Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[teddy-hopkins]

WC bid on Dean at 3 as that’s where they rated him.

They also thought trading a F2 for a 1 place gain in a weak draft was a good idea.

They screwed us out of a pick in the teens. Not the end of the world but they're on my shtlist now.

 

[Blue Ratts]

I think Smiley nominated himself as #1 last year too.

Obviously most kids - in the back of their mind - would be backing themselves to be the best player in the draft. These are super confident kids. But to actually say it openly is pretty dumb as, rightly or wrongly, it attracts a lot of negativity.

The goal is to get yourself drafted as high as possible so this at least indicates a level of stupidity in my view.

Yeah I get what your saying, but lets face it, we are old. The old dont mind a bit of confidence verses you have to earn it, is gone. These kids are just that, Kids, probably more attuned for success than we ever were. More focused, more professional and more pressured. Probably agreeing with you here, just a few choice words gone wrong. These kids are young footballers, not necessarily educated in the argy bargy of footbalking media which is intense. Its a massive learning curve not just footbaling wise

 

[Worm4]

They also thought trading a F2 for a 1 place gain in a weak draft was a good idea.

They screwed us out of a pick in the teens. Not the end of the world but they're on my shtlist now.

What goes around comes around.
They wont be getting help from us down the track. You can put st kilda in the same group as well.

 

[ctwenty1]

They also thought trading a F2 for a 1 place gain in a weak draft was a good idea.

They screwed us out of a pick in the teens. Not the end of the world but they're on my shtlist now.

Did they not get hawthorn’s pick f2 back?

 

[Jimmae]

Greeves just doesn't have the acceleration. Nothing like Darcy Fogarty.

Good solid footballer though. Certainly body-wise looks ready to play AFL.

I suspect we take a taller guy though.

Respectfully, no. Go back and take a proper look, and then look again at Fogarty at the same age, coming in overweight and with a knee issue.

The kid is very good, it's just a league that wants to get quicker again and they're all overlooking him for silly reasons while grabbing Oskar Taylor at pick 15.

 

[carlton_99]

If North/Dogs are going to bid and let us know prior we can always just trade out 28 for a F2 anyway. Then let the left over picks match the bid. Would be a tiny deficit - assuming it won't impact our F1 picks? How does it work when the deficit is so small it's not enough to drop a first round pick down one?

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Taking all the emotion out if it, I still don't understand what West Coast did today with their bidding. If their aim was to get Beau Addinsall off the Gold Coast why didn't they bin on Dylan Patterson? Thats around 400-500 points that GC didn't have to find. Why did they bid on Dean? It resulted in our first two picks getting used by North and Essendon instead of being absorbed into a bid, which in turn meant their third pick lost about 100 points in value. With back to back bids that around 200 points in value that Gold Coast didn't have to match

They must be really stupid. It would explain their list management decisions lately.

Let's not forget they gave up a F2 to skip ahead of hawthorn - the only possible reason for that is they thought haw were keen on Addinsall too. Then they miss on Addinsall because they can't add up points on a calculator.

Genius.

Can you imagine the meltdown on here if it was Austin doing that?

 

[Premiership Quarter]

Greeves, NHH and Thredgold the 3 I like (in that order). Really hoping no one bids early tomorrow night and we are a chance with 1 of these 3.

Now that would be a great draft outcome after so many thought this draft period was all doom and gloom

Would be a waste to lose 28 which is what we got from Essendon (21) in the pick 9 trade rather than have everything gobbled up. We only need a small draft move to cover the points surely we can make it happen and not risk losing 28

 

[The Bighouse]

I just remembered we traded with North (feels like it happened 3 months ago). Maybe they won't bid... Would still leave Dogs regardless but it could be something

You do a trade or pick swap and it’s automatic barlese, no touching!

WCE must have forgotten our generosity to them last trade period and a little goal sneak in Matt Owies..
Aggrieved on Chesser perhaps. We should get our pick back for their skullduggery.

 

[Blue Ratts]

If North/Dogs are going to bid and let us know prior we can always just trade out 28 for a F2 anyway. Then let the left over picks match the bid. Would be a tiny deficit - assuming it won't impact our F1 pick. How does it work when the deficit is so small it's not enough to drop a first round pick down one?

Thinking we have our priorities ticked. Dean, Ison and Cody matched.if we have enough to hold those, can feel another move tomorrow

 

[MileHigh]

Worst case scenario,

North and Dogs don't bid on anyone else and take their two live picks.

We take a player with #28.

Eagles bid on Ison with pick #29 = 479pts.

479 - 84(flat discount) = 395pts required.

pick 38 + 44 = 277 + 167 = 444pts.

444 - 395 = 49pts

So, not only do we have enough, we get pick 52 back as well.

Thats is dynamite. Thanks Blue_Fusion for that summary. Much appreciated.

 

[Premiership Quarter]

Scenario 1: Bid before our pick 28.
Norf bid on Ison. Match with 28, get pick 53 back.
WB bid on Ison. Match with 28, get pick 52 back.
In either case, we have picks 38, 44 and 52/53 remaining. We'll only use 38, and it's unlikely we'll be able to trade up, nor trade those picks out for a future. Bit of a waste.

Scenario 2: No bid before our pick 28.
We use 28 on best available.
Later bid on Ison can be matched with 38 and 44. Remainder goes to waste.

Scenario 3: Trade 28 down for better 3rd pick
Idea being to trade 28 down a few places in order to get a 3rd pick earlier than 38.
Very limited opportunity. WC have 29 and 34. Pies 32 and 37.

