AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 20

[balmainforever]

 

[Cuzz09]

gc v Bris
gws v syd

are good

the rest are

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

getting 49 possessions again?

Taking the 23’s at PB to find out.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Dear 4,5,6 @ 12,35,125

Moir 3,4 @ 19,90

365

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

****ing Dear

If only he knew how to kick a ball after playing all his life

 

[TheCatsMan]

On this one tonight - Thoughts for Syd GWS?

 

[desTROY]

Why has this sub gone so quiet? Have people moved elsewhere or everyone has done their dough this year..

 

[Areyoufireal]

LLoyd 1/2/3 @ 2.50 / 10.50 / 51 SB

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is Jy Farrar up front for GC?

 

[HTPunter]

Is Jy Farrar up front for GC?

No inside word BUT

in for Walter
Named full forward
Scoring shot in his last 7 VFL games - and 3+ scoring shots in 6 of them

Think it’s a certainty he plays forward

Last 7 games in VFL btw

3.2, 5.0, 0.1, 0.3, 4.0, 2.3, 2.3

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Knew I shouldn’t have cashed out my Jy Farrar bets after his first….

 

[Suncraze]

Freo -49.5 TAB

 

[Modra6]

Will Dawson named forward? Any chance he’s there?

 

[Suncraze]

Freo -49.5 TAB

Actually makes you want to give up the punt - 36 scoring shots to 17 and they don't cover by 0.5

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

PB didnt offer over 8 goals for Cameron….

 

[srobbo]

Actually makes you want to give up the punt - 36 scoring shots to 17 and they don't cover by 0.5

Take alternate lines. Might concede a bit of value but gives a little wriggle room when the above bs happens.

 

[barcode_hairstyle]

TAB Max Hall 19+ 2.70 for Round 21. You'd think coach gives him the opportunity in the middle again after last week

 

[Jugada]

Take alternate lines. Might concede a bit of value but gives a little wriggle room when the above bs happens.

Nah trading a slightly better strike rate for less long term profit is never the way to go

 

[srobbo]

Nah trading a slightly better strike rate for less long term profit is never the way to go

Lines are set by bookies for a reason & it’s not so punters win. I’ve experienced far better returns with alternate lines

 

[Jugada]

Lines are set by bookies for a reason & it’s not so punters win. I’ve experienced far better returns with alternate lines

Lines, H2Hs and Totals are the least profitable bet types for bookmakers. The alt lines, alt totals, goals etc are set at a much bigger house edge. Bookies love the PYOL punters

No one can experience far better returns taking 1.83 lines compared to 1.90 lines over time

 

[based]

Lines are set by bookies for a reason & it’s not so punters win. I’ve experienced far better returns with alternate lines

you do realise taking a worse price for a better line is either exactly the same or worse as the original line?

 

[srobbo]

you do realise taking a worse price for a better line is either exactly the same or worse as the original line?

That’s assuming the original line gets up. I prefer to customise my bets to align with my predictions & increase my overall profitability, not betting a house line which a bookie has set unless my view of a game exceeds the line.

 

[based]

That’s assuming the original line gets up.

its not assuming that at all but ok

you arent improving your profitability either but you do you

 

[Jugada]

That’s assuming the original line gets up. I prefer to customise my bets to align with my predictions & increase my overall profitability, not betting a house line which a bookie has set unless my view of a game exceeds the line.

Not arguing to be a dick but you are just wrong if you think taking alt lines at effectively 1.83 each can net more long term profit than just taking regular 1.90 lines. No matter what alt line you are taking it is still the "house line" but you are just buying or selling points at a much worse rate. It's all still factored on whatever the actual game line is though

 

[srobbo]

its not assuming that at all but ok

you arent improving your profitability either but you do you

You're not improving your profitability if you’re not covering the line are you? You don’t bank margin if you’re not winning. I understand the concept of compromising value by buying pts, I don’t you need you to explain that.

My point is I’ve had far more success playing alt lines than full lines. Perhaps at a lower profit but a higher chance of winning, particularly in multi betting.