Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Mate, relax. We're not going to help them unless it also helps us. Simple as that. Mutually-beneficial trades are the preference for pretty much all List Managers - find something that helps us both and leave all the dick-measuring to idiots like Dodo and Macky.

I think the masses are getting far too excited before any pick swaps have even happened. If Dean isnt bid on until Bombers picks or later we have no need to swap any picks and likely wont.
Lets see where the bid comes in first, then if its early we will be better off swapping picks to benefit our club the most

 

[carlton_99]

So lets get this right from Twomey. We are looking to help with Scum.

Ok i have heard it all. Come right up, Come right up. Bargains at Carlton.

Far out when are we gonna be ruthless.

Teams pay a premium for 1st round picks and we are giving them up for late 1st rounders and seconds.

As for WC, who embarassly asked the AFL for assistance after not long winning a grand final as they are inept. And we never got any help. And they have been helped by getting pick 2 for an ordinary but good player.

And now they are being tough and wanting to stuff Carlton up?

Wish we had that two faced mentality and shameless mentality.

We are giving 9 up for an increase in points because that's what we need to bring in Dean and Ison. If that FoxSports Phantom Draft is right with where the bids land we gain a F2 from North by making these deals.

Turns out to essentially be 9 and 11 for Dean, Ison and a North F2 rather than just Dean and Ison if we hold our picks.

List managers aren't going to do a deal like this unless it actually helps their team.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

do WC really have Dean rated over CDT?

Of course they don't. It's all just cat and mouse.

WC: "Let us trade up from 13, we want Farrow."

Carlton: "Nah."

WC: "Fine, then we'll improve 13 by wiping out your picks with a Dean bid."

Carlton: "Fine, then we'll trade 9 and 11 away to ensure they get used and your 13 still doesn't improve."

 

[dangertroy]

If Dean is bid on at 2 or 3, we can bypass and will most likely get two of Gril, Doverston and Lindsey. Then Ison later on.

Grjl, Dovaston, Lindsay - all would fit a list need for players whose names we get wrong.

More evidence we need to match a bid for Dean - autocorrect doesn’t stuff that one up.

 

[bradfisher14]

And it's not even Dean so much that is affecting our next pick, it's Ison.
If we were confident that h'e make it till the 3rd round, it would make a pretty dramatic change to our strategy. But it's looking like he's going to get called night 1.
So we're getting 2 First rounders.

Exactly, but people around here will still complain.

 

[Mondyboy]

Will we have pick then? If we trade 9 & 11 and Dean is picked by WCE not sure we will have any picks in that range left

It somewhat depends on when Ison is taken and whether we get pick 30 in the trade with the Bombers. But with 21, 25 and 27, we should have a surplus that gives us a pick in the mid 30s.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

So lets get this right from Twomey. We are looking to help with Scum.

Ok i have heard it all. Come right up, Come right up. Bargains at Carlton.

Far out when are we gonna be ruthless.

Teams pay a premium for 1st round picks and we are giving them up for late 1st rounders and seconds.

As for WC, who embarassly asked the AFL for assistance after not long winning a grand final as they are inept. And we never got any help. And they have been helped by getting pick 2 for an ordinary but good player.

And now they are being tough and wanting to stuff Carlton up?

Wish we had that two faced mentality and shameless mentality.

“embarassly” says it all.

Calls for ruthlessness ignores the context that surrounds this draft, what we have & what it’s worth in the open market.

 

[Poorman53]

Grjl, Dovaston, Lindsay - all would fit a list need for players whose names we get wrong.

More evidence we need to match a bid for Dean - autocorrect doesn’t stuff that one up.

I'll pass that one onto Austin. I'm more than happy for us to match any bid on Dean if that's where we rank him.

 

[Bronze]

At this rate tomorrow Harry Dean will be rated #1 and be the best #1 since Nick Riewoldt.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

People are getting too carried away with numbers in this draft pool...there are few if any standouts....if you gave any recruiter hindsight goggles and asked if they would take a 200 game AFL player who fits a need anywhere in this first round they'd take that 10 times out of ten

 

[Bic]

So lets get this right from Twomey. We are looking to help with Scum.

Ok i have heard it all. Come right up, Come right up. Bargains at Carlton.

