Strategy 2025 Flex Spot Discussion & Strategy

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[toxic]

I'm not going to say I was threatened, if I didn't re-open the thread .....but certain accusations were made

Weak aa piss

Lock this bloody thread.

Reopen after Rd0

 

[kyri]

My view is that towards the end of the season when my team is super-premo..

I stopped reading here.

 

[Ingy]

I stopped reading here.

It happened, once upon a time.

But yeah prolly science fiction haha

 

[Saints4ever]

1 interesting thing to think about with Flex is the trading of injured premos that could miss 3-4 weeks.

Do we now hold injured players for longer due to the flex covering.

 

[Sherman41]

WaynesWorld19

 

[WaynesWorld19]

WaynesWorld19
View attachment 2225769

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Anyone else thinking of starting a Donut Rookie to maximize the Flex?

 

[Test Tickle]

Anyone else thinking of starting a Donut Rookie to maximize the Flex?

 

[A Bit Dusty]

OK Hear me out.
Currently have Maric,Allan & Hewitt & All play Sunday games early on in the season.
If say Berry/Davidson Tons up on the Saturday I can swap any one of Maric,Allan & Hewitt around and also Worst case move Hall or a Rookie defender to the Flex position.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

OK Hear me out.
Currently have Maric,Allan & Hewitt & All play Sunday games early on in the season.
If say Berry/Davidson Tons up on the Saturday I can swap any one of Maric,Allan & Hewitt around and also Worst case move Hall or a Rookie defender to the Flex position.

View attachment 2226310

I brought in a M/F donut a few ago in round one to get Guldens score when he went huge on debut. Got me the points but I think the extra cash gen would have been better over the season.

 

[Nelso]

I brought in a M/F donut a few ago in round one to get Guldens score when he went huge on debut. Got me the points but I think the extra cash gen would have been better over the season.

A lot of points chasing in round one because you always think that you are immediately behind the pack to start off with.

But in hindsight you can always make up much more ground at the end of the season when people have run out of trades by round 20.

Need to play the long game but what I would know as I am always the one doing the point chasing

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

A lot of points chasing in round one because you always think that you are immediately behind the pack to start off with.

But in hindsight you can always make up much more ground at the end of the season when people have run out of trades by round 20.

Need to play the long game but what I would know as I am always the one doing the point chasing

Yes being disciplined in the early rounds can pay dividends later.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Yes being disciplined in the early rounds can pay dividends later.

Attention Judd_Magic

 

[Sherman41]

Yes being disciplined in the early rounds can pay dividends later.

Worked for me last year. I was always a premo or so behind most of the crew on here early days. Held my nerve, let the cows moo and came home strong.

20k at round 12
10k at round 16
Finished 1.7k

 

[MacStradbroke]

I brought in a M/F donut a few ago in round one to get Guldens score when he went huge on debut. Got me the points but I think the extra cash gen would have been better over the season.

Free loops in rounds 2, 3 & 4 this year too.

 

[toxic]

 

[Deliverance]

Like them all as picks, but the early bye is annoying.

Not sure what to make of the early byes this season. If you cop a donut in rucks, flex will cover it I believe, so you still get 22 scores that week (of which 18 will count). Others will get 23 scores, so 5 lowest will drop. It's not that much of an advantage. Maybe flex makes the early byes less annoying. Food for thought anyway...

Your 18th lowest score will usually be about 60 points early on. If you have a premo out during the bye, your 19th score becomes your 18th. So, it's your 19th score vs someone else's premo (if they have no players out with a bye). So, you're down about 50-60 points for every extra OR player you carry.

 

[4tune8]

Your 18th lowest score will usually be about 60 points early on. If you have a premo out during the bye, your 19th score becomes your 18th. So, it's your 19th score vs someone else's premo (if they have no players out with a bye). So, you're down about 50-60 points for every extra OR player you carry.

I've been trying to get my head around the points loss for running a premo that has an early bye.

I've got 5 rookie priced players on field, if I add a round 0 premo then I'll have to take the best score of those rookies as his replacement, if I have 2 premos missing then I'll have to take the 2 best rookie scores and so on.

Last years rookie scores.

Round 1: 104-96-88
Round 2: 109-107-99
Round 3: 98-88-86

You may not have had all of those in the team (or on the ground), but most of those scores came from popular picks, like Darcy, Sanders, McKercher, Dempsey and Roberts. This years rookie crop might not have the scoring power of last years crop, so past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

On last years figures the points hit could be minimal, say 10-20.

