2025 Ladder Predictions

[Fadge]

I feel a shit coming on sometimes but it only ends up being a fart

You're lucky.

I regularly do the opposite.

 

[Fadge]

It's when the opposite happens that you find yourself in real trouble.

Beat me to it....

 

[Fadge]

A team can win 100 gf's in a row, yet theyre still no more or less likely to win it the next season.

Um, yes they are.

We're talking about the roll of a dice.

 

[Fadge]

A team will never win 100 GF’s in the row due to our highly flawed equalisation system. Chances are not equal for each of the 18 teams every year as it’s not a coin flip.

There are too many factors in footy to know what causes this phenomenon but long repeating patterns can’t be ignored till factors change and it stops occurring.

Putting Freo & the Pies up there as the most likely is just following some of those factors and the odds reflect this.

Yep.

It's the evenness of the competition nowadays that results in this phenomenon.

Not since we had the superteams of the late 2000's/early 2010's have we not seen mass changes in the top 4.

2009 - St. Kilda, Geelong, Doggies, Pies
2010 - Pies, St. Kilda, Geelong, Doggies

 

[thistimeforsure]

You're mixing possibility with probability. It's highly possible, but probability does not exist in footy ever, it ain't a mathematical equation - every year for every team is a singularity. A team can win 100 gf's in a row, yet theyre still no more or less likely to win it the next season.

If you trust history so much then crunch the numbers of the exact position the above teams finished in the previous season to determine your favorites tier list for this season, instead of just automatically putting Freo top.

Now I don't for a second believe the exact ladder position would make a difference, just as much as the pattern itself having any substantial merit. But if that's what your basing it on, then crunch it right down and find out exactly who is most probable to make it into the 4

Lol , are you keen on joining our monthly poker night


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[Fadge]

Lol , are you keen on joining our monthly poker night

Apparently, Brisbane are no more likely to win the 2025 premiership than Richmond...

 

[thistimeforsure]

Apparently, Brisbane are no more likely to win the [emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji638][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]] premiership than Richmond...

Haha I’ve seen some stupid shit on here but honestly that’s right up there


On iPad using [emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji637][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[zyzzbruh]

Apparently, Brisbane are no more likely to win the 2025 premiership than Richmond...

And how likely were Hawthorn to win the premiership than Collingwood last season?

Weird things happen hence why random teams can make top 4.

 

[Purple Suit]

And how likely were Hawthorn to win the premiership than Collingwood last season?

Weird things happen hence why random teams can make top 4.

Like teams from the bottom 10 the previous year?

 

[Madas]

The only thing I know for certain is that Freo will finish 13th and Hawks 14th. Don't need to time travel to figure that one out but I did anyway and was proven correct. Congrats Geelong, and the curse continues for the swans.

I get why people want to hype the Hawks, but they're not that good yet.

Freo on the other hand... I don't get it. The most dour side and a pretty uninspiring list that somehow everyone thinks is all of a sudden primed. Nothing has changed except for bringing in the flakiest player in the comp.

Yet Freo beat your lot on your home turf which then paved the way for one of the greatest GF chokes of all time

 

[Fadge]

And how likely were Hawthorn to win the premiership than Collingwood last season?

Weird things happen hence why random teams can make top 4.

Indeed...

'Weird things can happen', but it still doesn't make them as 'probable' as each other.

Do you honestly think Richmond are as likely to win the premiership as Brisbane (or any of the other top 10 rated teams for that matter) in 2025?

 

[zyzzbruh]

Like teams from the bottom 10 the previous year?

Yeah but it's also not a guarantee. You're all stating a bottom 8 team will make the top 4 for a fact and trying to work out who it will be like it's a guarantee.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Indeed...

'Weird things can happen', but it still doesn't make them as 'probable' as each other.

Do you honestly think Richmond are as likely to win the premiership as Brisbane (or any of the other top 10 rated teams for that matter) in 2025?

