Oppo Camp 2025 Hawks Death Ride

[squashface]

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Best we can hope for now is hawks finish 8th and get knocked out first week, but I dont think we will be that lucky.

All the favourites win and it’ll be a home game from 8th.

Ah to be kissed on the dick that much.

Pies with and without Howe are an alarmingly different team (14-2 with, 1-5 without). KO’d 50 seconds into their last meeting, who knows how he influences things but looks like a tough one to tip against the Hawks in at this stage.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Carlton winning tonight jumps them above the Saints. Only way they move down is if the Saints beat GWS in Sydney. With all that being said and done and we got pick 2 for Oz leaving, Essendon potentially getting a gross first rounder if Draper leaves and Brisbane jump over everyone for Annable, that'll push the Hawks pick out to like 11?

Not quite the doom and gloom top 5 pick for the Hawks that everyone on here was having a stroke over. I didn't include the Suns Academy pick since there's been talk of us splitting pick 2 for it...this is just an assumption on my end.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Carlton winning tonight jumps them above the Saints. Only way they move down is if the Saints beat GWS in Sydney. With all that being said and done and we got pick 2 for Oz leaving, Essendon potentially getting a gross first rounder if Draper leaves and Brisbane jump over everyone for Annable, that'll push the Hawks pick out to like 11?

Not quite the doom and gloom top 5 pick for the Hawks that everyone on here was having a stroke over. I didn't include the Suns Academy pick since there's been talk of us splitting pick 2 for it...this is just an assumption on my end.

Given the Allen compo a) benefits us and b) pushes the rest of the picks down, and the truly elite academy kids are never on the table anyway, beat to just ignore the whole thing and go old school ladder.

Carlton likely finish with Pick 8, which now belongs to the Hawks. Pick 9 once our compo comes in etc etc.

Hawks pick still ranging anywhere from 11-18.

Best case scenario from here is they’re three picks apart on the ladder. About what most people presumed, in whichever direction they preferred at the time.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

First curveball of the weekend goes to the Gold campaigners.

If favourites win out, we’re looking at the below. Freo miss on % regardless, but that Suns/Hawks % is tantalisingly close.



Hawks beat Brisbane and they’ll likely play Geelong at the G in a 2/3 QF. Lose and it’s a trip to the livestock to take on GWS, or hosting Bulldogs as the lower ranked side.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

I'ma be honest. If/When we get pick 2 as Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

26

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

compo the whole death ride for the Hawks goes in the bin for me. Getting pick 2 for a bloke that's hardly been sighted for two years, a degenerative knee at the age of 26 and couldn't even get through training during the week is a massive win for us.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

I'ma be honest. If/When we get pick 2 as Oscar Allen compo the whole death ride for the Hawks goes in the bin for me. Getting pick 2 for a bloke that's hardly been sighted for two years, a degenerative knee at the age of 26 and couldn't even get through training during the week is a massive win for us.

Something not many of we Eagles fans know currently is that you are allowed more than one win at the same time, though.

 

[ukurrie]

What’s the best case scenario for this thread? I guess we want free-kick Hawthorn to travel to Freo or the Giants?

I don’t think there is a scenario in which they travel to GC.

 

[Cuzz09]

I am 100% mindset of a Hawthorn win today.

Anything else happens its a good day

Dogs v freo couldn't really care but feeling freo may knock em off

GC will beat Ess by 100

 

[new breed]

Twin loss is best , like two games in a row .

 

[Cuzz09]

Twin loss is best , like two games in a row .

huh

 

[new breed]

huh

Lose Rd 24 / Elimination final

 

[ukurrie]

Lose Rd 24 / Elimination final

Well. Yes. But I was curious what match up, and therefore what set of results today, gives us that chance.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Well. Yes. But I was curious what match up, and therefore what set of results today, gives us that chance.

Big caveat to open: To tie with Gold Coast requires a GC win and a Hawks loss, so percentage will be interesting. Currently it’s GC 120.1, Hawthorn 122.7. We’ll know more about what GC would need to do to jump them on percentage but they’re playing Essendon so let’s say they get there.

Hawks win and they’re third or fourth regardless of what happens in the other games. Dogs/Freo doesn’t impact Hawthorn’s finishing position but could impact their EF opponent.

	GWS	GC	Result
HAW win	Win	Win	Hawks likely 3rd, possible 4th (% dependant)
HAW lose	Win	Win	Hawks 8th, away @ GWS
HAW lose	Win	Lose	Hawks 7th, away @ winner of WB/FRE
HAW lose	Lose	Lose	Hawks 6th, host GWS
HAW lose	Lose	Win	Hawks 7th, away @ GC

 

[ukurrie]

I knew you’d see the Bat Signal in the sky. Thanks Badge-Man.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

bump

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Do we want GC to win and send Hawthorn to 8th and a match up with GWS, or to lose and play vs Freo?
It will be easy to decide who to back in the first scenario, and if they lose their picks will be as low as it can be.
For the second scenario, I wouldn't want to be keen with either result...

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Do we want GC to win and send Hawthorn to 8th and a match up with GWS, or to lose and play vs Freo?
It will be easy to decide who to back in the first scenario, and if they lose their picks will be as low as it can be.
For the second scenario, I wouldn't want to be keen with either result...
View attachment 2406121

GWS vs HAW the best of a not great set of scenarios.

Lose from 8th and the Carlton/Hawks picks are three picks apart. Have to back that in.

 

[Elite Pete]

If Brissy lose this it’s offical someone has put a curse on the Eagles.

Should be game over a long time ago.

 

[PremiershipNo4]

Such a shame for Hawforn

 

[UseR2006]

 

[UseR2006]

So it'll end up either of these two depending how wednesdays game goes.

HAW lose	Win	Win	Hawks 8th, away @ GWS (GC win by 30 or more)
HAW lose	Win	Lose	Hawks 7th, away @ FRE (or GC only win by 20 or less)

 

[kerrazy]

Hawks board complaining about the umpiring. Thats rich.

 

[ukurrie]

GWS vs HAW the best of a not great set of scenarios.

Lose from 8th and the Carlton/Hawks picks are three picks apart. Have to back that in.

I feel more confident that Freo beat them than the Giants though

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

After watching the season and seeing the Dawks exposed as frauds (as expected) it's any wonder ur mob backed us in over them.

Unfortunately we had a disastrous season that not many could have predicted with key players going down, cheating scandals within the playing group, off field turmoil with the Prez, the TDK clownshow etc.

3 picks difference aint too bad in the grand scheme of things though if they get flogged rd 1 of finals.

 

[amazingjoshy]

10 months, over 1500 posts and an undetermined amount of angst, and there might () end up only being 3 spots between our choices

BF at its finest