List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion - part 2

[dudeintheswamp]

Geez these last few pages have been a struggle

 

[botts]

Do we think Windy takes the 5 year offer from North ?
I was quietly confident with Nas staying.
Not so with Windy
I suppose he doesn't have to play with his close mates.
Just catch up with them outside of footy.
Seems weird for me though, that he doesn't want to be on the Saints train to success.

Yeah I think he ends up taking it. We seem to be pushing him out more than anything. Not sure I agree, we will ask for a first rounder though. Dursma does want out of there so maybe we ask for him

 

[phantom13]

Geez these last few pages have been a struggle

View attachment 2404160

Nas signing before the end of the year ruined this joint.

 

[jimmytigs]

My only concern with bringing in Ryan would be the length of contract. Even three years is too much imo. Players hit the wall pretty hard once they hit it.
Plus does he even give anything that Butts doesn’t??? I know Butts has had his injuries this year but don’t forget we’re all hinging our hopes on King who doesn’t just have weeks off he has seasons off.

i havent watched Ryan a lot,but butler is not a good example,trying millionaire moves all the time,refuses to just play the ball,drops marks on purpose because lining up from 20-30 is not his brand,picking it up and running around to create the spectacular is what he tries all the time,he costs us goals

im not overjoyed with the ryan pursuit,but butler is no example to use to oppose it,if the club think ryan is right then im happy to back them,they want naz after 2 years as much as i do & this shot at a flag is probably my last above ground,im 57,i cant afford to be negative,so if ryan arrives im backing him in,i already know butler is not it

all the way with tdk aleer ryan and whoever else if they come,this constant badgering about these guys,not from you and more about tdk is just ridiculous

 

[stavro#4]

Dodson himself says he tries to model his game on Luke Jackson. If I remember correctly, Jackson took no time at all to get going. If you are ready, you are ready - no need to follow set rules about time.

Jackson was also a pick 3 and one of his unique traits is his mobility that allows him to move like a tall midfielder at times. Hence Freo playing him as a follower whilst Darcy rucked at times.

They aren’t the same, no matter how hard you try make it so.

 

[PJays]

Do you know if any of TDKs reported wage will contain contributions from the marketing fund or is all of it directly from the cap?

The reports about TDK haven't specified that, as far as I've seen.

The reports about the fund suggest it relates to additional activities above and beyond the player contract:

Marketing fund

The following statement is attributed to AFLPA CEO, Paul Marsh.

www.aflplayers.com.au

On top of their already existing obligations, players will be remunerated for undertaking game development....

But whether TDK's reported figure includes marketing fund amounts, not sure.

 

[Holy Hunter Clark]

I never called anyone on here a pedo - stop making stuff up.

You had a crack at some poor poster because of his username

I don't usually play the man, but given insult came from someone with an unfortunate name themselves, I returned fire

Heres a thought.

How about you focus on understanding the salary cap better, instead of asking for other users to get thrown out?!

Here's a thought, knick off.

 

[Sully111]

So because I don't have full knowledge of our player contracts, I'm not allowed to criticise a new contract.

Meanwhile you don't have full knowledge of our contracts, but you're allowed to praise a new contract.

Right. Gotcha!

Here's the thing, nobody really knows the figures. Yes, both sides of these arguments pull figures that have been "reported" but it's mostly speculation at best.

I understand you enjoy list management debates. You've spoken about how people have open debates with sports like NFL I believe. For me personally though, I find trying to really dig down into it when I don't have all the facts a bit of a waste of time. When you just want to keep relentlessly going on about it, many will take it as looking for reasons to bag the club.

Having said that, I get that some here think all the club does is shit gold nuggets.

At the end of the day though, relentless speculation without having the facts is kinda mind numbing.

I've accepted TDK is coming and hope its works a treat. I'll let the club worry about the money. I'm really not sold on Aleer. I desperately want us to keep Windy. Nothing I can do about any of it though, and going back and forth on it doesn't achieve anything.

What I'm looking for next year is improvement from our coaches. Something that gets mentioned very little here. If we want to maximise the benefit of bringing new players in and having King back, I want to see us playing smarter, better structured footy. I'm hoping for a big emphasis on skills in the pre season.

 

[TheJackal]

Jackson was also a pick 3 and one of his unique traits is his mobility that allows him to move like a tall midfielder at times. Hence Freo playing him as a follower whilst Darcy rucked at times.

They aren’t the same, no matter how hard you try make it so.

In that case, Stav has spoken. Can't wait until 2028 to see our developing ruckman get a proper run at it because he wasn't a top 3 pick so can't possibly be considered good enough to buck the trend.

