Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

[George CantStandYa]

Correct. But it was more important to try and find quality at those positions over the past 5 years since we had ROB.

ROB is still just 29 years old. Realistically the plan would have been to have ROB until 2027/2028.



As I said previously - more important to find other players especially since we were a non contending list.



I would be over the moon if we managed to steal a ready made ruck for a 2nd or 3rd rounder and save the cash for elsewhere.

ROB was dropped last year, given he’s a leader that’s huge. Means he’s sucked for a number of games.

Had we drafted a ruck 3-5 years ago he could possibly be forcing ROB out permanently.

We also hope to be contending in a year or 2 and you’re quite bullish on this year, having a ruck that we don’t want to drop surely is better? That ruck could have been the one we drafted and developed 3-5 years ago and taken up all of one list spot.

 

[Scorpus]

Sliding doors moment for me is taking Parnell over Moyle in the 2021 mid season rookie draft. That was the opportunity and we blew it

 

[DJ75]

Yeah fine by me, he'd be cat B rookie initially right?

Just don't understand the club's stand against drafting a young developing ruck, generally can be had for minimal draft capital or even as a rookie, especially given both our lead ruck and back up ruck are virtually the same age. Seems very strange to me given there have been plenty of "cheap" options available through the draft ever since Strachan was pulled from the Bendigo Football League.

I believe that is right.

Really it should cost nothing but a bit of time for one of the lower level coaches and fitness people to see where he is at. I would think he's probably not even a Cat B listing yet. Just a test and see. If it goes well, then sign him in 6 months or a year. He is a genuine longer term prospect.

Maybe we think it's not worth it. At least tell the guy.

 

[DJ75]

Sliding doors moment for me is taking Parnell over Moyle in the 2021 mid season rookie draft. That was the opportunity and we blew it

It looked like a poor decision then and looks worse now.

 

[AFC979810]

ROB was dropped last year, given he’s a leader that’s huge. Means he’s sucked for a number of games.

Had we drafted a ruck 3-5 years ago he could possibly be forcing ROB out permanently.

Yeah - his effort has been down and he has had a couple of rough patches. He is still competitive enough where he doesn't win/lose games for us.

We also hope to be contending in a year or 2 and you’re quite bullish on this year, having a ruck that we don’t want to drop surely is better?

ROB is fine for a contending team IMO as long as the rest of the team is very good.

That ruck could have been the one we drafted and developed 3-5 years ago and taken up all of one list spot.

Yeah. Or we could find a gem this offseason for cheap to eventually replace ROB. We still have a competitive average ruckman that is only 29.

 

[Mutineer]

So we drafted ROB onto the list when Jacobs was just 26 years old, three years earlier than the position we are in now.

The equivalent would have been us drafting a developing ruck in 2021

The year Port drafted the athletic Dante Visentini with pick 56 who gives every indication he will become a pretty decent lead ruck if not this season very soon.

 

[Mutineer]

Yeah - his effort has been down and he has had a couple of rough patches. He is still competitive enough where he doesn't win/lose games for us.



ROB is fine for a contending team IMO as long as the rest of the team is very good.



Yeah. Or we could find a gem this offseason for cheap to eventually replace ROB. We still have a competitive average ruckman that is only 29.

ROB is an uncontracted UFA at season's end and Strachan is also out of contract and should be delisted, so there may be no option to "ëventually" replace ROB if as has been rumoured he returns to Melbourne to resume his studies?

Our needs could be very immediate so just one "gem" this off season really isn't the situation.

 

[Big Dub]

What percentage of ruckmen are drafted by a club and become a success for that club, as compared to those who are traded in, or those who don't amount to anything at all?

And how does it compare to using that pick on another position of need?

That's a genuine question. At a glance, most successful clubs seem to have a high percentage of traded rucks. It does look like you only need them to be okay, and you can only play one.

That being said, Bicks list of late draft picks who could have been taken is pretty persuasive.

Our mids, small defenders and forwards and tall defenders and forwards all seem pretty strong. Maybe too much depth in small defenders and we should have traded that depth for another ruck.

I did this analysis at the end of 2023, but the themes won't have changed too much (nor has the problem):


Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:

• 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
• 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
• 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in first best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of the successes was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stephan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.

But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:


The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:


Key takeaways:

• If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
• It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
• Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
• Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
• Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.

So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?

