Strategy 2024 Season Preview / Strategy

[Yoda_]

SC is ignoring R0, no players are locked out for R1.

But R0 players play one less game over the season.

All bye rounds are best 18 scores.

what a s**t concept, not only from a fantasy sports concept but an general concept as well..

 

[Yoda_]

Here are the top 10 most selected Supercoach players as of January 26.

Defenders

Zac Williams (61%) - $216,100
Nick Daicos (60%) (DEF/MID) - $650,000
Nick Coffield (58%) - $123,900
Daniel Curtin (55%) - $175,800
Josh Gibcus (47%) - $150,700
James Sicily (39%) - $637,400
Hayden Young (38%) - $525,100
Toby Pink (31%) - $123,900
Tom Stewart (28%) - $635,300
Marty Hore (28%) - $123,900

Midfielders (Non-DPP Status)

Colby McKercher (62%) - $202,800
Ryley Sanders (55%) - $184,800
Jeremy Sharp (51%) - $123,900
Jhye Clark (46%) - $123,900
Sam Walsh (36%) - $576,800
Zak Butters (31%) - $636,100
Marcus Bontempelli (30%) - $724,600
Touk Miller (27%) - $545,500
Tom Green (23%) - $621,500
Christian Petracca (21%) - $667,700

Rucks

Brodie Grundy (68%) - $481,900
Max Gawn (53%) - $583,700
Finnbar Maley (29%) (RUC/FWD) - $102,400
Luke Jackson (18%) (RUC/FWD) - $547,000
Jordan Sweet (15%) - $158,700
Sam Naismith (12%) - $123,900
Coen Livingstone (9%) (RUC/FWD) - $102,400
Tim English (9%) - $715,100
Rowan Marshall (7%) - $639,100
Nathan Kreuger (6%) (RUC/FWD) - $123,900

Forwards

Harley Reid (74%) (FWD/MID) - $207,300
Shaun Mannagh (56%) (FWD/MID) - $117,300
Jack Macrae (52%) (FWD/MID) - $558,400
Zane Duursma (43%) (FWD/MID) - $193,800
Darcy Wilson (42%) (FWD/MID) - $130,800
Sam Flanders (38%) (FWD/MID) - $494,200
Finlay Macrae (32%) - $152,600
Finnbar Maley (29%) (FWD/RUC) - $102,400
Nick Watson (27%) (FWD/MID) - $189,300
Sam Darcy (25%) - $123,900

I made a team of almost players from this list and I would be fairly comfortable with taking it into round zero... 1

 

[A Bit Dusty]

What are coaches doing regarding Naicos?
I keep changing my mind on him but at the moment I think he is worth starting unless he throws out a stinker in R0

 

[Choppers]

What are coaches doing regarding Naicos?
I keep changing my mind on him but at the moment I think he is worth starting unless he throws out a stinker in R0

Same here.....had him at D1 but have changed my mind once again and have moved him to M2 with Curtin moving to D6....

 

[Northernsoul74]

How many Round 0 players is workable?

I see lot of teams with Gawn, but I’m contemplating on not starting with him = one less RD0 player

I was until the the English worries. Seriously, it’s Gawn at less than $600k. Still the best ruckman by far.

What are coaches doing regarding Naicos?
I keep changing my mind on him but at the moment I think he is worth starting unless he throws out a stinker in R0

Currently not starting him. Probably a mistake but hoping a few of those early teams make life difficult for him.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

What are coaches doing regarding Naicos?
I keep changing my mind on him but at the moment I think he is worth starting unless he throws out a stinker in R0

Got him in currently.

Just seems easier to start him. If you FADE him you're really committing to getting him in round 6/7. And he could still be well over $600k. That's tough for an early upgrade imo.

I don't really like the idea of having to get him then either, means you might have to miss other opportunities (new DPP players). And he could start on fire and be $700k.

But if he spuds in R0 I might jump off and take the risk.

gutsroy did you run the numbers on what he needs to score to hold his price? Was it Daicos you did that for?

 

[MacStradbroke]

Got him in currently.

Just seems easier to start him. If you FADE him you're really committing to getting him in round 6/7. And he could still be well over $600k. That's tough for an early upgrade imo.

I don't really like the idea of having to get him then either, means you might have to miss other opportunities (new DPP players). And he could start on fire and be $700k.