My whole point is anything can happen but yes of course there are scenarios that are more probable than others. The most probable scenario based on most recent form is that the same top 4 will again finish top 4 (because that's all we have to base team performance on), whilst freo supporters are guaranteeing a team in the bottom 8 will make the top 4 just because it's happened a few years in succession. There is 0 evidence to suggest it will happen again because that is not based on empirical team evidence, even if it occurred 100 years in a row - it is just a theoretical anomaly that just so happened to have occurred a few years in succession.

It's even made it's way into media circles. Kingy was saying a team in the 4 has to make room for a team in bottom 8 because that's just what happens. Load of crock.

 

[The Lobbster]

My whole point is anything can happen but yes of course there are scenarios that are more probable than others. The most probable scenario based on most recent form is that the same top 4 will again finish top 4 (because that's all we have to base team performance on), whilst freo supporters are guaranteeing a team in the bottom 8 will make the top 4 just because it's happened a few years in succession. There is 0 evidence to suggest it will happen again because that is not based on empirical team evidence, even if it occurred 100 years in a row - it is just a theoretical anomaly that just so happened to have occurred a few years in succession.

It's even made it's way into media circles. Kingy was saying a team in the 4 has to make room for a team in bottom 8 because that's just what happens. Load of crock.

I mean you’re arguing both sides here.

You’re using historical data (last year) to predict this year. A team made the top four last year which indicates they’re good so they’ll probably be good again.

But you’re also arguing against using historical data that shows in general a bottom ten team moves into the top four.

All AFL predictions are done with intangibles. How much does a young team improve, an old team decline, a new player improve the team etc. I don’t think anyone is guaranteeing anything (except you who are guaranteeing the Hawks and Dockers missing finals). They’re just using trends to try and improve their predictions from a blind guess to an educated guess

 

[zyzzbruh]

I mean you’re arguing both sides here.

You’re using historical data (last year) to predict this year. A team made the top four last year which indicates they’re good so they’ll probably be good again.

But you’re also arguing against using historical data that shows in general a bottom ten team moves into the top four.

All AFL predictions are done with intangibles. How much does a young team improve, an old team decline, a new player improve the team etc. I don’t think anyone is guaranteeing anything (except you who are guaranteeing the Hawks and Dockers missing finals). They’re just using trends to try and improve their predictions from a blind guess to an educated guess

Those things you listed are the most tangible pieces of evidence you can possibly have when it comes to footy, the lists exist, they're real and you can judge them. Historical statistics are completely intangible and useless. Plus a team who does jump on the ladder ultimately does so because of those tangible measures, but it does not mean a team in the bottom 8 will fit that bill every year just because it is a common occurrence. A new season is completely independent, history does not exist. Just like how if Freo make a GF you can't predict the result based on their last GF result. It's a pointless stat.

 

[Fadge]

Those things you listed are the most tangible pieces of evidence you can possibly have when it comes to footy, the lists exist, they're real and you can judge them. Historical statistics are completely intangible and useless. Plus a team who does jump on the ladder ultimately does so because of those tangible measures, but it does not mean a team in the bottom 8 will fit that bill every year just because it is a common occurence.

What odds would you offer about at least one team who finished outside the top 8 in 2024, making the leap to finishing inside the top 4 in 2025?

 

[zyzzbruh]

What odds would you offer about at least one team who finished outside the top 8 in 2024, making the leap to finishing inside the top 4 in 2025?

I'd offer you 1:6 generally. But of course that all depends on the makeup of those teams. Collingwood increase the odds this year imo.

If collingwood didn't seem a real threat and were on the same tier as the other teams in question, i.e freo, then i'd offer you 1:8.

 

[Fadge]

I'd offer you 1:6 generally. But of course that all depends on the makeup of those teams. Collingwood increase the odds this year imo.

