Draft Review 2025 AFL Draft General Discussion

[mrb1]

I’m hoping we try and trade for a future first with 9 and use 11 for points in some way. It guarantees us Walker or at worst some good trade capital for next season.

If there are no takers I’d be trying to trade with teams like Essendon, North etc for points this season and Future seconds.
If we could walk away with Dean, Ison and no deficit while getting potentially two more picks in the ~25 range next season I think that’s a much better result than trying to draft with pick 11.

Carlton should not trade for a future first. They already have two.

How do you know what guarantees Walker? The AFL have not confirmed the rules yet. They have already hinted that you may only be allowed to use two picks and you won't know how valuable Carlton's and Sydney's R1 picks are until the end of the 2026 season.

They should also not trade for two future seconds. A future second may be 36. With father-sons, academies and free agency compo that could push the future seconds into the 40s. Do you really want to trade a 2025 R1 pick for two 2026 R2 picks that may end up in the 40s? I don't.

Carlton has a lack of talent now. With its two picks 9 and 11 it will be able to match Dean and then get someone like Dovaston, Marsh or Ludowyke. Carlton need forwards. Take your pick. Don't delay the rebuild.

 

[eaglevision]

Carlton should not trade for a future first. They already have two.

How do you know what guarantees Walker? The AFL have not confirmed the rules yet. They have already hinted that you may only be allowed to use two picks and you won't know how valuable Carlton's and Sydney's R1 picks are until the end of the 2026 season.

They should also not trade for two future seconds. A future second may be 36. With father-sons, academies and free agency compo that could push the future seconds into the 40s. Do you really want to trade a 2025 R1 pick for two 2026 R2 picks that may end up in the 40s? Yuck.

Carlton has a lack of talent now. With its two picks 9 and 11 it will be able to match Dean and then get someone like Dovaston, Marsh or Ludowyke. Carlton need forwards. Take your pick. Don't delay the rebuild.

Have you seen Walker play? Carlton will cover as many bases as possible to get access to him. Would easily be pick 1 this year.

The AFL haven’t just hinted that you can only use two picks to match, they’ve said you can only use two picks to match.

Using 9 to get another good F1 and 11 to cover bids (or vice versa) on Dean and Ison to make sure they don’t go into a points deficit next year is almost certainly going to be the strategy they employ.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Carlton should not trade for a future first. They already have two.

How do you know what guarantees Walker? The AFL have not confirmed the rules yet. They have already hinted that you may only be allowed to use two picks and you won't know how valuable Carlton's and Sydney's R1 picks are until the end of the 2026 season.

They should also not trade for two future seconds. A future second may be 36. With father-sons, academies and free agency compo that could push the future seconds into the 40s. Do you really want to trade a 2025 R1 pick for two 2026 R2 picks that may end up in the 40s? I don't.

Carlton has a lack of talent now. With its two picks 9 and 11 it will be able to match Dean and then get someone like Dovaston, Marsh or Ludowyke. Carlton need forwards. Take your pick. Don't delay the rebuild.

That’s the point, we don’t know what Walker will cost.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Dean gets a bid from Essendon at ~5 then we are stuffed. Also if Ison gets an early bid and we carry a deficit we are stuffed or miss on him. For me trying to pick a player that will be rated around ~15 in a weak draft isn’t worth the risk.
Imo The only way we should hold the picks is if we think Dean might not attract a bid until after 12 on draft night so we can pick With what is currently 9

If we can get a future first we would be crazy not to take it imo.

 

[Hawks_Footy]

That’s the point, we don’t know what Walker will cost.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Dean gets a bid from Essendon at ~5 then we are stuffed. Also if Ison gets an early bid and we carry a deficit we are stuffed or miss on him. For me trying to pick a player that will be rated around ~15 in a weak draft isn’t worth the risk.
Imo The only way we should hold the picks is if we think Dean might not attract a bid until after 12 on draft night so we can pick With what is currently 9

If we can get a future first we would be crazy not to take it imo.

100% agree that if you get offered F1 for #9 pre draft you take it and run.. but I don't think you'll get an offer until at least that pick is on the clock and clubs would know if there guy is still on the board.

I think having 9&11 makes the situation difficult to navigate on draft night, your next best case scenario is taking the live pick at 9 before Dean bid (that's a 50/50 chance) and then getting to work on moving 11 back bit by bit for points to match on Dean & Ison bids!

