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This is probably stating the obvious.

I believe that Cripps is the reason our game plan is so focused on contested football.
He needs to spend more time as a forward and develop that side of his game to ensure his longevity.
 
O'Sullivan is O'Farrell?

Saad will be gone imo.
Our inability to replace Saad is one of the main reasons we find ourselves where we are.. Saad would not be best 22 in any of the top 8 sides, his highlight reel looks amazing but the amount of costly turnovers he is responsible for is alarming.
 
Again, we are simply terrible at developing (improving) players.

Our 'fail' rate must be second to none, bottom 4 at least!
I think our failure rate is about on par with other big clubs.

We have developed a dual brownlow medalist, multiple Coleman medalists, and numerous All Australians in recent.
 

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Sacrificing JSoS and even Kemp would be one of the dumbest things this club has done.
These two are not the same.

We can’t complain about having injuries every year and then keep on one of the most injury prone players going around. In the 6 seasons Keep will have been with us, he’s managed 49 games.

I dont see a break out role for him, even as a forward, he’s a terrible kick for goal.
 
What are people expecting with Cripps? Players get old, players retire, 95% of them before 32 years old, not playing past this age isn’t so much about talent and skill but about how your body can withstand the pressures of the sport and respond to injury.

Age catches some quicker than others, whilst some seem to just stay good for ever, age caught up with Judd, Ablett and Dusty rather quickly. One minute they’re top shelf, the next they are struggling.
 
These two are not the same.

We can’t complain about having injuries every year and then keep on one of the most injury prone players going around. In the 6 seasons Keep will have been with us, he’s managed 49 games.

I dont see a break out role for him, even as a forward, he’s a terrible kick for goal.
Charlie at the same age. Also, consider the amount of time, Kemp has spent forward. 😂

 
How premiership coaches do it.

"We're not in the business of trading our very best players, so Sam Flanders won't be going anywhere," he said.
"I've got a real soft spot for Sam, he's one of my favourites.

"If any list manager is not speaking about the really good players, they're not doing their job. We understand that.
"We've got to make sure this is the very best environment for players.



 
Charlie at the same age. Also, consider the amount of time, Kemp has spent forward. 😂

Im not too sure what your angle is here, you have picked stats at same age, which just happened to be Charlies worst season statistically for us, as some sort of justification that they are on the same trajectory. If you see that, that’s up to you, i just dont see it.

Kemps biggest weakness is his availability. 49 games in 6 years, its not often that players with these issues just come through the other side.


If for some reason we were to lose Harry or Charlie to another club, someone like Kemp would be solid, i dont see the need for his role if you have two quality talls.
 

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Im not too sure what your angle is here, you have picked stats at same age, which just happened to be Charlies worst season statistically for us, as some sort of justification that they are on the same trajectory. If you see that, that’s up to you, i just dont see it.

Kemps biggest weakness is his availability. 49 games in 6 years, its not often that players with these issues just come through the other side.


If for some reason we were to lose Harry or Charlie to another club, someone like Kemp would be solid, i dont see the need for his role if you have two quality talls.
I just love the way some supporters just regard dedicated and loyal players as merely a piece of meat.

Kemp is a valuable member of our squad. He is a tall who is not only talented, he is quick. He is a rare commodity. Despite the pile on he has sometimes endured here, he has been valuable both in defence and in attack. Also, despite nit being given the opportunity at the level, he was a quality midfielder in his junior days.

He remains a quality utility, capable of filling gaps at either end of the ground at the very minimum.

Realistically short term we have plenty of tall defenders, with O’Farrell developing to replace the ageing McGovern and Haynes as an interceptor before transitioning to a genuine KPD. He will be joined by Harry Dean at the next draft who again will be a third tall defender come KPD. Weitering and Silvagni being the incumbent KPD for as long as they are viable. HOF and Dean are both more athletic than the Weiters and JSOS, so we will be set for upwards if a decade down back with obvious progression.

Up forward Harry and Charlie have a mortgage on the key posts (when fit) for four or five years conservatively. Kemp has been effective as a “third tall” including a five goal haul early in the season. What remains to be seen is the impact of a developing O’Keeffe as a forward/ruck foil, should TDK stay. Lemmey is also developing in that space, giving us both depth and progression. We also have third tall prospect Moir who may yet develop to his potential.

