2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[nut]

I think the error I made in my prediction was that the LNP couldn't turn more people off. I underestimated how much Queenslanders had room to turn against them.

Meanwhile, the ACL, Advance Australia and others spent all their time attacking the Teals and Greens and nobody laid a glove on the ALP.
The ALP seem to me to be now a distinct Centrist Party. And the LNP are clearly conservative but not centrist any more.
Any attack on the Greens or Indies moves people back to the only centrist party.

Exactly

 

[DaRick]

I think the error I made in my prediction was that the LNP couldn't turn more people off. I underestimated how much Queenslanders had room to turn against them.

Meanwhile, the ACL, Advance Australia and others spent all their time attacking the Teals and Greens and nobody laid a glove on the ALP.
The ALP seem to me to be now a distinct Centrist Party. And the LNP are clearly conservative but not centrist any more.
Any attack on the Greens or Indies moves people back to the only centrist party.

As did I, actually.

Dutton is a Queenslander, which I thought might help him despite his polarising reputation up here. I thought that only inner-city Brisbane truly disliked him.

I forgot that Petrie voted for Gillard (and therefore lies in-between Lilley and Dickson politically), didn't consider just how many people Dutton had annoyed in Dickson with some of his recent behaviour, and didn't know that Chinese-Australians (who are not fond of Dutton) had a significant presence in Bonner (thanks for that insight briztoon).

 

[Saint]

I think it was Christopher Pyne who made the point on the commercial coverage on Saturday night that the Liberals were supposed to one-by-one add groups of people to their broad church.

Whereas this Liberal campaign went about one-by-one ostracising people from the broad church. Immigrants, Muslims, Government workers, WFH people, nurses and teachers.

The party has moved from inner city, with the stated target of suburban seats and only ended up with a miserable few peri-urban seats, could barely hit the suburbs at all.

Big picture, they should have perhaps not abandoned the inner-city so much before they shored up the outer suburban seats. (though it does look like Amelia Hamer might get over the line, so they might have one MP within driving distance of a capital city).

 

[briztoon]

I haven’t really seen anyone mention climate in these discussions.

I believe this may have played a significant role as well. Especially up here in QLD where we’ve been coping unusually heavy rains for the last few summers.

We’re not in a flood zone, but quite a few properties experienced localised flooding due to broken non council storm drains. And we lost power for 3 days as the underground electricity junctions flooded.

Added to this the amount of properties in our area that have solar, and the ALP offering a 30% discount on solar batteries. Even if it’s a break even proposition now, a lot of our neighbours will be getting batteries (as well as us).

 

[DaRick]

I haven’t really seen anyone mention climate in these discussions.

I believe this may have played a significant role as well. Especially up here in QLD where we’ve been coping unusually heavy rains for the last few summers.

We’re not in a flood zone, but quite a few properties experienced localised flooding due to broken non council storm drains. And we lost power for 3 days as the underground electricity junctions flooded.

Added to this the amount of properties in our area that have solar, and the ALP offering a 30% discount on solar batteries. Even if it’s a break even proposition now, a lot of our neighbours will be getting batteries (as well as us).

Don't forget ex-cyclones making landfall near Brisbane (which has never happened before to my knowledge, not even in 1974 or 1990).

We got lucky that time, but a repeat could be disastrous, because Brisbane homes aren't built to withstand them.