2025 Ladder Predictions

[Fadge]

Collingwood
Geelong
Hawthorn
Brisbane
Fremantle
Sydney
GWS
Adelaide

Gold Coast
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
St Kilda
North Melbourne
Carlton
Essendon
West Coast
Melbourne
Richmond

 

[Worm4]

Collingwood
Geelong
Hawthorn
Brisbane
Fremantle
Sydney
GWS
Adelaide

Gold Coast
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
St Kilda
North Melbourne
Carlton
Essendon
West Coast
Melbourne
Richmond

14th now is it ? It was 17th a few weeks ago - maybe the list improved since your last post

 

[JustaBattler]

A lot of drivel without saying anything.

But are you saying that it is not more 'probable' for Brisbane to win the flag than any other team in the competition? For example, Richmond?

Opinions are based on data, and betting markets are based on these opinions.

Otherwise, how do YOU assess the relative 'probabilities' of each team winning the flag?

Ive just politely told you (again) that there is a difference between 'opnion' and probability ...

Betting markets are based on making a risk free profit on VAR - simple as that. Punters can come to their opnion by whatever means they choose to - oija boards, abacuses, spreadsheets and hope...whatever flloats their boat. they can even parade their opnion as derived from 'data' - and use whatever nonsense they choose to imbue thier ignorant postings with a form of slef madfe cheap gravitas - punteres are free to punt.

However, the fact that punters actually create and maintain simple arbitrage profits enjoyed by businesses is testament to nuffie notions held by the ingnorant and uneducated but full of opinion like those you post about stuff you dont understand.

 

[Worm4]

Oh.

Do ALL betting agencies offer exactly the same odds?

And it was simply an example for the point of the discussion.

'But, but, but you left out Carlton....'

I am yet to see a market where Collingwood is ahead of Carlton in premiership betting for 2025

 

[JustaBattler]

Oh.

Do ALL betting agencies offer exactly the same odds?

And it was simply an example for the point of the discussion.

'But, but, but you left out Carlton....'

Indeed - you left out Carlton from your own post ( purposefully) and in order to make another troll. So the "data" you reference isnt data at all - is it? Your opionion is superior in yoru opnion from the aggregate (current) pricing of VAR and just proves teh point that has been made to you by numerous posters over time - your opnion is just that and doesn't speak to probability at all- because it can't.

 

[Fadge]

Ive just politely told you (again) that there is a difference between 'opnion' and probability ...

Betting markets are based on making a risk free profit on VAR - simple as that. Punters can come to their opnion by whatever means they choose to - oija boards, abacuses, spreadsheets and hope...whatever flloats their boat. they can even parade their opnion as derived from 'data' - and use whatever nonsense they choose to imbue thier ignorant postings with a form of slef madfe cheap gravitas - punteres are free to punt.

However, the fact that punters actually create and maintain simple arbitrage profits enjoyed by businesses is testament to nuffie notions held by the ingnorant and uneducated but full of opinion like those you post about stuff you dont understand.

So how do you determine the relative probabilities of each team winning the flag?

Or based on your statements above, are Richmond as likely to win the flag as Brisbane?

 

[Fadge]

14th now is it ? It was 17th a few weeks ago - maybe the list improved since your last post

14th. 17th.

It doesn't really matter. Either way, well of the pace as usual.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Okay, rather than rating them on what I feel their team is like
Lets do a ladder predictor where you then apply that to fixture and HGA

 

[Fadge]

Indeed - you left out Carlton from your own post ( purposefully) and in order to make another troll. So the "data" you reference isnt data at all - is it? Your opionion is superior in yoru opnion from the aggregate (current) pricing of VAR and just proves teh point that has been made to you by numerous posters over time - your opnion is just that and doesn't speak to probability at all- because it can't.

It was a simple example that some teams are more likely than others.

Though according to you, they're not... Because it's all based on 'opinion' that can't be equated to probability....

 

[Fadge]

I am yet to see a market where Collingwood is ahead of Carlton in premiership betting for 2025

Be patient and wait until April 2025.

 

[Arr0w]

Agencies frame a summary market, from there, it's punter wagering that force odds to change

 

[evolved2]

Okay, rather than rating them on what I feel their team is like
Lets do a ladder predictor where you then apply that to fixture and HGA

View attachment 2196069

Carlton and Adelaide in the top 3...

 

[The Feeder Club]

because probability has NOTHING to do with 'opnion' or betting odds.

