Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

Under your option 1, it kind of doesnt matter whcih club bids for dean before our pick 9, your pick 13 will come in one position - is that correct?

Unless we trade both picks out for points, then West Coast’s pick would move back 1

 

[ThePuma #9]

Under your option 1, it kind of doesnt matter whcih club bids for dean before our pick 9, your pick 13 will come in one position - is that correct?

That's correct, the best we can hope for is pick 15 if Blues need to use both their picks but the way we'd look at it is the 12th best kid available in the open pool.

It would also stay this way if you were able to pick Dean live with your first pick or just before it (Pick 11 or 12) but that's highly unlikely to happen.

Harry Dean has continued to rise up the charts and as of today hes been ranked

Pick 6 (Zero Hanger 06/10)
Pick 7 (Rookie me Central 30/09)
Pick 8 (Twomey 24/10)
Pick 11 (ESPN 08/10)

Someone is going to bid early on him, how early is the million dollar question which is why it makes sense for Eagles and Carlton to scratch each others backs if we can. We move up a few spots, you bank some more points/extra pick and we make the northern clubs cough up all their picks early which gives us both better value on our later picks.

 

[Bletch]

That's correct, the best we can hope for is pick 15 if Blues need to use both their picks but the way we'd look at it is the 12th best kid available in the open pool.

It would also stay this way if you were able to pick Dean live with your first pick or just before it (Pick 11 or 12) but that's highly unlikely to happen.

Harry Dean has continued to rise up the charts and as of today hes been ranked

Pick 6 (Zero Hanger 06/10)
Pick 7 (Rookie me Central 30/09)
Pick 8 (Twomey 24/10)
Pick 11 (ESPN 08/10)

Someone is going to bid early on him, how early is the million dollar question which is why it makes sense for Eagles and Carlton to scratch each others backs if we can. We move up a few spots, you bank some more points/extra pick and we make the northern clubs cough up all their picks early which gives us both better value on our later picks.

We have a bit more clarity now about what we'll do at the draft. We may in fact just take the two picks (Dean and Ison), though more probably 3, especially if we can arrange for that third pick to come somewhere in the first round. Unlikely to be any more than that.

There's a number of potential strategies we could take:
(1) try to get ahead of a Dean bid, then match Dean & Ison with later picks - risk: we end up in deficit, and we really don't want to do that
(2) trade out 9, 11 or both for a package that will give enough points and a decent extra pick
(3) keep them both, match when the bid comes in, and hope there's enough points left over to give us a decent 3rd pick
(4) just take the 2 picks, and trade leftovers for a future pick

Based on that, I'm sure we'll be in discussion with your mob, and probably Richmond and Essendon, to work out the best possible deal.

 

[Benaly28]

Dean
Ison
Lindsay
Doveston

Any 3 of those would be ideal.

 

[ThePuma #9]

We have a bit more clarity now about what we'll do at the draft. We may in fact just take the two picks (Dean and Ison), though more probably 3, especially if we can arrange for that third pick to come somewhere in the first round. Unlikely to be any more than that.

There's a number of potential strategies we could take:
(1) try to get ahead of a Dean bid, then match Dean & Ison with later picks - risk: we end up in deficit, and we really don't want to do that
(2) trade out 9, 11 or both for a package that will give enough points and a decent extra pick
(3) keep them both, match when the bid comes in, and hope there's enough points left over to give us a decent 3rd pick
(4) just take the 2 picks, and trade leftovers for a future pick

Based on that, I'm sure we'll be in discussion with your mob, and probably Richmond and Essendon, to work out the best possible deal.

Plenty of time before the draft and no doubt there will be many more pick swaps flying around but as it stands now i think Eagles are your best shot.

Richmond only have picks 3,4 & 38. They need 38 for their Father and Son Louis Kellaway. They may pick up extra capitol if they split 3 or 4 but i doubt they split one of those picks and then move back by splitting again with you so Tigers are unlikely.

Essendon have picks 5, 6, 21, 27 & 30. You might be able to do a swap with them to move up but even if they gave you 5 & 21 for 9 & 11 you'd only make 50 odd points and it leaves them in a bit of trouble to match bids on Adam Sweid & Hussein El Achar who are both tipped to go top 30 so i doubt they will want to go into a defecit on these boys unless they plan to try and split 9 & 11 again and even then i'm not sure this adds up for them and will almost give you a deficit on next years draft as well.

Demons have picks 7, 8, & 37. I'm not sure it's even worth trying to move up here because you're not making much ground but even then it's the Demons who would want something to slide back and not the other way around. They'll also need that pick 37 for Kalani White.

North is a club who is looking to move up in the draft and they currently have picks 25, 26, 46 & 57 but those picks only add up to 1285 points and pick 11 by itself is worth 1205. You'd make 80 points but again it's hardly moving the needle.

