2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[Jascave]

What would happen if Peter Dutton lost his seat of Dickson tonight? Who would be the new Liberal leader?

 

[DaRick]

What would happen if Peter Dutton lost his seat of Dickson tonight? Who would be the new Liberal leader?

Angus Taylor.

He's a doofus, but he's much more presentable than Dutton.

 

[Anzacpaul]

Someone please reassure me that potato Dutton isn't going to win.

Not sure I could mentally survive 4 years of Trump-lite here.

 

[pjcrows]

You're not understanding what I'm saying. Voting over there is not compulsory so by definition those who are voting are more engaged. I admit it's speculation, but if voting over here was voluntary, the Cookers in Australia would still be voting as they are actively engaged. If turnout in Aus was similar to the US, but the far right ON/PUP/FF/Libertarian/etc voter still showed up, would go from around 10% to 20%, just by half of potential voters staying home. Which already is getting close to Trumps percentage of Americans. Now add in a 'first past the post' system which eliminates minor parties and transfer them all to the Liberals, and then add on the rusted on Liberal Party vote who will turn up regardless on who is leading them, and you get prime minister Trump.

It has nothing to do with intelligence. It has everything to do with the system incentivising disingaged voters to participate, thereby lowering the AVERAGE voters engagement.

Correct.

 

[OzeSparky]

Tehan is in real trouble in Wannon. Any seats lost from Labor to Libs will be offset by losses to the Independents.

We are on the cusp of a historical election.

Be interesting to see what happens. Can the comedian Dyson beat Tehan.

 

[schneebly111]

Just to temper everyone’s expectations:

Shorten is the bookies' favourite as Scott Morrison tries to beat the odds

Bill Shorten had very short odds on Friday to become Australia's next PM, as both leaders took to the hustings in Sydney on the first full day of the campaign.

www.smh.com.au

The bookies are almost as confident of a Labor victory at next month's federal election.

Bill Shorten was paying $1.19 on Friday to become Australia's next prime minister….

Don’t get me wrong I hope it’s a Labor landslide but polls have overestimated Labor at the last 2 elections. Plus a higher ON vote.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I've cast my vote and got not just one, but TWO Democracy Sausages! My server of the sausage(s) was actually apologetic about putting the onion on the bottom. She reasoned that because they'd opted for the cheaparse Woolies microbread loaves the onions would outright refuse to sit atop the snag. She was right. The sides of the bread reached level with the sausage.

There was nothing to hold in the onions. Nothing!!!

 

[Handsuper47]

I'd caution against this, as you could easily get blindsided.

No, the average Australian voters is not more intelligent than the average American voter.

The average Australian voter is simply less engaged than the average American voter, which protects them from rabbit holes and bubbles that they could easily otherwise fall into if they were more engaged.

It's also worth mentioning that because of compulsory voting, you need to appeal to disengaged people too, which means the major parties can't get too excited, which means their 'base' doesn't get too excited either.

Don't confuse this for superior intelligence, is all.

This mostly goes along with how I've talked to people about politics, not only they are less engaged a lot of people can't even tell the difference between each part of parliament and the differences between each party.

 

[Gough]

I've cast my vote and got not just one, but TWO Democracy Sausages! My server of the sausage(s) was actually apologetic about putting the onion on the bottom. She reasoned that because they'd opted for the cheaparse Woolies microbread loaves the onions would outright refuse to sit atop the snag. She was right. The sides of the bread reached level with the sausage.

There was nothing to hold in the onions. Nothing!!!

No Dijon mustard at my booth but I feel that's a fairly niche criticism.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

No Dijon mustard at my booth but I feel that's a fairly niche criticism.

I had a choice of 'Murican mustard, dead horse and barbie sauce. Barbie sauce pairs better on the palate with fried onion and snag so I went with barbie.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Labor minority government incoming. My pred.

