Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue__Balls]

Unfortunately for us on BF the club has stopped leaking its draft strategy ahead of time - but our two mobs have good reason to scratch each other's backs over the next couple of years

Do they?

What are the odds Carlton is so low on the ladder in 2027 that we could stiff them by bidding early on Bewick? What's the risk for Essendon if they bid on Dean...and hell, finish bottom three next year and bid on Walker?

If they're in a position to bid on Walker then they're very likely sitting below us in 2027 anyway, and we're not going to be in a position to bid on Bewick.

The danger is that what - they bid on Dean where everyone seems to rate him anyway, maybe do the same next year with Walker, then they suddenly fly up the ladder despite all the off-field tension and list issues, Carlton sink to the bottom of the ladder despite evening out our talent profile and addressing buy-in issues, then we bid on Bewick where everyone seems to rate him anyway to get back at them for bidding on Dean and Walker in their expected ranges...? Even this year, after matching Dean and needing to match Ison, we're not going to be in a position to bid on their NGAs this year either.

The most likely outcome is that outside of Dean this year, neither club is in a position to bid on the other's premium father/son, and some other unrelated-to-this-discussion club bids top 2 or 3 anyway for the same "worst" outcome for each club.

I wouldn't be expecting any handouts or favours from the Bombers. Their new Pres in particular seems to want to plant his flag on their club being ruthless and intractable and focused solely on their own success - sticking it to Carlton with an early(ish) bid strikes me as the kind of thing he'd be expecting of his list management team.

 

[ferrisb]

whats a barker

AFL Phantom Draft 2025: 27 picks, 9 bids make up a chaotic first round

It could be a massive first night of the 2025 AFL Draft, with up to 27 selections and nine(!) bids set to feature. Here's who ESPN has going in the first round.

www.espn.com.au

Barker presents as both a best available pick and one that fixes a big issue on the list. The hard-running wingman's pace, strong marking and incisive ball use makes for an enticing package off the wing. He can chop out in defence, excels with ball in hand using his dash and dare, and often gets forward to kick goals. An ACL rupture means Barker will be rehabbing for the first half of the season, which may have prevented him from landing in the top 10 this year.

Sounds like Campbell Chesser's draft profile.

 

[ctwenty1]

I cant see how we trade to a lower pick number and still maintain enough picks for dean and ison

suspect we may need to involve a future pick

thats why I wouldnt be surprised if we trade out of this year's draft somehow for fuire picks and current points, grab dean and ison and another player late (may still be before Ison but not dean)

 

[Ninja Worrier]

whats a barker

Athletic SA wingman, AIS academy, beautiful kick...did an ACL after U18 champs

 

[Stamos]

Do they?

What are the odds Carlton is so low on the ladder in 2027 that we could stiff them by bidding early on Bewick? What's the risk for Essendon if they bid on Dean...and hell, finish bottom three next year and bid on Walker?

If they're in a position to bid on Walker then they're very likely sitting below us in 2027 anyway, and we're not going to be in a position to bid on Bewick.

The danger is that what - they bid on Dean where everyone seems to rate him anyway, maybe do the same next year with Walker, then they suddenly fly up the ladder despite all the off-field tension and list issues, Carlton sink to the bottom of the ladder despite evening out our talent profile and addressing buy-in issues, then we bid on Bewick where everyone seems to rate him anyway to get back at them for bidding on Dean and Walker in their expected ranges...? Even this year, after matching Dean and needing to match Ison, we're not going to be in a position to bid on their NGAs this year either.

The most likely outcome is that outside of Dean this year, neither club is in a position to bid on the other's premium father/son, and some other unrelated-to-this-discussion club bids top 2 or 3 anyway for the same "worst" outcome for each club.

I wouldn't be expecting any handouts or favours from the Bombers. Their new Pres in particular seems to want to plant his flag on their club being ruthless and intractable and focused solely on their own success - sticking it to Carlton with an early(ish) bid strikes me as the kind of thing he'd be expecting of his list management team.

It's not just about bidding, it could be about 2026 to 2027 trading that helps both clubs.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Personally I think we'll probably do a trade on the night.

A couple of scenarios.

1. Trade up.

Package 9 & 11 for a pick before a Dean bid and a lot of points behind it.

Currently don't see a logical taker, but pick trades could change that.

