Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Aphrodite]

GETTABLE: Blues weigh pick trades, inside draft plans of 'big four', trio's longer deals revealed

Cal Twomey and Riley Beveridge discuss the key clubs with top 10 draft picks, answer your questions and more

www.afl.com.au

 

[Bletch]

I come in peace.

Gettable mentioned us looking at a possible pick swap with you lads.

What do you think would be a realistic asking price for pick 9?

I’m guessing 16 and a F1 would be Carlton’s expectation. Seems a tad steep from our end though understandable from yours. Are there any other variations that would get it done?

We have a full suite of picks next year thanks to the Lions.

16 would absolutely have to be part of the deal. We need the points.

We'd certainly like another first round pick next year, so I'd think that would also need to be included.

Could possibly send a pick back, but it'd be late 40s. Other than that a F4, or a 2027 3rd.

And we'd only do the deal if a bid on Dean didn't come in the top 4.

 

[bigman]

16 would absolutely have to be part of the deal. We need the points.

We'd certainly like another first round pick next year, so I'd think that would also need to be included.

Could possibly send a pick back, but it'd be late 40s. Other than that a F4, or a 2027 3rd.

And we'd only do the deal if a bid on Dean didn't come in the top 4.

16 would be a certainty.

Would 16 plus a F2 and F3 be of interest?

I noticed you lads don’t have a F2 or F3 for next year.

Not sure it helps with a Walker bid but it does give you capital in a stronger draft.

 

[Bletch]

16 would be a certainty.

Would 16 plus a F2 and F3 be of interest?

I noticed you lads don’t have a F2 or F3 for next year.

Not sure it helps with a Walker bid but it does give you capital in a stronger draft.

Yeah, that might work.

 

[Stamos]

I come in peace.

Gettable mentioned us looking at a possible pick swap with you lads.

What do you think would be a realistic asking price for pick 9?

I’m guessing 16 and a F1 would be Carlton’s expectation. Seems a tad steep from our end though understandable from yours. Are there any other variations that would get it done?

We have a full suite of picks next year thanks to the Lions.

Can’t see another variation, because if we’re considering that trade, we’ve given up on getting another 1st round player this year aside from Dean, and then all we’re really after is points for Dean + Ison (which we already have enough of before the trade), or 2026 picks (and your 2nd + 3rd aren’t that valuable to us).

I guess there could be an option, depending on what happens with Dean, for a lesser trade for 11 rather than 9.

 

[BlueNath]

Frustratingly, Cal said on Gettable that the AFL were also waiting until AFTER this years draft to get further insight into how the bid matching is going to help inform the changes for next year. So all this posturing and working out what may be needed for Walker next year and possible deficit rules etc. is all just a guessing game. It is insane to me that decisions are being made by clubs to trade picks into future years when we have no certainty about the value those picks may have. Its a joke

 

[bigman]

Yeah, that might work.

Other clubs could offer a better deal of course.

16 plus F1 seems a good swap for you guys. I’d imagine we would ideally want something coming back like a F2 (maybe with our F3 chucked in) but since you don’t have one that makes it hard.

Tbh I’m not sure why we would want to trade up as Sharp and Cumming are almost certainly gone by that point. Unless we are massive Farrow or Phillipou fans.

Maybe we are simply floating our F2 and F3 out there to move up the order and get a better player. Pick 9 is a pretty early pick though, even in a weaker draft.

 

[bigman]

Can’t see another variation, because if we’re considering that trade, we’ve given up on getting another 1st round player this year aside from Dean, and then all we’re really after is points for Dean + Ison (which we already have enough of before the trade), or 2026 picks (and your 2nd + 3rd aren’t that valuable to us).

I guess there could be an option, depending on what happens with Dean, for a lesser trade for 11 rather than 9.

Assuming a Dean bid by Essendon, how much would 16 get pushed back if you traded 9 but kept 11?

 

[Stamos]

Assuming a Dean bid by Essendon, how much would 16 get pushed back if you traded 9 but kept 11?

Ok, assuming Uwland, Patterson and Annable bid on by West Coast/Richmond and matched.
Essendon now hold 8+9, Carlton hold 12+14, Adelaide 19.

Bid at 8, 1299 points to match, 19 slides to 28.

Bid at 9, 1220 to match, 19 slides to 25.

If we just held our picks, our second pick (currently 11 but presumably 14) would get pushed back to 18 or 16 respectively.

 

[bigman]

Ok, assuming Uwland, Patterson and Annable bid on by West Coast/Richmond and matched.
Essendon now hold 8+9, Carlton hold 12+14, Adelaide 19.

Bid at 8, 1299 points to match, 19 slides to 28.

Bid at 9, 1220 to match, 19 slides to 25.

If we just held our picks, our second pick (currently 11 but presumably 14) would get pushed back to 18 or 16 respectively.

Cheers, very confusing!

Appreciate the insight.

 

[Bletch]

Ok, assuming Uwland, Patterson and Annable bid on by West Coast/Richmond and matched.
Essendon now hold 8+9, Carlton hold 12+14, Adelaide 19.

Bid at 8, 1299 points to match, 19 slides to 28.

Bid at 9, 1220 to match, 19 slides to 25.

If we just held our picks, our second pick (currently 11 but presumably 14) would get pushed back to 18 or 16 respectively.

Adelaide's 16 would become 18, unless GC trade out their 15 beforehand. Which they probably will if they can find a buyer. And in that case, the numbers above stand.

 

[Red_man2008]

16 would be a certainty.

Would 16 plus a F2 and F3 be of interest?

I noticed you lads don’t have a F2 or F3 for next year.

Not sure it helps with a Walker bid but it does give you capital in a stronger draft.