Scenario 4: Trade 28 out for a future.
Gives us another pick next year, likely a late 2nd round. Very handy, given it's likely to be a strong draft.
Match Ison with 38 and 44 as above.
Depending on where the Ison bid comes, we'll have a 3rd pick somewhere between 38 and about 52.

Scenario 5: Trade 28 down for a future.
e.g. 28 for Pies 32. Get a minor future pick from them.
A bit meh, but maybe.

Strategy:
Wait on Scenario 2 above. If bid comes in, move to Scenario 4 or 5, which would need to be prepared beforehand.


Edit: Missed one.
Scenario 6: Trade up.
Swap 28 for Norf's 26 and whatever else will be required, prob have to give them back their F2.
Gives us our pick of the crop, Norf only drop 2 places, so should be attractive for them.
And again, we still match Ison with 38 and 44.

Scenario 7: Upgrade 38 or 44 a few spots so those picks combined can match ISON bid.

 

[Premiership Quarter]

Shit.. I was reading the 2024 DVI...

It's going to be very difficult, I think people are underestimating how hard it will be if they introduce the bullshit rules that are rumoured...

Seriously though... can't possibly make drastic changes like that after this year's trade period ended... there will be quite a few clubs fighting the 2 picks only rule... us, Port, Ess ...

Probably another reason we pulled the trigger on trading 11 for North's 25 + F2.

Gives us the option of combining F2 with F1(Swans) to move up the 1st round. In a strong draft, there should be takers.

Also say Walker comes in at pick three our pick is looking like about 6 at this stage and we have the Sydney pick. The only way walker isn’t already covered is if we gave a blinder of a year

 

[marcmurphy3]

Also say Walker comes in at pick three our pick is looking like about 6 at this stage and we have the Sydney pick. The only way walker isn’t already covered is if we gave a blinder of a year

I think we are going to be ok if its anything other then 1. Pick 1 could pose a problem.

 

[The Blueseum]

Does CD ever not wear a jacket?

I sat next to him at a Spirit of Carlton meeting couple of weeks ago, had the jacket and collar up, it's the signature look.

Had a good chat, very nice person, clearly intelligent and funny as well. Club has chosen well by the looks of it.

 

[TerryWallet]

My purely gut feel preference if we get the pick before Ison is for us to draft Hetherton. I don't have a good feeling for Ludowick for some reason. Emmett would be alright but we've got HOK and Reidy already.

I think Thredgold is clearly the best pick left but we've got our backline sorted now. Thredgold looks a real solid backman, but only a backman.

I'd go the KPF with big upside, and to me, that's Hetherton over Archie.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Did they not get hawthorn’s pick f2 back?

No. They gave up the F2 tied to StK for literally nothing.

 

[ctwenty1]

I think they legitimately did it just to get us back for Chesser. Otherwise it makes no sense because it actually hurt their draft hand.

Surely they can’t be that dumb and spiteful

I think they actually may have done it because we didn’t want to trade 9 for their 13 and 34 despite threatening to pick Dean early.

We said no to their shitty deal and they said right- pick 3 it is

As gandaal has pointed out their strategy was flawed as they could’ve had the GC player , and held on to their f2, if they had bid properly

Expect someone at the eagles LM team won’t be there next year. Or maybe they just expect more compensation form the afl?

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Respectfully, no. Go back and take a proper look, and then look again at Fogarty at the same age, coming in overweight and with a knee issue.

The kid is very good, it's just a league that wants to get quicker again and they're all overlooking him for silly reasons while grabbing Oskar Taylor at pick 15.

Fogarty was a pick 12 in a reasonably strong draft. Greeves is sitting there undrafted after 25 picks in a weak draft. Respectfully, I can't see the pace.

I'm not a fan of Thredgold either. Absolute beauty in the air and athletically. But I get nervous every time he kicks.

After watching our ball-butchers over the past 12 months those sort of players just scare me.

 

[The Bighouse]

My purely gut feel preference if we get the pick before Ison is for us to draft Hetherton. I don't have a good feeling for Ludowick for some reason. Emmett would be alright but we've got HOK and Reidy already.

I think Thredgold is clearly the best pick left but we've got our backline sorted now. Thredgold looks a real solid backman, but only a backman.

I'd go the KPF with big upside, and to me, that's Hetherton over Archie.

Thredgold KPD
HOF moved to KPF?

 

[Stamos]

Shit.. I was reading the 2024 DVI...

It's going to be very difficult, I think people are underestimating how hard it will be if they introduce the bullshit rules that are rumoured...

Seriously though... can't possibly make drastic changes like that after this year's trade period ended... there will be quite a few clubs fighting the 2 picks only rule... us, Port, Ess ...

Probably another reason we pulled the trigger on trading 11 for North's 25 + F2.

Gives us the option of combining F2 with F1(Swans) to move up the 1st round. In a strong draft, there should be takers.

People (including the AFL it seems) are underestimating the changes they brought in for this year.
To change it again immediately would be absurd.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

I don’t see it with Ludo.

I’m all aboard the Greeves train.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Yeh Dogs still the main worry imo. Maybe Power can sweet talk Power for us

You mean the Power who just left us?

 

[Beyond Blue]

I respect Cals accuracy in his Phantoms, but **** me it destroys the theatre of draft night.

He knows his stuff but must get very good mail. No one is that good at picking it

It’s accurate because of the inside information he gets from the clubs not because he is some sort of talent ID guru.

 

[Jimmae]

Did they not get hawthorn’s pick f2 back?

No, that went out the door earlier in a pick swap that included Brisbane's future 1st.