List Mgmt. 2025 AFL Draft - Draft Analysis

[THE_GUN]

Nobody believes 2 picks in the mid 20's are worth pick 8 generally.

But there are specific cases where they might be.

The only reason north were able to get a trade for #11 was because Carlton got bent over by the eagles bidding at #3 for dean and they were stuck. No other draft would that even come close let alone for pick #8

2nd rounders are usually mid 20's these days and are subject to being tier 3/4 type players and are very much hit and miss

 

[We are back baby!]

Thanks for that. It certainly balances things up a bit. I had only gone back to 2005 to get 15 years. The A, A+, C+ gradings etc are of course all debatable but I think you have done a decent job of it overall.

What we were discussing was the likelihood of getting needle shifting guns with a single pick around 8 versus 2 picks around 26.

No matter how you define it, the gradings are always going to be debatable.

You have in your picks 7 & 9 contingent a few I would grade differently. Certainly if you looked at their salaries some of them wouldn't have been paid like A Graders.

A graders you have: Hale Mackie Ryder Rich Wines Smith Young McEvoy Ziebell Prestia.

A+ Graders you have: Lewis, Vlastuin, Selwood, Darcy Moore, Naughton.

Others may disagree, but to be an A+ player(the highest possible grade) I think you need to be doing something really noteworthy. For Key Forwards winning Colemans or near enough, mids winning Brownlow's or Coach MVP's or consistently finishing near the top for a number of years or be a consistently very strong big game performer.

I would reduce your A+'s to Selwood.

To be an A grader you need to be a marquee wage player, really strong consistent performer over a decent period, reliably stand up in big games, and be a top 10% in your role level player for a number of years.

I would say your A Grade list should be more like Lewis, Wines(just and probably being generous due to Brownlow) Smith, Young, Vlastuin, Prestia, Naughton(I am biased towards him due to a belief he is worth a lot more than his goals.). You could possibly throw in Darcy Moore but you could as easily argue he is not quite at this level.

Mackie is not an A Grader, good player, but he is not a needle shifter.

Hale, same. Neither a top end ruckman nor forward. Very handy second ruck but this is not A Grade.

Rich too many exploitable weaknesses to be considered an A Grader.

Lewis is not A+ he is not in the top shelf of players in the comp ever. Probably an A Grader though.

Moore is not A+ he has probably had a couple of years where he flirted with being in the top 2 key defenders. Has some poor finals.

Naughton I love but is not an A+ Key Forward.

Ryder has not had an A Grade career, very good career but not consistently top few in his position.

McEvoy, Ziebell, just not A Grade careers.

Equally you might be a bit generous with Redden and Seb Ross as A Grade careers.


So for the purposes of the debate I would just reduce it to something like this:

Picks 7, 8, 9

Highest echelon - Selwood, Serong.

Really strong careers - Lewis, Wines, Moore, Smith, Prestia, Vlastuin, Naughton, Young(can raise his rating yet)


Picks 25, 26, 27

Highest echelon - Merrett, Dunkley

Really strong careers - S Edwards, Darling, Viney

Where you can argue some of the A Graders in the pick 7-8-9 cohort are or will be A+, you probably cannot say that with the Edwards, Darling, Viney.


I don't know. I think it sort of supports my view that 2 picks in the mid 20's are almost, but not quite as likely to find you a needle shifter as 1 pick in the 7-9 range. This analysis seems to me to confirm the trading behaviour of the clubs, the value is mainly tilted to the side of one 7-9 range pick over 2 x mid 20's picks but not to the extent you would forever rule out doing a trade like North did with Richmond. If you get exceptional circumstances like a really strong draft v a really weak draft, or particular positional needs, you wouldn't rule that trade out based on the whole relevant history of the picks in question.

Please stop with all this hot air .. It's making my hair frizzy.

Nobody believes 2 picks in the mid 20's are worth pick 8 generally.

But there are specific cases where they might be.

Yep .... you finally got to where everyone else was standing ....