The best option after that is probably trading with Dons/Dees to get ahead of the bid without losing much of your future hand but i'm not sure the difference between the guys available is really worth it..

If you roll the dice and a bid comes before #9 (likely #13 on the night) i think you'll just need to eat it up

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Have you seen Walker play? Carlton will cover as many bases as possible to get access to him. Would easily be pick 1 this year.

The AFL haven’t just hinted that you can only use two picks to match, they’ve said you can only use two picks to match.

Using 9 to get another good F1 and 11 to cover bids (or vice versa) on Dean and Ison to make sure they don’t go into a points deficit next year is almost certainly going to be the strategy they employ.

Nothing has been made public, its all just hearsay from Cal Twomey and media releases, the fact the trade period has come and gone where clubs like Carlton & Port would have had an opportunity to position themselves for future needs but the AFL still have not released the rules surely means there will be no change in 2026 and any change will commence 2027.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

100% agree that if you get offered F1 for #9 pre draft you take it and run.. but I don't think you'll get an offer until at least that pick is on the clock and clubs would know if there guy is still on the board.

I think having 9&11 makes the situation difficult to navigate on draft night, your next best case scenario is taking the live pick at 9 before Dean bid (that's a 50/50 chance) and then getting to work on moving 11 back bit by bit for points to match on Dean & Ison bids!

The best option after that is probably trading with Dons/Dees to get ahead of the bid without losing much of your future hand but i'm not sure the difference between the guys available is really worth it..

If you roll the dice and a bid comes before #9 (likely #13 on the night) i think you'll just need to eat it up

The best outcome for Carlton, and probably Essendon is a trade 9, 11 & 43 for 6, 21, 27 & 30 with an understanding that Essendon would not bid on Dean with either pick.

Carlton use pick 6 - Josh Lindsey or Sam Grilj
Then points from 21, 27 & 30 should be enough to get Dean & Ison.

 

[doug85]

The best outcome for Carlton, and probably Essendon is a trade 9, 11 & 43 for 6, 21, 27 & 30 with an understanding that Essendon would not bid on Dean with either pick.

Carlton use pick 6 - Josh Lindsey or Sam Grilj
Then points from 21, 27 & 30 should be enough to get Dean & Ison.

Although I wouldn’t be against this, according to Cal there probably won’t be any movement in the top 10. Apparently we’re the only team that might think about a trade up (although unlikely).

 

[mrb1]

That’s the point, we don’t know what Walker will cost.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Dean gets a bid from Essendon at ~5 then we are stuffed. Also if Ison gets an early bid and we carry a deficit we are stuffed or miss on him. For me trying to pick a player that will be rated around ~15 in a weak draft isn’t worth the risk.
Imo The only way we should hold the picks is if we think Dean might not attract a bid until after 12 on draft night so we can pick With what is currently 9

If we can get a future first we would be crazy not to take it imo.

So would you trade Pick 9 for a future first with Geelong, Brisbane, Gold Coast or Hawthorn? That would be crazy.

 

[mrb1]

100% agree that if you get offered F1 for #9 pre draft you take it and run.. but I don't think you'll get an offer until at least that pick is on the clock and clubs would know if there guy is still on the board.

I think having 9&11 makes the situation difficult to navigate on draft night, your next best case scenario is taking the live pick at 9 before Dean bid (that's a 50/50 chance) and then getting to work on moving 11 back bit by bit for points to match on Dean & Ison bids!

The best option after that is probably trading with Dons/Dees to get ahead of the bid without losing much of your future hand but i'm not sure the difference between the guys available is really worth it..

If you roll the dice and a bid comes before #9 (likely #13 on the night) i think you'll just need to eat it up

Why would you need to move Pick 11 back bit by bit?

If Dean doesn't get bid on before 9 then you have a free hit on best available which may be Grlj or Schubert. Then you match Dean at 10 or select him at 11. Picks 43 and 54 which will come in due to Gold Coast and Brisbane academy selections should be enough for Ison who will probably be bid on in the 30s.

If Dean is bid on before 9 then you match the bid and the AFL will slide 11 back as 9 will probably not be enough by its own. Our second pick will end up being in the 15-18 range where we can pick up Dovaston, Marsh or Ludowyke.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

So would you trade Pick 9 for a future first with Geelong, Brisbane, Gold Coast or Hawthorn? That would be crazy.

I would with a some points this season involved somewhere.
It would be a very handy to trade with next season.
I also think 9 gets you the 14th best player this year. Pick ~16 next year seems a better option.