While offering a third tall forward option going forward and defensive cover, I would advocate grooming Brodie Kemp as a wingman who has the athletic traits to fill the role, with the bonus of being tall enough to offer a marking target in transition. Think of Richo, and recently the likes of Mason Wood and other taller types to have the role. Acres plays taller than most wingers, but Kemp could provide a further upgrade in the role.

We may have alternate quality options as key forwards and backs, but to keep a quality tall on the books in an alternate role would absolutely be a win. We have a dearth of running distributors which will be difficult to upgrade in the next couple of drafts without deploying Smith and Walker as outside players at least temporarily. I am hopeful Ison may add an option in that sphere from the draft, but will likely take a little time. Kempy could play a year or two on a wing, pinch hitting as a key when required, before perhaps transitioning back to a key forward when Charlie or Harry reach their use by dates.

The signing or otherwise of TDK will likely play a big part in Kempy’s future. Both in terms of role and contract. If we have to find the big bickies for Tom, we likely won’t have the cap left for both Silvagni and Kemp, so there is plenty to play out in that space unfortunately. It will be interesting also to see if signing TDK would bring about a trade for Pittonet for better opportunity and/or to alleviate salary cap pressure.

Our off season will be fascinating.
 
Selwood and Kennedy compared to Cripps?

for the vast majority of the game players aren’t actually contesting. Compared to less contested players I’d say it’s less then 5min more of physical contact. He is also rarely getting hit at full speed as most of his work is done at stoppages. He probably gets tackled an extra few times and lay a few more than most mids.

Even Neale is a contested beast.

Hes also a massive guy. Even though hes a contested player he'd get bashed around less then a smaller similar type of player.

Cripps is weird as far as the great players go. Seems to alternate between sensational seasons and being solid to average. Had 4 years where he would be top 3 in the comp. Every other year he'd struggle to be top 50. Either AA lock or not even in contention.

So its hard to know if this year is an age regression or just another off year. My gut feel is something in the middle. Brownlow Cripps might be gone but I still think hes capable of much more then hes showing atm.

I reckon his future is the role Danger is playing but with more mid time. Though I wouldnt go fully that way yet. Should be a progression over the next few years.
 
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Hes also a massive guy. Even though hes a contested player he'd get bashed around less then a smaller similar type of player.

Cripps is weird as far as the great players go. Seems to alternate between sensational seasons and being solid to average. Had 4 years where he would be top 3 in the comp. Every other year he'd struggle to be top 50. Either AA lock or not even in contention.

So its hard to know if this year is an age regression or just another off year. My gut feel is something in the middle. Brownlow Cripps might be gone but I still think hes capable of much more then hes showing atm.

I reckon his future is the role Danger is playing but with more mid time. Though I wouldnt go fully that way yet. Should be a progression over the next few years.
Agreed although it seems like a lot of Cripps’ lesser form in the past has been related to injuries, at least partially. Feels like he’s playing injured this year to me but we’ll never know.

Previously I wasn’t sure how he’d age as a footballer but I’m confident he can play effectively as a third tall forward now, with stints on the ball. From next year I’d expect to see his mid/fwd split move towards more time forward and that trend should only continue, especially if Jagga and Cody can come in and perform as midfielders.
 
Im not too sure what your angle is here, you have picked stats at same age, which just happened to be Charlies worst season statistically for us, as some sort of justification that they are on the same trajectory. If you see that, that’s up to you, i just dont see it.

Kemps biggest weakness is his availability. 49 games in 6 years, its not often that players with these issues just come through the other side.


If for some reason we were to lose Harry or Charlie to another club, someone like Kemp would be solid, i dont see the need for his role if you have two quality talls.
He was kept in the VFL when available quite a bit. It's not like he was playing AFL from day 1.
 

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This is a good excuse to write about something that Ive been pondering.

Age is basically a filter. You only grow old on an AFL list if you’re a player of quality.

Last year I looked at our list and we had two players over 30 - Newman and Doch. I remember looking at it and thinking that’s exciting, because we’ve got a group that is still young and hitting prime age, with a good amount of younger players to come through. But now I look back at it through the lens of how few players we’ve had come through in the preceding period that have made it through to this age bracket. Newman and Doch were both players we traded in too, and currently the jury is out on whether either of them will play on past next season.

This year we’ve got 7 players 30+. Of that group, Cripps is the only player we drafted. For Geelong, it’s 5 of their 9 30+ players they drafted. For Collingwood, it’s 5/10 over 30. Below Cripps, our next 4 players to hit 30 were traded in, and they aren’t all guaranteed to play games for us past 30.

