List Mgmt. 2025 AFL Draft - Draft Analysis

[tigs2010]

MR has to be a Norf fan. No one on their board defends their **** ups to this extent.

Here is him and [PLAYERCARD]Brady Rawlings[/PLAYERCARD]. Brady is the little one trying to get away from all the love and affection

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Can someone please tell me what happened to Dyson Sharp? The kid was described as a generational talent, #1 pick, etc, etc, and ended up falling to #13 (Essendon)?

 

[Wrenny]

Can someone please tell me what happened to Dyson Sharp? The kid was described as a generational talent, #1 pick, etc, etc, and ended up falling to #13 (Essendon)?

Vic Bias

 

[tigs2010]

Can someone please tell me what happened to Dyson Sharp? The kid was described as a generational talent, #1 pick, etc, etc, and ended up falling to #13 (Essendon)?

Unlucky his dad didnt plow his mum 10 years earlier.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Unlucky his dad didnt plow his mum 10 years earlier.

Being SA how do you know that wasn't the case?

 

[Infamy]

MR has to be a Norf fan. No one on their board defends their **** ups to this extent.

Here is him and Brady Rawlings. Brady is the little one trying to get away from all the love and affection

100%, it's just f--king weird otherwise

 

[dean33]

Absolutely. He is Cotch like in that respect. I can see why, even with his smaller less developed body, they preferrenced him ahead of Robey and Sharp.

Interesting that pre draft everyone talking about Sharpe's leadership qualities as captain of SA but didn't hear the same with Grjl as captain of vic metro?
Think we have a beauty along with cumming.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't see that many good players in that list.

Sheezle soft
Duursma what@ his best position?

FOS
Wardlaw
Curtis

Are all very promising and emerging players.

The rest are unknown or untried. Looks pretty poor to me.

Unknown or untried is what most young players are.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Man how good were Micky Martin and Peter Bell back in the day… phoooarrr

 

[DontArgue4]

Little tid bit... had no idea but Kondogiannis' family live in my parents street and my parents know them well

My dad ran into them yesterday, Max was dying to be drafted by Richmond

 

[fargothegreat]

Little tid bit... had no idea but Kondogiannis' family live in my parents street and my parents know them well

My dad ran into them yesterday, Max was dying to be drafted by Richmond

I doubt many kids would be overly excited to be drafted by Essendon, knowing how awful they are at developing kids.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Little tid bit... had no idea but Kondogiannis' family live in my parents street and my parents know them well

My dad ran into them yesterday, Max was dying to be drafted by Richmond

More than one way too get too the Tigers.

 

[THE_GUN]

Little tid bit... had no idea but Kondogiannis' family live in my parents street and my parents know them well

My dad ran into them yesterday, Max was dying to be drafted by Richmond

Then draft him and tell Burton mid season draft

 

[tigs2010]

Then draft him and tell Burton mid season draft

 

[DontArgue4]

Then draft him and tell Burton mid season draft

Dons took him

 

[ShereKhan]

What those figures all appear to me to show is pick 8 would be roughly twice the value of a pick in the mid 20's on average. Or in other words, equally as valuable as two picks in the mid 20's.

We can see from trading patterns however clubs generally think pick 8 is worth more than 2 x mid 20's picks. Under the draft points system in place in 2024, North gave up about 100 points. Equal to a pick in the 60's. The current model it would be like North giving up the value of pick 35.

But in the end, North get value from recruiting the player a year earlier and also by getting access to the right player types at their fair positions in the draft.

Let's just say North had pick 11 this year and took Dovaston with that pick. Or pick 17 last year and took Whitlock with that pick, it wouldn't have raised a ripple. But they would have been giving up similar value. It just isn't worth the fuss that was made about it. Which was my point from the outset.

Yeah … there’s a lot to play out, but we need to be wary of just assuming 4 x 50 x Brownlow vote players = 1 x 200 Brownlow vote players (or coaches votes, or AA etc…..).

Having 4 x B-graders is not worth having 1 x uber elite player, because B-graders are easy to find. Uber elites are unicorns.

Eagles traded a few years back to get I think Ginbey and Hewett for Scheezel. This is what kills a list build - missing out on the uber elites.

So if Grlj is Butters or Cotchin and Whitlock is Ben Miller and Dovaston is Mansell, then North have a problem … that’s the risk with giving up pointy end picks.

 

[beema limapep]

True, but Magic, cast your expert eye on their list of players 22 and younger...

They have 23 of them and many are very talented.

