2025 Ladder Predictions

[PerthBoy86]

The Age also has Hawks finishing 9th.

View attachment 2374516
Interestingly, they have the Crows finishing top with 76 points. Which is some achievement given they are now on 52 points with only 5 games left.

Maybe the Age know something we dont know. The AFL to retrospectively award the Crows the 4 pts for the first GC game.

But yeah, Crows and Pies haven't a similar %, so if they both finish on 72 it'll come down to margins.

 

[Hobbes]

This is kind of what’s wrong with ladder predictors, until the last round or two. The Crows probably start favourite in every game, but the odds are that they’ll drop one. Ditto Bulldogs - making up two games on the field will be hard work;

 

[Holy Rioli]

Let's pretend we win Thursday night, and we are sitting 13-6 with a healthy percentage of over 120, having lost one game of football (tight game away against an in form side) in 2 months.

How head****ed are the media in thinking we won't make finals from that position. Hokball really brought out the hate in everyone.

 

[Saints4ever]

Let's pretend we win Thursday night, and we are sitting 13-6 with a healthy percentage of over 120, having lost one game of football (tight game away against an in form side) in 2 months.

How head****ed are the media in thinking we won't make finals from that position. Hokball really brought out the hate in everyone.

Adelaide in Adelaide, Brisbane in Brisbane, Collingwood

I think it’s a pretty reasonable prediction you miss.

You might make it but it’s not an unreasonable prediction you don’t.

 

[Hobbes]

Let's pretend we win Thursday night, and we are sitting 13-6 with a healthy percentage of over 120, having lost one game of football (tight game away against an in form side) in 2 months.

How head****ed are the media in thinking we won't make finals from that position. Hokball really brought out the hate in everyone.

If the Bulldogs win their remaining games (including home games against GWS and Freo) then it’s entirely plausible that a team on 15 wins will live or die on percentage.

GWS have fifteen likely wins, and we’ve assumed they’ll lose to WB. They also have an away game against GC.

GC have 15 likely wins, plus matches against Brisbane (away) and GWS (home)

Fremantle have 15 likely wins, plus a home game against Brisbane. We already assumed they’ll lose away to WB.

Hawthorn have 14 likely wins, plus games against Collingwood, Brisbane (away) and Adelaide (away). You’ll likely need to win one of these to make finals even if the Bulldogs drop one, because they have you on percentage. If Fremantle beat Brisbane, GC beat Brisbane and GWS beat GC, or if any of these teams that don’t get to 16 wins shoot up on percentage, then 15 wins might not be enough for Hawthorn.

 

[Defabs]

Collingwood dont lose here at AO... Crows havent beaten them since 2016 at any ground. they own us

Collingwood have pretty much owned the crows since they joined the AFL in 1991. Crows have only beaten the pies 15 times from 51 attempts. I don’t really recall a time when the crows have had any period of dominance over the pies

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If the Bulldogs win their remaining games (including home games against GWS and Freo) then it’s entirely plausible that a team on 15 wins will live or die on percentage.

GWS have fifteen likely wins, and we’ve assumed they’ll lose to WB. They also have an away game against GC.

GC have 15 likely wins, plus matches against Brisbane (away) and GWS (home)

Fremantle have 15 likely wins, plus a home game against Brisbane. We already assumed they’ll lose away to WB.i

Hawthorn have 14 likely wins, plus games against Collingwood, Brisbane (away) and Adelaide (away). You’ll likely need to win one of these to make finals even if the Bulldogs drop one, because they have you on percentage. If Fremantle beat Brisbane, GC beat Brisbane and GWS beat GC, or if any of these teams that don’t get to 16 wins shoot up on percentage, then 15 wins might not be enough for Hawthorn.

Freo winning 11 of 12 games before losing the last two games of the season and missing out on 15 wins which is normally enough for top 4 is the most Dockery result of all time. Lock er in

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Let's pretend we win Thursday night, and we are sitting 13-6 with a healthy percentage of over 120, having lost one game of football (tight game away against an in form side) in 2 months.

How head****ed are the media in thinking we won't make finals from that position. Hokball really brought out the hate in everyone.

You have away games against Adelaide and Brisbane, plus Collingwood at the mcg.

You wouldn’t go in as favourite for any of those games.

All the teams around you have an easier run home

 

[cactuscall]

Let's pretend we win Thursday night, and we are sitting 13-6 with a healthy percentage of over 120, having lost one game of football (tight game away against an in form side) in 2 months.

How head****ed are the media in thinking we won't make finals from that position. Hokball really brought out the hate in everyone.

Let's pretend you lose to Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You have away games against Adelaide and Brisbane, plus Collingwood at the mcg.

You wouldn’t go in as favourite for any of those games.

All the teams around you have an easier run home

Hawthorn are:

A big percentage ahead of Fremantle.
two games ahead of the Dogs one game ahead of the Suns.

Beaten Adelaide already, beaten Adelaide in Adelaide last year. Good records against all three Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood.

Last patch of games v these 3

ADE
HAW by 3
HAW by 66
HAW by 27
ADE by 3
HAW by 32
4-1

COL
COL by 51
HAW by 66
HAW by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 6
COL by 4
HAW by 19
HAW by 5
HAW by 34
6-3

BRL
BRL by 33
HAW by 25
HAW by 25
HAW by 5
HAW by 12
HAW by 28
5-1

Day returns, Lewis just returned. Outside of Weddle a fully fit side. Touch wood.

Top 4 is on the table, top 8 very likely and missing the 8 would be on the far more unlikely side.