But in all seriousness, noone is trying hard to make it so, as you put it. If he's good enough, he's ready, its as simple as that.

 

[PJays]

Here's the thing, nobody really knows the figures. Yes, both sides of these arguments pull figures that have been "reported" but it's mostly speculation at best.

I understand you enjoy list management debates. You've spoken about how people have open debates with sports like NFL I believe. For me personally though, I find trying to really dig down into it when I don't have all the facts a bit of a waste of time. When you just want to keep relentlessly going on about it, many will take it as looking for reasons to bag the club.

Having said that, I get that some here think all the club does is shit gold nuggets.

At the end of the day though, relentless speculation without having the facts is kinda mind numbing.

I've accepted TDK is coming and hope its works a treat. I'll let the club worry about the money. I'm really not sold on Aleer. I desperately want us to keep Windy. Nothing I can do about any of though and going back and forth on it doesn't achieve anything.

What I'm looking for next year is improvement from our coaches. Something that gets mentioned very little here. If we want to maximise the benefit of bringing new players in and having King back, I want to see us playing smarter, better structured footy. I'm hoping for a big emphasis on skills in the pre season.

Fair comment.

From my perspective, analysing list management is a big part of following professional sports.

We all enjoy watching the team play, but that game is played within a framework of rules. Thinking about how the team is put together, and the framework governs it- not just what they do on the field- is enjoyable to me.

I get that some people can't be assed thinking about that, and instead just want a pie and a beer and cheer on. And the only thinking is about in-game strategy. Fair enough.

But after following sport for a long time, not just footy, I've realised it's not just the teams with talented players and coaches who win. It's clubs with smart people running the show, which ultimately feeds into that on-field success in various ways. So naturally when I post on a forum like this, I'm interested in that stuff.

I think if AFL free agency ever becomes more prominent and less restricted like other sports, the importance of list management and salary cap management will be more obvious and more fans will pay closer attention to it.

We still operate in an environment where most players play their entire career with one club. And 99% play for two clubs at most. I personally think that's a good thing. But it's a very unique aspect of AFL.

Obviously AFL contracts aren't public knowledge (again, unlike other sports) but I think there's ample information out there to have reasonably informed analytical discussions about aspects of it. And the value of individual player contracts.

When you are used to leagues with constant player movement, you become conditioned to automatically analyse the value of the contract, and how it fits with the cap.

Hope that explains where I'm coming from.

 

[stavro#4]

In that case, Stav has spoken. Can't wait until 2028 to see our developing ruckman get a proper run at it because he wasn't a top 3 pick so can't possibly be considered good enough to buck the trend.

But in all seriousness, noone is trying hard to make it so, as you put it. If he's good enough, he's ready, its as simple as that.

Our 1 game superstar was dropped this week.

It’s entirely in our supporter bases DnA to make out we have the next superstar and demand the path be cleared for them to play every game and immediately.

Irrespective of being shown that rucks take time to develop you opt for the 1 example of a ruck who didn’t - who is also unique and seen as a generational talent because they could also play midfield if his club wanted to. Went top 3 in a draft and was traded for a premium aswell.

Let’s also ignore our coach saying the best sides and referenced Geelong, allow kids a couple of seasons of development before they are considered ready to step into and contribute to an AFL side.

Let’s also ignore the fact it’s being made clear the need to shift from a development to an outcome side because of this entire Nasiah scenario.

But sure, let’s tell TDK not to come because the Jackal knows best. Dodson our saviour is right there, with his 4 games of leading a VFL ruck and his 1 senior AFL game that he got subbed in.

 

[stavro#4]

Fair comment.

From my perspective, analysing list management is a big part of following professional sports.

We all enjoy watching the team play, but that game is played within a framework of rules. Thinking about how the team is put together, and the framework governs it- not just what they do on the field- is enjoyable to me.

I get that some people can't be assed thinking about that, and instead just want a pie and a beer and cheer on. And the only thinking is about in-game strategy. Fair enough.

But after following sport for a long time, not just footy, I've realised it's not just the teams with talented players and coaches who win. It's clubs with smart people running the show, which ultimately feeds into that on-field success in various ways. So naturally when I post on a forum like this, I'm interested in that stuff.

I think if AFL free agency ever becomes more prominent and less restricted like other sports, the importance of list management and salary cap management will be more obvious and more fans will pay closer attention to it.

We still operate in an environment where most players play their entire career with one club. And 99% play for two clubs at most. I personally think that's a good thing. But it's a very unique aspect of AFL.