The big positive for us is the 2016 draft class. 4 talls who, fitness permitting, should all play well into their 30s. Below that though, we’ve got very few between them and Walsh that we drafted who are likely to get there - basically TDK, maybe Boyd and Cotters.

Our drafting was really bad between Cripps (2013) and the end of 2021. 66 picks, only 10 left on the list. 4 picks are playing for other clubs, but only a few get regular games. That’s only 21.2% of our picks that have gone on to have a 4+ year afl career. Post 2021 is too early to tell, no delistings so far, but nearly everyone’s on their initial contract and only a handful have been extended.

For comparison, Collingwood has 14/56 picks, with 7 still on other lists (37.5% still playing). Geelong has 14/60 on their list, with 8 on other lists (36.6% still playing). It’s even more impressive, given that their picks would have been much lower than ours across that period. Geelong had 6 top 20 picks in that period. Collingwood had 9. We had 12.

This means we’ve been playing catchup for the better part of 5 years. We’ve had to spend capital, both picks and cap space to cover the years we lost to bad drafting. Prime age players cost the most in terms of picks (Saad and Cerra) and contracts (McGovern, Williams). This has meant we’ve lost more years where we didn’t get a chance at the top end of the draft, and a cap that’s lacking flexibility to either chase or retain.

And yes, it’s also lead to a lack of assets to trade out. Since we drafted Walsh, we haven’t really lost anyone that we’ve regretted. This sounds like a postive, but it means that the players we’ve been happy to let go haven’t brought in any sort of value. Right now, Kennedy is the one that’s hurt us the most, and he got us pick 38.

We’ve been playing playing money ball the last few years because it’s the only game we’ve been able to play. We went big last year to try and grab a star in a good draft. It hasn’t worked for us this year and we face this year with no trade capital in terms of picks, and seemingly little cap space to chase a free agent.

It’s why the club seems so happy to let TDK walk. He’s probably not the piece that we want to lose, but he’ll bring in a high pick and cap space. If he does decide to stay, it’ll be at a price we’re comfortable with, and we pick up some NGA prospects and maybe be a bit more ruthless on players like Doch, Kemp and even JSOS.

The years of bad drafting, bad contracts and expensive trades have left us carrying debt. We have to pay it off and it’s probably going to hurt.

Docherty is first season back after a knee reco. If he was 25 we would be saying "to go easy on him, he's second year back after a knee reco".

I am not writing Docherty off because, again, he's first year back after a knee reco. His agility is really poor and his run is down. He's still getting 30 odd possessions regularly playing defence. He's not aincent.

Same goes for Newman. He's had a serious knee injury, people are going to blame his age next year when he is not playing well and forget the facts.

Pendlebury was too old and past it, Elliott was injury prone and cooked. In 2019. What changed? They went through a 2-4 year rebuild because they needed to refresh and modernise their list and they improved their coaching group. Both playing some of their best footy at 32 and 37 and on form you would expect both to go again and be playing well next season.

Sound familliar? This is because this is where we are at. We need to have a massive coaching change and we need to refresh and modernise our list. Not a huge turnover and offload players based on age.

We have a lot to learn and we could take a lession from one of the most successful clubs over the last 25 years. Geelong as well, they have been an "old side" for the last 20 years and they keep making the top 4 and winning regular premierships.

We need to do the same. Don't write our veterans off, look after them. Rebuild the list over the next 2-4 years. Take in as many talented, quick and skilled players as we can. Build around our core and try to keep our older players playing well as long as we can.

The problem with us is this is where we usually gut the list, make it all about first round draft picks and then fail again after a long rebuilding phase down the bottom of the ladder. This has and will fail again if we go this way.

Our drafting has been poor, lets not worry about that, lets worry about where our list is and it's ok for a mid range side. We can go either way. Our development has sucked. Part of that is because we "gut" our list. Bring a heap of kids onto a list lacking leadership and veteran players. This and our second rate coaching group we keep putting up. So this needs to come into acount for us going forward.

There is no quick fix for us. I was raising concerns back in 2023, straight after that finals series the red flags were there. I got a lot of criticism for that but have since been proven right. I think we need a new coach, one who is going to embrace modern football and is tactically significantly better. Our recruiting needs a boost, it's been underwhelming.

