balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 20
- Thread starter balmainforever
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- Sep 21, 2004
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gc v Bris
gws v syd
are good
the rest are
gws v syd
are good
the rest are
Dear 4,5,6 @ 12,35,125
Moir 3,4 @ 19,90
365
Moir 3,4 @ 19,90
365
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****ing Dear
If only he knew how to kick a ball after playing all his life
If only he knew how to kick a ball after playing all his life
TheCatsMan
Debutant
On this one tonight - Thoughts for Syd GWS?
LLoyd 1/2/3 @ 2.50 / 10.50 / 51 SB
Is Jy Farrar up front for GC?
No inside word BUT
in for Walter
Named full forward
Scoring shot in his last 7 VFL games - and 3+ scoring shots in 6 of them
Think it’s a certainty he plays forward
Last 7 games in VFL btw
3.2, 5.0, 0.1, 0.3, 4.0, 2.3, 2.3
Knew I shouldn’t have cashed out my Jy Farrar bets after his first….
Modra6
Debutant
Will Dawson named forward? Any chance he’s there?
Actually makes you want to give up the punt - 36 scoring shots to 17 and they don't cover by 0.5
PB didnt offer over 8 goals for Cameron….
Take alternate lines. Might concede a bit of value but gives a little wriggle room when the above bs happens.
barcode_hairstyle
Rookie
- Jun 7, 2024
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TAB Max Hall 19+ 2.70 for Round 21. You'd think coach gives him the opportunity in the middle again after last week
Nah trading a slightly better strike rate for less long term profit is never the way to go
Lines are set by bookies for a reason & it’s not so punters win. I’ve experienced far better returns with alternate lines
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Lines, H2Hs and Totals are the least profitable bet types for bookmakers. The alt lines, alt totals, goals etc are set at a much bigger house edge. Bookies love the PYOL punters
No one can experience far better returns taking 1.83 lines compared to 1.90 lines over time
you do realise taking a worse price for a better line is either exactly the same or worse as the original line?
That’s assuming the original line gets up. I prefer to customise my bets to align with my predictions & increase my overall profitability, not betting a house line which a bookie has set unless my view of a game exceeds the line.
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its not assuming that at all but ok
you arent improving your profitability either but you do you
Not arguing to be a dick but you are just wrong if you think taking alt lines at effectively 1.83 each can net more long term profit than just taking regular 1.90 lines. No matter what alt line you are taking it is still the "house line" but you are just buying or selling points at a much worse rate. It's all still factored on whatever the actual game line is though
You're not improving your profitability if you’re not covering the line are you? You don’t bank margin if you’re not winning. I understand the concept of compromising value by buying pts, I don’t you need you to explain that.
My point is I’ve had far more success playing alt lines than full lines. Perhaps at a lower profit but a higher chance of winning, particularly in multi betting.
