Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue and Silver]

What amateur recruiters, including the media ones, look at is game day performance.

They don't get to see all sorts of stuff, training, nutrition, off-field behavior etc. etc.

Even then they may not get to see all the games that a player plays in a year.

Clubs have large recruiting teams for a reason.

There is a lot to cover and you don't want other teams to steal a march on you by hiding a kid.

So, on balance, I err on the side of the professionals

For example.

Every time I watch Duursma I see potential, but frankly I think he's pretty likely to be just ok. Like 150 games, don't notice he's playing type. Like Jack Scrimshaw has ended up after some insane hype in his draft year.

But I am just some guy watching footage on YouTube

 

[CoM]

Fox Footy Phantom draft Monday morning …

Updated Phantom Draft: Big top-15 calls, bid NOT matched as first 30 AFL picks predicted

Updated Phantom Draft: Big top-15 calls, bid NOT matched as first 30 AFL picks predicted

www.foxsports.com.au

As to Eagles, they are said to genuinely want Harry Dean at Pick 3 (of the Phantom):

“In the mix/trade watch: This is why Carlton has moved out of Picks 9 and 11, for the Dean bid is set to come a lot earlier than the Blues had hoped. Yet the Eagles genuinely want Dean as he is no doubt the type of player that would fill a list need, so they’ll ask the Blues to pay up. While it’s meant the Blues have had to move quickly in recent days to find more draft points from other clubs, sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au believe the Eagles’ move is justified, with Dean ranked at the pointy end of many club draft boards. This all means Cooper Duff-Tytler will now likely wait another pick before being officially drafted.“

Ison at Pick 22 in predicted first round of 29.

We had lots of picks to play with during the trade period, yet Austin et al clearly got their forecasts wrong which is hurting us now. We are coming across as desperate for more points in this draft (which may or may not be needed) which makes it challenging in receiving fair value for premium selections. Missing out on a top 20 selection because of the mismanagement is a missed opportunity because we need more quality and have more gaps to fill.

 

[dangertroy]

The persecution complex around this place really bothers me sometimes. Half of us seem to think that everyone is out to get us.

West Coast is going to screw us by bidding on Dean at 3. The media is screwing us by rating him one of the best players in the draft when he wasn’t last year. Forgetting that he improved out of sight and we will get the best KPD in the draft regardless.

The new draft bidding system has been brought in this year just to screw us. Forgetting that they’ve been looking to reform it for years, and we cheered when it didn’t come in last year and we got two when got 2 xFS picks dirt cheap.

SOS is a screwing us by taking two free agents. Forgetting we got two first round picks out of it. Forgetting the lunatic overs he had to offer to turn their heads and how that screwed their pursuits of other players, and their existing players held them to ransom.

Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t all out to us?
I know this has been a tough post season for us. But there are plenty of positives in it all if you choose to look for them.

It’s hard, but I reckon we can do it. Then we can all get back to blaming it all on Andrew Russell.

 

[GoBlues!]

The wording is semantics they are bidding on a player they are not getting so there is no tangible benefit other than screw Carlton over.

l can understand them bidding on a player they have a chance of getting but there is no tangible benefit for West Coast.

That is exactly how the system is meant to work though.

So you’re saying the bidding system is meant to be used to bring no tangible benefit to the bidding team…

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

But you just know if and when we have the opportunity to make them pay, we won't.

Eh...we're only on the second refresh of our third re-build.

We'll have plenty of chance to re-pay the favour.

 

[KohPhi]

The persecution complex around this place really bothers me sometimes. Half of us seem to think that everyone is out to get us.

West Coast is going to screw us by bidding on Dean at 3. The media is screwing us by rating him one of the best players in the draft when he wasn’t last year. Forgetting that he improved out of sight and we will get the best KPD in the draft regardless.

The new draft bidding system has been brought in this year just to screw us. Forgetting that they’ve been looking to reform it for years, and we cheered when it didn’t come in last year and we got two when got 2 xFS picks dirt cheap.

SOS is a screwing us by taking two free agents. Forgetting we got two first round picks out of it. Forgetting the lunatic overs he had to offer to turn their heads and how that screwed their pursuits of other players, and their existing players held them to ransom.

Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t all out to us?
I know this has been a tough post season for us. But there are plenty of positives in it all if you choose to look for them.

It’s hard, but I reckon we can do it. Then we can all get back to blaming it all on Andrew Russell.

Best to jump in here every second Wednesday.. that's when the Flat Earthers generally meet, and the rest of us can talk footy!!

 

[macky99]

That is exactly how the system is meant to work though.

The afl systems continue to be completely flawed.

 

[lukep_86]

The wording is semantics they are bidding on a player they are not getting so there is no tangible benefit other than screw Carlton over.

l can understand them bidding on a player they have a chance of getting but there is no tangible benefit for West Coast.

Interesting point made in the Sotaram/Blue Abroad video about bidding.

I'm paraphrasing but it's not so much about Dean in isolation, but more about other clubs doing what they can to stop us adding Dean and another player with 9 and 11.

It's all part of it and I'd expect us to do the same if situations were reserved. Plus there's going to be plenty of bids for academy players on Wednesday night.

 

[reubsblues]

It is what it is! so who ****ing cares

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Don't bid on Dean and get him in 2 years' time when Harley Reid walks out on them as well. Dont do the trade with Essendon and keep pick 9.

It’s 3 years now for first round draftees

 

[Stamos]

So you’re saying the bidding system is meant to be used to bring no tangible benefit to the bidding team…

It makes teams pay a fair price for their player, or alternatively, allows teams to get the player they value more than the aligned team does, or can afford.

The alternative would be for Father Sons, NGA and Academy players being free.

