Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Sector 7G]

I think if we get pick 2 we probably have to go for Duff-Tytler (after having bid on everyone and assuming West Coast take Duursma at pick 1).

Losing TDK, JSOS and Charlie as well as having HOF out for the year leaves us with short term and long term gaps in the list with our talls. While not being a quick fix, CDT could provide a nice tag team with HOK in the medium term.

Given we want Dean to slide this year and CW next year I doubt we would be bidding on any players

 

[marcmurphy3]

Given we want Dean to slide this year and CW next year I doubt we would be bidding on any players

I think there will be an unofficial block of clubs who won't be bidding with prospects upcoming. Brisbane, Goldcoast, Sydney, GWS, Essendon (Bewick), Port Adelaide (Salopek & Cochrane), Us.

 

[No1Suspect]

Given we want Dean to slide this year and CW next year I doubt we would be bidding on any players

Teams coping the bids this year wont have any effect on Cody next year i wouldnt have thought, so stuff em!!

 

[marcmurphy3]

Teams coping the bids this year wont have any effect on Cody next year i wouldnt have thought, so stuff em!!

We also have Dean and Ison this year? It'd be dumb to bid. No benefit to us. Only potential drawbacks.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

It'd be hard not to bid for Zeke if he's the best rated player in the draft. He would be the ideal replacement for Saad for us.

 

[Milshouse]

So if we end up with 10 and 11 this year before bids, that's is decent result I would think as 11 won't be diluted ridiculously if a Dean bid happens, still have a pick in the teens from 11 you'd think and there are a few prospects that sound quite decent, I think the top 20 still has quality

 

[LemmingMaster]

How does Dean compare to say Alix Tauru & Dan Curtin who are both key defenders taken in top 10 in previous years?

Tauru for me was the best prospect of those three. They're all slightly different in nature.
Curtin is a versatile defender that has moved into the midfield on the wing.
Tauru is a high marking tall defender that I feel could move forward long term as well.

Dean is going to hopefully play a Josh Battle styled roll in a team.

 

[ferrisb]

If we hadn't done the Jagga trade, the draft order would be

West Coast
West Coast
Richmond
Richmond
Essendon
Essendon
Melbourne
Melbourne
Carlton
Carlton
Carlton


It's
Madness
Madness

 

[bigdog43]

Surely we now offer 9 and 11 to Richmond or Essendon ?

 

[DangerousD]

Great, after weeks and weeks of Charlie Charlie Charlie, we are going to be arguing over Dean, Dean, Dean.

I’m no expert but I don’t see Dean being bid on too high, we hold pick 9 and if I had to guess I’d say Dean goes 7-12, I don’t see a huge deal being needed to climb 2 spots to get ahead of a bid if needed.

The question then becomes, who are we trading up for, or do we lose pick 9 on a bid and then just take the pick 11-15 to the draft and get a player in a more needed position?

Do we factor in that Walker coming next year is a mid?

 

[Christou2Kouta]

If we could find a way to trade up to get Cooper Duff Tytler while retaining sufficient points for Dean and Ison, that would be my plan A.

Something like pick 11 and a 2027 round 1 pick to west coast.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Robey
Lindsay
Schubert
Grlj
Cumming

No real interest in any other players around that mark. Hoping we can get one of them.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Is Mitch Marsh worth a look at our pick? Certainly has the big leg and the scoreboard impact.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Is Mitch Marsh worth a look at our pick? Certainly has the big leg and the scoreboard impact.

I think our interest in a KPF entirely depends on what the rule changes are next year. The two picks only for bids change would potentially force our hand in picking up a young KPF like Schubert, Emmett or Marsh as we'll be unlikely to select another kid on top of Cody due to the points requirements.