2016 is probably the only exception Logue (pick 8) for 2 of Parfitt (26), Lipinski (27) & Bolton (29) - All premiership players - is probably the only time in draft history that 2 picks in the late 20s was better than pick 8

 

[NZ_Tiger]

In the interview with Richo, Gieschen mentioned there were 'players we moved towards the top of the list a little bit more' on account of us needing speed and outside run.
It proves it's not always 'take the best available' for those who believe this type of pre-draft media fluff:

There’s always a matrix. If you don’t adjust it you’ll have a list of the same types of players.

It also has to be reviewed and iterated. This year we made speed a higher rated factor than say contested ball winning. This ensured we came away with speed while still sticking to our draft order.

We’ve done similar in previous drafts to make
Sure we take key positions players.

 

[RichmondEshays]

Grlj + Hotton = pace
Lalor + Cumming = pace + strength
Smillie + Kmac2 = strength

 

[dean33]

Did he say ' He has all the tools ' ?

Yes, also said he was a "likely type"

 

[dean33]

A few more snippets to help assess draft picks and ranges. Making an AA squad is a pretty good indication of a top-line season - in the top handful of players in the league for their position. Many players are capable of one-off excellent seasons to get a single AA squad selection, but once a player gets 2+ then they are more than just a B-grader who excelled for one season.

So here is the % of players who received 2 or more AA squad selections across their career (whether they make the team or not isn't factored in, they are just in the squad at least):

Pick 1: 40.91%

Pick 2: 40.91%

Pick 3-5: 19.70%

Pick 6-10: 16.36%

Pick 11-20: 14.09%

Pick 21-30: 6.36%

Pick 31-50: 6.67%

Pick 51-70: 2.45%

That one was just for you WABB

It further emphasises why a list is built over 6-7 x years and why you can't afford to sweat the misses too much.

If you had picks 3, 4 and 5 for 5 x consecutive drafts, so 15 x elite juniors....history tells you :

1. 11 of them will never make the final AA team.

2. Only 3 of 15 will make more than 1 x AA squad.

And more sobering than that...if you had picks 21-30 for 5 x consecutive drafts, so 50 x picks early in the second round:

1. 45 of them will never make an AA team.

2. Only 3 of 50 will make more than 1 x AA squad.


I guess all of this tells us why it's clear teams are willing to give multiple firsts for established elite players like Merrett, Butters, Petracca and Curnow. They are bloody hard to find. And when you get a Prestia for pick-6 or a TT for picks 12 and 21....it's a deadset bargain.

I imagine all these percentages increase depending on if the team is Geelong?

 

[_RT_]

In the interview with Richo, Gieschen mentioned there were 'players we moved towards the top of the list a little bit more' on account of us needing speed and outside run.
It proves it's not always 'take the best available' for those who believe this type of pre-draft media fluff:

IMO too many get caught up with the phrase best available literally meaning take the best available. If it was the case then every clubs draft board would look identical to each other, but they aren't, there are always slight differences as club take into account the type of players they need.

I believe that in the AFL all clubs work on a theory of taking the best available while also considering your list needs so it becomes a combination of the 2 approaches throughout the draft and it's also an approach I taken when looking at players I'd like to see us draft and I would encourage fans to take a similar approach when looking at the kids in the draft moving forward.

 

[DickieKnee]

Yes, also said he was a "likely type"

A likely type with all the tools sounds promising.

 

[THE THIN MAN]

A likely type with all the tools sounds promising.

 

[Toadvine]

So...he trained the the Bulldogs VFL but then ends up over in WA expected to sign with Subi.

Not a great sign he'll end up on an AFL list in 2026. Even in the MSD.

 

[THE_GUN]

So...he trained the the Bulldogs VFL but then ends up over in WA expected to sign with Subi.

Not a great sign he'll end up on an AFL list in 2026. Even in the MSD.

Seen as a 1 positional player with limited ability in the AFL

sounds like a Ben Lemon type

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Seen as a 1 positional player with limited ability in the AFL

sounds like a Ben Lemon type

 

[NZ_Tiger]

Seen as a 1 positional player with limited ability in the AFL

sounds like a Ben Lemon type

We called him out with a first.

