List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
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[Mat Mann]

That concerns me re: Hammer as he has shown very little as a forward.

any idea who the one on the left is?

I think he's shown plenty, and has done it as the main fwd

 

[stavro#4]

I think Ryan is a front and centre roving upgrade on Butler. Butler has gotten most of his recent goals by running forward of the ball from memory. I can’t recall him doing a lot on tight spaces at the foot of the taller forwards. I think Ryan is more dangerous in this situation (like Higgo) and much better overhead. So on that basis, I think it’s an upgrade.

People will probably tell me I am wrong and perhaps I am. I haven’t seen a lot of WCE This season, admittedly.

I posted his highlight footage from this year. 8 minutes long.

Enjoy

 

[stavro#4]

View attachment 2420007
any idea who the one on the left is?

I think he's shown plenty, and has done it as the main fwd

Nate Caddy

 

[The Punter]

The issue with Ryan (or anyone else) replacing Butler is replacing the pressure.

 

[ScrappyDo]

The wins are relatively minor on the field and cost us plenty in cap and flexability moving forward so it’s questionable.

Just as an example TDK + Flanders isn’t a win of any real significance over Marshall + Windhager and it’s got to be a dollar loss of $1 million plus. The kicker is what do we do with the Windhager pick ?, that’s what will determine the outcome of that exercise and if we’re using it on a trade we’re now down $1.8 million at least.

Just look at how much we improve on the field. Silvagni I like that’s a win, Ryan over a fit butler not much imo, Aleer nothing in the short term.

Again it’s all about part two or all we’ve done is make noise. If part two are just B graders or worse like CMac currently is then we’ve spent a lot of money to improve slightly. A slight improvement won’t get us another 5 or 6 wins which we’d need to make finals.

I’m just pondering what we’d look like with a fit team if we’d stopped at TDK, Silvagni and Ryan then added a mid using pick 7. Marshall stays, Windhager stays, Steele stays. We could also have taken pick 7 to the draft and picked up Fincher with later picks.

Anyway you tell me what you think of it all. I think there’s plenty to to play out and some genuine concerns about what we do from here.

Also I definitely don’t see Windhager leaving as a win, far from it.

I don't like this logic. Granted you're probably correct that there is no big win but several small wins combine to generate the same. IMO this is all designed to place us in the top 4 in 2 years which is when you can go shopping for a top 5 free agent if needed. It's a patching list holes exercise rather than an all out checkmate move.
Butts is cooked so we disagree there. TDK offers 5 years in his prime and will help win more CBA's which is important.
I think Nas let slip the internal narrative, they're gunning for 2027. That being the start of the window, so will include the growth of the u23 brigade to coincide with their prime years.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Surely we have to do both.

We have plenty of players selected in the first round of the draft. Well get a free hit at an NGA and probably have a first round selection.

We need to be competitive asap

Talking about ignoring the traditional rebuild is just so much rubbish.
We’ve drafted more players in the last 4 years than any other club.

As Hird said, this depends also on the core - which he and Bartel are bullish about.

 

[sauce_head]

I posted his highlight footage from this year. 8 minutes long.

Definite upgrade. Looking trimmer than I can recall as well. Hopefully gets a good preseason in and maintains that speed and acceleration. Good to rotate through the middle as well.

 

[CursingFijian]

....to quote the deli lama ...

 

[jimmytigs]

Yeah I get it, why not us, screw the afl, fly the black flag, we all want to win and win now not in 5 years time. That doesn’t mean the conservative or negative are wrong.

history may show they are not wrong,may show they are,but do they have to harp on and on and on and on and on with the same crap all the time?then seemingly jump for joy if the club has potentially made a blunder?

the ones that really annoy me are the ones that have to remind us that we are paying tdk 8x1.whatever it is,but they dont raise the other known fact that jelly jdg callaghan rowell mccluggage merrett brayshaw? ldu reid? all knocked us back before that(reid after that),then they fail miserably every fxxxken on and on to offer up their alternatives,considering all those players knocked us back

in my own saints frustration(and we all have it,i understand that)i have previously stated,we will never win a flag,but lets make finals once every 3 years,lets win the pre season comp(back in the day),snag the odd brownlow and continue to win or be runner up to dodo in the trade period

maybe thats what these guys want,just do bugger all,keep the players that are keeping us in 12th position year in year out and give us all the ammunition we need to stay negative=FFS

the club is trying something,if your going to bemoan it(on and on and on and on and on)maybe offer up your alternative plan,like who is coming to the saints for 1.1 million $ only?if not tdk and all those other names? i know=sam berry noah answerth blake acres jayden laverde will brodie jed bews fiorini ohalloran bailey scott t.dow florent duggan,is that the plan there not disclosing when they on and on and on?

 

[sauce_head]

The issue with Ryan (or anyone else) replacing Butler is replacing the pressure.

That is true. But Butler did not spend too much time in the team. Not sure what Ryan’s pressure is like but he will offer us more in terms of midfield rotation, creativity and goals. Butler spent a lot of time missing when in the game.

 

[PJays]

Howard Butler Hill Jones are all on the list 5 seasons later. Ryder was immense when fit and playing.

