2025 Federal Election: A Pox o'....Just one of your houses, apparently.

[nobbyiscool]

Oh my God... Channel 9 and the Liberal party still working to push this bullshit crime narrative, with Battin's first major policy as Victorian Liberal leader being...

A change to bail laws.

They're never going to learn. They haven't got a clue how to win voters in Victoria. Their smear campaign on Melbourne failed 2 days ago, and they've already gone back to it.

 

[Caesar]

If Australia helped Indonesia to become a regional powerhouse, we'd be infinitely richer. Aus Govt should subsidise a merchant fleet exclusively between Australian and SEA ports around Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines.

Have you ever tried to do business in Indonesia

The country is an utter basketcase, worse than India

 

[Saint]

Have you ever tried to do business in Indonesia

The country is an utter basketcase, worse than India

I know people who do business there. Stands to reason there's a lot of opportunity then, if it's so stifled at the moment.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I will say the one positive we can take from Trump's presidency so far is that it's lead to other countries essentially saying "No thanks we don't need more brain dead ****in morons ruining countries"

Yep, a lot of people in a lot of countries are coming to that conclusion.

Pity Romania didn’t get the memo:

Far-right Trump ally secures decisive win in first round of Romaniaâs presidential election rerun

George Simion will face centrist Bucharest mayor NicuÈor Dan in runoff vote

www.theguardian.com

 

[Caesar]

I know people who do business there. Stands to reason there's a lot of opportunity then, if it's so stifled at the moment.

great let’s install a functional and non-corrupt government then

that never ends badly

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I just want to let everyone know I am still alive.

I have really appreciated your civil discourse.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

The seat of casey has been Liberal since 1984. When I checked it last night, it was one of the only seats with a further liberal swing. But this morning the Labor candidate is up by 262 votes, 50 percent of vote counted, going to go down to the wire. Pretty much all the advertising I saw out that way was for the liberals. Labor could have pushed harder I reckon.

Someone in here said they were in Corangamite? I went down that way recently and noticed a similar thing, pretty much all the advertising was for the Liberals. Labor retains it with a landslide though in the end.

Casey won't change until that class of cashed up bogans move out of the area. There children are now voting and have similar ideology. Lot of self employed tradies who hate unions, are right into the culture war stuff and want the good old days back. I have seen a plethora of social media posts from people I know who live in the electorate who can't believe the result on Saturday night. " Country has gone woke, how stupid is Australia etc" totally against the grain of other suburban electorates around Victoria. Alot of them think there smarter than everybody else too, arrogant and condescending against any argument not like theirs. Let them wallow in denial and delusional for as long as they like for all I care.

 

[pjcrows]

Gina Rinehart blaming lefty media and socialist brainwashing against Trump for Dutton's loss. Geez I hope the LibNats continue to be guided by her.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

ScoMo was such a turd.

Yeah he was all class, ol' ScoMo.

 

[Forward Press]

Scotty from marketing winning in 2019 might have been the poisoned chalice of election wins.

Libs/Nats won but it killed their moderates off, it killed the credibility and also reinforced that when shit hits fan, Labor is needed.

It also ensured ScoMo and the Libs were in power during COVID which gave them the delusion that WA wanted to be saved from border controls and wanted Clive Palmer in to sell his snake oil. They even saw fit to join Clive Palmer on his grossly unpopular legal action to prise open WA's borders in 2021. The Liberal Party quickly realised the error of their ways, but the damage was done and the 2021 State election saw them reduced to a rabble that could fit in a phone booth.

Combined with a moderate State ALP that governed effectively during crisis and in stable times, it has killed off the Liberal Party here for possibly a whole generation of voters.

The swing to the coalition was only in country areas where the live sheep ban was obviously controversial - everywhere else, the ALP managed to build upon their already monstrous swing in 2022. Half or more of WA's ten urban electorates always went blue since Hawke (eg Curtin, Moore, Stirling (now absorbed into Cowan and Moore), Tangney, Pearce) - now none of them are.

Thank you Morrison, Dutton, Palmer and Trump.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

Tim Wilson is back? Goldstein? More like Goldstink!

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Gina taking the loss well - NOT. Doubles down on Trump because why wouldn't she.

Lots of mentions of the 'left media' and how we are all doomed.

"Let's not forget, many of the returned government are parents too, do they really want to bring in ideological policies that will see the economy suffer and their children struggle?'"

Gina Rinehart's warning for Australia after federal election result

Mining magnate and philanthropist Gina Rinehart has responded to the results of the federal election with words of caution - and encouragement.

www.dailymail.co.uk

She doesn't even speak to her own children, why is she so worried about ours?

