"Goddess" - Moderator
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AFLW 2025 - AFLW Trade and Draft - All the player moves
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Analysis 2025 Draft watch
- Thread starter WalshistheGOAT
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- Sep 28, 2018
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…Is your phone bugged….?
- Apr 20, 2006
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It would be near impossible to get a better deal without dealing with West Coast.
Who knows they might offer, I think it’s pick 38 and future second for pick 9 and they will make sure that Dean gets to at least pick 6. We can’t really do better than that without working with West Coast.
They aren’t really screwing us but they can get something out of us
- Apr 20, 2006
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If I was West Coast I’d be bidding on Patterson and Uwland 1 and 2, hoping that they do actually get one of them.
Noway do we not take Dean or Brisbane not take Annable at ~5.
I don’t think any of those 4 being bid on before West Coasts second selection is that outrageous considering their talent.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
Thought it would be interesting to do some guesswork at scenarios for our draft hand, given how likely it is we are trading our first round picks.
Scenario 1:
Bid on Dean between pick 1-4 (live picks excluding bids)
Match with 9 & 11, use the leftover pick to match Ison, take a third player late in the draft.
Looks like: Bid at pick 3 (1960 to match) match with pick 10 and 12, get pick 30 back.
Scenario 1a:
Bid on Dean between pick 1-4 (live picks excluding bids)
Offer for a trade down to get more points. Match and take Ison and a third player late.
Looks like: Bid at pick 3, trade 10 to WCE for 14 and 32 (assuming Uwland bid at 2 and match).
Match bid with 12, 14 get pick 39 back
Scenario 2:
Bid on Dean 5 - 9
Trade out 9 for more points, match with 11 and take a player before Ison if possible. At this point other bids are likely to have occured and to bring our later picks in a bit, which gives us more options.
Looks like: Bid at 6 (1493 to match) (Uwland, Annable, Patterson bids already) Trade pick 12 for pick 15 and pick 30. Match with pick 14 and pick 15 get pick 29 back. Probably consider other trades for more optimal use.
Scenario 3
No bid on Dean before 9 (live pick 9, excluding bids).
Two obvious schools of thought.
Trade out of draft to get more first round picks next year, confident we can match Dean with 11
Looks like: Trade pick 9 for future 1st, maybe Adelaide? And current second rounder
Draft a player before Dean. Depends on who is available and how we rate them
Looks like Sam Cumming + Harry Dean (w/ pick 11) + Jack Ison (w/ later picks and whatever is left over from Dean match)
Scenario 4:
No Dean bid before 11.
At this point you either trade back and try and get some value elsewhere (next year or in this draft) or you just draft him.
Ideally you can trade.
Scenario 1:
Bid on Dean between pick 1-4 (live picks excluding bids)
Match with 9 & 11, use the leftover pick to match Ison, take a third player late in the draft.
Looks like: Bid at pick 3 (1960 to match) match with pick 10 and 12, get pick 30 back.
Scenario 1a:
Bid on Dean between pick 1-4 (live picks excluding bids)
Offer for a trade down to get more points. Match and take Ison and a third player late.
Looks like: Bid at pick 3, trade 10 to WCE for 14 and 32 (assuming Uwland bid at 2 and match).
Match bid with 12, 14 get pick 39 back
Scenario 2:
Bid on Dean 5 - 9
Trade out 9 for more points, match with 11 and take a player before Ison if possible. At this point other bids are likely to have occured and to bring our later picks in a bit, which gives us more options.
Looks like: Bid at 6 (1493 to match) (Uwland, Annable, Patterson bids already) Trade pick 12 for pick 15 and pick 30. Match with pick 14 and pick 15 get pick 29 back. Probably consider other trades for more optimal use.
Scenario 3
No bid on Dean before 9 (live pick 9, excluding bids).
Two obvious schools of thought.
Trade out of draft to get more first round picks next year, confident we can match Dean with 11
Looks like: Trade pick 9 for future 1st, maybe Adelaide? And current second rounder
Draft a player before Dean. Depends on who is available and how we rate them
Looks like Sam Cumming + Harry Dean (w/ pick 11) + Jack Ison (w/ later picks and whatever is left over from Dean match)
Scenario 4:
No Dean bid before 11.
At this point you either trade back and try and get some value elsewhere (next year or in this draft) or you just draft him.
Ideally you can trade.
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I think trading 9+11 for an F1 + points to match bids, is the most likely scenario and doesnt require a bid after 9 to happen. A bid from 4 onwards should make this possible, although 6-7 would give us more breathing room.