Crows have 16, 48 & 55 (1026 points)
Pies have 39 & 55 (407 points)
Dockers have 20 & 47 (875 points)
Geelong have 19 & 40 (1034 points)
GWS have 12 & 35 (1478 points) This could be an option for 9 to make 123 points.
Hawks have 10 & 22 (1962 points) No way you're giving 9 & 11 for this and vice versa.
Port only have pick 49 so forget about them.
Saints only pick 50 so ditto there.
Swans have 31, 32 & 42 (1036 points) but will most likely need all of these to match Max King from their academy
Dogs have 14 & 33 (1406 points) Hardly worth the extra 51 points.

Now i'm not taking into account multiple clubs getting involved in pick swaps, future picks and club flipping picks more than once here but as you can see as it stands at the moment West Coast look like a pretty good dance partner.


Time will tell.

 

[Revenant1995]

Hey 'ThePuma #9', love the way you've come onto our board, and the way you have posted. Respect for you.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Hey 'ThePuma #9', love the way you've come onto our board, and the way you have posted. Respect for you.

Thanks for the kind words. I’ve felt pretty welcome so far. If this was some other clubs boards I’d been tarred and feathered by now with some idiot standing behind me with a bell screaming Shame, shame, shame.

We’re all just trying to get the best for our club and keep the filth like Pies, Bombers, Hawks, Cats and Dockers down.

It’s a team effort really.

 

[Big Delut]

Thanks for the kind words. I’ve felt pretty welcome so far. If this was some other clubs boards I’d been tarred and feathered by now with some idiot standing behind me with a bell screaming Shame, shame, shame.

We’re all just trying to get the best for our club and keep the filth like Pies, Bombers, Hawks, Cats and Dockers down.

It’s a team effort really.

Given how much Freo seem to hate us, is this a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"?

 

[GT619]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

Farrow is winning me over big time don't sleep on him

 

[GT619]

Cal does have intel but his form guide is how he rates the players, not his prediction of where they go. Phantom draft will be his prediction.

Riley gets good Intel from us too and says it when available

 

[circusdevil]

That's correct, the best we can hope for is pick 15 if Blues need to use both their picks but the way we'd look at it is the 12th best kid available in the open pool.

It would also stay this way if you were able to pick Dean live with your first pick or just before it (Pick 11 or 12) but that's highly unlikely to happen.

Harry Dean has continued to rise up the charts and as of today hes been ranked

Pick 6 (Zero Hanger 06/10)
Pick 7 (Rookie me Central 30/09)
Pick 8 (Twomey 24/10)
Pick 11 (ESPN 08/10)

Someone is going to bid early on him, how early is the million dollar question which is why it makes sense for Eagles and Carlton to scratch each others backs if we can. We move up a few spots, you bank some more points/extra pick and we make the northern clubs cough up all their picks early which gives us both better value on our later picks.

I reckon the AFL have already scratched your back enough with the free pick for Starcevich and the gifting you pick 2. If you bid on Dean that early i'd let you take him at 2 and good luck keeping him for longer than a year. We should just grab Farrow with one of our picks (he is who you're rumoured to want with 13 anyways).

 

[GT619]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

draft guide you mean

 

[ThePuma #9]

Given how much Freo seem to hate us, is this a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"?

 

[ThePuma #9]

I reckon the AFL have already scratched your back enough with the free pick for Starcevich and the gifting you pick 2. If you bid on Dean that early i'd let you take him at 2 and good luck keeping him for longer than a year. We should just grab Farrow with one of our picks (he is who you're rumoured to want with 13 anyways).

We won’t bid on Dean at 2, i can almost guarantee you that. Gold Coast should be nervous though.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

We won’t bid on Dean at 2, i can almost guarantee you that. Gold Coast should be nervous though.

Much respect Puma.

I've enjoyed reading your posts and getting another view from an opposition supporter

 

[GoBlues!]

Given how much Freo seem to hate us, is this a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"?

I’ve always liked this line from the Godfather, not sure how it applies to the trade period but it sounds good…

 

[GoBlues!]

We won’t bid on Dean at 2, i can almost guarantee you that. Gold Coast should be nervous though.

Agree. I tend to think WCE and Richmond would both want Suns and Lions to pay full price for their academy kids before bidding on Dean.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Harry Dean, Lachy Dovaston and Jack Ison is what I’m hoping for come draft night.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Plenty of time before the draft and no doubt there will be many more pick swaps flying around but as it stands now i think Eagles are your best shot.

Richmond only have picks 3,4 & 38. They need 38 for their Father and Son Louis Kellaway. They may pick up extra capitol if they split 3 or 4 but i doubt they split one of those picks and then move back by splitting again with you so Tigers are unlikely.

Essendon have picks 5, 6, 21, 27 & 30. You might be able to do a swap with them to move up but even if they gave you 5 & 21 for 9 & 11 you'd only make 50 odd points and it leaves them in a bit of trouble to match bids on Adam Sweid & Hussein El Achar who are both tipped to go top 30 so i doubt they will want to go into a defecit on these boys unless they plan to try and split 9 & 11 again and even then i'm not sure this adds up for them and will almost give you a deficit on next years draft as well.

Demons have picks 7, 8, & 37. I'm not sure it's even worth trying to move up here because you're not making much ground but even then it's the Demons who would want something to slide back and not the other way around. They'll also need that pick 37 for Kalani White.