 

[mrb1]

I would with a some points this season involved somewhere.
It would be a very handy to trade with next season.
I also think 9 gets you the 14th best player this year. Pick ~16 next year seems a better option.

I can only see three players getting bid on before Pick 9, that being Uwland, Patterson and Annable. That would take Pick 9 out to Pick 12. Who are the other two players that you think will be bid on before Pick 9?

I don't see any logic that says Pick 16 next year is better than Pick 12 this year.

You should never delay getting talent into your club. Use the picks now. Don't delay the rebuild.

 

[SurreyBlue]

That’s the point, we don’t know what Walker will cost.

There are a lot of what ifs. If Dean gets a bid from Essendon at ~5 then we are stuffed. Also if Ison gets an early bid and we carry a deficit we are stuffed or miss on him. For me trying to pick a player that will be rated around ~15 in a weak draft isn’t worth the risk.
Imo The only way we should hold the picks is if we think Dean might not attract a bid until after 12 on draft night so we can pick With what is currently 9

If we can get a future first we would be crazy not to take it imo.

AFL will screw us. We either stop them from making changes or bend over. Simply, Carlton can’t do or receive what other teams get given.

 

[mrb1]

The best outcome for Carlton, and probably Essendon is a trade 9, 11 & 43 for 6, 21, 27 & 30 with an understanding that Essendon would not bid on Dean with either pick.

Carlton use pick 6 - Josh Lindsey or Sam Grilj
Then points from 21, 27 & 30 should be enough to get Dean & Ison.

I don't think Essendon will agree to this.

Picks 9, 11 and 43 total 2744.
Picks 6, 21, 27 and 30 total 3367.

That is a gain of 623 points for nothing. Essendon need to match bids as well for their academy players.
If you take off Pick 30 then the difference is 169. Essendon might be prepared to do that.

Picks 21 and 27 total 1254. That won't be enough to get Dean and Ison.

Don't be greedy.

Match the Dean bid when it comes in or else have a free swing at 9 (12 after academies).

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I can only see three players getting bid on before Pick 9, that being Uwland, Patterson and Annable. That would take Pick 9 out to Pick 12. Who are the other two players that you think will be bid on before Pick 9?

I don't see any logic that says Pick 16 next year is better than Pick 12 this year.

You should never delay getting talent into your club. Use the picks now. Don't delay the rebuild.

Because I think Melbourne will atleast bid on Dean. So Dean will be in the first 12 and Hawthorn pick 13 than us 14. If Dean gets a bid before Melbourne than the Original pick 11 could get pushed further back from matching the bid into that 15-16 range.

 

[Keystone agony]

Hard to see what Carlton are doing

Id be very surprised if Carlton are happy to hold pick 6 with what Twomey said today about eagles a potential bid on Dean

Clubs rarely take that risk, and the other clubs rarely let you just trade ahead of a bid

Pies F1 + 39/45 for Pick 9 youd think is likely

But the other im not so sure, you wouldnt think theyd keep 1 and not the other

If im Essendon im not sure id want to give up 27, 30 and F2 for 11(15), but maybe the club sees it differently

The same for eagles or north

 

[Ura]

Hard to see what Carlton are doing

Id be very surprised if Carlton are happy to hold pick 6 with what Twomey said today about eagles a potential bid on Dean

Clubs rarely take that risk, and the other clubs rarely let you just trade ahead of a bid

Pies F1 + 39/45 for Pick 9 youd think is likely

But the other im not so sure, you wouldnt think theyd keep 1 and not the other

If im Essendon im not sure id want to give up 27, 30 and F2 for 11(15), but maybe the club sees it differently

The same for eagles or north

Clubs don’t want to trade into this draft. No value to it.

Pies pick a chance to be a top 10… even if it’s not Carlton pick 9 likely pushed out to 13 if all bids come in befor it.

Bombers and Dees only move would be up and not sure they would give enough to do it.

Starting to feel there is a real chance Eagles take a Robey at 2 which would piss off the tigers I imagine

 

[Keystone agony]

Clubs don’t want to trade into this draft. No value to it.

Pies pick a chance to be a top 10… even if it’s not Carlton pick 9 likely pushed out to 13 if all bids come in befor it.

Bombers and Dees only move would be up and not sure they would give enough to do it.