Uncle Fester
Team Captain
there will certainly be elements of a game of chicken going on - and multiple opportunities for the good carlton people of bigfooty to throw the toys out of the cot... this is going to be tricky with a capital T - the good news has to be uwland, patterson, annable, robey, duursma are just more useful in the short term to west coast and the tiges - the dean bid is plain silly for them
Rugged Blue Bagger
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Rugged Blue Bagger
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Brilliant draft sim made by Pommy in Oz
IMO we will get Dean and pick 14 or 16 as our second pick and easily taking Ison with a Geelong bid at pick 19
Ive got Bombers earliest big on Dean with their first then their second pick bid on Dean to get 14 or 16
This SIM really opens up what is achievable for us in this draft
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Given the rumoured trades floating about, wouldn't mind us having a flutter with North using our later first, then see what Richmond are interested in doing, especially if Melbourne aren't interested in Grlj*.
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- Mar 25, 2019
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Didn't one of the other youtubers create that? Thought I saw one of them on Blue Abroad who had created it.
Either way, it's fantastic.
Rugged Blue Bagger
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No that was Sotaram's version which was different.
This is POMs own program and he has opened it up for anyone to use for free. Only person to openly share their program out to the public. Absolute legend
POMs version is the only version to correctly match bids and correctly burn the picks that the bid has created. If that makes sense.
So you should notice when you play around with it youll see our 2nd pick will be a better pick than other draft guru's account for as they havent burnt the pick as they should
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- Mar 25, 2019
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Good on him, seems a great resource.
Will it allow us to draft Cody with pick#14/16 in advance (well placed glitch)….?
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Here’s how I see it playing out:
- Melbourne will be the first to bite on Dean, which pushes us back to Pick 14.
- West Coast (WCE) will bid on Uwland at #2. They’ll walk away with Duursma and CDT.
- Richmond will bid on Annable and Patterson, ending up with X. Taylor and Robey.
- Essendon won’t bid - our alliance against AFL injustice holds strong! Plus, Dean isn’t a pressing need for them. They’ll likely take Sharp and Cumming.
- Melbourne, as mentioned, bids on Dean and ends up with Schubert and Farrow.
- Hawthorn will grab whichever of Farrow/Grlj Melbourne doesn’t select.
Which leaves us with a choice between:
Dovaston, Marsh, Lindsay … or we trade out to 2026 and pick up some later points for Ison.
Bletch
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- Dec 8, 2020
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Great work by Pommy.
It's not as fully featured as Sotaram's, but it's a lot cleaner. And it's available.
Kudos Pommy!
Rugged Blue Bagger
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And the most important part, especially for us is its correct with bid matches which Sotarams isnt unfortunately
Rugged Blue Bagger
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Agree, even if Bombers bid on Dean with their 2nd pick we still get pick 14
I used a worse case scenario for Ison with Cats bidding at their pick 19 and we still easily get Ison also
Fantastic outcome
If Richmond bid on Dean with their first pick we get pick 21
If Richmond bid on Dean with their second pick we get pick 18
Bombers first pick on Dean we get pick 16
Bombers second pick on Dean we get pick 14
Melbourne first we get pick 14
Melbourne second pick we get pick 14
Pick 14 is still the pick after Hawks pick
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Looking forward to the draft do we really rate the Geelong small forward or is he a fall back if Dean bid is too high.
Do we really rate Dovaston if we get a crack.
Personally ide rather a shiny new toy now than delayed satisfaction next year if we get an opportunity at 16 but they have to be able to kick the bloody ball or I’m not interested.
If that’s the one skill that they need to tidy up forget it.
Let’s go next year
Do we really rate Dovaston if we get a crack.
Personally ide rather a shiny new toy now than delayed satisfaction next year if we get an opportunity at 16 but they have to be able to kick the bloody ball or I’m not interested.
If that’s the one skill that they need to tidy up forget it.
Let’s go next year
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
If it's a Melbourne bid - or later - then we can trade ahead.
Pick 10 is a good spot for us, and your commentary on Hawthorn's strategy shows me it's an ideal spot for Richmond to trade down to. Wouldn't rule out Melbourne going for Greeves after losing Petracca and Oliver.
Also I'd be stunned if Sharp is available to Essendon, seems too valuable to both West Coast and Richmond.
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Marsh looks a terrific prospect
Dean
Marsh
Ison
All left footer’s
and you can throw Moir in for good measure !!
Jordan Ridley
Josh Battle
Tom Stewart
Brennan Cox
Esava Ratagulea
Noah Balta
Sam Taylor
Harrison Petty
Sam De Koning
Zach Reid
Mac Andrew
Max Michalanney
All drafted after Weitering who have every chance to be classified as elite/A grade defender with the potential of being better than Dean.
- Oct 4, 2018
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Cox? Ratugolea? Petty? Pretty experienced players and none of them have come close to that elite level
- Mar 25, 2019
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At the age of them being drafted none of these players were comparable to Dean this year. Stewart not even a KPD, nor are Ridley or Michalanney.
SDK was undervalued at the time imo but has regressed since his facial injuries. Started off as good as any young KPD in recent memory.
Genuine question, as I've only seen the videos, but what was wrong with Sotaram's version?
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