Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue and Silver]

I think the upside on Ison is huge.

Very instinctive in traffic

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I just dont think the club is going to be that desperate to trade up. So much talk of the flexibility our 6 first rounders in 3 years. I think we'll want to maximise that as much possible.

How is trading up not maximising that? One of the two this year will be used for Dean anyway. Whether they want to move up or not remains to be seen, but we're all just guessing here.

Plus we likely dont have the list spots to take more then 3 picks into the draft.

Not sure that's how it works though. Did Brisbane have 10 list spots open when they matched for Ashcroft and Marshall a couple years ago? Because they ended up with picks 40, 42, 43, 46, 48, 49, 53, 54, 56 and 73...

 

[katmanblue]

Unfortunately a few of them are contracted for next year.

 

[Stamos]

Been saying this for quite a while. He's Pendles esq with his movement in and around stoppage.

Id be shocked if he goes any later than 30 on draft night. Personally have him ranked around 15.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don't think we can go in with 6 picks without 6 spots on the list. Plus don't we need a first round pick to bid on someone in the first round?

I've lost track of the rules completely now.

Grlj is rated 13 on cal twomeys PD. He's often wrong but rarely by that much.

You do it live trading. Like I said earlier, Brisbane ended up with 10 picks to match for Levi Ashcroft and Marshall, they didn't have 10 list spots going into the draft.

As for Grlj, he really tested well at the combine and has had a good year. I just think he's a Tigers type and they won't let him slip given there isn't much gap in the top 10 this year anyway.

 

[Stamos]

Not sure that's how it works though. Did Brisbane have 10 list spots open when they matched for Ashcroft and Marshall a couple years ago? Because they ended up with picks 40, 42, 43, 46, 48, 49, 53, 54, 56 and 73...

It is.
They live traded during the draft for the extra picks.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It is.
They live traded during the draft for the extra picks.

Yeah I know... what's stopping us from doing that?

 

[Mezzoculo]

Keen to hear people's thoughts on potentially pushing one of our firsts back to next year instead of grabbing another player this year (this assumes we can still land Dean and Ison, plus another academy kid late)?

This will give us more flexibility to in a year that a) we still aren't completely clear on what the matching process for Cody will be and b) gives us a better hand for the trade / fa period (eg Butters or Humphries etc).

 

[katmanblue]

Keen to know what prople's thoughts are around potentially pushing one of our firsts back to next year instead of grabbing another player (this assumes we can still land Dean and Ison, plus another academy kid late)?

This will give us more flexibility to in a year that a) we still aren't completely clear on what the matching process for Cody will be and b) a better hand for the trade / fa period.

I want Collingwood's first. They will think they'll play finals. I think they'll drop. So we may get a good deal there.

 

[Stamos]

Yeah I know... what's stopping us from doing that?

2 things will restrict it:

• the changes to the DVI mean there are a lot less cheap picks with juicy points available, and
• there are lots of clubs who want points this year due to lots of FS, NGA and Academy players, so there will be a lot more competition for those sorts of trades

Doesn’t mean it’s impossible, just a lot more difficult this year than previously.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

2 things will restrict it:

• the changes to the DVI mean there are a lot less cheap picks with juicy points available, and
• there are lots of clubs who want points this year due to lots of FS, NGA and Academy players, so there will be a lot more competition for those sorts of trades

Doesn’t mean it’s impossible, just a lot more difficult this year than previously.

Of course, I outlined a way we could do it just to entertain the idea.

Chris Davies said we'd be looking at ways to use the picks, potentially to slide back and get more second round picks... a lot to play out still.

We might even delist a few more before the draft as well.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

Of course, I outlined a way we could do it just to entertain the idea.

Chris Davies said we'd be looking at ways to use the picks, potentially to slide back and get more second round picks... a lot to play out still.

We might even delist a few more before the draft as well.

Yeah, lots to play out.
I’d be surprised if we delisted more than 3 more.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Keen to know what prople's thoughts are around potentially pushing one of our firsts back to next year instead of grabbing another player (this assumes we can still land Dean and Ison, plus another academy kid late)?

This will give us more flexibility to in a year that a) we still aren't completely clear on what the matching process for Cody will be and b) a better hand for the trade / fa period.

I like it. Dean and Ison are great players and I don’t love this draft. Would be happy to move one to 2026 to help with signing a free agent or just take to the draft.

 

[Blue and Silver]

If North offered 25, 26 for pick 9 and a future 2nd would you take it?