If it gets delayed a year I'm going straight to the midfield talent to set us up for a decade around Cody and Jagga and worry about a KPF next year in the far stronger draft.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I think our interest in a KPF entirely depends on what the rule changes are next year. The two picks only for bids change would potentially force our hand in picking up a young KPF like Schubert, Emmett or Marsh as we'll be unlikely to select another kid on top of Cody due to the points requirements. If it gets delayed a year I'm going straight to the midfield talent to set us up for a decade around Cody and Jagga and worry about a KPF next year in the far stronger draft. Robey is the only potential first round player in this year's draft who is worth losing Curnow over and I'm probably the only one who thinks a player like Liam Hetherton might be a wild card selection if we desperately want a KPF, which I think we should. Taking pick 11 at face value just because we want a shinny new toy this year might limit our opportinities. We need a subtler plan than 'see pick/use pick'.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

As things currently stand, we have 9 + 11.

Absolute worst case (and imo extremely unlikely) scenario, Ess bid on Dean with 5.

1795 - 10% = 1616 points required.

pick 9 = 1355

1616 - 1355 = 261 points required

pick 11 = 1205 - 261 = 944

So our 11 then slides back to pick 16.

Bid @ pick 6:

1659 - 10% = 1493 points required.

1493 - 1355 = 138 points required

1205 - 138 = 1067

So our 11 slides back to pick 14.

Bid @ pick 7:

1543 - 10% = 1389 points required.

1389 - 1355 = 34 points required

1205 - 34 = 1171

So our pick 11 stays where it is.

So unless Dean is bid on in the top 6, we should be fine to match without impacting our pick 11. I think a likely scenario now is, Melbourne bid on him at 8 tbh.

If they don't though, pick 9 can be used to draft whoever we want of the remaining crop and then we likely just take Dean with 11 anyway.

We need to be careful about combining 9 + 11 to move up now though...

I've seen the talk around asking Richmond for pick 4...

Well, maybe they do that trade, but the only other pick they can give back is 38.

38 + 43 + 54, look they might push forward after bid matching, but still, will be nowhere near enough to match a bid at pick 8 which requires 1299 points after the discount.

So the only suitable option up the order this year is if we can convince Essendon to give us 6 + 21 + 27 but then we'd be cutting it close...

21 + 27 + 43 + 54 = 1452 points. 1299 required for a pick 8 bid match leaves us with 153 points to match an Ison bid. We'd have to hope no one bids on him before pick 40. Of course, this isn't factoring in 43 and 54 coming up a bit due to bids consuming other picks... so we might be able to match from 33 onwards...

If the Demons are pricks and bid on Dean with 7, we'd still be able to match, but then we'd have to really hope Ison doesn't get bid on till after pick 45 or manufacture another 3rd rounder from somewhere...

 

[Yubby]

As things currently stand, we have 9 + 11.

Absolute worst case (and imo extremely unlikely) scenario, Ess bid on Dean with 5.

1795 - 10% = 1616 points required.

pick 9 = 1355

1616 - 1355 = 261 points required

pick 11 = 1205 - 261 = 944

So our 11 then slides back to pick 16.

Bid @ pick 6:

1659 - 10% = 1493 points required.

1493 - 1355 = 138 points required

1205 - 138 = 1067

So our 11 slides back to pick 14.

Bid @ pick 7:

1543 - 10% = 1389 points required.

1389 - 1355 = 34 points required

1205 - 34 = 1171

So our pick 11 stays where it is.

So unless Dean is bid on in the top 6, we should be fine to match without impacting our pick 11. I think a likely scenario now is, Melbourne bid on him at 8 tbh.

If they don't though, pick 9 can be used to draft whoever we want of the remaining crop and then we likely just take Dean with 11 anyway.

We need to be careful about combining 9 + 11 to move up now though...

I've seen the talk around asking Richmond for pick 4...

Well, maybe they do that trade, but the only other pick they can give back is 38.

38 + 43 + 54, look they might push forward after bid matching, but still, will be nowhere near enough to match a bid at pick 8 which requires 1299 points after the discount.

So the only suitable option up the order this year is if we can convince Essendon to give us 6 + 21 + 27 but then we'd be cutting it close...

21 + 27 + 43 + 54 = 1452 points. 1299 required for a pick 8 bid match leaves us with 153 points to match an Ison bid. We'd have to hope no one bids on him before pick 40. Of course, this isn't factoring in 43 and 54 coming up a bit due to bids consuming other picks... so we might be able to match from 33 onwards...