 

[OzeSparky]

I've cast my vote and got not just one, but TWO Democracy Sausages! My server of the sausage(s) was actually apologetic about putting the onion on the bottom. She reasoned that because they'd opted for the cheaparse Woolies microbread loaves the onions would outright refuse to sit atop the snag. She was right. The sides of the bread reached level with the sausage.

There was nothing to hold in the onions. Nothing!!!

Bloody Woolies.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

I predict a Greenslide

 

[Juddism]

ALP 83
OTH 13
LNP 54

Dickson to fall, nobody wants nuclear.

 

[Juddism]

Even better than I anticipated.

 

[Dazzler9]

4 seat majority to Labor, Dutton ousted from Dickson.

Am I closest to the hole??

 

[Proeagle]

Labor minority government incoming. My pred.

Sad result for the country. Expect the voice to be forced on us again. Another 2M+ immigrants/labor voters. Cost of living and housing crisis to be ignored again. Debt to blow out even more while we donate to Palestine and Ukraine. Libs really need to change something if they cant win against Albo who has been a disaster.

I see this is a labor thread though, so leave you all to it lol.

 

[schneebly111]

So time for my prediction, and I’ve gone through this seat by seat. I don’t like saying this but I think Labor’s chances have been way overstated. I think this is a lot closer than some of the headlines and polls predict.

NT
Both seats to fall to the LNP, Labor is not popular in the Territory and the anti crime messaging is hitting hard

QLD
Most QLD seats are very locked in but Labor could face a challenge in Blair but they should still hold it. I think the “Greenslide” is over with Ryan going back to LNP and Brisbane to the ALP.

NSW
People saying Labor will have trouble in Victoria but I think NSW will be their biggest problem. I think they picked up some semi rural seats in 2022 because of the fresh memories of floods and bushfires but they have faded now so the marginals of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson will return to the LNP. Parramatta, Reid, Werriwa and Hunter will be much closer and although I still have them going to the ALP I’m not going to be shocked if they go LNP. But I do think they’ll nab Bennelong due to a boundary change. A strong ON vote and greater and preferences to the LNP (something I think a lot of “analysts” are discounting) may help them in those marginals. Rural Calare and semi rural Mackellar to return to the LNP. Richmond will be an ALP hold despite a strong Green challenge.

Victoria.
I have them coming very close in Chisholm but it’ll be an ALP hold. Aston and McEwen to go to the LNP. Broadbent to lose to the LNP and one of Goldstein or Kooyong to return to the Libs (I’ll give them Kooyong)

Tasmania.
Bridget Archer will hold Bass but Lyons will be a Lib pickup.

SA.
No changes, I think the ALP will hold up well in Boothby but their primary is too low to pick up Sturt and even with Greens preferences they’ll fall short.

WA.
Bulwinkel is semi rural and a strong National and ON showing will pick it up for the LNP. They’ve selected a better candidate for Tangney so that should return to the fold. As a Curtin resident I think Chaney will lose, I’ve never seen so much LNP paraphernalia in my life and the feeling is it’s time for the seat to “go back to its true home”. WA has never been a fan of federal Labor and 2022 as an anomaly so expect a return to the norm.

So (and while this is going away from the norm) my predictions is:

ALP 69
LNP 72
Green 2
Independent/Other 8

For the ALP Wilkie and the Greens are their only guaranteed support.

Le and Katter to support LNP taking them to 73. The Coalition should then find 2 to guarantee supply. The rest of the independents all repent rural or wealthy inner city areas that were all previously LNP. They remember the fatal mistake of Oakeshott and Windsor in 2010.

The magic number for Labor is 71, or 72 if the Greens don’t win a QLD seat. Wilkie and Bandy should guarantee them supply, and then they could probably guarantee supply whereas the Coalition would have to deal with the whole crossbench.

I think the increased vote for ON, the increased preference flow of ON to LNP and a lot of traditional LNP seats returning to the fold without an unpopular incumbent PM to keep them away will make a difference. Added to the general over polling of the Labor primary at recent elections and the lack of marginal LNP seats for the ALP to gain vs a larger number of marginals for the ALP to gain.