 

[guruisatiger]

Pick 7s:
David Hale - A
Andrew Mackie - A
K Tenance - F
Jordan Lewis - A+
Patrick Ryder - A
Joel Selwood - A+
Rhys Palmer - C
Daniel Rich - A
Brad Sheppard - B+
Josh Caddy - B
Nick Haynes - B+
Ollie wines - A
James Aish - B
Paul Ahern - F
Jacob Hopper - B+
Jack Scrimshaw - B+
Hunter Clark - C
Bailey Smith - A
Hayden Young - A

Pick 9s:
L Molan - F
H McInotsh - B
D Trotter - F
J Russell - D
M Clark - C
D Armitage - B
B McEvoy - A
J Ziebell - A
A Moore - F
D Prestia - A
A Tomlinson - C
N Vlastuin - A+
C Salem - B+
D Moore - A+
S Weideman - D
W Brodie - D
A Naughton - A+
C Jones - C
L Henry - C

Pick 25s:
S Amstrong - D
C Urch - F
H Miller - F
A Hartlett - F
W Mills - F
N Djkerrkura - F
T Colllier - F
J Redden - A
A Black - F
P Karnezis - F
S Ross - A
S White - F
D Mcstay - B+
D Nielson - F
J Dunkley - A+
B Long - B+
N Balta - B+
J Rowbottom - B
J Mead - C

Pick 27s:
T Davidson - F
D Walsh - F
A Campbell - F
P Garner - F
D addison - D
B Howard - F
A Otten - D
S Wright - D
C Bartlett - F
K harper - F
S Kerridge - D
J Stewart - C
S Lemmens - C
L Webb - F
D Tucker - C
Z Fisher - C
B Daniels - B+
T Sparrow - C+
J Sharp - D

24 players from pick 7/9 that are B or higher. 5 complete fails.
8 players from 25/27 that are B or higher. 18 complete fails.

Oakley Nicholls wasn't a complete failure he did kick the winning behind at dream time at the g in 2006

 

[Ralll]

Interesting in the interview Yze's said his suggestion to the recruiters was to get the best players. Not based on how he saw the game (question was 'aligned with his gameplan'), rather solely how we rated them as players.
Bit different to Gieschen's 'players we moved towards the top of the list a little bit more' on account of us needing speed and outside run.
This is fine and working as intended imo, it's important the coach has his input but we have guys like Livingstone, Hartley and Geischen to make the final decisions.

 

[loser 81 2 16]

It’s ironic that the AFL talks about integrity while happily cozying up to betting agencies.

Now THAT's the understatement of this century...to date

 

[loser 81 2 16]

nice au coupe

I've been waiting for you to comment on that

Sadly...it's not mine...apparently only 6 of the chassis' were made by Ford...and none ever completed...by them at least.
Although I came across a guy at pick-a-part the other day...hacking away at the rear quarter panel of a BA sedan...and babbling something about putting the finishing touches to his BA XR6 turbo coupe masterpiece...apparently he's from Moorabbin?

Me...I'll just have to settle for the 7x stock AU sedans and wagons in my driveway...plus a BF2 RTV ute...and the m#ther f#cking eurotrash VW T5 van that caught fire the day before I could sell it

 

[Groupie_]

I've been waiting for you to comment on that

Sadly...it's not mine...apparently only 6 of the chassis' were made by Ford...and none ever completed...by them at least.
Although I came across a guy at pick-a-part the other day...hacking away at the rear quarter panel of a BA sedan...and babbling something about putting the finishing touches to his BA XR6 turbo coupe masterpiece...apparently he's from Moorabbin?

Me...I'll just have to settle for the 7x stock AU sedans and wagons in my driveway...plus a BF2 RTV ute...and the m#ther f#cking eurotrash VW T5 van that caught fire the day before I could sell it

t3 ts50 /te50

best looking au

and has to be the hero blueprint colour and manual !

 

[loser 81 2 16]

I agree he will definitely be a forward at AFL level and Josh Caddy is someone who I liken him to.

But...is he as much of a campaigner as Caddy?
That was always what I felt was Caddy's greatest contribution to the team.
Especially just on quarter time in the 2017 GF.
Although that year or two as a forward actually putting his rooster on the block and kicking goals from opportunities was a pleasure to behold.