What? Odds has everything to do with probability, and the mathematical equation is not complex at all, it's very simple.
Odds = probability/(1-probability)
How do you think bookmakers frame an opening market on Thursday before raceday Saturday? They compute what they think the probability of a horse winning is, and set odds accordingly.
I think I get what you are saying in that they can only make an inexact computation of probability based on all availability information to them, but odds are entirely based on probability

 

[Fadge]

Agencies frame a summary market, from there, it's punter wagering that force odds to change

Is that right?

So if Brisbane are $4 for the flag before the Preliminary Final, it's the punters' money that brings them in to $1.80 for the Grand Final after they win the Preliminary Final, not the betting agencies calculating the revised probability before reopening their books?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Brisbane’s draw is absolutely brutal. With a real short preseason and large rehab group at the moment they won’t finish top.

The short preseason shouldn't matter. You play Geelong and Sydney who also have very short preseasons and then have easy beats in West Coast (at home) and Richmond. The first game where you're playing a team off a longer preseason who are a threat is the dogs in round 5 by which time you should be running on top of the ground.

 

[Arr0w]

Is that right?

So if Brisbane are $4 for the flag before the Preliminary Final, it's the punters' money that brings them in to $1.80 for the Grand Final after they win the Preliminary Final, not the betting agencies calculating the revised probability before reopening their books?

Firstly, 4 sides are in that market before the preliminary, then 2

Based on volume of money

 

[Worm4]

Firstly, 4 sides are in that market before the preliminary, then 2

Based on volume of money

Makes perfect sense

 

[JustaBattler]

What? Odds has everything to do with probability, and the mathematical equation is not complex at all, it's very simple.
Odds = probability/(1-probability)
How do you think bookmakers frame an opening market on Thursday before raceday Saturday? They compute what they think the probability of a horse winning is, and set odds accordingly.
I think I get what you are saying in that they can only make an inexact computation of probability based on all availability information to them, but odds are entirely based on probability

So odds = probability

but

odds change

therefore probability changes

and these things change according to new information right?

So if there is ALWAYS going to be new information

knowing this -

probability is just what?

odds at a certain point in time?

and odds are?

the aggregate clearing market for VAR that market makers make...

right?

 

[Fadge]

Rubbish

How is it done then?

 

[Arr0w]

Makes perfect sense

Anyone that has a basic level of comprehension

 

[JustaBattler]

It was a simple example that some teams are more likely than others.

Though according to you, they're not... Because it's all based on 'opinion' that can't be equated to probability....

No it wasnt a simple example it was your example - which omitted the current market - stop deflecting..

and of course opnion is just that - it isnt a probability it is an opnion about a future and unknown expected outcome- and expectations are just that...

I would have no argument with anyone- if instead of fancy pantsing nuffery by using the word Probability and substituted it for what it really is - odds based on a clearing mechanisms for opinions or guesses or wishes or hopes...

 

[JustaBattler]

How is it done then?

How is 'what' done?

 

[The Feeder Club]

So odds = probability

but

odds change

therefore probability changes

and these things change according to new information right?

So if there is ALWAYS going to be new information

knowing this -

probability is just what?

odds at a certain point in time?

and odds are?

the aggregate clearing market for VAR that market makers make...

right?

No, what I agree with is what I said - your statement that probability has nothing to do with odds is wrong. No kidding, as probability changes, odds change - that's maths for you.

 

[JustaBattler]

A lot of drivel without saying anything.

But are you saying that it is not more 'probable' for Brisbane to win the flag than any other team in the competition? For example, Richmond?

Opinions are based on data, and betting markets are based on these opinions.

Otherwise, how do YOU assess the relative 'probabilities' of each team winning the flag?

I dont kid myself that any 'assessment' I make today is a probability - because I understand that it is an opnion based on limited knowledge and outcomes that will inevitably change week to week according to hundreds of variables that cant be forecast.

In fact I scratch my head at the confidenve of people who presume to be able to make a call before a season has even started about what a whole bunch of teams who have not much seperating them week to week might or mihgt not achieve over the course of a year.

 

[JustaBattler]

No, what I agree with is what I said - your statement that probability has nothing to do with odds iss wrong. No kidding, as probability changes, odds change - that's maths for you.

If probability changes because things change - you are talking about system dynamics in a non equilibrium which of course is real world.

If we know that this is in fact how the real world operates ( and we do ) then what is probability ?

Sure you can ( AFTER the FACT) use simple agebra to INFER what expecfted outcomes where at any point in time- but this isn't 'probability'

the algebra you quoted by definition is a solution to an equation - but probability isnt of much interest after the fact and if things change all the time and therefore expectations change - people who reference 'probability' to describe this are chasing their own tail - very low signal to noise ratio.