Obviously AFL contracts aren't public knowledge (again, unlike other sports) but I think there's ample information out there to have reasonably informed analytical discussions about aspects of it. And the value of individual player contracts.

When you are used to leagues with constant player movement, you become conditioned to automatically analyse the value of the contract, and how it fits with the cap.

Hope that explains where I'm coming from.

Not sure how you can claim there is enough information to claim we know the situation with TDK when it’s been reported as 1.7m then 1.8m and as of yesterday 1.6m and likely to drop further once announced. With Andrew Bassat already saying the figures actually aren’t that high.

When it’s all said and done it likely averages out to 1.3m-1.4m and that’s going to be a lot more acceptable.

 

[Sully111]

Fair comment.

From my perspective, analysing list management is a big part of following professional sports.

We all enjoy watching the team play, but that game is played within a framework of rules. Thinking about how the team is put together, and the framework governs it- not just what they do on the field- is enjoyable to me.

I get that some people can't be assed thinking about that, and instead just want a pie and a beer and cheer on. And the only thinking is about in-game strategy. Fair enough.

But after following sport for a long time, not just footy, I've realised it's not just the teams with talented players and coaches who win. It's clubs with smart people running the show, which ultimately feeds into that on-field success in various ways. So naturally when I post on a forum like this, I'm interested in that stuff.

I think if AFL free agency ever becomes more prominent and less restricted like other sports, the importance of list management and salary cap management will be more obvious and more fans will pay closer attention to it.

We still operate in an environment where most players play their entire career with one club. And 99% play for two clubs at most. I personally think that's a good thing. But it's a very unique aspect of AFL.

Obviously AFL contracts aren't public knowledge (again, unlike other sports) but I think there's ample information out there to have reasonably informed analytical discussions about aspects of it. And the value of individual player contracts.

When you are used to leagues with constant player movement, you become conditioned to automatically analyse the value of the contract, and how it fits with the cap.

Hope that explains where I'm coming from.

I do understand, but I still think without knowing the figures and all the inner working of the contracts, arguing is just a bit silly.

You do you though... this is a forum for list management discussion after all.

Do you know if the contracts are made public in sports like NFL and Baseball? I honestly have no idea.

 

[Train12]

In that case, Stav has spoken. Can't wait until 2028 to see our developing ruckman get a proper run at it because he wasn't a top 3 pick so can't possibly be considered good enough to buck the trend.

But in all seriousness, noone is trying hard to make it so, as you put it. If he's good enough, he's ready, its as simple as that.

I like a lot of what you post mate.

But what harm does TDK have in coming to the club ? Forgot salary cap as none of us have any idea of what our cap capacity is or what he is actually being paid.

Dodson is 18? First year? Let him get his legs.

I believe if the club was more confident in Kings body we would be more open to trading Marshall and get good value for him.

But keep Marshall for a year, let Dodson keep developing, and end of next year if Kings body holds up, trade Marshall (it will be for less), and have then Dodson and TDK combo - he will still only be 19/20 when this occurs.

Say if we didn’t get TDK, do people want Marshall and Dodson - who cannot run out a game (developing still). What happens if Marshall gets injured?!

Also 5 on the bench next year leaves 2 rucks a better chance. That new footy boss wants rucks back jumping into each other at centre bounces - TDK speciality

We have been super lucky this hasn’t occurred over the last 2 years. By all reports he has been playing injured a fair chunk of the last 2 years?

As much as I love Heath, I believe he is to slow to be an afl player.

 

[Train12]

I do understand, but I still think without knowing the figures and all the inner working of the contracts, arguing is just a bit silly.

You do you though... this is a forum for list management discussion after all.

Do you know if the contracts are made public in sports like NFL and Baseball? I honestly have no idea.

Yeah they are made public, including guaranteed money etc - in NFL

 

[Coconut_twirl]

Take with a massive grain of salt. My mate who’s bit involved with the Cats. Hearing Whispers SDK could make the trip down the highway at the expense of Marshall in a trade.

Why would Geelong entertain that idea? Swapping a younger player for an older player.

 

[Coconut_twirl]

To be honest, even though its Carlton, I'm a little uneasy with all this gloating about one of their players leaving in free agency for an irresistible offer

I think footy's better when the good players stay with their clubs.

I’m not uneasy because it’s Carlton. In fact, you could say I’m the opposite of uneasy.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

Regardless of Dodson's potential, you do not structure your list around a first or second year ruck.

The vast, vast majority of rucks can't handle the rigours of a full AFL season until they're 24-25. Even Jackson, who people keep bringing up, only really took the number 1 mantle last year, when he was 22, and he's the exception not the rule.