 

[loser 81 2 16]

t3 ts50 /te50

best looking au

and has to be the hero blueprint colour and manual !

Have you got any of those?

While I love the sound of a windsor...the reality is...it doesn't provide much more power than an i6...especially with mods...and costs a lot more any way you look at it.
As a pauper...of the true working class Richmond flock ...I've stuck with the "Geelong" bred i6 using the original US block from 1960.
Apart from the omni present oil leaks it is a true piece of Australian manufacturing mastery

I do have a Blueprint XR6 ST sprint.
But my only T5 Manual is in a former Option 20 station vehicle.
Am planning to convert my SR wagon to an RTV...and the Option 20 to a turbo...finances willing...along with improvements to my mechanical aptitude.
I also have a collection of almost all the sedan body addon options (XR, Havoc, Bi-plane & Bobtail rear spoilers, etc). So was planning to change the dress code of my manual sedan every month or so for a bit of variety.

Everything needs a respray...and I'm having trouble deciding on a colour...and ideally they're both the same colour.
The RTV wagons with the factory bullbar look great in "Winter" White. And I love White paint because it's thermally efficient. And it's the only factory colour where you don't need a clear coat. And it's easier to spray for a novice.
However with the AU sedans...White is BORING !!!
I too love Blueprint...but it's sooo haaard to paint and get right.
My wagon is currently Venom Red...which I like in sedans...but it is like Black (bad) for thermal efficiency...and needs a clear coat.
I especially like "Silhouette" Black for sedans. It just looks menacing. Again poor for thermal efficiency. And not easy to paint. And needs clearcoat.
My Option 20 sedan is currently "Liquid" Silver. Which is thermally almost as good as White. But does need clear coat and is harder to spray. But is for some reason very easy to keep clean.
So many choices :/

 

[Groupie_]

Have you got any of those?

While I love the sound of a windsor...the reality is...it doesn't provide much more power than an i6...especially with mods...and costs a lot more any way you look at it.
As a pauper...of the true working class Richmond flock ...I've stuck with the "Geelong" bred i6 using the original US block from 1960.
Apart from the omni present oil leaks it is a true piece of Australian manufacturing mastery

I do have a blueprint XR6 ST sprint.
But my only T5 manual is in a former Option 20 station vehicle.
Am planning to convert my SR wagon to an RTV...and the Option 20 to a turbo...finances willing...along with improvements to my mechanical aptitude.
I also have a collection of almost all the sedan body addon options (XR, Havoc, Bi-plane & Bobtail rear spoilers, etc). So was planning to change the dress code of my manual sedan every month or so for a bit of variety.

Everything needs a respray...and I'm having trouble deciding on a colour...and ideally they're both the same colour.
The RTV wagons with the factory bullbar look great in "Winter" White. And I love White paint because it's thermally efficient. And it's the only factory colour where you don't need a clear coat. And it's easier to spray for a novice.
However with the AU sedans...White is BORING !!!
I too love Blueprint...but it's sooo haaard to paint and get right.
My wagon is currently Venom Red...which I like in sedans...but it is like Black (bad) for thermal efficiency...and needs a clear coat.
I especially like "Silhouette" Black for sedans. It just looks menacing. Again poor for thermal efficiency. And not easy to paint. And needs clearcoat.
My Option 20 sedan is currently "Liquid" Silver. Which is thermally almost as good as White. But does need clear coat and is harder to spray. But is for some reason very easy to keep clean.
So many choices :/

no not right now but used to have one

only got my au forte now

 

[Groupie_]

also have an xd but its off the road !! gonna do it up one day !!! i know what ive got

 

[Groupie_]

Have you got any of those?

While I love the sound of a windsor...the reality is...it doesn't provide much more power than an i6...especially with mods...and costs a lot more any way you look at it.
As a pauper...of the true working class Richmond flock ...I've stuck with the "Geelong" bred i6 using the original US block from 1960.
Apart from the omni present oil leaks it is a true piece of Australian manufacturing mastery

I do have a Blueprint XR6 ST sprint.
But my only T5 Manual is in a former Option 20 station vehicle.
Am planning to convert my SR wagon to an RTV...and the Option 20 to a turbo...finances willing...along with improvements to my mechanical aptitude.
I also have a collection of almost all the sedan body addon options (XR, Havoc, Bi-plane & Bobtail rear spoilers, etc). So was planning to change the dress code of my manual sedan every month or so for a bit of variety.