Given my prediction it isn’t far for Labor to win, 3 more pickups for them and it’s 72-69 and they’ll have a much easier time of forming a minority government (albeit one which will be relentlessly hammered for 3 years as being dictated by “commie” Greens) but all up I think it’s very close.

It’s obvious from my posts I’m no fan of the Coalition but my gut is telling me they’re far closer than the current sentiment suggests. I really really hope I’m wrong however!

SO SO SO SO Glad I got this completely wrong!!!!

I was too haunted by past losses. The Aussie people really delivered tonight. The polls got it wrong - just in the opposite direction

 

[schneebly111]

Expect the voice to be forced on us again.

We can reconcile with our Indigeneous brothers

Another 2M+ immigrants/labor voters.

Great - migrants work harder, respect education and family and are more law abiding.

Cost of living and housing crisis to be ignored again.

Housing is a sore point for the ALP but with this win hopefully they make some alterations to make housing affordable. Labor making other real big wins in the cost of living.

Debt to blow out even more while we donate to Palestine and Ukraine.

Fantastic - Palestinians and Ukrainians are both suffering from evil regimes - they deserve our charity.

Libs really need to change something if they cant win against Albo who has been a disaster.

Their moderates have been wiped out - they will change, as Sky After Dark tells them they will go further right and align with One Nation

I see this is a labor thread though, so leave you all to it lol.

It is a Labor country now

 

[Jascave]

Apart from Anthony Albanese, the biggest winner of election night would be the ABC and the Guardian Australia. After what Peter Dutton said about them being ‘hate media’, it would be fair enough to say karma is a bitch,

 

[DaRick]

I think they are, too.

Get too close to the right-wing parties though, and you wind up alienating the centre.

I'd be amazed if that didn't happen this time, especially with someone like Dutton in charge.

 

[Freomaniac]

Apart from Anthony Albanese, the biggest winner of election night would be the ABC and the Guardian Australia. After what Peter Dutton said about them being ‘hate media’, it would be fair enough to say karma is a bitch,

In a different scenario, Peter Dutton has similar traits and behaviour like a dictator.

Free speech is there for a reason. I just find it funny that some people want ABC to be having funds reduced.

But ironically ABC isn't biased and has a neutral view.

Sky News on the other hand, well that is obvious . They don't hide the fact of siding with right wing parties like the liberals and one nation and Clive Palmer and trumpet of the patriots

 

[JackFlash]

It was a very predictable result, i've been saying for weeks Dutton had no chance and it wouldn't even be close. He ran a terrible campaign and sadly that has happened, we now have 3 more years of idiocy at the helm of what was a great country. At least the Greens copped a toweling, but who in their right mind voted for the Teals? Mental illness is a huge problem in Australia. We're in for a very tough time in the next few years!

 

[masai tu]

In a different scenario, Peter Dutton has similar traits and behaviour like a dictator.

Free speech is there for a reason. I just find it funny that some people want ABC to be having funds reduced.

But ironically ABC isn't biased and has a neutral view.

Sky News on the other hand, well that is obvious . They don't hide the fact of siding with right wing parties like the liberals and one nation and Clive Palmer and trumpet of the patriots

Interesting to note that on Election Night, the majority of people tuned into the ABC for their election broadcast. Seems to me that the masses have voted for the ABC.

 

[Saint]

I think the error I made in my prediction was that the LNP couldn't turn more people off. I underestimated how much Queenslanders had room to turn against them.

Meanwhile, the ACL, Advance Australia and others spent all their time attacking the Teals and Greens and nobody laid a glove on the ALP.
The ALP seem to me to be now a distinct Centrist Party. And the LNP are clearly conservative but not centrist any more.
Any attack on the Greens or Indies moves people back to the only centrist party.