2. Trade down

Trade pick 9 down for more points. Foregoes a chance at a non-tied player in the top 20 but is a more efficient use of the points, probably also get a future pick upgrade in this sort of deal

3. Trade out

Trade 9 out for a future first and a pick in the second round, enough to match Dean and Ison.

We would still get a pick towards the back of the draft if we liked a prospect and this sets us up very strongly for Cody

4. Trade in points

Trade a future pick for points in the second and third rounds so we can get Dean another first round selection and Ison.

It's possible Ison gets through to the 30's, but I doubt it and we will need some points to ensure that our first pick next year isn't affected as that could really hurt a Cody match

3, but I'm starting to think Carlton wants another shiny new toy this year.

 

[Blue__Balls]

whats a barker

A winger who will miss half of 2026 to rehab an ACL, apparently. Can't see us going that route with our injury history, plus the recruitment of Florent and Chesser as wing options, and the option to have Ison play wing as well.

 

[Stamos]

I cant see how we trade to a lower pick number and still maintain enough picks for dean and ison

suspect we may need to involve a future pick

thats why I wouldnt be surprised if we trade out of this year's draft somehow for fuire picks and current points, grab dean and ison and another player late (may still be before Ison but not dean)

Who do you think is offering the deal to get into this year's draft?

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

9, 21, 25 for 12, 14

Isnt it 9,24,30 = 2430 points for 12,14 = 2164 points?

Surplus equiv pick 39

 

[ctwenty1]

3, but I'm starting to think Carlton wants another shiny new toy this year.

Really does depend on how they rate this years versus next year. We dont have a second rounder next year so we may well want another pick fo another player, or we may need a pick for Cody matching - we still dont know the rules for next year

 

[ferrisb]

9, 21, 25 for 12, 14

21 + 25 is enough to match a bid at pick 8.

If we did that deal with *, I assume it would be baked in that * do not bid on Dean.

So then we're looking at a bid at pick 10 at the earliest (assuming this is only done as a live deal where Dean lasts past Richmond). Bid at 10 would eat up 21 and push 25 back to 45 (IF I understand this correctly).

 

[Blue__Balls]

It's not just about bidding, it could be about 2026 to 2027 trading that helps both clubs.

Mutually beneficial trades, sure - but I'd still suggest that, at least for now, Essendon are the ones with leverage given their draft position, so it's more likely the be a 60/40 split their way on the "benefit" sliding scale

Pending the confirmation of the bid matching rules, you'd think a swap of their 2026 first for one of our 2027 firsts would be a simple one to get done, with some later swaps to balance it out as needed.

 

[Stamos]

Isnt it 9,24,30 for 12,14 ?

No.
21 can only blow out 3 places if Gold Coast and Brisbane trade down all 3 of their 1st round picks, and nobody has the points for that.
And, even if that happens, 27 won't also blow out.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

21 + 25 is enough to match a bid at pick 8.

If we did that deal with *, I assume it would be baked in that * do not bid on Dean.

So then we're looking at a bid at pick 10 at the earliest (assuming this is only done as a live deal where Dean lasts past Richmond). Bid at 10 would eat up 21 and push 25 back to 45 (IF I understand this correctly).

That would leave us a couple of picks for Ison and a crack at the sixth 'best' available player...a great outcome

 

[GT619]

Athletic SA wingman, AIS academy, beautiful kick...did an ACL after U18 champs

which is why I'm keen on farrow, lindsay and oskar taylor

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Id be happy with Dean and Harley Barker if this plays out

Barker could have been a top 10 pick if not for injury. Would also be a good pick up for us.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I wouldn't be expecting any handouts or favours from the Bombers. Their new Pres in particular seems to want to plant his flag on their club being ruthless and intractable and focused solely on their own success - sticking it to Carlton with an early(ish) bid strikes me as the kind of thing he'd be expecting of his list management team.

Maybe... but acting in bad faith won't go unnoticed by other clubs too...

 

[Jimmae]

Barker presents as both a best available pick and one that fixes a big issue on the list. The hard-running wingman's pace, strong marking and incisive ball use makes for an enticing package off the wing. He can chop out in defence, excels with ball in hand using his dash and dare, and often gets forward to kick goals. An ACL rupture means Barker will be rehabbing for the first half of the season, which may have prevented him from landing in the top 10 this year.