We need to forget the age thing. We don't have an age problem and none of our players are too old. We, and those players, have other problems. We need to accept that we have a 2-4 year list refreshing period. That means finding some diamonds to top off our side, fill in the weak spots, pump up the forward line, inject pace and kicking skills around the ground. Build a side that has loads of expierence and leadership.

The last time we were any good it was 1995 and apparently we were too old and too slow.

Patience and not throwing the veterans away is the key. There are a few we can lose, however I prefer the Geelong/Collingwood model. They aren't afraid of being too old, they don't full rebuild, they don't trade from their top shelf but they will let go players who want too much. The also attract the best coaches and football department people.
 
Kemp is a decent footballer. We have played him as a key tall defender too often. He's got pace, can find the ball, read the play and has top level endurance. We rarely used him where he can use these strengths. It was a shame as he was supposed to play the third tall forward role this season and for a moment he was going well.

In the right side he could be a very good player.
 
What are people expecting with Cripps? Players get old, players retire, 95% of them before 32 years old, not playing past this age isn’t so much about talent and skill but about how your body can withstand the pressures of the sport and respond to injury.

Age catches some quicker than others, whilst some seem to just stay good for ever, age caught up with Judd, Ablett and Dusty rather quickly. One minute they’re top shelf, the next they are struggling.
IMO it is the mind that goes first. Judd, Ablett, Dusty could all still play but IMO, they had done enough and the carrot was gone. Plus anyone who has tried to play the game well into their 30s. You do lose it. You stop wanting to do the things which hurt and hurt you which makes you a lesser player.

IMO all these guys lost the hunger, not the body, although some did finish after some pretty hard injuries. And to be fair, when the mind starts to let the game go, it's the injuries that tip you over.

Unless you have been there it's hard to understand. A lot of old players get an injury and give it away. Mostly it's not the injury itself, it's the mind saying "I'm already done and I really don't want to do this now". The idea of getting hurt again and doing rehab when you are mentally done.

If Cripps has the mental hunger, then he is not done. I don't buy into the "banged up" Cripps. I think it's about how much he wants it and how well he can keep himself fit.

He hasn't had a great deal of soft tissue injuries (touch wood) which to me puts him in the category of being able to play until he's old. If he can work more on skill and smarts as he ages he will be fine.

I still think Cripps has plenty left.
 
IMO it is the mind that goes first. Judd, Ablett, Dusty could all still play but IMO, they had done enough and the carrot was gone. Plus anyone who has tried to play the game well into their 30s. You do lose it. You stop wanting to do the things which hurt and hurt you which makes you a lesser player.

IMO all these guys lost the hunger, not the body, although some did finish after some pretty hard injuries. And to be fair, when the mind starts to let the game go, it's the injuries that tip you over.

Unless you have been there it's hard to understand. A lot of old players get an injury and give it away. Mostly it's not the injury itself, it's the mind saying "I'm already done and I really don't want to do this now". The idea of getting hurt again and doing rehab when you are mentally done.

If Cripps has the mental hunger, then he is not done. I don't buy into the "banged up" Cripps. I think it's about how much he wants it and how well he can keep himself fit.

He hasn't had a great deal of soft tissue injuries (touch wood) which to me puts him in the category of being able to play until he's old. If he can work more on skill and smarts as he ages he will be fine.

I still think Cripps has plenty left.

Not based on anything other than my belief. If we were a top 4 side, Judd wouldn’t have retired.

I thought Ablett and Dusty both fell off a cliff in their last season but Ablett was 36 and Dusty 33, Judd retired pretty early.

I would like Cripps to be used as a third tall forward who spends a lot of time in the midfield
 
Not based on anything other than my belief. If we were a top 4 side, Judd wouldn’t have retired.

I thought Ablett and Dusty both fell off a cliff in their last season but Ablett was 36 and Dusty 33, Judd retired pretty early.

I would like Cripps to be used as a third tall forward who spends a lot of time in the midfield
100%. Judd had plenty going on post footy, was still playing well, we were cooked as a club/team and he knew it. Was more timing than he being done.

Ablett had shoulder issues but he was still decent. I think he was done with it.

With Dusty, if Richmond were up there still, he would have been playing a lot better. He had won 3 flags, they were entering a rebuild.

What we all need to remember is that not all these super star players love footy. A lot don't. When the good part of the game is gone, especially if your team is cooked, you are gone.
 
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