But if he spuds in R0 I might jump off and take the risk.

gutsroy did you run the numbers on what he needs to score to hold his price? Was it Daicos you did that for?

Yeah if your 18th player can scrap an 80 odd the week he has a bye ya really only losing 30 or so points that week, it’s not a lot over a season to leave him out…and he is that good I’d feel sick watching him each week if I didn’t have him.

 

[gutsroy]

Got him in currently.

Just seems easier to start him. If you FADE him you're really committing to getting him in round 6/7. And he could still be well over $600k. That's tough for an early upgrade imo.

I don't really like the idea of having to get him then either, means you might have to miss other opportunities (new DPP players). And he could start on fire and be $700k.

But if he spuds in R0 I might jump off and take the risk.

gutsroy did you run the numbers on what he needs to score to hold his price? Was it Daicos you did that for?

G'day mate,
Nah, hadn't looked at him, but here's a couple of scenarios in which he goes low in Rd 4 to give folks an idea of $ he might lose:


In the examples above, if he dips in Rd 4 and you reckon he goes well apart from that, could lose 100k if you're prepared to wait for Rd 7 (when the assumed low one Rd 4 drops out of the rolling average) and, say, 50k or so if you want to jump on him straight off his bye.

And to tread water early on, reckon he'd need to go at around 120:


Depends a lot on assumptions, I guess. But if you reckon he really can go 120 without skipping a beat, he'll basically defy gravity.

That help at all, mate?

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

G'day mate,
Nah, hadn't looked at him, but here's a couple of scenarios in which he goes low in Rd 4 to give folks an idea of $ he might lose:
View attachment 1894053

In the examples above, if he dips in Rd 4 and you reckon he goes well apart from that, could lose 100k if you're prepared to wait for Rd 7 (when the assumed low one Rd 4 drops out of the rolling average) and, say, 50k or so if you want to jump on him straight off his bye.

And to tread water early on, reckon he'd need to go at around 120:
View attachment 1894055

Depends a lot on assumptions, I guess. But if you reckon he really can go 120 without skipping a beat, he'll basically defy gravity.

That help at all, mate?

Legend, definitely leaning start him.

 

[gutsroy]

Makeshift Park sorry, didn't explain all thinking:
Port and Freo players all get a little bump vs other sides due to their bye, and I reckon a number of top mids have some regression potential etc.
But currently no Butters / Rozee for me, purely Wines fears.

 

[Glorin]

Lynch won't be ready until rnd 3, I've swapped him out for Billings, priced at 44, should be a Monty to score 75's

I don't see how Billings is much more than depth at the Dees.

 

[gutsroy]

I don't see how Billings is much more than depth at the Dees.

Cloud over Oliver
Harmes gone
Jordon gone
Petracca might need to play more through the middle if Oliver is out for stints

Bloke who can play up the ground thru half forward seems like he'd have ok-ish chances(?)

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Cloud over Oliver
Harmes gone
Jordon gone
Petracca might need to play more through the middle if Oliver is out for stints

Bloke who can play up the ground thru half forward seems like he'd have ok-ish chances(?)

Generally expect new signings to get a run first up. Be odd if he went there without being promised a crack in the team.

Little bonus with Billings is he has 4 price rises before his RD6 bye. Might allow an early upgrade to a new DPP player.

 

[Glorin]

Cloud over Oliver
Harmes gone
Jordon gone
Petracca might need to play more through the middle if Oliver is out for stints

Bloke who can play up the ground thru half forward seems like he'd have ok-ish chances(?)

Generally expect new signings to get a run first up. Be odd if he went there without being promised a crack in the team.

Little bonus with Billings is he has 4 price rises before his RD6 bye. Might allow an early upgrade to a new DPP player.

I hear what you are saying. Just think a former pick 3 at 28 years old who played 11 games in 2 seasons, then let go for a future 3rd rd pick is not likely to come in and play the first 10-12 in 2024.
Would love to be proven wrong and best of luck to him, just think he is a massive risk to start in SC.

