Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Benaly28]

There is belief then there is delusion. Being part of a Team is the key

He’ll fit into the saints seemlessly.

 

[Benaly28]

Likely that north will trade 26 with clubs keen to have first pick tonight. Unlikely we have the picks to match what other clubs will offer.
Unlikely any club trading up to 26 will be doing that to target Ison.
Still a chance the Bulldogs bid at 27.

99% dogs bid on Ison,Roos will take a defender.

 

[marcmurphy3]

99% dogs bid on Ison,Roos will take a defender.

Knowledge or just guessing?

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

99% dogs bid on Ison,Roos will take a defender.

Source?

 

[Benaly28]

Source?

Reasonable

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Chris Cavanagh saying he doesn’t expect a bid for Ison to come before our pick 28 and we’ve been linked with Ludowyke and Philipou.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Chris Cavanagh saying he doesn’t expect a bid for Ison to come before our pick 28 and we’ve been linked with Ludowyke and Philipou.

Would be happy with either of those guys.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Atkins and Budarick are hardly great loses.
Lukocoius hasn't achieved great heights relieving their salary cap.

My point is they have bought in 4 first round draft picks whilst also bringing in Rioli and Noble the year prior. Plus they brought in a champion like Petracca while losing very little in terms of quality players.

Don't think our list managers could of done much more once they realised a bid was coming for Dean Inside the top 3. They were effectively placed in a corner.

Atkins and Budarick were the steak knives of the overall deals.

Lukosius isn't a great loss, but he still netted them a 1st for this year effectively. Port wouldn't have projected they'd finish as low as they did this year given where they finished 2024 on the ladder at the time of the trade, they probably figured it'd be a pick around the 15+ mark... GC got lucky with that.

While they didn't lose too many quality players, they lost a boat load of top draft picks.

 

[Large Hawaiian]

It holds some value but hawthorn showed last night how easily 2nd round picks can be acquired.

If you lose Curnow, Dekoning and Silvagni in one off season we should have been easily able to get the necessary collateral to cover Dean plus a lot more however we’ve essentially walked away with Dean, Hayward ( who I rate as a player) then some minor pick upgrades in the next two drafts. The 3 first round picks for Charlie are a myth if you look closely.

Have a look at what the swans 2027 first round pick will look like if they finish top 4 which is a good chance once you take into account the Tasmania concessions. Tassie get to auction off up to 4 mini-draft players eg. (Jessie hogan, Jack Martin) rule . They get access to pre list 17 year olds (Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel) rule let’s say conservatively they list 7/8 that’s already 10 plus players taken out of the 2027 draft pool.

They also get access to any uncontracted players limited to 1 per club and the AFL will hand out compensation picks lets say they take 10 players that first year thats 10 places further the swans pick gets pushed back, then again conservatively add 6/7 academy or father sons. Then add other clubs free agency compo picks the 2027 swans pick we will be picking up a player in their 18th year who would be normally ranked in the low to mid 40s.

We could of and should of got a lot more.

Take a breath bud.

 

[Sector 7G]

The same AFL who are roundly criticised around here for mismanagement of the game in many different ways? It would require a massive reorganisation by them to develop the capability to take on the grassroots player development being performed by the academies. I just don’t see them developing the capability to do it.

I do think it might be worth exploring whether the universities could do it, just like the colleges in the States. Working in the tertiary sector, it’s fair to say the universities have never met a dollar they didn’t like. The question might be around development in country areas. But I’d bet the regional campuses would still love a high performance centre attached to them.

The GCS is the AFL.

 

[katmanblue]

No block out, just continue to raise the DVI for higher placed teams only.
Eventually we'll reach a correct level where the lower placed teams can crawl their way up the ladder faster.

Just remove the discount of you finish top 4.

 

[katmanblue]

This.... I get the arguments that they paid full price, but access to so many guns still troubles me in an equalisation system...I'd think about restricting northern academies to matching one player per round

Yeah, should be paying overs for every subsequent player. -10% 1st player, no discount 2nd player, 10% for 3rd player and +20% for 4th player etc.

