2025 Classics

[eth-dog]

Paris-Roubaix, AKA the Queen of the Classics, AKA The Hell of the North, is on next Sunday. SBS coverage commences at 7:05pm AEST, so I assume they're covering the race from start to finish.

The race is 259.2km in length, with 30x cobblestone sectors, plus the 300m ceremonial sector just outside the stadium at Roubaix. The longest sectors are #28 & #17, both 3700m in length. As always, the hardest (5-star) sectors will be #19 Trouee D'Arenberg, #11 Mons-en-Pevele, and #4 Carrefour-de-L'Arbre.

The first cobblestone sector comes ~95km into the race, so you can probably skip/fast forward the first 85km. After that, the action comes thick & fast.

The route map is shown below:

Race organisers have added 2 new sectors, #23 and #24, both before the Trouee D'Arenberg. More importantly, they've changed the approach to the Arenberg forest for the 2nd year running. Last year they made the riders go through a chicane, just before entering the forest. This year they're diverting them using existing roads instead:

The objective here is to slow the riders down, making it safer for them as they enter the Arenberg forest.

The last 2 editions have been won by MVDP, in dominant fashion. This year he'll have a new contender, in Tadej Pogacar, as the Pog attempts to "complete" cycling. Pog has done really well on the cobblestone stages in the Tour de France, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the Hell of the North. Other possible contenders include Top Ganna, Mads Pedersen, and WVA, though history does suggest that this is one race where rank outsiders do have a chance (e.g. Matt Hayman) - though things would have to go drastically wrong for MVDP & Pog for this to eventuate.

Gonna say it now, Pog won't finish top 10. Hell, probably not top 20. Completely wrong type of race for him and whilst he's been good on the cobbles in the tour, Roubaix is a completely different ball game. He's been fighting Roglic, Vingegaard etc there and not Ganna, MVDP, WVA etc.

 

[99 Problems]

Best Wout has looked in a very long time last night was nice to see. MVDP still the clear favourite but Roubaix shaping up to be a cracking race.

I’ve got no doubt Pog wins it one day and he’s the wildcard this year. Mads is stronger than ever, Wout might be getting back to his best and there’s another dozen or so really good chances if MVDP runs into any problems.

 

[Orange Agent]

Gonna say it now, Pog won't finish top 10. Hell, probably not top 20. Completely wrong type of race for him and whilst he's been good on the cobbles in the tour, Roubaix is a completely different ball game. He's been fighting Roglic, Vingegaard etc there and not Ganna, MVDP, WVA etc.

The only way he doesn't finish on the podium is if he crashes or has bad luck with mechanicals. There is no rider in the world that comes close to his bunch positioning and when it comes to Roubaix, it's critical to get this right. Each time someone has to burn matches to close gaps like MVDP did on the weekend, the weaker they are at the finish.

 

[eth-dog]

The only way he doesn't finish on the podium is if he crashes or has bad luck with mechanicals. There is no rider in the world that comes close to his bunch positioning and when it comes to Roubaix, it's critical to get this right. Each time someone has to burn matches to close gaps like MVDP did on the weekend, the weaker they are at the finish.

Time will tell, but I think he's gonna get spanked. He doesn't have the pure power to deliver the watts the likes of MvdP, Wout, Ganna, Pederson, Girmay etc can over the cobbles. He's an unbelievable rider but he needs the hills to sap the legs of these guys effectively

 

[largebus]

FWIW rain is forecast in the area on Sunday

 

[Orange Agent]

Already excited, 160k to go.

 

[largebus]

Pogi crashes, even if he somehow gets back he won't have energy left.

 

[Orange Agent]

He looked average when it was just the three of them but still good enough to get rid of Jasper. His ride through the Arenberg was legendary. Fair debut but MVDP has been too good. UAE as a team was pretty poor today.

 

[largebus]

"He won't ride Roubaix"
"Won't finish top 20"
"Won't finish top 10"
I'd be very surprised if he doesn't win a Roubaix cobble by the end of his career.

 

[99 Problems]

Yeah disappointing that the crash was the moment it was decided but MVDP was the deserving winner and looked the strongest on the day. Still an unreal ride from Pog on his first attempt at it.