If the Demons are pricks and bid on Dean with 7, we'd still be able to match, but then we'd have to really hope Ison doesn't get bid on till after pick 45 or manufacture another 3rd rounder from somewhere...

Thanks, this is great! So if pick 6 is the starting point, this could in fact be Richmond at pick 3 after bidding on the 3 from GC and Brisbane first? Otherwise if it's Ess bid with their first at 5, it would really be pick 8 expecting the 3 academy players again. If it's melb at 7, again that's really 10. So we have enough points and our pick doesnt slip as long as the bid doesn't come from Richmond?

Also we could trade up with rich and them offering us extra picks in the future too.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Thanks, this is great! So if pick 6 is the starting point, this could in fact be Richmond at pick 3 after bidding on the 3 from GC and Brisbane first? Otherwise if it's Ess bid with their first at 5, it would really be pick 8 expecting the 3 academy players again. If it's melb at 7, again that's really 10. So we have enough points and our pick doesnt slip as long as the bid doesn't come from Richmond?

Also we could trade up with rich and them offering us extra picks in the future too.

If we deal with Rich and they offer future picks, we'd need to find someone to pass them to for more picks this year, otherwise we won't be able to match a Dean bid.

But yeah, Rich bid on Dean won't happen imo.

Ess desperately need mids, they won't bid on Dean either imo.

He's a real stretch to go top 5.

Uwland, Patterson and Annable will most likely be bid on before him. We should be fine.

 

[Blue__Balls]

As things currently stand, we have 9 + 11.

Absolute worst case (and imo extremely unlikely) scenario, Ess bid on Dean with 5.

1795 - 10% = 1616 points required.

pick 9 = 1355

1616 - 1355 = 261 points required

pick 11 = 1205 - 261 = 944

So our 11 then slides back to pick 16.

Bid @ pick 6:

1659 - 10% = 1493 points required.

1493 - 1355 = 138 points required

1205 - 138 = 1067

So our 11 slides back to pick 14.

Bid @ pick 7:

1543 - 10% = 1389 points required.

1389 - 1355 = 34 points required

1205 - 34 = 1171

So our pick 11 stays where it is.

So unless Dean is bid on in the top 6, we should be fine to match without impacting our pick 11. I think a likely scenario now is, Melbourne bid on him at 8 tbh.

If they don't though, pick 9 can be used to draft whoever we want of the remaining crop and then we likely just take Dean with 11 anyway.

We need to be careful about combining 9 + 11 to move up now though...

I've seen the talk around asking Richmond for pick 4...

Well, maybe they do that trade, but the only other pick they can give back is 38.

38 + 43 + 54, look they might push forward after bid matching, but still, will be nowhere near enough to match a bid at pick 8 which requires 1299 points after the discount.

So the only suitable option up the order this year is if we can convince Essendon to give us 6 + 21 + 27 but then we'd be cutting it close...

21 + 27 + 43 + 54 = 1452 points. 1299 required for a pick 8 bid match leaves us with 153 points to match an Ison bid. We'd have to hope no one bids on him before pick 40. Of course, this isn't factoring in 43 and 54 coming up a bit due to bids consuming other picks... so we might be able to match from 33 onwards...

If the Demons are pricks and bid on Dean with 7, we'd still be able to match, but then we'd have to really hope Ison doesn't get bid on till after pick 45 or manufacture another 3rd rounder from somewhere...

I think the math might need to be rejigged, though the outcome will probably be similar.

Now that GC have traded back in the draft, their bid matches are going to push more picks back as well.

A bid on Uwland at 2 pushes us back to 10 and 12. A bid on Patterson at 4 or 5 pushes us back to 11 and 13. A bid on Annable at 5 or 6 pushes us back to 12 and 14.

Means the earliest a bid is likely to come (given Dean seems to be universally rated behind those players) is at Pick 7, more likely to be 8 or 9 from Essendon.

A bid at 8 requires 1299 pts to match (after the discount). Picks 12 and 14 are worth 2164pts, so we'd match with 12 and 14 would move back to 18.

A bid at 9 would have Pick 14 sliding back to 16.