Sounds like Campbell Chesser's draft profile.

I see less Chesser and more Acres. Cleaner kick than Acres currently, but Acres was a solid kick coming in (and most of his career), has just thrashed his feet/legs/back over the years.

I cant see how we trade to a lower pick number and still maintain enough picks for dean and ison

suspect we may need to involve a future pick

thats why I wouldnt be surprised if we trade out of this year's draft somehow for fuire picks and current points, grab dean and ison and another player late (may still be before Ison but not dean)

The aforementioned Essendon trade pays for Dean at 10 (Dees), and Ison at 25.

We can move even further up if we think the bid for Dean won't come before 11 (Dees), 15 (GWS) and more again if it won't come before 17 (Dogs), it just gets a little harder to pay for Ison at 25 if we don't start talking 2027 futures in a larger swap with someone like West Coast.

Essendon and Richmond trades on their own leave us a little high and dry unless both bids are reasonably late (or we only take Essendon's 2nd pick to enhance our point tally), but they could unlock a trade with West Coast that helps set us up much better.

Relies on West Coast being happy to slide down 2 or 3 spots in the open pool and picking up one of the Essendon 2nd rounders as part of that as we take their 3rd rounders.

I think if we do it right - and Melbourne aren't interested in bidding for Dean - that opens up a lot of opportunities for us.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Maybe... but acting in bad faith won't go unnoticed by other clubs too...

I don't think they're in a position to act in bad faith - their picks this year sit right on Dean's widely accepted value, with suggestions that he could be bid on even earlier. Walker is genuinely in the frame for top 2-3 next year, with plenty of water still to go under the bridge, so if they're bottom three then a bid would be fair play.

 

[Blue__Balls]

which is why I'm keen on farrow, lindsay and oskar taylor

I'd be stoked if we got Farrow, think he's high floor, moderately high ceiling - much safer than someone like Lindsay who, while elite by foot, has question marks on his ability to win the ball and impact defensively.

Assuming he has a smidge ore growth in him, I reckon Farrow has the height, athleticism and ability to play the Gov/Haynes role, which could in turn allow us to explore moving O'Farrell forward in the next couple of years (as I believe Soapy V has suggested there's an appetite for within the club). If not, I think he'd still make a very fine half back flank, and there's clearly a school of thought that he could push midfield a little later in his career.

 

[GT619]

I'd be stoked if we got Farrow, think he's high floor, moderately high ceiling - much safer than someone like Lindsay who, while elite by foot, has question marks on his ability to win the ball and impact defensively.

Assuming he has a smidge ore growth in him, I reckon Farrow has the height, athleticism and ability to play the Gov/Haynes role, which could in turn allow us to explore moving O'Farrell forward in the next couple of years (as I believe Soapy V has suggested there's an appetite for within the club). If not, I think he'd still make a very fine half back flank, and there's clearly a school of thought that he could push midfield a little later in his career.

with newy and saady getting old, it's a need I think to improve our kicking efficiency

 

[Blue__Balls]

with newy and saady getting old, it's a need I think to improve our kicking efficiency

Yep - Lindsay seems to be the "better" kick, but I think Farrow is still better than average and has a lot of other things going for him which will help his game transfer to AFL level.

 

[GT619]

I'd be stoked if we got Farrow, think he's high floor, moderately high ceiling - much safer than someone like Lindsay who, while elite by foot, has question marks on his ability to win the ball and impact defensively.

Assuming he has a smidge ore growth in him, I reckon Farrow has the height, athleticism and ability to play the Gov/Haynes role, which could in turn allow us to explore moving O'Farrell forward in the next couple of years (as I believe Soapy V has suggested there's an appetite for within the club). If not, I think he'd still make a very fine half back flank, and there's clearly a school of thought that he could push midfield a little later in his career.

what about Taylor

 

[GT619]

Yep - Lindsay seems to be the "better" kick, but I think Farrow is still better than average and has a lot of other things going for him which will help his game transfer to AFL level.

Farrow gives me Dawson attributes

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Barker could have been a top 10 pick if not for injury. Would also be a good pick up for us.

Agree... I think he has HUGE upside... at a worst case this outcome would be good.
This isnt to say I wouldn't rather a Josh Lindsay or Dovaston etc instead as a better outcome