If Dodson comes good earlier, then that is, as Ross would say, a good problem to have. In the meantime, let's put together a list that can compete in finals in the short term, but do so in a way that that list can have a sustained crack at a flag. It seems to me that that is the strategy at the moment, and I'm all for it.

 

[Coconut_twirl]

I wish he stayed for another year but playing in our ressies team. he would have been great for our young defenders

He could still sign up for the Saints reserves.

 

[PJays]

Not sure how you can claim there is enough information to claim we know the situation with TDK when it’s been reported as 1.7m then 1.8m and as of yesterday 1.6m and likely to drop further once announced. With Andrew Bassat already saying the figures actually aren’t that high.

When it’s all said and done it likely averages out to 1.3m-1.4m and that’s going to be a lot more acceptable.

The contract has consistently, everywhere, in all media, been reported as $1.7-$1.8m a year.

And total of $12.5 over 7 was mentioned on numerous occasions.

It's never, anywhere to my knowledge, been reported as $1.3-$1.4.

If it has, please share the source.

This week on gettable, they said 8 years with the majority of years $1.8 then decreasing towards the end. In the case, at least 2026-2030 are $1.8mil. Perhaps average ends lower, but St Kilda's still saddled with $1.8 for at least 5 years.

It's possible the marketing fund could be utilised- which means it's not a $1.8m under the cap, it's say $1.5m with 300k for off-field activities.

But I haven't heard any suggestion that's the case, so the baseline assumption should be that the consistently reported figures relate to his playing contract.

The wider point here is that whether St Kilda should sign TDK depends on the value.

If good value, yes. If poor value, no.
 
We can have views about him as a player and what figures would represent value.

And no one knows the figures for absolute certain.

But, you're all arguing with me saying "you don't know for sure, you shouldn't be criticising it". The same applies back.

You don't know for sure, and if knowing for certain is the precondition to having an opinion against, it should also be the precondition on having an opinion in favour.

 

[OxSaint]

Regardless of Dodson's potential, you do not structure your list around a first or second year ruck.

The vast, vast majority of rucks can't handle the rigours of a full AFL season until they're 24-25. Even Jackson, who people keep bringing up, only really took the number 1 mantle last year, when he was 22, and he's the exception not the rule.

If Dodson comes good earlier, then that is, as Ross would say, a good problem to have. In the meantime, let's put together a list that can compete in finals in the short term, but do so in a way that that list can have a sustained crack at a flag. It seems to me that that is the strategy at the moment, and I'm all for it.

Exactly. To be fair unless it’s Daicos or Reid you don’t structure a list build around any 1st and 2nd year players.

Dunstan, McCartin, Billings, Arces all showed early promise. None ended up players that were integral to the club. Can’t just assume every draftee that shows a little early is going to take us to the promised land. Very few do.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

Exactly. To be fair unless it’s Daicos or Reid you don’t structure a list build around any 1st and 2nd year players.

Dunstan, McCartin, Billings, Arces all showed early promise. None ended up players that were integral to the club. Can’t just assume every draftee that shows a little early is going to take us to the promised land. Very few do.

100% my dude. Best things (or at least most realistic best case scenario) for us would be a TDK/Marshall combo working well in the AFL, and Dodson playing a full year as the first ruck in the VFL, and then putting pressure on Marshall's spot at the end of the year/going into 2027.

People forget that old Dodzilla hasn't even played that much as a ruck in the VFL yet, despite showing great signs!

 

[goodie23]

Why would Geelong entertain that idea? Swapping a younger player for an older player.

Because old players is what they do?

 

[gringo2011]

Years 3-7 will be circa 2028-2034 with a TPP that you would expect will make $1.2-1.3m very manageable.

Nothing to stop us smoothing out the final few years past 2034 either (although he might be on a walking stick by then).

McGovern, Williams & Martin were borderline spuds when the Blues threw A grade cash at them (in combination with their actual A graders also being on massive coin.)

No they weren't. Williams was starring off HBF at GWS, they thought he could be a mid. Jack Martin looked on his way to being a star and McGovern looked a premium tall back. All looked like solid gets. Injury cruelled Martin and Williams. McGovern wasn't able to take the next step.

 

[gringo2011]

Not to be negative but I'd be shocked if Windy was with us next year.

Watching him today, and he just seemed withdrawn from the group.

If he does go I think it will hurt us a lot more than people realise. Unless they pull off something like Flanders or another mid that can step up we go backwards short term and probably long term unless we can find a ready made replacement. I think he could end up embarrassing us and also makes us look a bit less credible in our criticism of the AFL.