Far out when are we gonna be ruthless.

Teams pay a premium for 1st round picks and we are giving them up for late 1st rounders and seconds.

As for WC, who embarassly asked the AFL for assistance after not long winning a grand final as they are inept. And we never got any help. And they have been helped by getting pick 2 for an ordinary but good player.

And now they are being tough and wanting to stuff Carlton up?

Wish we had that two faced mentality and shameless mentality.

Relax.

Firstly, this draft is no good. Have a look over last year and this year how many clubs gave away their first round picks. The fact Essendon are buying into their rebuild in this draft is a huge risk, one I hope they take lol.

We're basically committed to our two lads and doing so by trying to do by being able to match it with as late as picks as possible AND getting as many picks/points into next year as well.

Note, that NOBODY in the ENTIRE LEAGUE has traded a first rounder from this draft for a first into next draft. NOBODY.

Don't get sucked into the hype of the draft, this team have spent all year knowing this, not just the last week. Back them in.

 

[Mondyboy]

Okay. Thought is was someone on here I hadn't heard of

Pommy is great. Does all the hard work.

 

[Matty411]

Surprised to see Eagles be the ones to bid - thought it'd come much later. Not surprised to see us proactively moving things around. Did we hope to get our 2 x guys PLUS a first round talent?

Sure.

Do things change, and as a result we must change with them?

100%.

If anything, there are a few great positives to come from this (if it happens as reported):

• Dean is rated top 3 by Eagles (and likely a few others) - we've got a great one on our hands here and will be the 2nd of 3 x consecutive top-end kids that we'll bring in through the draft. Without a bottom 3 finish - this is huge.
• This is the last year we'll be able to match F/S bids by amassing points. We've not had the chance to take advantage of this ala Brisbane and Collingwood, so it's great to see the club being proactive.
• With the change of tact by West Coast with the bid, these moves essentially see us pick up a bonus F2 to help guarantee Cody and/or strengthen our hand in a stronger draft. North not the worst team to death ride either.

 

[Mondyboy]

Relax.

Firstly, this draft is no good. Have a look over last year and this year how many clubs gave away their first round picks. The fact Essendon are buying into their rebuild in this draft is a huge risk, one I hope they take lol.

We're basically committed to our two lads and doing so by trying to do by being able to match it with as late as picks as possible AND getting as many picks/points into next year as well.

Don't get sucked into the hype of the draft, this team have spent all year knowing this, not just the last week. Back them in.

You've been a calm, measured voice in all the panic.

 

[Soapy V]

Bottom line is I reckon we will swap both 9 & 11 for later picks and some next year, then will take Dean and Ison with points and move on

That will be it with two spots for a rookie and/or SSP's

That's my take

 

[Stamos]

Why this year’s compromised AFL draft is so difficult to predict

There are many reasons why predicting this year’s AFL draft is so tough - and it goes beyond the academy and father-son players scattered throughout.

www.theage.com.au

 

[carlton fan]

Sure - but to your point re: not getting another draftee in the 20's range this year, that NM future second is something that could absolutely get us back on the board this year. And having it as a future asset is actually quite helpful, as it's not impacted at all by an early bid for Dean. It holds it's value through all this year's permutations, and we can dangle it as long as we want and as long as there is a player we'd be happy to spend it on.

I think ison is better than where he will go in the draft given our discount we get for him
No point picking a player in the 20s in a supposed weak draft
We have enough depth and developing players
Get a second round pick in next years stronger draft

 

[Blue__Balls]

Bottom line is I reckon we will swap both 9 & 11 for later picks and some next year, then will take Dean and Ison with points and move on

That will be it with two spots for a rookie and/or SSP's

That's my take

Agree - with the added benefit of retaining the flexibility to trade a future pick back in this year if the opportunity presents to grab a kid late who we like.

Future picks = adaptability = options.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Bottom line is I reckon we will swap both 9 & 11 for later picks and some next year, then will take Dean and Ison with points and move on

That will be it with two spots for a rookie and/or SSP's

That's my take

Can't really blame the club for bids coming earlier then expected. Made it hard to plan. The club has always said, they would decide what to do with the picks closer to the draft, when it was clearer where bids would land. Thats what they are doing.