I don't think many, if any of the rookies this year have the ability to pump out scores like that, so I'm aiming to have 3-4 on field and replacing a missing premo with a MP score.

 

[Sherman41]

Your 18th lowest score will usually be about 60 points early on. If you have a premo out during the bye, your 19th score becomes your 18th. So, it's your 19th score vs someone else's premo (if they have no players out with a bye). So, you're down about 50-60 points for every extra OR player you carry.

This could be correct.

Other way to look at it is, you catch up those points outside their bye in other weeks, so you don’t really lose any at all.

 

[Deliverance]

This could be correct.

Other way to look at it is, you catch up those points outside their bye in other weeks, so you don’t really lose any at all.

Not really, plenty of players have the bye in OR and don't lose any points because that's a non supercoach round. Look, there's a lot of variables, but in its simplest form if you and I pick indentical teams except one player. Hypothetically I pick Serong and you pick Merrett. Both continue to average 115. In round 4 Serong gets me 115, Merret has his bye and is replaced by a rookie who scores 60. You're down by 55 points, which you can't catch up because both Serong and Merret have 1 bye remaining for the season. Of course if your 19th best player scores 115, happy days.

 

[54Dogs]

I've been trying to get my head around the points loss for running a premo that has an early bye.

I've got 5 rookie priced players on field, if I add a round 0 premo then I'll have to take the best score of those rookies as his replacement, if I have 2 premos missing then I'll have to take the 2 best rookie scores and so on.

Last years rookie scores.

Round 1: 104-96-88
Round 2: 109-107-99
Round 3: 98-88-86

You may not have had all of those in the team (or on the ground), but most of those scores came from popular picks, like Darcy, Sanders, McKercher, Dempsey and Roberts. This years rookie crop might not have the scoring power of last years crop, so past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

On last years figures the points hit could be minimal, say 10-20.

I don't think many, if any of the rookies this year have the ability to pump out scores like that, so I'm aiming to have 3-4 on field and replacing a missing premo with a MP score.

Jaiden P did some work last yr on this, it's for fantasy but broadly translates to SC

 

[54Dogs]

So say Brayshaw (no early bye) vs Green (early bye) if your Green replacement scores 60 then he is costing you 50 pts over Brayshaw if they went say 110. Essentially the question is whether Green will improve his average by 2-3 ppg more than Brayshaw over the season to cover that 50 points.

Obvs highly simplified and excludes a bunch of other factors (other bye players etc) but from a value perspective it's the main question.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

So say Brayshaw (no early bye) vs Green (early bye) if your Green replacement scores 60 then he is costing you 50 pts over Brayshaw if they went say 110. Essentially the question is whether Green will improve his average by 2-3 ppg more than Brayshaw over the season to cover that 50 points.

Obvs highly simplified and excludes a bunch of other factors (other bye players etc) but from a value perspective it's the main question.

It's difficult to say really. The fact that it's best 18 is the key as you only need a couple of rookies to have a big week and you're not down many points. If any.

 

[4tune8]

Jaiden P did some work last yr on this, it's for fantasy but broadly translates to SC

View attachment 2226662

That's interesting.

Guess the key then is to change that curve so that the 19th & 20th players scores are higher than the average (if there are players missing)

To get those higher scores obviously means investing more cash but to do that means a lower output from the top end leading to an overall score that's similar to one without those adjustments.

This is where value picks show their worth, providing you nail them. Maintain a relatively high output from the top end and mid tiers but increase the scoring power of the bottom end for a net result that outperforms the average.

 

[4tune8]

So say Brayshaw (no early bye) vs Green (early bye) if your Green replacement scores 60 then he is costing you 50 pts over Brayshaw if they went say 110. Essentially the question is whether Green will improve his average by 2-3 ppg more than Brayshaw over the season to cover that 50 points.

Obvs highly simplified and excludes a bunch of other factors (other bye players etc) but from a value perspective it's the main question.

The value plays certainly make up for their loss of points especially when you consider projections (reasonable ones) I'm starting Green with the expectation that he'll go around 115, if it's more than that then great.

I like to compare a value play to a player that's fairly priced and is projected for similar output, in Green's case (I'm starting him) he's compared with Serong who's priced at 115 which is around what I'd expect him to deliver over the whole season.

I don't really expect to make up the loss of points throughout the year, whatever those points may be, Serong might have a shocker in round 2 and Green's replacement might outscore him.

Where I do expect to make up points is by the wise use of the $50k saving, theoretically 10PPG which obviously cover a 50pt loss by round 5.