2025 Federal Election: A Pox o'....Just one of your houses, apparently.

[Caesar]

Ah ma dude. I agree but there is a much bigger emotional issue where it's a lifestyle. It's not like changing jobs from middle management public servant to a corporate middle manager. You have a heap more factors on terms of these farms have been generational, farmers are skilled in this trade. Personally I know the government is offering grants to change and diversify but it's not accounting for a lot of risk changing the farm and growing different crops (plus, how much do you grow? What do you grow? Can you grow it?

I don't think it's a scare campaign when it's pretty scary of what could happen if not phased out correctly and without help. This is coming from a dude who votes greens grew up in these community's, was vegetarian for a large part of my life and wanted live export to stop for years before even the 4 corners exposed everyone to it.

Again. I hope the liberals did get wiped out in those areas but it's not surprising they gained votes.

boggles my mind that anyone can approach stuff like this with the attitude of 'too bad, so sad'

burning communities to the ground is not the way to implement these kinds of changes unless you're genuinely indifferent to suicide rates, bankruptcies, poverty etc amongst a lot of genuinely vulnerable people

 

[liz]

LOL

View attachment 2305843

Strange framing of the outcome.

Obviously there was variation across the country, but I think this election showed a broadly cool embrace of the Labor government, rather than a warm one. Where people had a viable alternative they often took it - see Bean, see Fowler (which, given its location and the fact they had a well-regarded Labor candidate this time, really should be a Labor seat but where a large chunk of the electorate haven’t forgiven Labor for last time). Furthermore, the Labor primary vote barely changed from 2022.

But, emerging from that coolness, was an overwhelming determination that, whatever Labor offers, it is preferred to anything the Liberals have to offer.

It was, quite literally, the electorate choosing Labor over the Liberals rather than choosing Labor itself.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

I think we should all get behind Ted O'Brien as leader of the opposition.

Spread the word.

 

[Dazzler9]

Strange framing of the outcome.

Obviously there was variation across the country, but I think this election showed a broadly cool embrace of the Labor government, rather than a warm one. Where people had a viable alternative they often took it - see Bean, see Fowler (which, given its location and the fact they had a well-regarded Labor candidate this time, really should be a Labor seat but where a large chunk of the electorate haven’t forgiven Labor for last time). Furthermore, the Labor primary vote barely changed from 2022.

But, emerging from that coolness, was an overwhelming determination that, whatever Labor offers, it is preferred to anything the Liberals have to offer.

It was, quite literally, the electorate choosing Labor over the Liberals rather than choosing Labor itself.

I mean, it's all in the name. Preferences. It literally means you prefer that party to the ones you number below it.

 

[10571z]

That's pretty much what they did.

Sack public servants
Stop you working from home
Nuclear

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Sack public servants
Stop you working from home
Nuclear

-backflipped
-backflipped
-lol

 

[Dazzler9]

Sack public servants
Stop you working from home
Nuclear.

Sack public servants - no, wait, we really meant natural attrition of 41,000 public servants. Oops, sorry, just to clarify, 41,000 public servants from Canberra. And yes, we will sack them. No, hang on, 6,000 of those 41,000 are jobs that haven't been created yet. What was that Angus? We're moving them from Canberra to regional areas now? Ok. You got that everyone? We've been very clearly about this policy.

Stop working from home - women can just job share anyway. What's that, people hate this policy? Haha, just kidding gaiz, we're not really doing that.

Nuclear - sshhhhh, nobody mention the nukes.

 

[Caesar]

When the next election comes around, whether it's state (ie Victoria, NSW, Queensland) or federal, when we switch over to the ABC, one question will come to mind-'Where's Antony Green?' Election nights in Australia will never be the same again after Green's retirement last night.

as much as I like and respect Green, I am hopeful that with his departure we will see a big step up in the quality of the ABC's pre-election modelling

His election night model is amazing and a perfect tool for conservative, reliable deterministic modelling of expected outcomes. But there is a lot more that could be done in modelling probabilistic polling impacts in the leadup, particularly in analysis of demographic voting trends. See The Economist's US Presidential analysis from last year for an example of what is possible.

Rightly or wrongly, Green has never seen this as his role - he has always focused on reporting the results on the night. But I think in the modern electoral landscape it's a pretty glaring gap in the ABC's coverage that will hopefully be rectified by Briggs et al.

 

[Caesar]

Hard to argue against it though, immigrants vote labor.

Biggest density rises in Minns’ housing plan are in Liberal seats

The seven councils with the largest increases to their housing targets, in percentage terms, are predominantly located in Liberal-held electorates.

www.afr.com

I highly doubt it is about stacking votes in seats (that is too hard with how our boundary system works, and anyway it takes too long for immigrants to become eligible to vote)

If anything it is probably about not pissing off existing Labor constitutents, who are just as NIMBY as any other Australian

 

[QuietB]

From Pollbludger:



Yeah, postal votes broke 55-45 towards the LNP in 2022. 65-35 seems unsustainably high.