Even if whats been reported does occur, I dont think we end up disadvantaged, its just not really much advantage anymore. End up paying 95c on the dollar for our guys. Still worth it but not by that much.

 

[carlton fan]

Gut feel tells me pass on Dean and use 9 & 11.
Is Dean better than combination of Dovaston & Sharp?
Jimmae is just stating an inconvenient truth and embracing the discomfort that the list management can not be based on sentimentality

Can guarantee dean will be a Carlton player in 2026

 

[Soapy V]

Can't really blame the club for bids coming earlier then expected. Made it hard to plan. The club has always said, they would decide what to do with the picks closer to the draft, when it was clearer where bids would land. Thats what they are doing.

Even if whats been reported does occur, I dont think we end up disadvantaged, its just not really much advantage anymore. End up paying 95c on the dollar for our guys. Still worth it but not by that much.

What more could we do?

If they weren't F/S or Academy and we got them with normal picks I am sure most would be happy. Still two very good players in a poor draft and we will still bring in two more players that will likely be more mature and ready to play if needed

We now have a very young list

 

[Bfevola]

CCCurnow3picks. Is there any need to attack me personally. Oh sorry i spelled embarrassingly wrong as i was rushing.

I am not a 12 year old girl on school holidays ok.

This is a debate and conversation and peoples opinions. No one is right or wrong.

So chill out with the personal attacks. I dont appreciate it.

 

[Uncle Fester]

no matter how bad the draft is - there will be very decent players available when our picks fall - at worst 12 & 14, and very few will want to see those picks gobbled up. Its just going to be a situational mad house, which will change as the dimensions change

the dimensions are reasonably mind bending

1. Players taken, in which order - and the points and picks they cost and consume - i cant help think that Gold Coast could do something weird and happily let some of their high value picks get eaten up if people dont offer appropriate value to prove a point
2. Players left - who has slipped? who has fallen in love with them? what are they prepared to pay? This is the big one - Adelaide, North, Collingwood could all get frisky
3. The way later picks (10-30) move forward and back

im looking forward to this as noone knows how this will actually pan out - as many have said, we end up with Harry & Jack, no matter what, just need to hope that we extract the best value and dont sell too early

the only thing we know is that WHEN the pick for Dean happens - all hell will break loose- i cant see anything happen until that moment, unless the offer is too good to refuse - which it wont be

 

[RPCB]

Either this draft is the shittest draft in years.

Or Harry Dean is not worth matching a bid on despite being often called the best key defender in the draft… because there are several other players we should be drafting instead.

I’d be shocked if Harry Dean is not a Carlton player on Wednesday night.

 

[Blue__Balls]

What more could we do?

If they weren't F/S or Academy and we got them with normal picks I am sure most would be happy. Still two very good players in a poor draft nd we will still bring in two more players that will likely be more mature and ready to play if needed

We now have a very young list

Amusing isn't it.

Hypothetical :

Dean and Ison have no link to Carlton, they're just open draft pool options

The club trades Picks 9 and 11 to Essendon for Picks 5 and 21.

At Pick 6 (after a matched bid on Uwland), with fancied athletic mids in Duursma and Robey already gone, as well as the highly rated ruck/forward Duffman, Carlton select Harry Bean, a combative young KPD with smarts, speed and solid disposal who impressed recruiters with an excellent and consistent season.

At Pick 21 (or thing between 20 and 24 anyway, depending on bid matching), with a variety of player types still on offer, Carlton select Jack Oson, an athletic utility with a quality left foot, and the height to force some really difficult matchups inside 50 or on the wing.

Bravo Carlton - turned two middling first rounders into a bankable partner and eventual successor to Weitering, and a versatile half-forward/wing/maybe-even-half-back with better kicking skills than 90% of our current list.

The "angst" is entitlement. People think because we were always getting these two players we should have got more this year. That's not how it works. We got more....over the next few years. Multiple first rounders in the next few drafts, including one where we'll need a strong draft hand to potentially match a top 3 bid on Cody Walker. Heaven forbid he's bid on at Pick 1 or 2 next year, we'll have posters demanding the club let him go to Richmond so we can draft a couple of other players at Pick 8 and 15.