 

[1990crow]

Something that follows the ruck discussion.
I know the club spoke with a young guy at the end of last year who could be a longer term prospect and a Cat B recruit.
The lad is 19 I think, 6 foot 10 (and possibly still growing) and a basketballer. He played footy until U16's.
He's very skinny so couldn't play SANFL yet, but was definitely someone you could look at, train etc with an eye to bringing on board later. He is however starting to fill out. His dad is 6 foot 8 and built like an out house. He will be a very big 24 year old.

So anyway, we sent one of our guys to meet with him. They had a conversation and the club promised to be in contact once the trades and draft periods had been completed. We said late Nov/early Dec.

We have not made contact again. Nothing. Not a text message, not a phone call, nothing.

Hard to completely remove a decade of poor professional at this club.

 

[AFC979810]

ROB is an uncontracted UFA at season's end and Strachan is also out of contract and should be delisted, so there may be no option to "ëventually" replace ROB if as has been rumoured he returns to Melbourne to resume his studies?

We have a full season to figure it out.

We get Draper we have a #1 ruckman.
We don't get Draper we try and sign ROB on a 2 year deal.
We miss both - we pry a ready made ruckman who is lacking opportunities from another side.

Our recruitment has been pretty successful the past 4 off seasons. We have a young emerging talent filled list.

Our needs could be very immediate so just one "gem" this off season really isn't the situation.

Beauty of Ruckman. We only play 1 and history shows they are pretty cheap to trade for.

If worse comes to worse - we can offer Brisbane a 4th rounder for out of contract Zane Sakostelsky - problem solved.

 

[Doctor B]

So the premiers have completely bungled their list management? Going into a season with soon to be 31 year old Oscar as ruckman 1 (OOC 2026) and 31 year old Darcy Fort (OOC 2025). If both of them go down then all that is left is Smith who isnt ready apparently.

Call me crazy, but looks eerily similar to us having a 29 year old Rob as our starter and a backup who is also 29 years old. Like Brisbane has Smith - we have a 22 year old Fwd / Ruck in Thilthorpe and another fwd ruck in Toby Murray.

Our short term ruck situation for 2025 is completely fine. It's the same it was in 2022, 2023, 2024.

We have a full season to figure it out.

We get Draper we have a #1 ruckman.
We don't get Draper we try and sign ROB on a 2 year deal.
We miss both - we pry a ready made ruckman who is lacking opportunities from another side.

Our recruitment has been pretty successful the past 4 off seasons. We have a young emerging talent filled list.




Beauty of Ruckman. We only play 1 and history shows they are pretty cheap to trade for.

If worse comes to worse - we can offer Brisbane a 4th rounder for out of contract Zane Sakostelsky - problem solved.

This morning you said Brisbane only had Oscar, Fort & Smith as rucks.

Now they've got Zakostelsky

 

[Mutineer]

We have a full season to figure it out.

We get Draper we have a #1 ruckman.
We don't get Draper we try and sign ROB on a 2 year deal.
We miss both - we pry a ready made ruckman who is lacking opportunities from another side.

Our recruitment has been pretty successful the past 4 off seasons. We have a young emerging talent filled list.




Beauty of Ruckman. We only play 1 and history shows they are pretty cheap to trade for.

If worse comes to worse - we can offer Brisbane a 4th rounder for out of contract Zane Sakostelsky - problem solved.

LOL

Zane Zakostelsky​

• Key Defender
• 19
• 196cm

Zakostelky wasn't drafted to be a ruckman, he's a KPP that played some ruck for Claremont colts which isn't unusual for a 196cm athletic KPP at junior level....He got drafted off his 2 outstanding games for WA at the Nationals in the Key Defensive role.

Why on earth would Brisbane be interested in trading him for chump change at this point with what he offers athletically for the future being a late convert from basketball?

Edit

Brisbane head resruiter Stephen Conole is arguably the best recruiter in the business though having the advabtage of some top end talent via F/Sn and their Academy hasn't harmed either...Zane was always a pick for the future for the above mentioned athletic profile off the charts and his late start to footy.

 

[Coopers]

If worse comes to worse - we can offer Brisbane a 4th rounder for out of contract Zane Sakostelsky - problem solved.

Jesus, that haircut is worse than Drapers.

 

[AFC979810]

LOL

Zane Zakostelsky​

• Key Defender
• 19
• 196cm

Zakostelky wasn't drafted to be a ruckman, he's a KPP that played some ruck for Claremont colts which isn't unusual for a 196cm athletic KPP at junior level....He got drafted off his 2 outstanding games for WA at the Nationals in the Key Defensive role.

