.

Last time we played them Pitto had a huge impact - interesting to see if the MC draw any conclusions from that game re our ruck strategy.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Last time we played them Pitto had a huge impact - interesting to see if the MC draw any conclusions from that game re our ruck strategy.

Yeah but TDK is much less useful...and we have less run

Is Pitto's output worth TDK's drop off and the hit to our run?

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Yeah but TDK is much less useful...and we have less run

Is Pitto's output worth TDK's drop off and the hit to our run?

I’d love to hit them with a different look. Toms big bod will help keep Dangerfield at bay you’d hope.

Prefer to go in with TDK only, but wouldn’t be surprised.

 

[agro]

and the other 2 are premiership players.
Kernahan was out the box, and Spalding took his game to another level once he put the navy blue on. He wasn't much chop over at melbourne

He turned himself into a reliable set shot for us that’s for sure, because early on he was woeful.

 

[Worm4]

He turned himself into a reliable set shot for us that’s for sure, because early on he was woeful.

We used to turn around and not watch when he had shots for goal