 

[katmanblue]

They had to pay a lot to get their players this year though.

Completely different to 2023.

They still got them. Need to make them have to make hard decisions for #3 and #4;

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yeah, should be paying overs for every subsequent player. -10% 1st player, no discount 2nd player, 10% for 3rd player and +20% for 4th player etc.

The whole discount thing is really a non-factor. It doesn't change much in terms of outcomes. Either have a discount or don't but no need to over complicate it. Although it's worth noting that it would have been factored in when allocating the new DVI.

 

[Stamos]

They still got them. Need to make them have to make hard decisions for #3 and #4;

That was West Coast's fault.
Suns came into this year very prepared. But also, that was only possible due to the previous system, where the DVI was so far out of whack.
If the 2025 rules had been in place for the last decade, they wouldn't have been able to get everything they got this year.

They're also down a F1 & 2 x F3s.

 

[katmanblue]

The game is still the no.1 thing over here, WAFL gets turnout and you lots of WCE and Freo fans.

Makes you wonder if the development pathways need to be worked on? My kids are too young, and have shown no interest in footy so I have no idea about the junior system

I wonder if it's just that the sun's academy is more centralised so that the best players end up there.

Whereas with the WAFL, I presume, it's more spread out. So the best aren't always competing with the best.

 

[bmaurizio]

I too would take Tylah Williams first or Wesley Walley, just to remind Eagles we’re still about.

 

[Stamos]

I wonder if it's just that the sun's academy is more centralised so that the best players end up there.

Whereas with the WAFL, I presume, it's more spread out. So the best aren't always competing with the best.

Probably part of it.
Also, incentive is a huge factor. Suns have an incentive to run their academy well, and so it is run well, and there is a huge boon for footy in Queensland.
There's no incentive for AFL or state run programs.

 

[Sector 7G]

The whole discount thing is really a non-factor. It doesn't change much in terms of outcomes. Either have a discount or don't but no need to over complicate it. Although it's worth noting that it would have been factored in when allocating the new DVI.

Here is another idea just to complicate things - Traded in picks don't get a discount ( or are marked down 10%) so you don't have the ridiculous situation where Carlton traded out early picks for points. Geelong's first pick gets pushed out because our first rounders aren't absorbed in matching picks. While good for the Blues, * and Kangas I think it is unfair.

 

[No1Suspect]

Who said that the Academies need to be disbanded? They can easily be funded and run by the AFL.

Exactly, and as a carrot or a thanks for developing the kids, the team whos academy it is gets first dibs on the player they want, they must nominate said player before draft night and the rest of the kids go into the draft pool.

 

[Stamos]

Here is another idea just to complicate things - Traded in picks don't get a discount ( or are marked down 10%) so you don't have the ridiculous situation where Carlton traded out early picks for points. Geelong's first pick gets pushed out because our first rounders aren't absorbed in matching picks. While good for the Blues, * and Kangas I think it is unfair.

Compensation picks (and assistance picks) are a way, way bigger issue than pick trades.

Geelong, like every other team has the chance to trade to their advantage.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Here is another idea just to complicate things - Traded in picks don't get a discount ( or are marked down 10%) so you don't have the ridiculous situation where Carlton traded out early picks for points. Geelong's first pick gets pushed out because our first rounders aren't absorbed in matching picks. While good for the Blues, * and Kangas I think it is unfair.

I think you get the same result of what you're proposing but in a simpler way by just limiting bid matching to 2-3 picks. Not saying I'd do that, but it'd be better what you've proposed.

 

[Sector 7G]

I wonder if it's just that the sun's academy is more centralised so that the best players end up there.

Whereas with the WAFL, I presume, it's more spread out. So the best aren't always competing with the best.

2/3s of WAs population live in Perth , more than the population of SA. I think it is just neglected and needs more funding.

 

[Soapy V]

Chris Cavanagh saying he doesn’t expect a bid for Ison to come before our pick 28 and we’ve been linked with Ludowyke and Philipou.

Don't know him but I like him already