Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

I'm not placing much stock in this, but anyway

AFL Phantom Draft 2025: 27 picks, 9 bids make up a chaotic first round

It could be a massive first night of the 2025 AFL Draft, with up to 27 selections and nine(!) bids set to feature. Here's who ESPN has going in the first round.

www.espn.com.au

 

[tarczonandjane]

Competitive and combative is right.

He tackles like the other guy ate his lunch.

The old-school fans will love him

I loved his dad, Blue and Silver. To be honest, if I could choose one former player to return to their youth as a player and join our current lineup I would just about choose his dad over more talented players. He’d sort out our culture for sure.

I’m all in on young Harry.

 

[ferrisb]

Thing to remember with Dean, which the other clubs would know, is that he has benefitted from being in an AFL system

The other boys who are not tied do not get the same benefit

So Dean will be further progressed than others and therefore likley closer to his ceiling whereas those non-tied are further from their's

Its also another part of the explanation as to why bids come later for NGA and F/S

Obviously not trying rag on Dean, but as the phantom drafts start coming out we will see what clubs are thinking about prospective players as opposed to rankings rated purely on present talent

On the flipside, he has missed a lot of footy in the past three years.

He got better as the year went on, as he got back into the game. His late-season form is arguably the fairest representation of his talent.

 

[Sector 7G]

Thing to remember with Dean, which the other clubs would know, is that he has benefitted from being in an AFL system

The other boys who are not tied do not get the same benefit

So Dean will be further progressed than others and therefore likley closer to his ceiling whereas those non-tied are further from their's

Its also another part of the explanation as to why bids come later for NGA and F/S

Obviously not trying rag on Dean, but as the phantom drafts start coming out we will see what clubs are thinking about prospective players as opposed to rankings rated purely on present talent

Not so sure that is true. Take a kid like Grlj. Has worked privately with coaches like David Buttifant who drastically transformed his athletic performance. Lots of kids are doing extras outside club and school footy. Also the private schools in Melbourne have better coaching resources than the talent league so being up on the Murray would put him behind.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Thing to remember with Dean, which the other clubs would know, is that he has benefitted from being in an AFL system

The other boys who are not tied do not get the same benefit

So Dean will be further progressed than others and therefore likley closer to his ceiling whereas those non-tied are further from their's

Its also another part of the explanation as to why bids come later for NGA and F/S

Obviously not trying rag on Dean, but as the phantom drafts start coming out we will see what clubs are thinking about prospective players as opposed to rankings rated purely on present talent

I'd normally agree with that, but given how injury interrupted his last 3 years have been I would say he's underdone if anything. He made immense progress this season from beginning to end. First few games I watched of him he really didn't have the confidence in his game I was hoping for despite having the athletic profile. By end of year he was like a one man brick wall down back repelling everything that went near him.

With a November birthday he has huge upside still imo. Hoping HOF and Weiters can be our two lockdown players and Harry can have an easier time coming in as that 3rd tall interceptor. A couple of extra cms of height wouldn't do him any harm either.

 

[ctwenty1]

A few people on here doing a crap job trying to talk Dean down

I want him cheap

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

A few people on here doing a crap job trying to talk Dean down

I want him cheap

It's okay, injuries have hopefully allowed Ison to drop enough for us to get him in the 20s-30s. Though I do worry we may see an early bid with him too on draft night.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'm not placing much stock in this, but anyway

AFL Phantom Draft 2025: 27 picks, 9 bids make up a chaotic first round

It could be a massive first night of the 2025 AFL Draft, with up to 27 selections and nine(!) bids set to feature. Here's who ESPN has going in the first round.

www.espn.com.au

As I suspected, been seeing of mock drafts have the Tigers take X.Taylor and Grlj...

As for the bids, clubs with 2 picks in a row, aren't going to make the bid with the first pick... it'll be a courtesy thing imo if they want to bid on a player, they'll do it with their next pick.

 

[ferrisb]

Crazy call, but I think a bid on Dean could still hit double figures....

I am confident WCE won't bid. I don't think Rich will bid. Ess could, but they have lots of needs and might not want to piss off teams ahead of Bewick (2 years out is a long time, though). Can see Melb bidding. Don't think Hawks bid.

Definitely-ish before Dean: Duursma, Uwland, CDT, Annable
Probably before: Robey, Grlj, Patterson
Maybe before: Sharp, Shubert, Taylor

Especially if it's known that we have plans to trade up/out, teams might be a little less likely to bid. Not suggesting Harry isn't rated in the top 10, just that it's possible he slides to 10-12 (adjusted).

My guess is a bid comes from Melb, with * most likely next. Although a trade with * would take them out of the picture.

 

[Stamos]

Crazy call, but I think a bid on Dean could still hit double figures....

I am confident WCE won't bid. I don't think Rich will bid. Ess could, but they have lots of needs and might not want to piss off teams ahead of Bewick (2 years out is a long time, though). Can see Melb bidding. Don't think Hawks bid.

Definitely-ish before Dean: Duursma, Uwland, CDT, Annable
Probably before: Robey, Grlj, Patterson
Maybe before: Sharp, Shubert, Taylor

Especially if it's known that we have plans to trade up/out, teams might be a little less likely to bid. Not suggesting Harry isn't rated in the top 10, just that it's possible he slides to 10-12 (adjusted).

My guess is a bid comes from Melb, with * most likely next. Although a trade with * would take them out of the picture.

Reckon it's a Lloyd Christmas type chance that he gets past Melbourne without a bid.
That might increase slightly if we've done the Essendon trade.

 

[El Topo]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

Unfortunately for us on BF the club has stopped leaking its draft strategy ahead of time - but our two mobs have good reason to scratch each other's backs over the next couple of years

 

[ferrisb]

Reckon it's a Lloyd Christmas type chance that he gets past Melbourne without a bid.
That might increase slightly if we've done the Essendon trade.

