Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ThePuma #9]

You'll only really move up 1 spot in the draft because our #9 is most likely going to be burnt on a Dean bid anyway...

I really doubt you'd be bidding on 3 players in a row too...

Most likely it'll be Uwland at #2. Then you'll either take CDT or Robey with #3 I reckon.

I think this is what will happen too.

If I’m being honest I think we are faking interest in the hopes you won’t trade the picks elsewhere as that’s really our worst case scenario. If you hold them then chances are we move up two spots in the pecking order for players available but if you trade both of them out to other clubs then we are essentially not going to be picking until the 13th best player available that’s not academy or father and son connected.

Whether it works I have zero clue.

 

[ThePuma #9]

The McGrath pick looks worse and worse as the years go by.

But the #1 pick rarely ends up being the best player from that draft. Statistically you'd be miles better off taking 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks. Especially in a year like this where there's no stand out like Harley.

Not sure why clubs hold onto it like its some gold plated guarantee of getting the best player in the draft. It's just not.

Didn't North trade it for Cadman vs Sheezel + Wardlaw?

Yeah statistically very few number #1 picks have won a premiership.

Recently Cam Rayner has but before that only Luke Hodge, Tom Boyd and Drew Banfield have won a premiership in the AFL era. So not only are they not often the best player but it doesn’t guarantee much success either.

We’ve split two high end picks in the last 3 years with 2 for 9 and 14 (Wardlaw for Ginbey & Hewett) in the 2022 draft and again last year with you guys with 3 for 12 & 14 (Jagga for Baker and Bo Allen)

Unless someone is prepared to pay overs we really do need to take some top end talent at least every now and then.

The North trade was very complicated but in a nutshell it was GWS coughing up 3 and 9 for 1, North coughing up JHF for 14 and a future first and the Eagles trading 2 for 9 & 14.

P.S i can’t wait to see Jagga next year in the navy blue. This kid is special, has had the ball on a string at every level he’s played, the AFL will be no exception.

 

[ThePuma #9]

It would likely shatter into stardust fragments due to a massive blast of self combustion, never go FULL NORTH multiple first round swap outs!!!!

The worst bit is I think they missed the best KPP in the draft which we lucked out in getting. Time will tell and it’s only early days but Jobe Shanahan is looking like a star in the making.

West Coast sure know how to draft talks, we just suck at picking midfielders.

Our speciality is selecting half back flankers with “midfield” potential who end up playing funnily enough…….half back.

 

[sweethoney]

The McGrath pick looks worse and worse as the years go by.

But the #1 pick rarely ends up being the best player from that draft. Statistically you'd be miles better off taking 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks. Especially in a year like this where there's no stand out like Harley.

Not sure why clubs hold onto it like its some gold plated guarantee of getting the best player in the draft. It's just not.

Didn't North trade it for Cadman vs Sheezel + Wardlaw?

Only because gws wanted Cadman. GWS gave up 3 and 12 on their part in the 4 way trade. North gave up pick 1 and Jhf

 

[sweethoney]

Yeah statistically very few number #1 picks have won a premiership.

Recently Cam Rayner has but before that only Luke Hodge, Tom Boyd and Drew Banfield have won a premiership in the AFL era. So not only are they not often the best player but it doesn’t guarantee much success either.

We’ve split two high end picks in the last 3 years with 2 for 9 and 14 (Wardlaw for Ginbey & Hewett) in the 2022 draft and again last year with you guys with 3 for 12 & 14 (Jagga for Baker and Bo Allen)

Unless someone is prepared to pay overs we really do need to take some top end talent at least every now and then.

The North trade was very complicated but in a nutshell it was GWS coughing up 3 and 9 for 1, North coughing up JHF for 14 and a future first and the Eagles trading 2 for 9 & 14.

Adam Cooney and Matt Rowell the only pick 1’s to win a Brownlow too

 

[ThePuma #9]

Adam Cooney and Matt Rowell the only pick 1’s to win a Brownlow too

Very good point.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Hadn't played any real representative footy aside from a few under 18s games for Norwood. He's a country lad so was just playing footy back home. Had limited experience with the elite pathways - it's hard to get to Adelaide from Eyre.

Summary from someone who floats around at Glenelg was he superbly talented but floated in and out of games, mostly due due to not having a tank at all. Now he's settled in Adelaide and can focus more on his footy - he's fit and firing.

Ceiling is high - aside from his age, he's effectively a junior as he's only just now had the opportunity to access the elite support offered.

Apparently only 170cm which perhaps puts a few off

 

[Coona Blues]

The worst bit is I think they missed the best KPP in the draft which we lucked out in getting. Time will tell and it’s only early days but Jobe Shanahan is looking like a star in the making.

West Coast sure know how to draft talks, we just suck at picking midfielders.

Our speciality is selecting half back flankers with “midfield” potential who end up playing funnily enough…….half back.

Time will show that Harry O’Farrell was the best KPP in that draft . Equally, I concur that Shanahan will be the second best. Loved him at the draft and there are historic posts to prove it.

Strangely I see plenty of good pieces in place for West Coast. Losing Chesser will hurt you. You have some decent cheap key backs (Edwards, Brock and Young) in place, with some excellent third talls. The midfield has been slow burn (Sharp would be enormous if they are smart enough to draft him). Outside mids (run and distribution) and a new small/medium forward structure are going to become an issue. You do have some possibilities through NGA, but hard to consider them bankable. (Sorry for Owies) there are a couple of promising ones, but no “stars”. Shanahan, Reid and a fit Waterman are an excellent tall forward group, and you have a couple more talls “still coming”.

