Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[SurreyBlue]

Deans grown another cm according to the rankings, with any luck he could get to 195 or 196

IMO, easily 195.
The kid now looks KP size.

 

[Big Delut]

IMO, easily 195.
The kid now looks KP size.

He measured at 194 at the combine earlier this month.

 

[SurreyBlue]

He measured at 194 at the combine earlier this month.

Yeah but my eye is more accurate.

 

[Tazblue]

Why would we want to do a deal with a team actively threatening to butt **** us?

If Eagles bid at 2 they can take him, we take 2 kids at 9 & 11 and get Dean in 3 years.
Or try and trade 11 for Norths F1

 

[Blue and Silver]

I don't want to re-litigate the KP height debates, but if you are good enough, a cm or two doesn't matter.

Dean's game is based on competitiveness, reading of the play and doing his body work early.

 

[agro]

I don't want to re-litigate the KP height debates, but if you are good enough, a cm or two doesn't matter.

Dean's game is based on competitiveness, reading of the play and doing his body work early.

He’ll be mixing it with Sam Darcy for the next 10 years, every centimetre will help.

 

[Tazblue]

Plenty of time before the draft and no doubt there will be many more pick swaps flying around but as it stands now i think Eagles are your best shot.

Richmond only have picks 3,4 & 38. They need 38 for their Father and Son Louis Kellaway. They may pick up extra capitol if they split 3 or 4 but i doubt they split one of those picks and then move back by splitting again with you so Tigers are unlikely.

Essendon have picks 5, 6, 21, 27 & 30. You might be able to do a swap with them to move up but even if they gave you 5 & 21 for 9 & 11 you'd only make 50 odd points and it leaves them in a bit of trouble to match bids on Adam Sweid & Hussein El Achar who are both tipped to go top 30 so i doubt they will want to go into a defecit on these boys unless they plan to try and split 9 & 11 again and even then i'm not sure this adds up for them and will almost give you a deficit on next years draft as well.

Demons have picks 7, 8, & 37. I'm not sure it's even worth trying to move up here because you're not making much ground but even then it's the Demons who would want something to slide back and not the other way around. They'll also need that pick 37 for Kalani White.

North is a club who is looking to move up in the draft and they currently have picks 25, 26, 46 & 57 but those picks only add up to 1285 points and pick 11 by itself is worth 1205. You'd make 80 points but again it's hardly moving the needle.

Crows have 16, 48 & 55 (1026 points)
Pies have 39 & 55 (407 points)
Dockers have 20 & 47 (875 points)
Geelong have 19 & 40 (1034 points)
GWS have 12 & 35 (1478 points) This could be an option for 9 to make 123 points.
Hawks have 10 & 22 (1962 points) No way you're giving 9 & 11 for this and vice versa.
Port only have pick 49 so forget about them.
Saints only pick 50 so ditto there.
Swans have 31, 32 & 42 (1036 points) but will most likely need all of these to match Max King from their academy
Dogs have 14 & 33 (1406 points) Hardly worth the extra 51 points.

Now i'm not taking into account multiple clubs getting involved in pick swaps, future picks and club flipping picks more than once here but as you can see as it stands at the moment West Coast look like a pretty good dance partner.


Time will tell.

I would Trade #9 for Norths F1 + a 2nd Rd this year

 

[sweethoney]

He’ll be mixing it with Sam Darcy for the next 10 years, every centimetre will help.

Not really. Your going to need inspector gadget arms to compete with Darcy

 

[Zlatan]

Not really. Your going to need inspector gadget arms to compete with Darcy

Only way to mitigate Darcy is have enough midfield pressure that the kicks aren’t to his advantage and another defender coming in over the top. The guy is gonna be a problem for a long time

 

[Blue and Silver]

Only way to mitigate Darcy is have enough midfield pressure that the kicks aren’t to his advantage and another defender coming in over the top. The guy is gonna be a problem for a long time

If you do your body work early and keep him out of position you can mitigate a lot of the advantage.

Easier said than done of course

 

[JK61]

I would Trade #9 for Norths F1 + a 2nd Rd this year

I think North’s F1 is worth more than our pick 9.