Why on earth would Brisbane be interested in trading him for chump change at this point with what he offers athletically for the future being a late convert from basketball?

Edit

Brisbane head resruiter Stephen Conole is arguably the best recruiter in the business though having the advabtage of some top end talent via F/Sn and their Academy hasn't harmed either...Zane was always a pick for the future for the above mentioned athletic profile off the charts and his late start to footy.

One month ago you listed him as a ruckman when comparing Brisbane's ruck stocks to ours (see below). I then challenged that he wasn't a ruckman and you responded below talking about and highlighting/bolding all the references to his ruck work.

Hard to believe the two posts from are from the same person less than a month apart.

Have you ever watched Zane Zakostelsky play? I have, he's played plenty of ruck for Claremont Colts before being drafted by Brisbane.

Zane Zakostelsky | WAFL

wafl.com.au

Zane Zakostelsky Draft Profile

Claremont tall Zane Zakostelsky has untapped potential as an athletic and versatile prospect who has entered the draft conversation.

central.rookieme.com

View attachment 2205081

Zane Zakostelsky | AFL

Follow Zane Zakostelsky's progress through AFL

www.lions.com.au

Former basketballer, Zane Zakostelsky is another of the Lions draft crop from 2023, selected with pick 51. Hailing from Claremont Football Club in Western Australia, Zakostelsky display a high level of versatility in his draft year, playing both in the ruck and key defender. A powerful athlete converting from basketball, Zakostelsky stands at 196 centimetres tall and possess raw physical traits, highlighted by his best on ground performance in the WAFL Colts Grand Final. Zakostelsky finished top 10 in four of the five tests at the AFL Draft Combine further demonstrating his athleticism which should get Lions fans excited.

Zane Zakostelsky of the Brisbane Lions Player Profile and AFL Stats

Zane Zakostelsky of the Brisbane Lions profile and AFL statistics.

www.footywire.com

Zane Zakostelsky​

#21 Brisbane Lions
Age: 19yr 1mth Games: 0 Born: December 14, 2005 Origin: Claremont
Height: 196cm Weight: 89kg Position: Defender, Ruck
Drafted: Round 3, Pick #51 2023 National Draft by Brisbane Lions
Supercoach Price: $117,300 Supercoach Profile
AFL Fantasy Price: $200,000 AFL Fantasy Profile
Contract Status: Out of contract at the end of 2025 AFL Player Contracts

 

[AFC979810]

This morning you said Brisbane only had Oscar, Fort & Smith as rucks.

Now they've got Zakostelsky

It was a crack at old mate Bicks who listed Zakostelsky as a ruck a month ago.

Dude is 196cm and had zero hitouts in his 17 VFL games last year. Played more wing than ruck. Here is the thread where Bicks called him a ruckman.

List Mgmt. - 2025 List Mismanagement and Trading

Rather than clog up bigman thread a omparison of all AFL clubs ruck situations.. Adelaide Reilly O'Brien 29yr 4mth Keiran Strachan 29yr 3mth Brisbane Oscar McInerny 30yr 6mth Darcy Fort 31yr 5mth Henry Smith 22yr 3mth Zane Zakostelsky 19yr 1mth (Defender/Ruck) Carlton Tom DeKoning 25yr 5mth...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Mutineer]

One month ago you listed him as a ruckman when comparing Brisbane's ruck stocks to ours (see below). I then challenged that he wasn't a ruckman and you responded below talking about and highlighting/bolding all the references to his ruck work.

Hard to believe the two posts from are from the same person less than a month apart.

Exactly, as I stated he played ruck for the Claremont Colts before coming to the notice of recruiters as a Key Defender at the Nationals...that's what got him drafted, not the fact that he played ruck at the lower level.

Played in defence every game in the VFL this season.

How many AFL lead rucks are 196cm currently or in recent times?

 

[AFC979810]

Exactly, as I stated he played ruck for the Claremont Colts before coming to the notice of recruiters as a Key Defender at the Nationals...that's what got him drafted, not the fact that he played ruck at the lower level.

Played in defence every game in the VFL this season.

How many AFL lead rucks are 196cm currently or in recent times?

Never change Bicks. You are arguing with yourself.

One month ago you listed him as a ruckman when we were discussing ruck depth. I challenged it saying he was 196cm. You then came back asking if I had ever seen him play and then listing a bunch of draft articles that suggested he was a ruckman. Then you bolded every part of the article that said he was a ruckman.

