Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[katmanblue]

Can't see Duursma not going to WCE

Open your third eye.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Really depends where our picks and bids on Dean/ISON land.

I take it we can’t use the TDK and SOS compo picks and still get Dean and Ison haha

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I take it we can’t use the TDK and SOS compo picks and still get Dean and Ison haha

Roughly we'll need both compo for Dean and then probably have Ison covered with our current 34 & 44.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Roughly we'll need both compo for Dean and then probably have Ison covered with our current 34 & 44.

So we really we are just taking Dean and Ison from the draft?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

So we really we are just taking Dean and Ison from the draft?

A lot will change with trades and as mentioned above Ison might slide enough not to actually need matching points

 

[Stamos]

Any chance we can draft Lachy Dovaston and finally address our small forward needs? Reminds me of Watson.

The chances would be that if we traded Charlie and got a F1 as part of the trade, and then live traded into the draft.

Or if we ended up getting Band 1 for Jack, and the bid on Dean didn’t come until just prior to our 1st, and doesn’t damage our 2nd compo pick too badly.

 

[Stamos]

So we really we are just taking Dean and Ison from the draft?

Nobody could possibly know when we’re over a month out from the end of trade week, however, it would currently be odds on that Dean and Ison are our first 2 picks.

 

[DangerousD]

I’ll be pissed off if we don’t take a few players who address our need for quality small forwards, as the success rate for draftees is around 30% we need to take a few of them.

 

[bigdog43]

Really intrigued by what we do but sadly think the Dean bid will come before our pick. Sullivan Robey bolting up draft boards helps. Intrigued by the saints and bombers, I think they both need X factor and speed through the middle. But do they roll the dice on Grlj or Robey? Or go for the player like Greeves with a really high floor?

1. WCE - CDT
2. WCE - Duursma
3. Richmond - Sharp
4. Richmond - Lindsay
5. Essendon - Robey, Cumming?
6. Essendon - (Dean bid) Schubert
7. Gold Coast - Trade out?
8. St Kilda - Robey, Greeves, Cumming?
9. Hawthorn - Marsh
10. Carlton - Grlj, Dovaston, Cumming?

I personally think a bid will come from the bombers for Dean so we’ll need to trade up or out. Would love Grlj for his chaotic speed or Dovaston to address our smalls issue. The other two players that could go in the 20’s that I like are Taylor Byrne and Oscar Taylor. We must have 100 different scenarios on our draft boards.

 

[katmanblue]

I’ll be pissed off if we don’t take a few players who address our need for quality small forwards, as the success rate for draftees is around 30% we need to take a few of them.

WE are low on list spots

 

[DangerousD]

WE are low on list spots

Here’s something I’m pretty sure about, if we keep ignoring players in a certain position, we will continue to be crap,in a certain position.

I think we will have a lot of spots.

We currently have 5 main spots and we are 1 too many on the rookie list, this is with players like Hollands, Gov, Acres, Binns being shopped around.

I expect one Cat B spot to open up too.

 

[Jimmae]

If we’re holding pick 6 it won’t be ahead of the Dean bid.

Roughly we'll need both compo for Dean and then probably have Ison covered with our current 34 & 44.

Nobody could possibly know when we’re over a month out from the end of trade week, however, it would currently be odds on that Dean and Ison are our first 2 picks.

Or we could just project and see what it looks like, assuming Gold Coast and Brisbane don't trade for higher picks (they wil):

1. WCE - Duursma
2. GC (bid match) - Patterson
3. GC (bid match) - Uwland
4. Brisbane (bid match) - Annable
5. WCE - Cooper Duff-Tytler
6. Richmond - Lindsay
7. Richmond - Robey
8. Essendon - Sharp
9. Essendon - Marsh
10. St Kilda - X.Taylor
11. Hawthorn - Cumming

So, it can happen.

 

[Stamos]

So, it can happen.

Sure, but it won’t.

 

[Stamos]

Everyone has seemed to miss this

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide August extra: The 15 next best

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey looks at the players who were unlucky to miss being in August's Phantom Form Guide

www.afl.com.au

Ison listed second (ie 32).

 

[carlton_99]

Everyone has seemed to miss this

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide August extra: The 15 next best

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey looks at the players who were unlucky to miss being in August's Phantom Form Guide

www.afl.com.au

Ison listed second (ie 32).

That one says "not in order" so could be anything really

 

[Stamos]

That one says "not in order" so could be anything really

lol, I missed that bit.
It wasn’t alphabetical, so I figured it was ordered.

Anyway, hope he makes it to 37.

 

[Jimmae]

Sure, but it won’t.

Everyone has seemed to miss this

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide August extra: The 15 next best

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey looks at the players who were unlucky to miss being in August's Phantom Form Guide

www.afl.com.au

Ison listed second (ie 32).

Brisbane are currently set to wipe out their entire draft to match one bid, they have others to consider. Gold Coast can't even reasonably pay for all theirs as of right now, and will be talking fairly in-depth with Richmond, West Coast, and Essendon.

There is a reasonable scenario where a bid for Dean doesn't come until Fremantle or GWS' pick. In that scenario, there will be enough points from a band 2 compensation pick and what we have existing to pay for Dean, and then a bid for Ison - probably as high as 28 - before we have an issue with points being eaten away in our 2026 2nd round.

