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Analysis 2025 Draft watch
- Thread starter WalshistheGOAT
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Which is why trading to get up the order this year may not make sense if its quite even after the first 2 picks
but it does kind of suggest we want a particular player, or access to a cohort of players. Otherwise if we didnt care about access to the upper end I would've thought we would be targetting points for this year and picks for next year
Told much better chance of getting good player in top 5 and after that it is very even/risky. Although many don't rate top 5 as opposed to previous years
It's about if we want a 1st round pick this year as well as Dean.
A trade with Essendon may mean that 1. the bid for Dean is delayed, 2. we get a few extra points on top of the delayed bid and 3. we get a potentially much earlier pic (9 v 14-18).
We can't really trade for points AND get another 1st round player this year.
If we're more after another F1, then that's a different story and it would purely be F + points.
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- Oct 4, 2015
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The potential Adelaide trade is interesting...
16 + F1 for 9 + 11 will not work for us in isolation.
I'm assuming 48 + 55 will be part of it as well.
If we pull the trigger on this, then chances are we know when Dean and Ison will be bid on (ballpark).
Let's assume Blue__Balls is correct with the picks we have:
18 + 38 + 43 + 49 + 50 = 1454pts
We'd want to be very confident Dean and Ison are bid on at around 10 and 35 respectively +/- no more than 2 places...
16 + F1 for 9 + 11 will not work for us in isolation.
I'm assuming 48 + 55 will be part of it as well.
If we pull the trigger on this, then chances are we know when Dean and Ison will be bid on (ballpark).
Let's assume Blue__Balls is correct with the picks we have:
18 + 38 + 43 + 49 + 50 = 1454pts
| Pick | Points Required | Remaining for Ison | Pick to match Ison bid |
| 7 | 1389 | 65 + 84 = 149 | 46 (or 1pt deficit if 45) |
| 8 | 1299 | 155 + 84 = 239 | 40 |
| 9 | 1220 | 234 + 84 = 318 | 36 |
| 10 | 1148 | 306 + 84 = 390 | 33 |
| 11 | 1085 | 369 + 84 = 453 | 31 (or 1pt deficit if 30) |
We'd want to be very confident Dean and Ison are bid on at around 10 and 35 respectively +/- no more than 2 places...
Its a ridiculous scenario, even if they throw in 48 + 55. If we traded with Crows would need to be something like 9 +43 for 16 + F1. There is no scenario in which we are giving both picks for 16+ F1.
A few things, we would probably end up with 19 rather than 18 because it sounds like the Suns are trading out their 1st, so that's 50 less points.
Also, once you get to pick #37, points don't matter at all, you just match with your next bid.
But unless we're extremely confident that Ison slides past 36, then we're going to need something else, which would probably be a 2026 F2 that we could live trade back into this draft to match a bid.
- Aug 22, 2014
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I think it's a trade we'd have agreed in-principle, and would just not actually pull the trigger on until a the Dean bid comes. If that bid is at 5, then this trade doesn't work for us and we probably just need to match with 9 + 11 and take whatever late pick comes back from that. If the bid is at 8 maybe we do it but need to have an additional trade lined up for later on when the Ison bid comes - bringing forward a future second or something of that nature. If the bid comes at 10+ then we can probably do the trade and be happy with the result.
In the unlikely scenario that we get to our first pick and Dean's name still hasn't been called - then we nab a quality player and match with our next pick. Or if we don't love the players, we dangle the live pick and see if another club wants to offer a future first plus change for it.
- Oct 4, 2015
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40 pts diff between 18 and 19.
Don't think we'd def need something else if Ison goes at say 30 as long as Dean isn't bid on before 10.
We don't have a 26F2, so unless Adelaide give us one in the trade or we shop our 27F1(Swans) around... it's going to be very difficult.
Yes, that's what I meant.
JJBagger
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This is the current state of recruiting - an obsession with what player CAN’T do rather than what they CAN do. A player like Josh Lindsay would be elite if used well within a system. Could be the best kick in the comp in a few years if utilised well.