Everything needs a respray...and I'm having trouble deciding on a colour...and ideally they're both the same colour.
The RTV wagons with the factory bullbar look great in "Winter" White. And I love White paint because it's thermally efficient. And it's the only factory colour where you don't need a clear coat. And it's easier to spray for a novice.
However with the AU sedans...White is BORING !!!
I too love Blueprint...but it's sooo haaard to paint and get right.
My wagon is currently Venom Red...which I like in sedans...but it is like Black (bad) for thermal efficiency...and needs a clear coat.
I especially like "Silhouette" Black for sedans. It just looks menacing. Again poor for thermal efficiency. And not easy to paint. And needs clearcoat.
My Option 20 sedan is currently "Liquid" Silver. Which is thermally almost as good as White. But does need clear coat and is harder to spray. But is for some reason very easy to keep clean.
So many choices :/

the windsor in the t3 is stroked went hard

had a vt ss manual series II ls1 and the t3 would blow its doors off both stock

 

[loser 81 2 16]

no not right now but used to have one

only got my au forte now

also have an xd but its off the road !! gonna do it up one day !!! i know what ive got

the windsor in the t3 is stroked went hard

had a vt ss manual series II ls1 and the t3 would blow its doors off both stock

Ur gunna get me pinged for OT...so I'll make this my last comment.

You didn't tell me what colour I should paint both my AU sedan and wagon keepers?

Everything I've heard about the LS engines is that they're the ducks guts.
I would have thought for performance they'd leave a Windsor in their tracks. Although I've never experienced one "stroked"
I had a VN SS back in 89 and at the time it felt like it went like the clappers...although handled like sh!t...however I think that was a 308...well before the LS.

The XD and VB (gotta luv that model name) conformadore came out around the same time. I've never driven an XD. But had an XF wagon and it felt like a barge. Very similar to a Hemi VJ wagon. And so many cars of that time like an XC falcon. But the VB conformadore even with just a 243 V8 felt really nice to drive. It was a small car and felt small. But the AU falcon to me feels the same. Even for a larger car they really nailed the steering. Especially with the "sports" suspension.
When I was much younger, the old man had an XB fairmont with a Windsor and that sounded and felt great.

So the DD is a classic AU forte...I hope it's a series 1...with the whale teeth

 

[Groupie_]

Ur gunna get me pinged for OT...so I'll make this my last comment.

You didn't tell me what colour I should paint both my AU sedan and wagon keepers?

Everything I've heard about the LS engines is that they're the ducks guts.
I would have thought for performance they'd leave a Windsor in their tracks. Although I've never experienced one "stroked"
I had a VN SS back in 89 and at the time it felt like it went like the clappers...although handled like sh!t...however I think that was a 308...well before the LS.

The XD and VB (gotta luv that model name) conformadore came out around the same time. I've never driven an XD. But had an XF wagon and it felt like a barge. Very similar to a Hemi VJ wagon. And so many cars of that time like an XC falcon. But the VB conformadore even with just a 243 V8 felt really nice to drive. It was a small car and felt small. But the AU falcon to me feels the same. Even for a larger car they really nailed the steering. Especially with the "sports" suspension.
When I was much younger, the old man had an XB fairmont with a Windsor and that sounded and felt great.

So the DD is a classic AU forte...I hope it's a series 1...with the whale teeth

ive had a few ls1s. had a vt ss manual and vy ss auto

the vt ss was quick for the time but the windsor in the t3 being stroked felt way quicker but it was top of the range after all

I never raced it against a hsv but I reckon I wouldve beaten a vt II clubsport in it unless modded

my vy ss was quick but stock the t3 felt quicker . vy ss was 235 kw vs 250 in the 5.6 stroked windsor in the t3

the quickest car ive had is my fg turbo manual. crazy fast. dont know how campaigners do mods to barra turbos

paint ya au's the original colour . it would piss me off if I painted a car another colour lol