Now one month later you are saying he was never going to be a ruckman.

If you need a refresher - It was this post where you listed this is a comparison.

Adelaide
Reilly O'Brien 29yr 4mth
Keiran Strachan 29yr 3mth

Brisbane
Oscar McInerny 30yr 6mth
Darcy Fort 31yr 5mth
Henry Smith 22yr 3mth
Zane Zakostelsky 19yr 1mth (Defender/Ruck)

You included a player that 1 month later that you suggest was never going to be a ruckman. You also included Ruck/Fwd Smith - but didnt include 22 year old Fwd/Ruck Riley Thilthorpe or Ruck/Fwd Toby Murray.

 

[kick it to me_]

I'd be watching Will Verrall see how he goes this year. He's had a pretty good apprenticeship.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[AFC979810]

How many AFL lead rucks are 196cm currently or in recent times?

Zero! Which is what I pointed out to you a month ago when you were trying to claim he was a Brisbane Ruckman.

Refuses to list Toby Murray or TT as Forward/Rucks.

Then we move to Brisbane.

Lists Brisbane Key Defender who is 196cm Zane Zakostelsky as a defender/ruck. The absolute bullshit to list a bloke who played 16 VFL games in 2024 and had NOT ONE HITOUT - is classic Bicks.

Lists Key Forward Henry Smith as a pure Ruckman, https://www.lions.com.au/players/4053/henry-smith

Disingenuous much?

We have the same setup as Brisbane, WB, Melbourne, Sydney, St Kilda and Hawthorn.

 

[Mutineer]

Never change Bicks. You are arguing with yourself.

One month ago you listed him as a ruckman when we were discussing ruck depth. I challenged it saying he was 196cm. You then came back asking if I had ever seen him play and then listing a bunch of draft articles that suggested he was a ruckman. Then you bolded every part of the article that said he was a ruckman.

Now one month later you are saying he was never going to be a ruckman.

If you need a refresher - It was this post where you listed this is a comparison.

Adelaide
Reilly O'Brien 29yr 4mth
Keiran Strachan 29yr 3mth

Brisbane
Oscar McInerny 30yr 6mth
Darcy Fort 31yr 5mth
Henry Smith 22yr 3mth
Zane Zakostelsky 19yr 1mth (Defender/Ruck)

You included a player that 1 month later that you suggest was never going to be a ruckman. You also included Ruck/Fwd Smith - but didnt include 22 year old Fwd/Ruck Riley Thilthorpe or Ruck/Fwd Toby Murray.

Defender/Ruck looks pretty clear what comes first especially when talking lead ruckmen.

It's you that never changes not me.

You be sure and let me know the day Zane plays lead ruck in an AFL team.

 

[Mutineer]

Zero! Which is what I pointed out to you a month ago when you were trying to claim he was a Brisbane Ruckman.

That's bullshit and you know it DEFENDER/Ruck

 

[AFC979810]

You be sure and let me know the day Zane plays lead ruck in an AFL team.

That's bullshit and you know it DEFENDER/Ruck

You listed him as a Brisbane Ruckman not me - literally one month ago. When I called you out on this you posted a long retort with all the articles calling him a ruckman and bloody bolded the word "RUCK".

You thought he was more of a ruckman than Riley Thilthorpe when comparing teams.

I have never seen someone argue against themselves. Your name isn't Skip Bayless is it?

 

[Mostyn]

Something that follows the ruck discussion.
I know the club spoke with a young guy at the end of last year who could be a longer term prospect and a Cat B recruit.
The lad is 19 I think, 6 foot 10 (and possibly still growing) and a basketballer. He played footy until U16's.
He's very skinny so couldn't play SANFL yet, but was definitely someone you could look at, train etc with an eye to bringing on board later. He is however starting to fill out. His dad is 6 foot 8 and built like an out house. He will be a very big 24 year old.

So anyway, we sent one of our guys to meet with him. They had a conversation and the club promised to be in contact once the trades and draft periods had been completed. We said late Nov/early Dec.

We have not made contact again. Nothing. Not a text message, not a phone call, nothing.

Send an email to the club. We can't do much here.

 

[Tex Danger]

Mods any chance we can have a specific thread for discussion on our ruck stocks?

It’s completely taking over everywhere

 

[George CantStandYa]

Mods any chance we can have a specific thread for discussion on our ruck stocks?

It’s completely taking over everywhere

You can actually start a thread….