Dyson Sharp could be in the mould of Cripps or Tom Green, but he gets deducted points because the way he plays isn’t necessarily suited to the modern game - even despite the fact you build your midfield around players like him, and he will captain his team one day.
I think the draft is good up until around pick 25. Doesn’t have the Daicos/Reid/JHF star power, but all capable of reaching elite levels. It dies out a bit after that though
CrippaTheGoat9
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I hope we don’t do that Adelaide deal, doesn’t make sense to me.
do you have Ison in the top 25?
JJBagger
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Yes I do
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To save some consternation, like many on our board I think the trade with Adelaide is being slightly misinterpreted.
It is a poorly written written article, it’s likely to mean the Crows are looking at both picks 9 and 11 but the trade will only involve one of them. 9 for 16 + F1 (Adelaide), probably with your F2/F3 going back for example.
It is a poorly written written article, it’s likely to mean the Crows are looking at both picks 9 and 11 but the trade will only involve one of them. 9 for 16 + F1 (Adelaide), probably with your F2/F3 going back for example.
i dont think we have an F2 or F3 (hayward trade and florent trades respectively)
CrippaTheGoat9
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That makes more sense. Thanks for clearing that up.
Bletch
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Didn't like Sid & Nancy? Was the first thing I'd seen him in, and have pretty much loved everything he's done since. Brilliant actor.
- Oct 4, 2015
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We gave our F2 for Ainsworth.
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Pick swap with you lads is gaining traction in the media. Personally I still have doubts but doesn’t hurt to theorise.
Hypothetically, if we were to trade with the Bulldogs for 33.
We give: 16, 33 and our F1.
You give: 9, 11 and your F4.
33 would help with an Ison bid i would imagine?
If you want a mix of this year and next year:
We give: 16, 55 (could be 48 if you twist our arm), F1 and F2
You give: 9, 11 and F4
Any thoughts? I come in peace as always.
Hypothetically, if we were to trade with the Bulldogs for 33.
We give: 16, 33 and our F1.
You give: 9, 11 and your F4.
33 would help with an Ison bid i would imagine?
If you want a mix of this year and next year:
We give: 16, 55 (could be 48 if you twist our arm), F1 and F2
You give: 9, 11 and F4
Any thoughts? I come in peace as always.
Spanner here. They want CDT. Gonna need both to get him.
A lot will depend on when the bid for Dean comes.
In your first suggestion (how are you getting 33?), those picks will likely become 19 & 29.
It's probably going to leave us a little short.
Likewise your 2nd offer.
We could live trade your F2 into this year to match an Ison bid, but we're not going to have any points to cover, unless Dean slides a little.
- Jul 27, 2023
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Essendon already have what they bed for CDT.
5,6 for 2,13 which probably ends up 2,17 for 9,10.
Getting 33 would probably roughly look like:
We give: 48, 64, F2
They give: 33, F3
Alternatively we could deal with North should they be willing to part with 26.
Would likely require our F2 and 48 at the minimum, we probably wouldn’t have enough to give them.
- Oct 4, 2015
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What are you trading to the Dogs to get their pick 33?
I doubt this scenario works out for us anyway, I made a table earlier which showed what making this trade means for us in terms of bid matching. Basically, your pick 16 will be 18 by the time there's a bid on Dean (most likely).
That's 836 points. So if Dean is bid on at pick 10 for example, we need 1148 points. So while 33 obviously helps, that's maybe going to come in to ~30 so lets say its another 454 points.
836 + 454 = 1290 points. Minus the bid for Dean at 10 in our example and we're left with only 142 points. Plus 84 to that for bids after pick 18 and we basically have 226 points to play with for Ison. Which is essentially useless to us given after pick 36 we just have to match with whatever next pick we have.
So for us to want to do it, we'd basically need your 48 + 55 as well as 16 + 33 (if you can get that from the Dogs) + your F1. That would put us in a position to match both Dean and Ison comfortably. But I don't know if you guys would be willing to give that much up...
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