Starting to feel there is a real chance Eagles take a Robey at 2 which would piss off the tigers I imagine

It was heavily reported in trade period that pies were looking to trade into pick 9

Theres always a thought of buy now/pay later, but there is always a tipping point with what picks ect

CalT and Robey suggested tigers were the last club to interview Robey, so i dont think there as keen as people think, and if they are, theyve hidden it very well, however interviewing in front of everyone at the champs maybe not great for that theory

 

[nineteen eighty]

Very good point. Equalisation at work.

It may be frustrating for us, but that is how the competition should work imo.

You guys must be taking the p155 and have sucked me in. You're getting a free hit at one of the top kids in this years draft (now known as Annabelle) and have also been blessed with getting the Ashcrofts for free. And Fletcher. Haven't even checked what's coming through in your Academies for next year. And Gallop as another Academy kid.

I don't begrudge your flag. But the Academy kids for almost free stings.

Equalisation at work

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You guys must be taking the p155 and have sucked me in. You're getting a free hit at one of the top kids in this years draft (now known as Annabelle) and have also been blessed with getting the Ashcrofts for free. And Fletcher. Haven't even checked what's coming through in your Academies for next year. And Gallop as another Academy kid.

I don't begrudge your flag. But the Academy kids for almost free stings.

Equalisation at work

Of course they're taking the piss, and you took the bait.

 

[Hawks_Footy]

Why would you need to move Pick 11 back bit by bit?

If Dean doesn't get bid on before 9 then you have a free hit on best available which may be Grlj or Schubert. Then you match Dean at 10 or select him at 11. Picks 43 and 54 which will come in due to Gold Coast and Brisbane academy selections should be enough for Ison who will probably be bid on in the 30s.

If Dean is bid on before 9 then you match the bid and the AFL will slide 11 back as 9 will probably not be enough by its own. Our second pick will end up being in the 15-18 range where we can pick up Dovaston, Marsh or Ludowyke.

Move it back bit by bit was to collect max. points, suggesting WC move from 13 to 11 by throwing in pick 51 (really mid 40s), then Crows move from 16 to 13 by trading a similar pick... you get my drift

 

[briztoon]

Move it back bit by bit was to collect max. points, suggesting WC move from 13 to 11 by throwing in pick 51 (really mid 40s), then Crows move from 16 to 13 by trading a similar pick... you get my drift

Otherwise known as points farming.

 

[mrb1]

Move it back bit by bit was to collect max. points, suggesting WC move from 13 to 11 by throwing in pick 51 (really mid 40s), then Crows move from 16 to 13 by trading a similar pick... you get my drift

I understand.

I'm sure not it's going to happen that way. If Dean is still available at 11 then they're likely to trade for lower picks once and be done with that.

Then see how low the picks go before a Dean bid comes in.

The key is not to lose total points value when you trade down.

 

[Stamos]

The AFL haven’t just hinted that you can only use two picks to match, they’ve said you can only use two picks to match.

Certainly not officially they haven't.

 

[Stamos]

Hard to see what Carlton are doing

Yeah, we still haven't announced our final list changes, we have to cut 2-3 more players.
That number will likely indicate our strategy, whether it's to take a second 1st round player along with Dean, or to trade out one of our 1sts to 2026.
I think it will be the former. And, if it is the latter, we would want to do the trade before the draft, not live.

Id be very surprised if Carlton are happy to hold pick 6 with what Twomey said today about eagles a potential bid on Dean

Clubs rarely take that risk, and the other clubs rarely let you just trade ahead of a bid

Pies F1 + 39/45 for Pick 9 youd think is likely

But the other im not so sure, you wouldnt think theyd keep 1 and not the other

If im Essendon im not sure id want to give up 27, 30 and F2 for 11(15), but maybe the club sees it differently

The same for eagles or north

We won't hold 6.
If Essendon wanted to trade with us, it would be a live trade and Dean would obviously have to still be on the board.

I think the deal that would make sense for both clubs, again if Essendon wanted the trade, would be:

6 + 21 + 27 for 9 + 11

These picks would move to end up being roughly 9 + 21(or 22) + 25 for 12 + 14 (but then Essendon's 30 would become 25).

 

[Keystone agony]

6 + 21 + 27 for 9 + 11

These picks would move to end up being roughly 9 + 21(or 22) + 25 for 12 + 14 (but then Essendon's 30 would become 25).

Id need more than that if were helping you guys move ahead of a bid

Probs want an F2 included