Hope they don’t put their eggs all in the Clay Hall and Hewett basket, both are good, but Sharp is next level.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Having reviewed the depth situation I think it's clear that our third draftee (outside of Dean and Ison) should, if possible be a key forward prospect.

Players 23 and under and their positions:

General Forward

Motlop
Young
Moir
Monahan

Key Forward

HOK

Mid

Lord
Smith
B. Camporeale

Wing

Chesser
L. Camporeale

Gen Defender

Carroll
Cowan
Wilson
Charleson
Duffy

Key Defender

HOF

Ruck

Nil or HOK depending on how you see it

 

[Big Delut]

Apparently only 170cm which perhaps puts a few off

Listed 180 everywhere I've seen other than the Twomey rankings. Possibly a misprint?

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

The worst bit is I think they missed the best KPP in the draft which we lucked out in getting. Time will tell and it’s only early days but Jobe Shanahan is looking like a star in the making.

West Coast sure know how to draft talks, we just suck at picking midfielders.

Our speciality is selecting half back flankers with “midfield” potential who end up playing funnily enough…….half back.

We were in the same boat, particularly when SOS was our list manager, you couldn’t have a worse strike rate at picking midfielders of forwards with the picks he had to work with…

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Listed 180 everywhere I've seen other than the Twomey rankings. Possibly a misprint?

Apparently eDPS has the inside info

 

[katmanblue]

Yeah but my eye is more accurate.

Give him 2 inch lifts and he play as a 200cm KDP.

 

[Big Delut]

Apparently eDPS has the inside info

Not saying that info is wrong but it would be surprising. He looks noticeably taller than his Glenelg teammate Darcy Bailey who is listed as 176cm.

 

[ctwenty1]

I think you find there is zero chance of getting Norths future first.

They traded pick 3 for Whitlock and pick 25 this year. Safe to say if Rawlings did something as stupid as this again then their 4 supporters will burn Arden street to the ground.

At least the police wouldn’t have to go to too many homes to find the culprits

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Will we do the "boring" thing and use 9 to match the Dean bid, pick up Dovaston with whatever our pick 11 becomes and then get Ison with remaining points would we be happy with that?

I think if no Dean bid comes by our first pick, we take Lindsay, use 11 to get Dean + Ison.

That's 'boring' as well. With what we've lost, it would be underwhelming. The two 2026 picks will both make up the Walker bid and the Sydney 2027 first will be something like pick 60 million. We need a 'trick'.

 

[BlueLocke]

Apparently only 170cm which perhaps puts a few off

No way he's only 170. Easily somewhere between 175-180+. Certainly not tall, but he's not Watson sized.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Listed as 180cm on SANFL site....passes the eye test too

 

[Coona Blues]

Having reviewed the depth situation I think it's clear that our third draftee (outside of Dean and Ison) should, if possible be a key forward prospect.

Players 23 and under and their positions:

General Forward

Motlop
Young
Moir
Monahan

Key Forward

HOK

Mid

Lord
Smith
B. Camporeale

Wing

Chesser
L. Camporeale

Gen Defender

Carroll
Cowan
Wilson
Charleson
Duffy

Key Defender

HOF

Ruck

Nil or HOK depending on how you see it

Absolutely the logical move. I have named a few options earlier.

Some chance the Wright influence may look to a small forward running option and run the gauntlet on keys for a year. With Dean coming in to join Weiters, some chance we repurpose O’Farrell as a forward when fit.

 

[sydney_gws]

I think plan A for Carlton is a trade with the bombres.

Pick 6 is pretty much guaranteed to be ahead of the Dean bid (in my opinion). Getting a top ten player from this draft PLUS Dean is most likely our main goal.

Ess hold the key to this and it gets down to whether they want 3 picks in the top 11 or 2 picks in the top 6.

Point matching for other players can be sorted with various future pick swaps, etc.

Plan B would be to move one of our first round picks out to next year to strengthen the hand for the next trade period.

(Just using pre-academy-bid numbers for simplicity)

Hello, could you see a trade with GWS being mutually beneficial?
Perhaps GWS offers 12, F1 for 9, F2.
You could then try to trade 12 for 18, F1 with Geelong as an example.

 

[Big Delut]

Hello, could you see a trade with GWS being mutually beneficial?
Perhaps GWS offers 12, F1 for 9, F2.
You could then try to trade 12 for 18, F1 with Geelong as an example.

I'm pretty sure we'd do that first deal but unfortunately we don't have an F2 anymore.

 

[Stamos]

Mini mock draft based on pure guess:

Pick 10 Harry Dean (Carl bid match w/ pick 12 & 14 get pick 15 back

If Dees bid at 10 and we match with 12, then our 14 doesn’t move.

 

[Bronze]

AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-23 (second edition) — Zero Hanger

Matched bids, live trading and PLENTY of surprises in our latest Mock Draft!

apple.news

Interesting to see what could happen with an early bid on Dean.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

That's 'boring' as well. With what we've lost, it would be underwhelming. The two 2026 picks will both make up the Walker bid and the Sydney 2027 first will be something like pick 60 million. We need a 'trick'.

We can only play the hand we've been dealt.

Would've loved to been able to flip 9 + 11 into Humphrey and then work out another way to gather points... but that was out of our hands, GC were never letting him go this off season.

I think Dean, Dovaston/Lindsay and Ison all have talent and address needs for us so it's not that bad of a result.

 

[Tazblue]

I think North’s F1 is worth more than our pick 9.

Depends how bad North want a pick this year, remember last year?