Also, and I stand to be corrected on this, but I wouldn't usually consider military juntas to be socialist in nature. Perhaps we just have different interpretations of socialism?

And it's not just the USA where this is happening, Argentina, a socialist country for more than a century, with its people suffering terribly.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Casey won't change until that class of cashed up bogans move out of the area. There children are now voting and have similar ideology. Lot of self employed tradies who hate unions, are right into the culture war stuff and want the good old days back. I have seen a plethora of social media posts from people I know who live in the electorate who can't believe the result on Saturday night. " Country has gone woke, how stupid is Australia etc" totally against the grain of other suburban electorates around Victoria. Alot of them think there smarter than everybody else too, arrogant and condescending against any argument not like theirs. Let them wallow in denial and delusional for as long as they like for all I care.

Theory - Casey is the outer suburb the liberals thought they all were like - when perhaps it is less diverse than the others (eg hawke)

 

[Demonic Ascent]

There's been a bunch of movement in Senate counting this morning, with quite a few changes since I last checked late Saturday night. Early voting has definitely galvanised support behind the major parties.

- The ALP are in the box seat to get 3 seats in NSW, with LNP getting 2 and the Greens 1.

- They'd also be favourites for 3 seats in Victoria, I can't see a preference flow that gets One Nation or Legalise Cannabis a quota before the ALP gets a third.

- Queensland will probably go 2-2-1, with One Nation favourites for the 6th spot on the back of KAP and Trumpet preferences.

- WA will be 2-2-1, with the 6th spot set to be a long, drawn out fight between ALP and One Nation that will go to the final few preference distributions I think.

- Tassie is super tight. ALP will definitely get 2. LNP will need a lot of preference help, but I'm fairly certain they'll get 2. The Greens have 1. The final spot is likely a toss-up between ALP and Lambie. I don't have a read on how that might go, this will also go deep into preference counts.

- ALP should comfortably pick up a third in in SA.

- NT is 1-1, while ACT is 1 ALP and 1 IND.

So for this election we're looking at 17 ALP, 13 LNP, 6 Green, 1 ON, 1 IND, and I still have the 6th seats in WA & Tas undecided.

The total Senate make up is likely to be:
ALP - 29 seats
LNP - 27 seats
Greens - 11 seats
ON - 2 seats
UAP - 1 seat
IND - 4 seats

+ 2 undecided in WA & Tas.

The magic number is 39 for a majority, which means those 2 undecided seats are probably less important than they seem - legislation is going to need agreement of the Greens or the LNP, as those two parties look as though they'd be able to vote together to reject any policy. And the ALP aren't going to work with Rennick, Van, Babet or Hanson on legislation anyway.

You'd have to think a strong ALP majority in the House beholden to the Greens in the Senate could make for some exciting progressive policy.

Either that or the ALP refuse to budge and then whinge about the obstructionist Greens.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Of course he's going to say that. That's all they ever say. "It wasn't my fault, it was that the other side lied a lot to win".

They're never going to say:

1. Our policies aren't good enough
2. Our team isn't very strong
3. We lack the grass-roots resources
4. The party is divided
5. We were behaving like Trump because it worked for them at election time, but turns out the policies are disastrous.
6. I'm unlikeable to the point that nobody even believes my wife when she says I'm not a monster.

All of which are significant factors, probably before the "we should have called them liars more".

Calling the ALP liars relentlessly worked well 12 years ago when a lot of people used to consume the news which amplified that message in commercial media. The ALP barely had a campaign platform this election, gave nothing for the LNP to attack.

Yep.

I also remember similar being said by many ALP candidates and sitting MOP after Shortens loss. But you really didn’t hear much made of that in here then.

 

[RICHOLEGEND12]

Casey won't change until that class of cashed up bogans move out of the area. There children are now voting and have similar ideology. Lot of self employed tradies who hate unions, are right into the culture war stuff and want the good old days back. I have seen a plethora of social media posts from people I know who live in the electorate who can't believe the result on Saturday night. " Country has gone woke, how stupid is Australia etc" totally against the grain of other suburban electorates around Victoria. Alot of them think there smarter than everybody else too, arrogant and condescending against any argument not like theirs. Let them wallow in denial and delusional for as long as they like for all I care.