 

[Shambolic]

I don't want to re-litigate the KP height debates, but if you are good enough, a cm or two doesn't matter.

Dean's game is based on competitiveness, reading of the play and doing his body work early.

I was 3 inches taller than a younger brother of an AFL player who 'had it' and could read the play much better. Agree it's about reading of the play and having 'it'.

Paul kicked my arse each time and I was happy for him.

Im more successful overall an dhe never played an afl game

 

[bulldogs201616]

Craft of the draft had Essendon bidding on Dean at pick 8. But then had Blues second first round pick sliding all the way out to late in the first round. Can someone tell me exactly what pick Carlton would get if a bid came at pick 8 thanks

 

[Bletch]

Craft of the draft had Essendon bidding on Dean at pick 8. But then had Blues second first round pick sliding all the way out to late in the first round. Can someone tell me exactly what pick Carlton would get if a bid came at pick 8 thanks

Depends on how many academy bids have gone before. See:

Official Club Stuff - Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II

So we only take the two this year then? We'll be taking Dean and Ison and possibly a pick ahead of them if we can trade up without compromising our points to match. Next year's draft will be a lot stronger than this one. A lot stronger.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[circusdevil]

The free pick for Starcevich wasn't a present to WCE, but one designed for Brisbane.

NFI why they needed it to be manufactured for them.

It was the present that allowed them to get Starcevich for nothing and not dilute their pick 2 compo - thus 'a free pick for Starcevich'. Whilst it helped Brisbane it was also a massive leg up for WCE

 

[Blue and Silver]

Craft of the draft had Essendon bidding on Dean at pick 8. But then had Blues second first round pick sliding all the way out to late in the first round. Can someone tell me exactly what pick Carlton would get if a bid came at pick 8 thanks

I watched their video, they did the pick math wrong, assumed pushed Carlton's picks back to 13 and 15 instead of 12 and 14.

It would push 14 to pick 18.

 

[ThePuma #9]

I would Trade #9 for Norths F1 + a 2nd Rd this year

I think you find there is zero chance of getting Norths future first.

They traded pick 3 for Whitlock and pick 25 this year. Safe to say if Rawlings did something as stupid as this again then their 4 supporters will burn Arden street to the ground.

 

[GT619]

Harry Dean, Lachy Dovaston and Jack Ison is what I’m hoping for come draft night.

then tell baldy to get it done

 

[ThePuma #9]

If Eagles bid at 2 they can take him, we take 2 kids at 9 & 11 and get Dean in 3 years.
Or try and trade 11 for Norths F1

Never going to happen (Bid at 2) and never going to happen. (You don’t match)

If Eagles match a bid it will be at pick 5 would be guess and even then it will be just to burn some picks so we move up in the order.

I suspect it’s all just a bluff from us though. Hoping we can work out a trade.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Why would we do that desk for 104 points?

If we are trading back we would want more points than 104.

The current picks 9 for 13 and 30, are likely to become 12 for 16 and 25. That seems more palatable

I explained multiple reasons but in a gist it goes like this.

If we were to come to an agreement West Coast proceed to bid on all the northern players thus pushing our second pick (2) out to 5. This means even if we don’t bid on Dean the earliest bid you could receive for Dean would be from the Tigers at 6.

It would also burn a lot of picks in the process moving both clubs picks in the second round up further.

So it’s not just the 100 points you make, it’s the improved picks we both gain from us pissing GC and the Lions off and protecting you from potentially the Tigers placing a bid earlier than 6 on Dean.

A lot of variables to take into account but as others have mentioned your club will be looking at all alternatives and there will no doubt be plenty that don’t include West Coast.

 

[ThePuma #9]

If anyone gets Sharp outside of the top 5, it is daylight robbery.

He has been a star of the championships for two seasons, and by far and away the best inside mid in the group. The likes of Annable are comparable, and Robey is the sexy new kid on the block. Casual watchers, and some not so casual are becoming enamoured with the burst types, the spectacular. Every club needs a prime extractor, and that is just what Sharp is. He is capable on the soread and around the ground, but he is “the man”.

Every club needs one. He is next level. There are only a handful of clubs who could say they are prepared for the next generation in that regard.