It was a win.

All decent deals except one loss.

Losing Blake Acres and a pick that could've netted Kosi Pickett, Will Day, Sam Flanders, Miles Bergman or Cody Weightman (picks 11-15).

People point to Brad Hill's leadership role amongst our indigenous cohort, as evidence Nas would've left without him. That's speculation. I'd rather have the 1st and 2nd best young indigenous players in the comp playing together for the next 10 years (Nas and Kosi Pickett). Instead of Hill who might have 1 or 2 meaningful years left.

Worst case you get Marshall but 4 years younger. Best case you can the next elite ruck.

Over the last 2 years Marshall has got more coaches votes than TDK. 72 to 62.

But given TDK's 3 1/2 years younger, he probably will be an improvement on Marshall- if not next year, then in the medium term.

The issue for me is whether it's enough of an improvement to justify the huge contract, when we already had a solid ruck and a succession plan with Dodson and Heath.

The smart way to find rucks is trading in young players who won't cost the earth in draft assets or salary. That's how Hawthorn and Collingwood got Lloyd Meek and Darcy Cameron- they were just as good as TDK this year.

And it might end up being how St Kilda loses Dodson.

 

[On the Outer Wing]

Everyone agrees we need to improve our list to become a contender. Particularly as Collingwood has shown, it takes a full squad, not just best 23, to be a contender.

I assume most people agree after several years of mostly going to the draft, that the best way to get a better squad for 2026 is to shift the balance - and trade in more free agents and contracted players (as well as still going to the draft).

Now, we'd all love the traded in players to be the likes of what Geelong did with bringing in stars like Dangerfield and Cameron. But the reality is that quality of player isn't coming to us.

So we do the next best thing - trading in players that we can improve with a fresh environment and our coaching/medical team. It has worked for us with Wood and Stocker. I bet most Hawthorn supporters looked at Chol and Amon before they were traded in and said 'no thanks'.

I know we haven't had a great past record of trading in players and improving them. We've been burnt many times. But the reality is, that's all we've got to work with in 2026.

So I say let's trust the list management assessment of the traded in players and the current coaching/medical team to get it right this time. And stop being doomsayers, saying 'no thanks' so much and not providing alternative positive suggestions.

And if we do get it right, just picture this - our defensive squad will have improved with JSOS and Aleer, so will our attack with King back and Ryan who frees up Hall into our midfield, which will have improved with Flanders and also TDK and hopefully Marshall playing together as 2 rucks with 5 on the bench - and of course, then there's the cream on top, Nas.

I think there's a lot to look forward to in 2026.

 

[phantom13]

If Marshall goes. Camma has to play forward.

Wilkie probably plays on a smaller player next year. Even Jamie Elliott types. So it would still allow for Howard (FB) Aleer (CHB) Tauru Sinclair and a Hastie/Stocker.

No he doesnt. King, Sharman, Keeler. We managed without King this year. He can if they wanna go that way but its not a neccesity. It still means Howard plays back and weve got too many with JSOS as well.

No reports on our money.

Just that Melbourne and north are at 800/5 years.

The rumour is we are arguing over 50k not that we are 50k off matching the offer.

Fair. i think Windy is worth $800k personally but this feels like way less of a concern.

I think Ryan is a front and centre roving upgrade on Butler. Butler has gotten most of his recent goals by running forward of the ball from memory. I can’t recall him doing a lot on tight spaces at the foot of the taller forwards. I think Ryan is more dangerous in this situation (like Higgo) and much better overhead. So on that basis, I think it’s an upgrade.

People will probably tell me I am wrong and perhaps I am. I haven’t seen a lot of WCE This season, admittedly.

Yeh fair, im not super concerned about Ryan as a forward other than age/body. The midfield/backline thing is more targeting externals at the expense of what weve got IMO.

 

[_Maximus_12]

The issue with Ryan (or anyone else) replacing Butler is replacing the pressure.

There’s no pressure from butler when he’s sitting in the stands unfortunately.

 

[phantom13]

Talking about ignoring the traditional rebuild is just so much rubbish.
We’ve drafted more players in the last 4 years than any other club.

As Hird said, this depends also on the core - which he and Bartel are bullish about.

Yeh im certainly not saying weve ignored the traditional rebuild, weve clearly done that for the core but with all the targets were looking at mass change this year.

If (and its a big if) we get all the realistic targets then its TDK, Aleer, JSOS, Ryan, C-Mac and Flanders. Thats 6, thats 1/3rd of our starting 18.

Throw in that Pou and King should be back and thats 8 guys who likely played a big of footy this year back to the twos.

The concerns would be guys like Boxxy, Garcia, Collard etc. up and leaving at seasons end.

Now that might be okay, all the imports are good but you have to question how much of our drafting was a waste if were just gonna supplant them with trades/FA's.

Ive always thought Trades/FA's were supposed to compliment what you draft, were going away from that model a bit.

 

[thekizzler]

Being a crusted on Saints member/supporter for so long has moulded my loyalties to player/s I perceive as quality. Plus I hate losing decent players, but it is a very fluid industry now.