It doesn’t help with Walker as we are required to use only two picks. Neither of which come close to Walker.

 

[Red_man2008]

Ok, assuming Uwland, Patterson and Annable bid on by West Coast/Richmond and matched.
Essendon now hold 8+9, Carlton hold 12+14, Adelaide 19.

Bid at 8, 1299 points to match, 19 slides to 28.

Bid at 9, 1220 to match, 19 slides to 25.

If we just held our picks, our second pick (currently 11 but presumably 14) would get pushed back to 18 or 16 respectively.

Which means turning pick 11 into 19 is somewhat mute. What would be use 11 to get to 19 for anything other than complete overs as the bid puts our pick 11 in that range either way.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Frustratingly, Cal said on Gettable that the AFL were also waiting until AFTER this years draft to get further insight into how the bid matching is going to help inform the changes for next year. So all this posturing and working out what may be needed for Walker next year and possible deficit rules etc. is all just a guessing game. It is insane to me that decisions are being made by clubs to trade picks into future years when we have no certainty about the value those picks may have. Its a joke

Can’t say it enough, but it’s pure incompetence by this or any administration, and no team should accept this.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

It doesn’t help with Walker as we are required to use only two picks. Neither of which come close to Walker.

That hasn't been confirmed. Either way, first rounders are of a lot of interest next year

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Frustratingly, Cal said on Gettable that the AFL were also waiting until AFTER this years draft to get further insight into how the bid matching is going to help inform the changes for next year. So all this posturing and working out what may be needed for Walker next year and possible deficit rules etc. is all just a guessing game. It is insane to me that decisions are being made by clubs to trade picks into future years when we have no certainty about the value those picks may have. Its a joke

Optimistically this could work in our favour if the matching is seen to be equitable using the new dvi and not in need of tightening up for 2026.

 

[Stamos]

Adelaide's 16 would become 18, unless GC trade out their 15 beforehand. Which they probably will if they can find a buyer. And in that case, the numbers above stand.

Yeah.
If it were 18 that we got, it would slide to 26 or 24.

 

[Stamos]

Which means turning pick 11 into 19 is somewhat mute. What would be use 11 to get to 19 for anything other than complete overs as the bid puts our pick 11 in that range either way.

So if a bid came before Melbourne, then no, we wouldn’t be trading that 2nd pick down to Adelaide.

But, if Dean lasts to Melbourne (or later), then it could be an option for multiple reasons, eg we think the kid we want at then 14 will still be there at 18/19 so we could get extra currency (F2 + 48).

 

[Benaly28]

Frustratingly, Cal said on Gettable that the AFL were also waiting until AFTER this years draft to get further insight into how the bid matching is going to help inform the changes for next year. So all this posturing and working out what may be needed for Walker next year and possible deficit rules etc. is all just a guessing game. It is insane to me that decisions are being made by clubs to trade picks into future years when we have no certainty about the value those picks may have. Its a joke

Hence why we won’t be trading any futures.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

If we already have enough points for Dean/Ison, both of whom impress me, why are we looking at trading up??

 

[Stamos]

If we already have enough points for Dean/Ison, both of whom impress me, why are we looking at trading up??

To get another player in the 1st round

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Other clubs could offer a better deal of course.

16 plus F1 seems a good swap for you guys. I’d imagine we would ideally want something coming back like a F2 (maybe with our F3 chucked in) but since you don’t have one that makes it hard.

Tbh I’m not sure why we would want to trade up as Sharp and Cumming are almost certainly gone by that point. Unless we are massive Farrow or Phillipou fans.

Maybe we are simply floating our F2 and F3 out there to move up the order and get a better player. Pick 9 is a pretty early pick though, even in a weaker draft.

We only make trades for 3 1sts these days mate. Happy for you to have pick 9 for your 16 and your 2026 and 2027 1sts.

We may even throw in a 2026 Carlton calendar featuring Charlie Curnow and a 6 pack he left in his locker.

Choose well with pick 9 legend

 

[Jimmae]

Yeah that is the issue - not sure how much our later picks come in though due to GC/brisbane bid matching which lift the point value of those picks. We could go into points deficit for 2026 which woudlnt effect Walker bid as long as Ison is bid on in the second round.

Would potentially consider doing the deal on trade night, when we will have a better idea as to what the picks will actually look like

We did cover this already: it would be points that would be deducted from the 2026 2nd round, so we'd have to have a pick in that round before the end of the 2026 trade period.

I come in peace.

Gettable mentioned us looking at a possible pick swap with you lads.

What do you think would be a realistic asking price for pick 9?

I’m guessing 16 and a F1 would be Carlton’s expectation. Seems a tad steep from our end though understandable from yours. Are there any other variations that would get it done?

We have a full suite of picks next year thanks to the Lions.

Wouldn't really want to do the trade, but 9 for 16 + 48 + 55 + F2 seems right.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If we already have enough points for Dean/Ison, both of whom impress me, why are we looking at trading up??

Because the points we have is probably overkill for Dean + Ison alone...

So instead of getting a pick 18 back for example if Dean is bid on at 8 and we use 12 + 14 to match,

We instead trade up whilst still gathering enough points to pay for both anyway.

How we could do it, remains to be seen.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I have lots of AFL player attributes:

• Levi Casboult's goalkicking
• Caleb Marchbank's injury record
• Toby Green's discipline
• Sam Frost's decision making
• Blaine Boekhurst's contested ball winning
• TDK's loyalty
• Brendan Fevola's maturity
• Lance Whitnall's nutritional habits
• Caleb Daniel's height (in very thick socks)

Sounds like you'd probably be our best small forward...