If collingwood didn't seem a real threat and were on the same tier as the other teams in question, i.e freo, then i'd offer you 1:8.

Are you saying you'd offer the equivalent of $6 with the Pies in the mix, and $8 if they weren't?

For an event that has happened every year for the past 10 + years?

 

[zyzzbruh]

Are you saying you'd offer the equivalent of $6 with the Pies in the mix, and $8 if they weren't?

For an event that has happened every year for the past 10 + years?

Yes

And over 100 years i'd be pretty confident the numbers would balance out to there abouts. It doesn't matter how many times in a row it happens, there is not some sort of divine statistical force that significantly increases the odd of a bottom 8 team finishing in the top 4. It's purely based on an individual lesser team improving significantly based on tangible evidence, not historical data.

I've seen red pop up 13 time sin a row on a roulette table, the chance of it coming up again the 14th time is still 1:1, it doesn't magically become 13:1. Previous season historical data/patterns doesn't all of a sudden increase the chances of freo finishing top 4 purely based on numbers. Only Freo can increase their chance of finishing top 4.

With that logic, any team that find themselves in the bottom 8 would automatically have their odds raised the next year.

 

[The Feeder Club]

I'd offer you 1:6 generally. But of course that all depends on the makeup of those teams. Collingwood increase the odds this year imo.

If collingwood didn't seem a real threat and were on the same tier as the other teams in question, i.e freo, then i'd offer you 1:8.

Asking for a friend, could you direct him to the name of the corporate bookmaker where you set the odds?

 

[zyzzbruh]

Are you saying you'd offer the equivalent of $6 with the Pies in the mix, and $8 if they weren't?

For an event that has happened every year for the past 10 + years?

And of course it's going to vary year to year. Last year i predicted Geelong would make the 4 based on the tangible evidence at hand for various reasons, so my offer to you would've been much less.

I'd understand if people were building a case on why they think teams will improve based on the teams themselves, but the suggestion some people are making is that a team will finish top 4 just because, it's just bound to happen, numbers. And therefore that automatically increases the odds.

 

[Fadge]

With that logic, any team that find themselves in the bottom 8 would automatically have their odds raised the next year.

A. It's the bottom 10, not the bottom 8.
B. We're saying 'at least 1 team' from the bottom 10 in a given year will likely make the top 4 the following year. That still means 'up to 3 teams' from the top 8 in a given year make the top 4 the following year.
C. The competition is more even now than it has ever been. Any of 15 teams can realistically make the finals; Any of about a dozen of them could realistically make the top 4.

 

[Fadge]

And of course it's going to vary year to year. Last year i predicted Geelong would make the 4 based on the tangible evidence at hand for various reasons, so my offer to you would've been much less.

I'd understand if people were building a case on why they think teams will improve based on the teams themselves, but the suggestion some people are making is that a team will finish top 4 just because, it's just bound to happen, numbers. And therefore that automatically increases the odds.

People aren't saying it because 'numbers', they're saying it because the competition is more even now than it ever has been.

We haven't had a reigning premier win a single final the following year since Richmond's flag team in 2019 winning again in 2020.

 

[zyzzbruh]

People aren't saying it because 'numbers', they're saying it because the competition is more even now than it ever has been.

We haven't had a reigning premier win a single final the following year since Richmond's flag team in 2019 winning again in 2020.

I've seen multiples of people suggest it'll happen just because it's been happening.

Other than that i agree the possibility is there especially in the most even of seasons we've seen recently. But it ain't going to happen just because it's happened the last 10 years. That's not what increases the odds of it occurring.

 

[Fadge]

I've seen multiples of people suggest it'll happen just because it's been happening.

Other than that i agree the possibility is there especially in the most even of seasons we've seen recently. But it ain't going to happen just because it's happened the last 10 years. That's not what increases the odds of it occurring.

No.... it's happened the last 10 seasons because that's the nature of an equalised competition.

You have your chicken and your egg in the wrong order.