North is a club who is looking to move up in the draft and they currently have picks 25, 26, 46 & 57 but those picks only add up to 1285 points and pick 11 by itself is worth 1205. You'd make 80 points but again it's hardly moving the needle.

Crows have 16, 48 & 55 (1026 points)
Pies have 39 & 55 (407 points)
Dockers have 20 & 47 (875 points)
Geelong have 19 & 40 (1034 points)
GWS have 12 & 35 (1478 points) This could be an option for 9 to make 123 points.
Hawks have 10 & 22 (1962 points) No way you're giving 9 & 11 for this and vice versa.
Port only have pick 49 so forget about them.
Saints only pick 50 so ditto there.
Swans have 31, 32 & 42 (1036 points) but will most likely need all of these to match Max King from their academy
Dogs have 14 & 33 (1406 points) Hardly worth the extra 51 points.

Now i'm not taking into account multiple clubs getting involved in pick swaps, future picks and club flipping picks more than once here but as you can see as it stands at the moment West Coast look like a pretty good dance partner.


Time will tell.

I think plan A for Carlton is a trade with the bombres.

Pick 6 is pretty much guaranteed to be ahead of the Dean bid (in my opinion). Getting a top ten player from this draft PLUS Dean is most likely our main goal.

Ess hold the key to this and it gets down to whether they want 3 picks in the top 11 or 2 picks in the top 6.

Point matching for other players can be sorted with various future pick swaps, etc.

Plan B would be to move one of our first round picks out to next year to strengthen the hand for the next trade period.

(Just using pre-academy-bid numbers for simplicity)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Harry Dean, Lachy Dovaston and Jack Ison is what I’m hoping for come draft night.

Maybe I'm missing something but I find Dovaston a bit underwhelming. Lacks a bit of straight line pace and his kicking for goal isn't high enough level. Could be wrong - only watching highlights is hard to get a proper read.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Maybe I'm missing something but I find Dovaston a bit underwhelming. Lacks a bit of straight line pace and his kicking for goal isn't high enough level. Could be wrong - only watching highlights is hard to get a proper read.

He kicked over 50 goals this season.

 

[ThePuma #9]

I think plan A for Carlton is a trade with the bombres.

Pick 6 is pretty much guaranteed to be ahead of the Dean bid (in my opinion). Getting a top ten player from this draft PLUS Dean is most likely our main goal.

Ess hold the key to this and it gets down to whether they want 3 picks in the top 11 or 2 picks in the top 6.

Point matching for other players can be sorted with various future pick swaps, etc.

Plan B would be to move one of our first round picks out to next year to strengthen the hand for the next trade period.

(Just using pre-academy-bid numbers for simplicity)

It’s entirely possibly but would Essendon want to go into a deficit next year in a stronger draft? They have two top picks this year and two academy boys to bring in.

They might consider the 4 picks in a shallow draft enough. They have a hard on for Duursma and to a lesser extent CDT and would love to move up but we’re not likely giving up Willem and they most likely won’t pay the premium for pick 2 as a lot of players are pretty even after Duursma and the academy boys.

Either way it’s going to be a fun draft to watch with a few surprises still in store.

It’s a unique one in so many ways.

3 top 5 academy boys

4 top 10 matches bids

4 teams with two top ten picks each and 5 teams with two picks inside the top 11.

Pure madness.

 

[ThePuma #9]

He kicked over 50 goals this season.

He is not what we really need but from a talent and skills point of view he is seriously being undervalued.

Should be 5 spots higher in all the rankings at a minimum.

Could be this years Murphy Reid. (Bargain buy)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

It’s entirely possibly but would Essendon want to go into a deficit next year in a stronger draft? They have two top picks this year and two academy boys to bring in.

They might consider the 4 picks in a shallow draft enough. They have a hard on for Duursma and to a lesser extent CDT and would love to move up but we’re not likely giving up Willem and they most likely won’t pay the premium for pick 2 as a lot of players are pretty even after Duursma and the academy boys.

Either way it’s going to be a fun draft to watch with a few surprises still in store.

It’s a unique one in so many ways.

3 top 5 academy boys

4 top 10 matches bids

4 teams with two top ten picks each and 5 teams with two picks inside the top 11.

Pure madness.

Yeah that's the question. It gets down to what Ess want to do more than Carlton at this stage.
Clubs are pretty good at finding ways to get the points they need for later selections so anything is possible.

For what it's worth - I think Duursma is going to be a bust. Maybe I'm put off by his brothers which obviously isn't fair but for whatever reason the bros just can't translate junior talent into AFL level and he looks too similar.

If the bombres are keen I'd be lining up a very expensive trade for them to take pick #1. Get them to give up their 2026 first rounder plus the 2 this year.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

He is not what we really need but from a talent and skills point of view he is seriously being undervalued.

Should be 5 spots higher in all the rankings at a minimum.

Could be this years Murphy Reid. (Bargain buy)

I'd be pretty happy with Dean + Dovaston + Ison...

Who do you guys like with the pick 11 range so much that you're wanting to move up two spots? Farrow?