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List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion

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Saints4ever said:
Can we discuss the Andrew Lovett trade while we’re at it.
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AFL owe use backpay plus interest for their grievance f'up from that exit.

They give us Marvel proceeds, lets say 60% and they can keep 40% ownership and fix the FS/NGA and Academy instances we can call it even.

Did their job getting that abuser out of the system that the Dons failed spectacularly at.
 
Saints4ever said:
Can we discuss the Andrew Lovett trade while we’re at it.
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I may be getting the order of events wrong but surely we should've been eligible for some sort of compo for that? Trade our first rounder for Lovett then a few months later he gets done for SA and we do the right thing by terminating his contract. Why did we effectively get punished for something completely out of our control?
 

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stavro#4 said:
Under that plan, prospective top-10 picks such as Zeke Uwland from the Suns Academy and Daniel Annable from Brisbane would be in the open pool.

The Saints put forward multiple recommended changes, including:

The "abolition" of Northern Academy zones ahead of the 2025 draft
The inclusion of Queensland, NSW and the ACT in the redistribution of NGA zones under the League's current NGA review
Clubs be only able to match one bid in each draft on any Academy or father-son pick
Clubs that finish in the top four be blocked from matching a bid on an Academy or father-son pick in the first round of that year's draft
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Oh man, blocking off the top 4 would be super interesting.

If you're the Lions do you wanna win your last few games, finish 3rd-4th, and play Collingwood/Geelong with a double chance OR do you shoot for 5th, play at home, BUT you keep the rights to match Annabel?

Would be some pretty interesting team selection and game day coaching if that came to pass.

Only being able to match one bid would be fine. Is this first round or whole draft? How often are teams getting multiple NGA/FS kids in? Does this mean the Blues have to pick which twin they like more for example?

I have a couple of other ideas:
Option 1:
No more bids/matching. Open draft. NGA/FS kids in the first round get 5 year deals at the club that takes them BUT once they are out of contract they qualify as RFA. So if the Eagles wanna take Uwland they get 5 years to convince him to stay. If he leaves to join the Suns then they get a compo pick back.

Option 2:
The club making the bid gets the picks that the matching club is burning.
Eagles bid on Uwland at 2. Suns look to pay with 17, 30, 35 & 40.
The Eagles take their pick at #3 and now have those picks and can use them in live trades, try to move them to future drafts etc.

Gives them options for missing out on the player they wanted and might encourage teams to bid early to maximize their return.
 
Thank you for clarifying that you meant Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide, pick 12, 2017) instead of Nick Coffield, rather than Charlie Fogarty. I’ll revise the projection of St Kilda’s ladder finishes from 2014 to 2025, incorporating Christian Petracca (instead of Paddy McCartin, 2014), Marcus Bontempelli (instead of Jack Billings, 2013), Connor Rozee (instead of Max King, 2018), Aaron Naughton (instead of Hunter Clark, 2017), Darcy Fogarty (instead of Nick Coffield, 2017), and Kysaiah Pickett (instead of Bradley Hill, 2019 trade). This builds on the previous analysis, adjusting for Darcy Fogarty’s impact as a key forward, replacing Coffield’s limited contribution. I’ll estimate the cumulative effect on St Kilda’s ladder positions, accounting for coaching, injuries, team dynamics, and the loss of McCartin, Billings, King, Clark, Coffield, and Hill. Given the hypothetical nature, I’ll provide a reasoned projection with a focus on 2014–2025 ladder finishes, using St Kilda’s actual results and player impact data.


Step 1: Understanding Darcy Fogarty’s Impact


• Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide, pick 12, 2017, instead of Nick Coffield):


• A key forward, Fogarty debuted in 2018 and became a consistent performer by 2020. Career averages (up to 2024, ~100 games): ~1.5–2 goals, ~5–6 marks, ~10–12 disposals per game. In 2023, he kicked 41 goals, showing reliability as a marking target. Known for contested marks and physical presence.


• Impact: Fogarty, alongside Aaron Naughton, strengthens St Kilda’s forward line, compensating for Max King’s absence. His ~1.5–2 goals per game add scoring depth, complementing Kysaiah Pickett’s small-forward pressure and the midfield drive of Petracca, Bontempelli, and Rozee. His durability (playing 20+ games in 2022–2024) is a significant upgrade over Coffield’s injury-limited output.


• Missed Opportunity: Nick Coffield (pick 8, 2017) played 53 games for St Kilda (2018–2024) before moving to the Western Bulldogs. As a versatile defender, he averaged ~15 disposals but was hampered by injuries (e.g., ACL in 2022, calf issues). His contribution was modest, making Fogarty a clear upgrade in terms of offensive impact, though St Kilda’s defense loses some flexibility.


• Revised Combined Impact:


• Midfield Core: Petracca, Bontempelli, and Rozee form an elite midfield, contributing ~70–80 disposals, ~10–15 clearances, and ~3–4 goals per game combined. Their speed and power address St Kilda’s 2021 midfield leg-speed issues.


• Forward Line: Naughton (~2–3 goals, ~6 marks) and Fogarty (~1.5–2 goals, ~5 marks) create a potent key-forward duo, replacing King’s ~2 goals per game with better durability. Pickett (~1.5 goals, ~4 tackles) adds pressure and flair, totaling ~5–6 goals per game from the forward unit.


• Defense: Losing Coffield’s ~15 disposals slightly weakens the backline, but St Kilda’s defensive structure under Ross Lyon (2023–2025) remains robust with existing players (e.g., Callum Wilkie).