West Coast have Reid, but he is a utility more than a workhorse. More the burst type, so the co exist well IMO.
Norf have LDU and more outside types and there is a place.
* absolutely would be crazy to pass on him.
Melbourne would surely love him as the inside man. Langford is going to be great, but is as much utility mid/forward as he is prime extractor.
Richmond have Lalor, who is more forward, yet unproven Smillie and the aging insider in Hopper and Taranto

Sharp is exactly the type of player West Coast need.

Born leader, see ball, get ball inside mid who facilitates to outside run with a quick handball. Also tackles well and has added other facets to his game this year playing a little outside and forward which they said he couldn’t do.

For a team that can’t get its hands on the pill and gets beat in clearances every week it’s a no brainer but that’s the problem right there isn’t it? The simplest solution is always the hardest one to make for most list managers.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Bulldust on that one.... Watts, Scully, McCartin, Patton, McGrath, JUH, JHF, Swallow.... there have been so many #1 picks that have not worked for their clubs.

There are zero guarantees just because they've gone pick 1.

Duursma I rate in the McGrath category. Won't be a complete flop but as far as #1 picks go doesn't live up to expectations.

Send him to ess!!!

Well to be fair I said you’d be going back to Boyd to find the last number 1 pick that was a dud, never said he was the only one as I did mention Patton and McCartin as well but gave them a pass due to being derailed via injury.

JHF isn’t a dud, he has heaps of talent. What he is though is a downright undisciplined dickhead and as you know as well with Elijah a player can have all the talent in the world but if they won’t apply themselves and take their opportunity seriously there’s nothing you can do about it.

McGrath is an interesting one, McCluggage was rated one all year and Essendon got a massive hard on for McGrath hoping they could turn the half back flanker into a midfielder. Whoops on that one.

You could be correct on Duursma, like I said he could be anything, including Cale Morton MkII but he’s the clear number 1 pick in everyone’s eyes in a year where the rest of the top 5 is untouchable. Just have to back ourselves in we’ll make it work.

As for JHF just as Harley says “Mummas boy”

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Never going to happen (Bid at 2) and never going to happen. (You don’t match)

If Eagles match a bid it will be at pick 5 would be guess and even then it will be just to burn some picks so we move up in the order.

I suspect it’s all just a bluff from us though. Hoping we can work out a trade.

You'll only really move up 1 spot in the draft because our #9 is most likely going to be burnt on a Dean bid anyway...

I really doubt you'd be bidding on 3 players in a row too...

Most likely it'll be Uwland at #2. Then you'll either take CDT or Robey with #3 I reckon.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Well to be fair I said you’d be going back to Boyd to find the last number 1 pick that was a dud, never said he was the only one as I did mention Patton and McCartin as well but gave them a pass due to being derailed via injury.

JHF isn’t a dud, he has heaps of talent. What he is though is a downright undisciplined dickhead and as you know as well with Elijah a player can have all the talent in the world but if they won’t apply themselves and take their opportunity seriously there’s nothing you can do about it.

McGrath is an interesting one, McCluggage was rated one all year and Essendon got a massive hard on for McGrath hoping they could turn the half back flanker into a midfielder. Whoops on that one.

You could be correct on Duursma, like I said he could be anything, including Cale Morton MkII but he’s the clear number 1 pick in everyone’s eyes in a year where the rest of the top 5 is untouchable. Just have to back ourselves in we’ll make it work.

As for JHF just as Harley says “Mummas boy”

The McGrath pick looks worse and worse as the years go by.

But the #1 pick rarely ends up being the best player from that draft. Statistically you'd be miles better off taking 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks. Especially in a year like this where there's no stand out like Harley.

Not sure why clubs hold onto it like its some gold plated guarantee of getting the best player in the draft. It's just not.

Didn't North trade it for Cadman vs Sheezel + Wardlaw?

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I think you find there is zero chance of getting Norths future first.

They traded pick 3 for Whitlock and pick 25 this year. Safe to say if Rawlings did something as stupid as this again then their 4 supporters will burn Arden street to the ground.

It would likely shatter into stardust fragments due to a massive blast of self combustion, never go FULL NORTH multiple first round swap outs!!!!