I thought the Jewish thing was overblown, especially because Tim Wilson isn't exactly Jewish, but maybe there's a little truth in it.

Dutton went hard for the Jewish vote the whole time - another of Dutton's mysterious strategies. No idea why - I doubt helping Tim Wilson was it

 

[Demonic Ascent]

If Climate 200 is only a small proportion of the Teals' total fundraising, I don't see the issue.

Because the perception peddled by the media and those opposing the Teals is that Climate 200 is the sole or overwhelming proportion of their funding.

It would be interesting to see the figures for some of the Teals so we can determine the truth.

Would be nice if the media scrutinised the funding of the major parties to the same extent they scrutinise the Teals funding.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Let's be pragmatic, until the Greens hold enough seats to from a voting block or hold key seats in Parliament, they have bugger all impact on Government except for advertising value

They do in the Senate

 

[Ticky009]

 

[schneebly111]

Great. Indonesia should be a far larger partner and ally with Australia than it is now. More so than the UK or the U.S.

 

[Saint]

I agree with all this too. But Coorey is practically the media centre for the Liberals. He's getting fed this line from the remaining moderate at the Libs, but it's unlikely to sway the zealots the moderates are lined up against.

Based on where the Libs are based, I guess we're going to get a lot of unpopular policies about relocating public servants to the bush and more dams and complaints about the state of roads with 100 vehicles a day in places nobody has ever heard of.

 

[Saint]

If Australia helped Indonesia to become a regional powerhouse, we'd be infinitely richer. Aus Govt should subsidise a merchant fleet exclusively between Australian and SEA ports around Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Great. Indonesia should be a far larger partner and ally with Australia than it is now. More so than the UK or the U.S.

Keating got it right, Australia is an Asian nation

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Yo, Peter Dutton. You didn't go right far enough! Why did you become a weak-hearted leftie communist?

Comment from Mrs. Gina Rinehart AO regarding the election results.

The left media did a very successful effort, frightening many in the Liberal Party from anything Trump and away from any Trump like policies

www.ginarinehart.com.au

 

[MadMundy]

I will say the one positive we can take from Trump's presidency so far is that it's lead to other countries essentially saying "No thanks we don't need more brain dead ****in morons ruining countries"

 

[Hank Scorpion]

This needs to kill "WOKE" as an attack line in this country too. All the billboards that Advance ran about "weak and woke," "woke and broke" just intensified the Trumpian/MAGA stink from the LNP camp.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

I just want to let everyone know I am still alive.

We'll need a photo holding up yesterdays Sunday Hun

 

[Caesar]

If Bandt goes down Sarah Hanson Young will be leader surely?

Her main issue will be factional backing, which historically she has lacked.

The Greens are very factionally divided, with the two major blocs historically being NSW/Qld and Vic/Tas.

• NSW/Qld Greens are (to generalise) quite hard left. NSW in particular is very red, and they often work together to oppose collaboration with either major party.
• Vic/Tas Greens are more moderate - they will work with ALP but not so much with the Coalition.

A lot of disagreements in the party come down to this conflict.

Historically the Vic/Tas bloc have controlled the party - first by sheer weight of numbers, later due to their ability to negotiate with both the SA Greens (the right wing) and the WA party (more left wing, but not as far left as NSW/Qld).

SHY needs the Vic/Tas faction to get elected - when she has run for deputy leader in the past, she lost to Vic/Tas candidates (Milne and then Bandt).

If Bandt is out and with the Queenslanders decimated, Nick McKim becomes the defacto leader of the Vic/Tas bloc and will probably be the kingmaker. But he probably can't get two southern Australians elected - I would expect at least one leadership position goes to a Queenslander or NSW senator.

Will he back SHY as his leadership candidate? I think it is unlikely. She is definitely a tough sell for the top job - the NSW Greens in particular would be very opposed to it.

Just my speculation.

 

[Percel]

He may just concede in a few hours ...

Has he conceded yet

 

[Mofra]

Has he conceded yet

He wasn't home Saturday night.
He's got a note in his mailbox to pick up the postal votes from his local post office. He might know the election results by next Monday.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Also missed Bendigo - Nats now 2nd in 2PP.
(And technically Calare, but looks like Gee has them covered)

Bendigo is a protest vote, they may end up losing this seat which will give shockwaves to Jacinta Allan which is why the vote has gone the way it has. It will be corrected at the next election if Allen is no longer premier nor the member for Bendigo IMO.