Can you imagine the bleating?

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Honestly - I would go with not necessarily "screwing over" but making pay. It is a competitive environment and I have never seen why clubs like say North, let Daicos slip to 4 just so JHF could have his ego stroked that he went 1.

Given everyone knows Dean is going to go to Carlton - why would you let Carlton get him at 8 -10 (where most people have him rated) when you can force them into matching at 3 - when you have to compete against Carlton.

Who is “most people”?

 

[Stamos]

The afl systems continue to be completely flawed.

The draft system for 2025 might not be perfect, but it’s by far the best that the AFL have had.

 

[Tommy Alvin]

The persecution complex around this place really bothers me sometimes. Half of us seem to think that everyone is out to get us.

West Coast is going to screw us by bidding on Dean at 3. The media is screwing us by rating him one of the best players in the draft when he wasn’t last year. Forgetting that he improved out of sight and we will get the best KPD in the draft regardless.

The new draft bidding system has been brought in this year just to screw us. Forgetting that they’ve been looking to reform it for years, and we cheered when it didn’t come in last year and we got two when got 2 xFS picks dirt cheap.

SOS is a screwing us by taking two free agents. Forgetting we got two first round picks out of it. Forgetting the lunatic overs he had to offer to turn their heads and how that screwed their pursuits of other players, and their existing players held them to ransom.

Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t all out to us?
I know this has been a tough post season for us. But there are plenty of positives in it all if you choose to look for them.

It’s hard, but I reckon we can do it. Then we can all get back to blaming it all on Andrew Russell.

Amen to that!!

I am so sick of hearing the “Carlton got robbed” crap. It’s just delusional and even worse, collectively causes paranoia.

How about we all put our big pants on, take a teaspoon of cement and come to terms with the fact that the only reason we have issues within our club is self prophecy. No one is out to get us and there isn’t an agenda to **** Carlton.

TA

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

What amateur recruiters, including the media ones, look at is game day performance.

They don't get to see all sorts of stuff, training, nutrition, off-field behavior etc. etc.

Even then they may not get to see all the games that a player plays in a year.

Clubs have large recruiting teams for a reason.

There is a lot to cover and you don't want other teams to steal a march on you by hiding a kid.

So, on balance, I err on the side of the professionals

A cursory glance at many of our past predictions would remind us not to take it too seriously.

People were mad for Lukosius. I can recall one vocal forumite hoping we'd trade up for Tsatas. Pretty well every great value slider we couldn't believe got to us over the years slid right off the list shortly thereafter.

I remember not wanting Dow, so consider myself somewhat qualified.

 

[Bundy Bear Bogan]

Amen to that!!

I am so sick of hearing the “Carlton got robbed” crap. It’s just delusional and even worse, collectively causes paranoia.

How about we all put our big pants on, take a teaspoon of cement and come to terms with the fact that the only reason we have issues within our club is self prophecy. No one is out to get us and there isn’t an agenda to **** Carlton.

TA

 

[KohPhi]

A cursory glance at many of our past predictions would remind us not to take it too seriously.

People were mad for Lukosius. I can recall one vocal forumite hoping we'd trade up for Tsatas. Pretty well every great value slider we couldn't believe got to us over the years slid right off the list shortly thereafter.

I remember not wanting Dow, so consider myself somewhat qualified.

I atill remember some on the Board banging on about Serhat Temel..

Although i was shattered when Didymus Blanket wasn't drafted by us (nor anyone)..
He was inconsistent, but his best was electric.

 

[zeeCFC]

I atill remember some on the Board banging on about Serhat Temel..

Although i was shattered when Didymus Blanket wasn't drafted by us (nor anyone)..
He was inconsistent, but his best was electric.

Waylon Manson

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don’t think we have been addressing the issue of our poor small forwards very well.

This is my issue with only taking Dean and ISON if that’s what eventuates

Well we were looking at taking Dovaston or Pickett... unfortunately, WC want to be campaigners and bid on Dean with #3 so that plan gets scrapped.

Couple of really good small forwards will be there next year though.

 

[Blue and Silver]

A cursory glance at many of our past predictions would remind us not to take it too seriously.

People were mad for Lukosius. I can recall one vocal forumite hoping we'd trade up for Tsatas. Pretty well every great value slider we couldn't believe got to us over the years slid right off the list shortly thereafter.

I remember not wanting Dow, so consider myself somewhat qualified.

I could list dozens of guys who were rated high on BF and slid or weren't drafted.

There's also a ton of guys who don't progress as hoped for. Nature of the business.

I wanted SPS big time. But he just never had the tank.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Forgot swans 2026 first rounder

I actually did mention F1 x2... Walker will cost us both thanks to the corrupt AFL...

 

[Blue and Silver]

Waylon Manson

Tom Lamb

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Amen to that!!

I am so sick of hearing the “Carlton got robbed” crap. It’s just delusional and even worse, collectively causes paranoia.

How about we all put our big pants on, take a teaspoon of cement and come to terms with the fact that the only reason we have issues within our club is self prophecy. No one is out to get us and there isn’t an agenda to **** Carlton.

TA

Yeah... definitely not...

 

[Poorman53]

Wouldn't West Coast be of most benefit by not bidding on Dean at 3?

We'd clearly trade out 9 and 11 when the bid comes, resulting in Essendon and North then holding 9 and 11.

If West Coast don't bid on Dean and Essendon does, Carlton would be more inclined to hold their original picks. 9 would get absorbed (good for WC) and originally our pick 11 would push out past West Coasts next pick (also good for West Coast)...

 

[ashstores]

Hopefully the Carlton recruiting team have a long memory. Have to get WC back for this at some stage.

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.