 

[buttox]

What are coaches doing regarding Naicos?
I keep changing my mind on him but at the moment I think he is worth starting unless he throws out a stinker in R0

Start him.
Sure he plays one less game.
But realistically you will captain him about 10 times throughout the year.
You will get his score 30+ times

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Cloud over Oliver
Harmes gone
Jordon gone
Petracca might need to play more through the middle if Oliver is out for stints

Bloke who can play up the ground thru half forward seems like he'd have ok-ish chances(?)

Perhaps Sparrow could be the one to look out for?

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

View attachment 1894373

Interesting stat, but does it tell us anything we don't know? MCrouch played much few games than the others. But he's a proven ball big.

In SC what they do with it matters too though. Parish and Treloar are too injury prone imo. The rest will be popular picks.

 

[4tune8]

I'm not sure about my logic with the following picks, but hear me out and then shoot me down in flames if you want.

I'm wanting to start Guthrie and Crouch and swap them out before their byes to premos who are coming off their byes, so players like Gulden and Petracca, or any other premo that I think has low ownership (and high scoring potential) because of them having an early bye.

I'm fairly satisfied that providing their roles stack up then they'll warrant holding and deliver an average that'll be very close to a premo that has 2 byes, ie; around 10PPG less. Crouch went at 108 and Petracca 119, Guthrie should pull a 105 and I'd expect Gulden to go around 115 (111 ave. last season) The biggest advantage for me however is that I'm saving $480k on those 2 positions which allow me to turn a rookie into Amon (yes, I know that's another risk) who I think will be a Def. keeper as well run with Williams, Chapman and/or Billings instead of rookies. I'm not sure if I have my numbers right but I'm assuming that those last 3 should average 10PPG over a rookie and Amon maybe 40-50PPG better than a rookie.

Running with the 2 cheaper MP's and Amon (the $480k saving) should give me (theoretically) an extra 60-70PPG better scoring ability than starting with premos that have an early bye, if I start with non rnd0 premos then that better scoring is reduced to around 50-60PPG.

Upgrading Guthrie and Crouch to $600k+ players should cost about 2 trades each, starting Amon over a rookie should save 2 trades and having say Williams and Billings should save another trade each upgrading them. So starting the aforementioned players would work out to be cost neutral in terms of trades but over 14 rounds there's the possibility of being, at a minimum 700pts, or maximum 980pts better off. Oh, and my M5 and M6 wouldn't have a bye at all.

I must be doing something wrong because those numbers seem outrageous.

 

[adammania9]

I'm not sure about my logic with the following picks, but hear me out and then shoot me down in flames if you want.

I'm wanting to start Guthrie and Crouch and swap them out before their byes to premos who are coming off their byes, so players like Gulden and Petracca, or any other premo that I think has low ownership (and high scoring potential) because of them having an early bye.

I'm fairly satisfied that providing their roles stack up then they'll warrant holding and deliver an average that'll be very close to a premo that has 2 byes, ie; around 10PPG less. Crouch went at 108 and Petracca 119, Guthrie should pull a 105 and I'd expect Gulden to go around 115 (111 ave. last season) The biggest advantage for me however is that I'm saving $480k on those 2 positions which allow me to turn a rookie into Amon (yes, I know that's another risk) who I think will be a Def. keeper as well run with Williams, Chapman and/or Billings instead of rookies. I'm not sure if I have my numbers right but I'm assuming that those last 3 should average 10PPG over a rookie and Amon maybe 40-50PPG better than a rookie.

Running with the 2 cheaper MP's and Amon (the $480k saving) should give me (theoretically) an extra 60-70PPG better scoring ability than starting with premos that have an early bye, if I start with non rnd0 premos then that better scoring is reduced to around 50-60PPG.

Upgrading Guthrie and Crouch to $600k+ players should cost about 2 trades each, starting Amon over a rookie should save 2 trades and having say Williams and Billings should save another trade each upgrading them. So starting the aforementioned players would work out to be cost neutral in terms of trades but over 14 rounds there's the possibility of being, at a minimum 700pts, or maximum 980pts better off. Oh, and my M5 and M6 wouldn't have a bye at all.

I must be doing something wrong because those numbers seem outrageous.

It's a 380k saving, not 480k. 380k is enough to get you from a rookie to Amon, but forget about the advantages of the other mid-pricers you've named.

 

[dabombers]

I'm not sure about my logic with the following picks, but hear me out and then shoot me down in flames if you want.