Yeah I know what you mean. I know the area well, have family out there. It's funny, I was looking at the vote map the other day, for the 2022 election though. But it shows how each polling centre/town voted. And each town pretty much lined up exactly how I thought they would. It's a mix I reckon. Cashed up bogans. Not so cashed up bogans, -shooter fisher party types, very much anti-green which pushes them to liberal ( I say this as a bogan myself, but a left voting bogan). Then there is an element of quite wealthy people out there too, with valuable property.

There has been a swing against the liberals across the last few elections. There is a green element out there, in the bits of the electorate that are bush, but not the farming areas, or old farming areas nowadays. I really think labor understimated their chances out there. I know signage isn't everything. But all the advertising I saw was liberal. All the mail, liberal. And months before the election it was like that. There would be a lot of people out there who just vote for who or what they know.

 

[DaRick]

Yep.

I also remember similar being said by many ALP candidates and sitting MOP after Shortens loss. But you really didn’t hear much made of that in here then.

I think ALP voters were too busy expressing their sorrow.

I know, because I was one of them.

 

[DaRick]

Yep, a lot of people in a lot of countries are coming to that conclusion.

Pity Romania didn’t get the memo:

Far-right Trump ally secures decisive win in first round of Romaniaâs presidential election rerun

George Simion will face centrist Bucharest mayor NicuÈor Dan in runoff vote

www.theguardian.com

Romania gave the world Ceaucescu.

They're not historically adverse to authoritarians.

 

[RandB]

EAD Gina

 

[Gough]

I think ALP voters were too busy expressing their sorrow.

I know, because I was one of them.

The guts of a good government remained though. The Liberals have seen their future leaders progressively picked off in the last two elections.

 

[briztoon]

Bill Shorten taking his loss fair and square on the chin and agreeing to serve in Albanese's shadow cabinet also helped. Would have made it difficult for those disgruntled with Albanese to coalesce around another potential candidate

I am a swing voter, always have been. But everyone else in my family have been paid up ALP members for their entire lives. Even my wife joined the ALP the week she received citizenship (pretty sure it was the day after). So I have never been to a party meeting.

How much do the parties listen to their rank & file?

From what I heard, when the ALP first elected Shorten to be their new leader, that went against a lot of the local branches, as Albanese was most branches preferred leader (at least amongst QLD branches).

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Where will that opposition come from? And how long will it take to mobilise to a point of threatening to govern?

Regardless of your opinion of the LNP (or ALP for that matter) the nature of our parliamentary system needs both of them to be thriving (or at least competitive) to enable good scrutiny.

I don't know but it will happen. Politics abhors a vacuum even moreso than nature.

Regardless of what you or I may want, the LNP is not thriving and are unlikely to anytime soon. They have been overridden by religious fundies and people more focused on culture war garbage and punching down. They are co-opted by special interests (Minerals Council, Business Lobby etc) so are hamstrung on policy. There is no longer a vision for the country nor a strategy on how to get there.

They are stuffed and I hope their rancid ideology is wiped off the electoral map.

 

[dogs105]

Gina Rinehart blaming lefty media and socialist brainwashing against Trump for Dutton's loss. Geez I hope the LibNats continue to be guided by her.

I wish there was lefty media in Australia...

 

[DaRick]

I am a swing voter, always have been. But everyone else in my family have been paid up ALP members for their entire lives. Even my wife joined the ALP the week she received citizenship (pretty sure it was the day after). So I have never been to a party meeting.

How much do the parties listen to their rank & file?

From what I heard, when the ALP first elected Shorten to be their new leader, that went against a lot of the local branches, as Albanese was most branches preferred leader (at least amongst QLD branches).

From what I recall, Shorten was seen as a functionary who could stop the rot, win back some seats and lose honourably before being replaced by Albanese.

That whole idea went awry when Abbott imploded, and then Shorten practically wiped out Turnbull's majority by running a much tighter, more effective campaign ('Mediscare'). Then the ALP believed that Shorten could not only win the next election, but also sell big ideas. He couldn't.

 

[Ticky009]

Crikey are reporting Freshwater the poll company for LNPis responsible for LNP confidence going into the last few days. They got it wrong in 3 main areas.

• overestimated how many Labor voters would “defect” to the Coalition, “particularly those who voted No at the Voice referendum
• for all the noise about the preference flows being different in a way that would substantially benefit Coalition performance, it appears that the outcome simply did not materialise. The primary vote collapse for the Coalition was too much for any benefit from additional preference flows
• the late swing. Given that all pollsters seem to have underestimated the swing to Labor, and everyone’s fieldwork would have been over the earlier days in that week, it strongly suggests that there was a late swing among ‘soft’ or undecided voters in the final days that was very hard for pollsters to pick up.