View attachment 2487606

I'm not that impressed. There's alot of fillers in that 23. And who is absolute top end elite A grade? Maybe Sheezel? We would have a similar number who are better individually head to head.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah … there’s a lot to play out, but we need to be wary of just assuming 4 x 50 x Brownlow vote players = 1 x 200 Brownlow vote players (or coaches votes, or AA etc…..).

Having 4 x B-graders is not worth having 1 x uber elite player, because B-graders are easy to find. Uber elites are unicorns.

Eagles traded a few years back to get I think Ginbey and Hewett for Scheezel. This is what kills a list build - missing out on the uber elites.

So if Grlj is Butters or Cotchin and Whitlock is Ben Miller and Dovaston is Mansell, then North have a problem … that’s the risk with giving up pointy end picks.

I think it would be easier looking at a list of say pick 26's v a list of pick 8's. Let's say 2005 to 2019, 15 years so we can get a decent handle on how all the players in the sample are resolving.

Bold = elite, marquee wage level player
Green = strong career never marquee wage level
Red = outright failure

Pick 8

Oakley-Nichols
Ben Reid
L Henderson
Vickery
Butcher
Heppell
Longer
Mayes
L McDonald
P Wright
C Ah Chee
Logue
Coffield
Taryn Thomas
Serong

(Of those drafted since 2019, D Curtin is probably shaping as a really high end player at this stage)

Pick 26

Ibbotson
Shane Edwards
Meredith
Post
Colyer
Darling
Elton
Viney
Z Merrett
T McLean
K Collins
Parfitt
Liam Ryan
Rhylee West
Gould

(of those drafted since 2019, Will Graham looks like being a high end talent, perhaps wouldn't have quite the value of Curtin at this point)

Maybe if we compared picks 7-9 to picks 25-27 we might get a more accurate picture. Because 8 v 26, I am not seeing any great difference between the amounts of strong players coming from these picks. What we see is there are about twice as many outright failures at pick 26.

If you looked at the above and no other evidence, you are trading pick 8 for 2 x pick 26 any day of the week. But I don't pretend that is the real value of the picks, these are probably historic outliers to some extent.

 

[Mr Magic]

Can someone please tell me what happened to Dyson Sharp? The kid was described as a generational talent, #1 pick, etc, etc, and ended up falling to #13 (Essendon)?

yep, reckon we missed a trick.

if he is not a gun I will be surprised

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Can someone please tell me what happened to Dyson Sharp? The kid was described as a generational talent, #1 pick, etc, etc, and ended up falling to #13 (Essendon)?

In a nutshell, interest in Sharp was flat, so the Bombers hoovered Dyson up at pick 13.

 

[Punt Road Feral]

Interesting that pre draft everyone talking about Sharpe's leadership qualities as captain of SA but didn't hear the same with Grjl as captain of vic metro?
Think we have a beauty along with cumming.

To be fair and to call it for what it is:
-SA dominated the champs so that enhances Sharp’s reputation
-Sharp led from the front for SA and from memory was BOG in 3/4 games which again leads with his actions and enhances his reputation
-The synergy with the SA team was very strong and their stoppage work was very impressive which again Sharp played a bit part of it
-Vic Metro looked very disjointed and had a underwhelming series particularly in their first match when SA pumped them and there were instances of selfishness in their play demonstrating they didn’t exactly play for each other. Not exactly Grlj’s fault but as a co captain you go down with that ship
-Grlj’s individual performances in the champs were sub par and you can’t say he was one of Vic Metro’s best players during them.
Interestingly enough he excelled at VFL level but didn’t hit those heights at the champs.

 

[Mr Magic]

To be fair and to call it for what it is:
-SA dominated the champs so that enhances Sharp’s reputation
-Sharp led from the front for SA and from memory was BOG in 3/4 games which again leads with his actions and enhances his reputation
-The synergy with the SA team was very strong and their stoppage work was very impressive which again Sharp played a bit part of it
-Vic Metro looked very disjointed and had a underwhelming series particularly in their first match when SA pumped them and there were instances of selfishness in their play demonstrating they didn’t exactly play for each other. Not exactly Grlj’s fault but as a co captain you go down with that ship
-Grlj’s individual performances in the champs were sub par and you can’t say he was one of Vic Metro’s best players during them.
Interestingly enough he excelled at VFL level but didn’t hit those heights at the champs.

If we got SHarp be easier to select Burton as SSP player I suppose

 

[THE_GUN]

Dons took him

Is that confirmed ?

 

[tigs2010]

Is that confirmed ?

I mean yeah the draft was a week and a half ago and was on live tv. How much more confirmation you want?

 

[dean33]

End the Norf's chat please

100%. 3 pages analysing how north ****ed up last years pick swap. Who actually gives 2 ****s?