I'm wanting to start Guthrie and Crouch and swap them out before their byes to premos who are coming off their byes, so players like Gulden and Petracca, or any other premo that I think has low ownership (and high scoring potential) because of them having an early bye.

I'm fairly satisfied that providing their roles stack up then they'll warrant holding and deliver an average that'll be very close to a premo that has 2 byes, ie; around 10PPG less. Crouch went at 108 and Petracca 119, Guthrie should pull a 105 and I'd expect Gulden to go around 115 (111 ave. last season) The biggest advantage for me however is that I'm saving $480k on those 2 positions which allow me to turn a rookie into Amon (yes, I know that's another risk) who I think will be a Def. keeper as well run with Williams, Chapman and/or Billings instead of rookies. I'm not sure if I have my numbers right but I'm assuming that those last 3 should average 10PPG over a rookie and Amon maybe 40-50PPG better than a rookie.

Running with the 2 cheaper MP's and Amon (the $480k saving) should give me (theoretically) an extra 60-70PPG better scoring ability than starting with premos that have an early bye, if I start with non rnd0 premos then that better scoring is reduced to around 50-60PPG.

Upgrading Guthrie and Crouch to $600k+ players should cost about 2 trades each, starting Amon over a rookie should save 2 trades and having say Williams and Billings should save another trade each upgrading them. So starting the aforementioned players would work out to be cost neutral in terms of trades but over 14 rounds there's the possibility of being, at a minimum 700pts, or maximum 980pts better off. Oh, and my M5 and M6 wouldn't have a bye at all.

I must be doing something wrong because those numbers seem outrageous.

I don’t see anything wrong with your numbers if they eventuate, C.Guthrie and M.Crouch are going to be popular picks along with Amon, Zilliams and Billings for the exact reasons you have mentioned.

I assume your rucks will be something like Gawn & Grundy over English.

Your plan is great for M5 & M6 upgrades, timing your upgrades to such a strict point in the season, down to a specific round though is too inflexible and you may need a Plan B and Plan C, D, E…..

Mixing ‘Guns & Rookies’ with ‘Mid-Priced-Madness’ strategies is hard to pull off and comes with its sacrifices.
Less $150K+ rookies to generate cash or less Uber Premiums.

Start with a template of your perfect finished side what round you want to get there and work backwards guesstimating price rises/falls, trades/boosts needed, contingencies for injuries or drop off in form and sideways trade targets. Map this all out like you have for M5 & M6 on all Players & Positions.
Then see if any idea or strategy is worth the risks.
PS. Always expect the Unexpected!

 

[A Bit Dusty]

What are everyones thoughts on Defence!
Is it too much starting Naicos,Sicily,Stewart?

 

[TempletonTheRat]

What are everyones thoughts on Defence!
Is it too much starting Naicos,Sicily,Stewart?

no - but depends on how many of the Young, Amon, Martin types you are also starting - not sure I would want to lock in the full line

 

[Choppers]

I actually have Naicos Stewart Young and Coleman atm......with Graham (M/D) at M9
or move Naicos to MID with McKercher and Sanders M7/8.......so it comes down to whether I'm better off with Sharp or Coffield
onfield...

 

[Lord De Goey]

I'm leaning towards starting Daicos, Sicily, Stewart and Young D1-4. While starting 4 mid premiums that I can trust and Guthrie at M5 who can be upgraded at his bye, or maybe he becomes a serviceable M8. I don't trust a lot of the defender options. I'm fairly confident the big 3 will continue their expected output and Young represents great value to be D6 at worst.

The main reason I'm considering this structure is because the midfield has really left me stumped. 15 midfielders finished with an average of 110 or higher last season, but we had the luxury of selecting some of those players in different lines (Daicos, Dawson, Gulden etc...) Then you've got players such as Brayshaw, Rozee, Parish plus guys even further down the scale, Touk, Steele, Walsh with a proven history of going 115+. I cannot confidently select any more than 4 genuine premiums that I believe are somewhat of a lock to be top 10. I feel like I'd be potentially locking myself out of so many players that'll either bounce back or make the step up into super premium territory.

I feel like this strategy gives me reliable options in defence, which I hate versing in my league. Like seriously, is there anything worse than your matchup having Sicily as a unique... While giving me the ability to target the best of the best midfielders throughout the season.