A bid at 10 is matched by Pick 12 alone and we'd keep 14, so if Richmond and Essendon aren't planning on calling his name then we're in a pretty good spot. If we don't move our picks around, I could see us taking Marsh, Grlj (if still on the board) or even reaching a bit for Dovaston.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think the math might need to be rejigged, though the outcome will probably be similar.

Now that GC have traded back in the draft, their bid matches are going to push more picks back as well.

A bid on Uwland at 2 pushes us back to 10 and 12. A bid on Patterson at 4 or 5 pushes us back to 11 and 13. A bid on Annable at 5 or 6 pushes us back to 12 and 14.

Means the earliest a bid is likely to come (given Dean seems to be universally rated behind those players) is at Pick 7, more likely to be 8 or 9 from Essendon.

A bid at 8 requires 1299 pts to match (after the discount). Picks 12 and 14 are worth 2164pts, so we'd match with 12 and 14 would move back to 18.

A bid at 9 would have Pick 14 sliding back to 16.

A bid at 10 is matched by Pick 12 alone and we'd keep 14.

I treated it as worst case scenario... meaning, no bids on academy players before Essendon's first pick...

maybe it's still not the worst, but I did that at like 2am lol

 

[ferrisb]

Is Mitch Marsh worth a look at our pick? Certainly has the big leg and the scoreboard impact.

Great for scoring six pointers

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

What is the likelyhood of Dean being bid on by Essendon or Melbourne? Would hope Austin is having some friendly conversations with Tim Lamb & Matt Rosa to have them direct there energy elsewhere.. Hawks will prob make the bid at pick 10, but then we could trade pick 11 back to take advantage of points needed.

 

[Blue__Balls]

What is the likelyhood of Dean being bid on by Essendon or Melbourne? Would hope Austin is having some friendly conversations with Tim Lamb & Matt Rosa to have them direct there energy elsewhere.. Hawks will prob make the bid at pick 10, but then we could trade pick 11 back to take advantage of points needed.

Who knows.

He's definitely in the mix at their picks. There's a theory that we may have an unofficial agreement with Essendon given the upcoming Walker/Bewick situation, but I think it's more wishful thinking that anything else. I'd say there's little to no chance Melbourne don't chuck in a bid at Pick 10 or 11 (allowing for earlier bid matches).

Closest to the pin - I reckon Essendon will take the player they want with their first pick, bid on Dean with their second, and treat that as "we can't really give you a free hit, but we could have been jerks and bid with our first pick so hope you appreciate that little gesture at least".

 

[Blue_Fusion]

What is the likelyhood of Dean being bid on by Essendon or Melbourne? Would hope Austin is having some friendly conversations with Tim Lamb & Matt Rosa to have them direct there energy elsewhere.. Hawks will prob make the bid at pick 10, but then we could trade pick 11 back to take advantage of points needed.

Just my opinion, I can't see Ess bidding on him. They have key back stocks and are severely lacking quality mids. I also highly doubt they'd want to bid to play games given they have some talent coming up in 27 draft and wouldn't want to act in bad faith to avoid copping their medicine.

Opposition clubs have a good idea where each other's lists are at. If Ess were really lacking second kpd options, then a bid on Dean would be more understandable.

Melbourne could be the ones. And again, they won't bid on him with their first pick given they've got another pick straight after. So their pick 8 (or whatever it slides to) could be where it happens. But again, they would probably want mids anyway given they lost Oliver and Trac. But unlikely they let Dean slide at that point.

 

[DangerousD]

I think our interest in a KPF entirely depends on what the rule changes are next year. The two picks only for bids change would potentially force our hand in picking up a young KPF like Schubert, Emmett or Marsh as we'll be unlikely to select another kid on top of Cody due to the points requirements.

If it gets delayed a year I'm going straight to the midfield talent to set us up for a decade around Cody and Jagga and worry about a KPF next year in the far stronger draft.

I still think King will move back next year as a free agent, we could be interested, you would want to be confident though, if you thought he was a strong chance then that might push you towards a different type.

Same goes for Bailey and drafting a tall