Remember that pick 9 will be 12 by a Dean Bid but 25 and 26 are probably around the same position (GC and Bris picks get used)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If North offered 25, 26 for pick 9 and a future 2nd would you take it?

Remember that pick 9 will be 12 by a Dean Bid but 25 and 26 are probably around the same position (GC and Bris picks get used)

No

 

[marcmurphy3]

If North offered 25, 26 for pick 9 and a future 2nd would you take it?

Remember that pick 9 will be 12 by a Dean Bid but 25 and 26 are probably around the same position (GC and Bris picks get used)

I might do that for 11. Then trade F2 back in we need more points for Ison. I think North, Essendon and to a lesser degree Westcoast are probably the standouts if we need to trade back for points.

I think pick 9 has some real value. Probably the first pick in the draft that is really gettable.

I could see Westcoast, Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne trading amongst themselves but I think the cost to a club of acquiring a top 8 pick outside that group would be really high. Our pick on the other hand is 100% on the table.

 

[AT97]

Big wraps on Ison on the radio earlier this week

On a pod somewhere?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Keen to hear people's thoughts on potentially pushing one of our firsts back to next year instead of grabbing another player this year (this assumes we can still land Dean and Ison, plus another academy kid late)?

This will give us more flexibility to in a year that a) we still aren't completely clear on what the matching process for Cody will be and b) gives us a better hand for the trade / fa period (eg Butters or Humphries etc).

If not taking another early pick I'd probably look to promote a rookie as our 3rd selection and then add an extra mature age rookie or leave a SSP/MSD spot open

 

[BlueTongue]

Question: If Dean is not Bid on before our Pick 9 or Pick 11, what's the scenario if we use those picks on other players and Dean is bid on at say 13? Do we have enough points to match? Would we even risk not picking him by 11?

TBH, I think Richmond at Pick 4 looms as our greatest risk, or WCE at 13.

 

[Bletch]

Question: If Dean is not Bid on before our Pick 9 or Pick 11, what's the scenario if we use those picks on other players and Dean is bid on at say 13? Do we have enough points to match? Would we even risk not picking him by 11?

TBH, I think Richmond at Pick 4 looms as our greatest risk, or WCE at 13.

If it gets to our pick 11 (would be 14 by that time due to other bid matching), and Dean is still on the board, we will likely live trade 11 (14) for a pick a few places down and whatever else we can get (e.g. a F2).

We won't use both picks on other players as our later picks won't go close to matching Dean & Ison.

 

[BlueTongue]

If it gets to our pick 11 (would be 14 by that time due to other bid matching), and Dean is still on the board, we will likely live trade 11 (14) for a pick a few places down and whatever else we can get (e.g. a F2).

We won't use both picks on other players as our later picks won't go close to matching Dean & Ison.

Do you think Dean is that good (I know where Twomey rates him) that the teams before us at 9 would bid?
Richmond is the only team I can see doing it because they have previously stacked their mids & forwards and have traded one of their defenders (KPD: Tyler Young) to WCE as well as McIntosh retiring.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Do you think Dean is that good (I know where Twomey rates him) that the teams before us at 9 would bid?
Richmond is the only team I can see doing it because they have previously stacked their mids & forwards and have traded one of their defenders (KPD: Tyler Young) to WCE as well as McIntosh retiring.

Richmond will not bid on Dean...

They have a plethora of big bodied mids...

They'd want Grlj and Robey (fwd/mid option) or Cumming

 

[Bletch]

Do you think Dean is that good (I know where Twomey rates him) that the teams before us at 9 would bid?
Richmond is the only team I can see doing it because they have previously stacked their mids & forwards and have traded one of their defenders (KPD: Tyler Young) to WCE as well as McIntosh retiring.

I can only go by the published opinions. Not just CT, but most of the other outlets have him in that 5-10 range. Ask Walshy, Coona or Jim or one of the other avid draft candidate watchers here, they'll know more than me.

Some points I'll make on it though:

• the DVI changes may change how clubs view bidding on F/S and academy picks. We've seen in the past clubs haven't placed bids on these players where they might be expected to go, for a variety of reasons. Will that change? Wait and see.
• early exposure often means F/S and academy candidates start off more highly rated and drift as their draft season progresses. I don't think this is the case with Dean. He was barely spoken about before the start of this season, and his stocks have risen rapidly. I suspect he may maintain his draft ranking.
• key position players at the top end are more likely to be subject to "needs" or "list balance" drafting than mids/flankers. i.e. clubs not looking for a young KPP might overlook him at a point where he might logically be the best available pick.

 

[ESKIE]

On a pod somewhere?