IF the three academy players are bid before Dean, Melbourne bidding with their first pick would be pick 10. With us holding 12. Which is what I was suggesting.

My post was based on 'adjusted' picks. My best guess is pick 7-8 from Melb, which could be 9-11....

 

[Jimmae]

Hello guys, I come in peace. Just wondering if you guys have any idea what you’re gonna do with 9 and 11?

From the brief bit I have just read it seems you want to take them both to the draft and hope the dean bid comes later? Do you know if CFC are entertaining any trade deals, for points for Ison and Dean or even futures for walker? If this is the case, I assume we’d be a club you’d want to do business with. What hypotheticals would you guys entertain?

I personally think a dean bid will at the very latest come at melbourne’s picks considering they need a key back. If Tigs rate him above Taylor then that’s a real possibility, and I can also see a scenario where Essendon threaten to bid on him as a negotiation tactic for us to split our picks or trade up. In my opinion It would make the most sense to trade out 9 and 11 for futures whilst also securing enough points for Dean and Ison. Whilst yes it is a possibility that it’s all posturing and a bid comes later than expected, it’s also an even more real possibility that you miss out on ison or go into points deficit. I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well, whilst EFC make better use of their second rounders by getting an additional FRP and having enough to match a sweid bid. What do you guys think? )

Pick 5 for that trade.

 

[Stamos]

I can see something happening where we give you 2 of our second rounders and 6 (plus a handshake that we won’t bid on dean) for 9 11 and 43. I reckon this is a win win, CFC End up with 2 top 10 talents and enough points to get ison as well

A deal like this would certainly be on the cards if Essendon are really keen to move 21 up to 11 (although 11 would drift). It would have to be a live-trade, rather than a "handshake".
However, I don't think we could afford to include 43, we wouldn't have coverage for Ison. Maybe 54, which is going to come in quite a way.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I like Oudshoorn-Bennier, just think he'll be too close to Ison on draft night to match a bid and get him.

Is this a Key & Peele type stitch up?

 

[Stamos]

Pick 5 for that trade.

Why would Essendon trade their 1st pick rather than their 2nd?

 

[katmanblue]

This guy looks a likely type Jimmae, very good with ball in hand and decision maker.

Needs to draft him if only for the "We are B.O.B." references

 

[ferrisb]

Needs to draft him if only for the "We are B.O.B." references

Or the Blackadder references...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Crazy call, but I think a bid on Dean could still hit double figures....

I am confident WCE won't bid. I don't think Rich will bid. Ess could, but they have lots of needs and might not want to piss off teams ahead of Bewick (2 years out is a long time, though). Can see Melb bidding. Don't think Hawks bid.

Definitely-ish before Dean: Duursma, Uwland, CDT, Annable
Probably before: Robey, Grlj, Patterson
Maybe before: Sharp, Shubert, Taylor

Especially if it's known that we have plans to trade up/out, teams might be a little less likely to bid. Not suggesting Harry isn't rated in the top 10, just that it's possible he slides to 10-12 (adjusted).

My guess is a bid comes from Melb, with * most likely next. Although a trade with * would take them out of the picture.

Yep. Eagles only go up 1 pick in the draft, it's not 2 like people keep saying because we're losing 9 on the Dean bid anyway. Really doubt they're going to focus on their back 6 in this draft. They need a lot, but a utility like Duursma, a Jackson like player in CDT or Robey are all players they'd want ahead of Dean.

And Tigers are very keen on Grlj and X.Taylor.

They see Taylor as the Vlastuin replacement. I think if Robey is still there, they won't pass him up.

Grlj played VFL for them and compliments what they've got perfectly.

Ess could really use players like Cumming and Sharp, their key defensive stocks are pretty much covered. If either of Robey or X.Taylor are there though, I can't see them passing on them. A bid on Dean is pure games from them if it happens...

Melbourne are the ones that will make the bid. And I reckon given they have two consecutive picks, they'll do it with the latter pick imo.

 

[katmanblue]

2026F1s are obviously off the table, so that leaves our currency as 2027F3 (essentially worthless at the moment) or one of our 2027F1s. If we were willing to use one of these, it's probably involved in a wider trade, rather than just trading into this draft.

Especially if Tasmania falls down, then those 2027 1sts are more valuable

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

As I suspected, been seeing of mock drafts have the Tigers take X.Taylor and Grlj...

As for the bids, clubs with 2 picks in a row, aren't going to make the bid with the first pick... it'll be a courtesy thing imo if they want to bid on a player, they'll do it with their next pick.

Id be happy with Dean and Harley Barker if this plays out

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

A deal like this would certainly be on the cards if Essendon are really keen to move 21 up to 11 (although 11 would drift). It would have to be a live-trade, rather than a "handshake".
However, I don't think we could afford to include 43, we wouldn't have coverage for Ison. Maybe 54, which is going to come in quite a way.

6,21,27
For
9,11

 

[ferrisb]

6,21,27
For
9,11

Thoughts on what these picks (and values) this might look after accounting for bids (and picks eaten up)?

Too brain-dead and/or stupid to work out myself...

 

[GT619]

I'm not placing much stock in this, but anyway

AFL Phantom Draft 2025: 27 picks, 9 bids make up a chaotic first round

It could be a massive first night of the 2025 AFL Draft, with up to 27 selections and nine(!) bids set to feature. Here's who ESPN has going in the first round.

www.espn.com.au

whats a barker

 

[Stamos]

Thoughts on what these picks (and values) this might look after accounting for bids (and picks eaten up)?

Too brain-dead and/or stupid to work out myself...

9, 21, 25 for 12, 14