Hawthorn minimum wins will be 14 which is already borderline good enough, let alone 15 which locks them in, 16/17 for top 4.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Im so jealous of Hawks supporters having such unlimited confidence in their team

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Im so jealous of Hawks supporters having such unlimited confidence in their team

Warranted

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Hawthorn are:

A big percentage ahead of Fremantle.
two games ahead of the Dogs one game ahead of the Suns.

Beaten Adelaide already, beaten Adelaide in Adelaide last year. Good records against all three Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood.

Last patch of games v these 3

ADE
HAW by 3
HAW by 66
HAW by 27
ADE by 3
HAW by 32
4-1

COL
COL by 51
HAW by 66
HAW by 5
HAW by 32
COL by 6
COL by 4
HAW by 19
HAW by 5
HAW by 34
6-3

BRL
BRL by 33
HAW by 25
HAW by 25
HAW by 5
HAW by 12
HAW by 28
5-1

Day returns, Lewis just returned. Outside of Weddle a fully fit side. Touch wood.

Top 4 is on the table, top 8 very likely and missing the 8 would be on the far more unlikely side.

Hawthorn minimum wins will be 14 which is already borderline good enough, let alone 15 which locks them in, 16/17 for top 4.

Don’t see the point in looking too far back into the past, 14 wins won’t be good on its own.

It’s almost guaranteed that whoever finishes 9th will be on 14 wins

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Adelaide will probably start favourite for every match to come, and if they win them all they’ll likely finish first. That would involve beating Collingwood at home which would drag them down. Brisbane could finish on top but they have a murderous last five matches.

That said, favourites don’t always win.

Not sure why we would start favourites against the top team who we haven't beaten for years!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Don’t see the point in looking too far back into the past, 14 wins won’t be good on its own.

It’s almost guaranteed that whoever finishes 9th will be on 14 wins

As I said.

Freos percentage will hurt them.

Hawks being 2 games ahead of the Dogs, 1 ahead of Gold Coast who just got belted, bodes well.

Hawks would be the least likely to finish 9th.

Especially given recent history against the clubs mentioned, hard games but Hawthorn are in that conversation for top 4 so 50-50 games.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Im so jealous of Hawks supporters having such unlimited confidence in their team

They're so up and about, what could go wrong? Confidence truly is a feeling.
Though I haven't heard much about hokball lately, what happened to that?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

As I said.

Freos percentage will hurt them.

Hawks being 2 games ahead of the Dogs, 1 ahead of Gold Coast who just got belted, bodes well.

Hawks would be the least likely to finish 9th.

Especially given recent history against the clubs mentioned, hard games but Hawthorn are in that conversation for top 4 so 50-50 games.

Doubt it , freo will win too many games for percentage to keep them out the 8 .

I think it most likely comes down to gws and hawthorn.

It’s possible a team on 15 wins misses

 

[cactuscall]

As I said.

Freos percentage will hurt them.

*could hurt them. Realistically percentage isn't a huge factor for Freo now, wins are. They play WCE, Carlton and Brisbane at home, Port and WB away. They should be expecting to win the home games and 1 of WB/Port imo. Hoping that last round against WB doesn't turn out to be an early elimination final.

 

[Hobbes]

Not sure why we would start favourites against the top team who we haven't beaten for years!

Having not beaten a team for years (or won at a ground for years) doesn’t seem to matter much this year.

Adelaide can be reasonably argued to be the form team of the competition, and they’re playing at home.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

*could hurt them. Realistically percentage isn't a huge factor for Freo now, wins are. They play WCE, Carlton and Brisbane at home, Port and WB away. They should be expecting to win the home games and 1 of WB/Port imo. Hoping that last round against WB doesn't turn out to be an early elimination final.

Eh, Brisbane is a hard game despite being at home.

If Freo get 14 wins which is plausible they would be the favourite to miss due to their %

Dogs being two games behind a few doesn’t help them tho, and the Suns who knows now that they came off a belting.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Doubt it , freo will win too many games for percentage to keep them out the 8 .

I think it most likely comes down to gws and hawthorn.

It’s possible a team on 15 wins misses

Again the point stands. Freo have a decent draw not hard not easy. But their percentage is mediocre.

Dogs are two games behind a few.

Gold Coast just got embarrassed and are a game behind.

GWS are too good to miss, it’ll come down to Suns, Dogs, Freo and Hawthorn. But the former two more likely to miss.

Anyone could tbh, it’s as even as can be.

 

[Hobbes]

Again the point stands. Freo have a decent draw not hard not easy. But their percentage is mediocre.

Dogs are two games behind a few.

Gold Coast just got embarrassed and are a game behind.

GWS are too good to miss, it’ll come down to Suns, Dogs, Freo and Hawthorn. But the former two more likely to miss.

Anyone could tbh, it’s as even as can be.

GC aren’t really a game behind. They have an extra game against Essendon they’ll surely win.

 

[cactuscall]

GC aren’t really a game behind. They have an extra game against Essendon they’ll surely win.

Speaking of which, when do they play that? Surely going to be a disadvantage for them having an extra game squeezed in amongst the final weeks left, compared to everyone else.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Speaking of which, when do they play that? Surely going to be a disadvantage for them having an extra game squeezed in amongst the final weeks left, compared to everyone else.

2 games in the final week , dates haven’t been scheduled yet but rd 23 is Saturday game.

they’ll have to play the last game on weekday surely

 

[Dewyyyyy]

GC aren’t really a game behind. They have an extra game against Essendon they’ll surely win.

They will never win again