It’s a bit predictable but it is great to watch two of the greatest classics riders of all time battle it out across multiple races. They are so far ahead of everyone else these days.

 

[eth-dog]

"He won't ride Roubaix"
"Won't finish top 20"
"Won't finish top 10"
I'd be very surprised if he doesn't win a Roubaix cobble by the end of his career.

Yeah I got that wrong. I wasn't doubting his quality but I thought he'd need to change many things with his body to do anything with the lack of hills. Mathieu is the clear pick for this it feels every year though

 

[Over The Post]

So shitted, in NZ at the moment and couldn't get coverage. SBS "not available in your country" and the work VPN didn't help.

 

[eth-dog]

So shitted, in NZ at the moment and couldn't get coverage. SBS "not available in your country" and the work VPN didn't help.

Maybe subscribe to StayLive? Only $6 a month

 

[eth-dog]

Amstel Gold Race on tomorrow night on SBS, coverage for the women's race on Viceland from 9, men's coverage from 10:35 once the women are done.

Tadej and Remco the obvious favourites. Can Pidcock spoil the party two years in a row? Hirschi and Alaphilippe are going to be a dangerous duo for Tudor. Schmid my smokie for this.

 

[eth-dog]

Remco might be able to spoil the party for Tadej here, however unlikely

 

[eth-dog]

He's human (technically). I think we're seeing the fatigue over riding UAE, Strade, MSR, Flanders and Roubaix, the classics in particular.

He's riding Fleche, after this I actually think he needs to rest and attack LBL with fresh legs.

Also Mattias dropping a couple of f-bombs in the interview is refreshing

 

[Orange Agent]

Agree he looks fatigued but without Remco closing the gap he would have won by a minute. Skjelmose wasn't gonna make it across by himself and the chasing group coordination was a joke. I think Pogi will be better next week but the question is does he bother with triple crown off the table. He needs to stop using up his whole team so early in races.

 

[eth-dog]

Agree he looks fatigued but without Remco closing the gap he would have won by a minute. Skjelmose wasn't gonna make it across by himself and the chasing group coordination was a joke. I think Pogi will be better next week but the question is does he bother with triple crown off the table. He needs to stop using up his whole team so early in races.

Yep. Give Christen or McNulty a chance at Fleche and concentrate on the last monument for spring on Sunday.

 

[largebus]

2025 Pogi is clearly a touch below the level of 2024 Pogi.

 

[99 Problems]

He wasn’t at 100% last night given how much racing he’s been doing but he still wins if Alaphalippe didn’t blow the race up with that attack. It was an unreal burst and even put Pog under real stress but no idea why he did it given he was always going to blow up as a result of it and he quickly dropped through the field. It was really impressive Pog kept solo as long as he did given how deep in the red that had put him, but in hindsight he would’ve been better off folding back into the front group after the attack.

 

[eth-dog]

He wasn’t at 100% last night given how much racing he’s been doing but he still wins if Alaphalippe didn’t blow the race up with that attack. It was an unreal burst and even put Pog under real stress but no idea why he did it given he was always going to blow up as a result of it and he quickly dropped through the field. It was really impressive Pog kept solo as long as he did given how deep in the red that had put him, but in hindsight he would’ve been better off folding back into the front group after the attack.

To put Pogi under stress and try to set it up for Hirschi

 

[eth-dog]

So disappointing for Mattias there.

 

[eth-dog]

What do you call a hill with an UTI?
Mur de Huy (Murder wee)

 

[eth-dog]

What do you call a hill with an UTI?
Mur de Huy (Murder wee)

Screw you all, that's gold.

Anyway, he's genuinely unbelieveable. UAE played it masterfully, kept tickets in the bank for Sunday and just let him do a seated acceleration with 600 metres left. And he won by 10 seconds. He's a freak. Apparently the largest margin ever when they're all together on the Mur de Huy for over 20 years or something

The Norway TTT mens leg were excellent as well, yoyoing off the front.

 

[Orange Agent]

The conditions made the time slow but don't see many riders putting 10 seconds into everybody on that finish. LBL looking like a 2 horse race, be interesting to see the tactic of where to attack because Remco can chase him down on that terrain. UAE might need some numbers up the road to help out.