After giving the Windhager situation more thought, as much as I hate the idea of losing him because of $$$ or internal ratings. I guess we have to accept the club will make it work.

Trust is not something that comes easy when considering our history of recruiting, but apart from Battle I think SOS & the club have pulled the right levers in the past few years. Im still hoping we dont lose Windhager or Marshall, but I guess we have to trust the club will turn the trades into players of more long term value to the list.

The above shouldnt prevent people giving opinions on player movement eg I really dont rate Aleer and believe Ryan is cooked. But again hope the club know what they are doing.

I rate this.

It's hard parting with players that you're attached to. 100%

But the one positive in the situation is that Windy isn't gone yet. If Mark Fine is the only noise, then we are pretty safe until otherwise.

I hope Windy stays. But if he thinks he is better off with a larger pay packet at Melbourne, then onwards and upwards.

 

[PJays]

IMO this is all designed to place us in the top 4 in 2 years which is when you can go shopping for a top 5 free agent if needed. It's a patching list holes exercise rather than an all out checkmate move.

St Kilda will almost certainly not have the funds to get a top free agent in 2 years if we're top 4 (assuming Nas re-signs) now that we've locked in this massive TDK contract. Because being top 4 would mean we've succeeded- and many of our players are playing well and need new contracts.

Nas and TDK would be among the highest paid players in the comp in 2028. You can't have a 3rd guy also being one of the highest paid!

Hall and Wilkie will need new deals.

Pou- if he has a break-out year in 2026 will demand a big contract from 2027.

St Kilda has gone all-in right now. Chips on the table. We've made our choice and it was TDK. The ship has probably sailed looking for other big FAs for the foreseeable future.

 

[bird_man]

This is Flanders 2024 vs Windy this year. I don’t know whether it’s role or injury that’s impacting Flanders right now. But that 2024 is a significant upgrade on windy.

View attachment 2419989

This is 2025 TDK v Marshall. (Left to right).
Keep in mind, people are slamming TDK. But this is half a season as a #1 ruck and half a season as a forward v Marshall as a sole ruck.

TDKs data set rounds 1 v 12 were comparable to Gawn. I posted awhile back.

View attachment 2419990

Worst case you get Marshall but 4 years younger. Best case you can the next elite ruck.

How can you argue only a marginal gain?

And if you compare Flanders stats to Windhagers at the same age than Windhager comes out in front.

His last 7 rounds showed he can win a lot of footy and seems to be tracking very well.

 

[CursingFijian]

I posted his highlight footage from this year. 8 minutes long.

He curls one through the big sticks from about 40m out off his non preferred in one of his highlight reels I watched on X. Not sure if this one or not.

We all know he can leap (and fight) but his football skills are exquisite, and he is very quick.

I think he is going to be fun to watch for many and infuriating for a few.

But regardless of how he rubs you up, he will impact the scoreboard for us next year if he stays on the park.

 

[The Punter]

There’s no pressure from butler when he’s sitting in the stands unfortunately.

Correct, and we've struggled the last two years because of it. But it's a vital role that needs to be filled by a specialist.

 

[Saint Hendy]

This is Flanders 2024 vs Windy this year. I don’t know whether it’s role or injury that’s impacting Flanders right now. But that 2024 is a significant upgrade on windy.

View attachment 2419989

Have been a big fan of getting Flanders based on watching him play in 24 but the comparison makes me think he’s not much of an upgrade on the failings we see in Windy - lack of impact with ball and winning contested ball.

 

[MightySaint]

Flanders (IMO) is a better footballer. If it's a straight up choice between Flanders and Windy, I take Flanders every time. Stupid sexy is extremely composed and uses the ball really well. Completely different levels IMO.
Given the choice i'd obviously much prefer to keep Windy and get Flanders as well.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Toyota Camrys are great reliable vehicles. They might not be able to reach the heights of an expensive sports car but they are good for the price. However, I will feel slightly more negative about a Camry if I was trying to be sold one for $90,000.

 

[Aussieviking1]

Billings had all the tools to become a very good player, and whilst his 2017 and 2019 seasons were excellent, he never put multiple good seasons together (possibly due to constantly dealing with injuries and lacking that bit of mongrel).

He comes from an elite gene pool - his younger sister is the 2nd fastest Australian 800m runner of all time (and is still improving) - so Jack will always be remembered as one of those "if only" players.

Actually watched him in the game against Frankston Saturday night and was a class above everyone else. Elite kicking and just seemed to always have time to set players up and run to positions before everyone else. What a shame wasn't that level at the highest grade. Not sure what Melb do with him.

 

[phantom13]

Flanders (IMO) is a better footballer. If it's a straight up choice between Flanders and Windy, I take Flanders every time. Stupid sexy is extremely composed and uses the ball really well. Completely different levels IMO.
Given the choice i'd obviously much prefer to keep Windy and get Flanders as well.

This is kind of the crux of it for me.

We have to be getting guys in and keeping our talent.

If all we lose this period is Roma and Windy but get the rest in then its unquestionably a great outcome but alot ot play out yet.