I don't get how you're so certain of this, because I don't think Dean is good enough to justify a top 10 bid. With Jack's departure, I think we have the wiggle room.

 

[Stamos]

Brisbane are currently set to wipe out their entire draft to match one bid, they have others to consider. Gold Coast can't even reasonably pay for all theirs as of right now, and will be talking fairly in-depth with Richmond, West Coast, and Essendon.

There is a reasonable scenario where a bid for Dean doesn't come until Fremantle or GWS' pick. In that scenario, there will be enough points from a band 2 compensation pick and what we have existing to pay for Dean, and then a bid for Ison - probably as high as 28 - before we have an issue with points being eaten away in our 2026 2nd round.

I don't get how you're so certain of this, because I don't think Dean is good enough to justify a top 10 bid. With Jack's departure, I think we have the wiggle room.

Twomey has Dean ranked at 8. McGowan has him at 5. They speak to all the recruiters, they don’t just pluck these rankings out of thin air.

The bid might come later than those rankings, but it’s not going to come later than a pick that we’re holding that’s there abouts. Other clubs aren’t going to let us get an extra top 10 player, that’s not how it works.

 

[Jimmae]

Twomey has Dean ranked at 8. McGowan has him at 5. They speak to all the recruiters, they don’t just pluck these rankings out of thin air.

The bid might come later than those rankings, but it’s not going to come later than a pick that we’re holding that’s there abouts. Other clubs aren’t going to let us get an extra top 10 player, that’s not how it works.

Neither of them get rankings even close to right at this time of year, and they're usually not in lock step about the top 10 until the last week before the draft.

Twomey's rankings aren't even factoring in the draft order yet. Yet more silly comments posted as fact.

Dean is not a better player than any of the names I've listed, and there's a few more along those lines. He's got athletic tools and has worked hard on his read, but his contested ability hasn't been pushed, and he missed a final in the CTL.

He'll have question marks about his ability to add size and how that will impact his game, as well as his ability to distribute the ball.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I think the knocks you have on Dean are pure fantasy. He's not built like Tony Notte

Tony Notte

Age

35

Ht

194cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.5

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.5

3star

M

0.5

1star

T

0.0

1star

G

0.0

1star

No current season stats available

D

6.5

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.5

3star

M

0.5

1star

T

0.0

1star

G

0.0

1star

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Must be a crap draft if Dean is rated that highly. I agree with Jimmae. Dean's a good prospect but less of a 'sure thing' than most KP players that are ranked in the top 10-12.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

If I’m West Coast, I’m taking Greeves and Robey at the top of the draft.
Pair two teammates together to cross the border and create a great combination with Harley.

 

[JJBagger]

Must be a crap draft if Dean is rated that highly. I agree with Jimmae. Dean's a good prospect but less of a 'sure thing' than most KP players that are ranked in the top 10-12.

He’s ranked that highly because he’s so far in front of every other KPD it’s not funny. He’s a top prospect still though. Footy IQ through the roof in his position

 

[Jimmae]

He’s ranked that highly because he’s so far in front of every other KPD it’s not funny. He’s a top prospect still though. Footy IQ through the roof in his position

It's a crap draft for genuine talls, and there's a host of midfield prospects that have not had a good run with injuries, leaving them in a fairly nebulous 10-30 draft range.

Dean is a stopper with some pluck as an interceptor and would be a 20-35 pick in a decent draft. I just don't see any club before Freo trying to reach.

 

[Coona Blues]

Neither of them get rankings even close to right at this time of year, and they're usually not in lock step about the top 10 until the last week before the draft.

Twomey's rankings aren't even factoring in the draft order yet. Yet more silly comments posted as fact.

Dean is not a better player than any of the names I've listed, and there's a few more along those lines. He's got athletic tools and has worked hard on his read, but his contested ability hasn't been pushed, and he missed a final in the CTL.

He'll have question marks about his ability to add size and how that will impact his game, as well as his ability to distribute the ball.

I tend to agree with this more than Stamos relying on blind “early” rankings. The draft order will largely sort itself leading up to night. That is when Twomey in particular, collates info from club feedback and that from agents.

Depending on club “needs” or strategy Dean could go top five or six, but I still believe he is more likely to make it to double figures and be “touch and go” around our compensation pick. Most of the clubs ahead of us have “sorted” their long term key position prospects. St Kilda are acquiring both Aleer and JSOS in that area to go with Wilkie and some other veterans (Howard and Cordy) as well as young Caminiti, Tauru and James Barrat from the last draft and Schoenmaker who is at least a third tall. Why would SOS reach that far, their deficiency is in the middle, and they still have to pay for their trade targets.

* has been spoken of as a suitor given their injuries, but some of those injured players are good, even great prospects headed by Reid and Hayes along with their investment in McKay. They ATM still have Ridley and Laverde along with MSD swingmen May and Blackiston.

It is not a fait accompli that Dean gets a bid in the top ten, let alone the top six. Our list managers will be prepared for any eventuality. Bear in mind the days of getting ahead of bids will largely be gone with the new draft index and reduced discount. We may choose to straight bat the Dean circumstance to reduce the possibility of the AFL introducing mooted changes for next year cutting us off from Cody.