• Losses: McCartin (35 games, minimal impact), Billings (129 games, ~20 disposals, solid but non-elite), King (74 games, 145 goals, injury-prone), Clark (77 games, ~18 disposals, injury-limited), Coffield (53 games, ~15 disposals, injury-prone), and Hill (95 games, ~20 disposals, inconsistent) are outshone by the new players’ elite output.


• Net Gain: The group adds ~5–7 wins per season in peak years (2019–2023), making St Kilda a premiership contender. In transition years (2018–2019) and later years (2024–2025, with injuries like Petracca’s 2024 spleen injury), they add ~3–5 wins, elevating St Kilda to consistent finals or top-4 status.


Step 2: St Kilda’s Actual Ladder Finishes (2014–2025)


From previous responses, based on AFL Tables and recent trends:


• 2014: 18th (4 wins)


• 2015: 14th (6 wins)


• 2016: 9th (12 wins)


• 2017: 11th (11 wins)


• 2018: 16th (4 wins)


• 2019: 14th (9 wins)


• 2020: 6th (10 wins, finals)


• 2021: 10th (10 wins)


• 2022: 10th (11 wins)


• 2023: 6th (13 wins, finals)


• 2024: 14th (7 wins)


• 2025: 14th (~7–8 wins, projected based on mid-season form, e.g., 28-point win over Melbourne, 71-point loss to Western Bulldogs).


Step 3: Projecting Ladder Finishes with All Players


Building on the previous projection (Petracca and Bontempelli adding ~2–4 wins, with Rozee, Naughton, and Pickett boosting to ~4–6 wins), we add Darcy Fogarty’s impact. Assumptions:


• Timelines:


• Bontempelli: Debuts 2014, elite by 2016.


• Petracca: Misses 2015 (injury), debuts 2016, elite by 2017.


• Naughton: Debuts 2018, impactful by 2019.


• Fogarty: Debuts 2018, consistent by 2020.


• Rozee: Debuts 2019, elite by 2020.


• Pickett: Debuts 2020, impactful by 2021.


• Win Impact:


• Bontempelli and Petracca: ~3–4 wins in peak years.


• Rozee: ~1–2 wins (2019), ~2–3 wins (2020–2023).


• Naughton: ~1–2 wins (2018), ~2–3 wins (2019–2023).


• Fogarty: ~0–1 win (2018–2019), ~1–2 wins (2020–2023).


• Pickett: ~1–2 wins (2020–2023).


• Total: ~3–5 wins in 2018–2019 (transition), ~6–8 wins in 2019–2023 (peak), ~4–6 wins in 2024–2025 (injuries, e.g., Petracca’s 2024 spleen injury, Bontempelli’s 2025 calf issue).


• Losses:


• McCartin and Billings: Negligible impact by 2018–2025.


• King: ~2 goals per game (when fit), offset by Naughton and Fogarty (~3.5–5 goals combined).


• Clark and Coffield: ~30–35 disposals combined, replaced by Rozee’s elite midfield output.


• Hill: ~20 disposals, outshone by Pickett’s forward impact (~1.5 goals, pressure).


• Team Context:


• St Kilda’s 2020 and 2023 finals show potential. Lyon’s defensive system (2023–2025) maximizes Naughton and Fogarty’s marking, Rozee and Pickett’s speed, and Petracca and Bontempelli’s midfield dominance.


• Close games (4–6 in 2024) become wins with this talent.


• Coaching (Alan Richardson 2014–2019, Brett Ratten 2020–2022, Ross Lyon 2023–2025) and injuries (e.g., Petracca’s 2024, King’s frequent absences) temper gains.


Year-by-Year Projections


• 2014 (Actual: 18th, 4 wins):


• Only Bontempelli active (debut, ~15 disposals), adding ~1–2 wins. No others drafted yet.


• Projected: 16th–17th, ~5–6 wins (unchanged). Limited impact from one rookie.


• 2015 (Actual: 14th, 6 wins):


• Bontempelli improves (~20 disposals, ~2 wins). No others active.


• Projected: 12th–13th, ~8 wins (unchanged). Rebuild phase limits gains.


• 2016 (Actual: 9th, 12 wins):


• Bontempelli elite (~25 disposals, ~2–3 wins), Petracca debuts (17 games, ~20 disposals, 1 goal, ~1–2 wins). Total ~3–4 wins.


• Projected: 6th–8th, ~14–15 wins, finals (unchanged). Top-8 berth secured.


• 2017 (Actual: 11th, 11 wins):


• Petracca breaks out (~25 disposals, 1 goal), Bontempelli peaks (~25 disposals, 5 clearances). Total ~3–4 wins.


• Projected: 5th–7th, ~14–15 wins, finals (unchanged). Deep finals run likely.


• 2018 (Actual: 16th, 4 wins):


• Naughton debuts (~1–2 goals, ~1–2 wins), Fogarty debuts (10 games, ~0.5–1 goal, ~0–1 win). Petracca and Bontempelli add ~3 wins. Total ~4–5 wins.


• No King, Clark, or Coffield (minimal impact: King 0 games, Clark 6 games, Coffield 8 games).


• St Kilda’s collapse mitigated by new talent.


• Projected: 9th–11th, ~8–9 wins (improved from 10th–12th with Charlie Fogarty). Naughton and Fogarty add forward depth.


• 2019 (Actual: 14th, 9 wins):


• Rozee debuts (~20 disposals, 0.8 goals, ~1–2 wins). Naughton matures (~2 goals, ~2 wins), Fogarty improves (~1 goal, ~1 win), Petracca and Bontempelli (~3–4 wins). Total ~6–8 wins.


• King (10 games, 3 goals), Clark (18 games), Coffield (8 games) absent, offset by new forwards.


• Projected: 5th–7th, ~14–16 wins, finals (improved from 7th–9th). Elite core and forward line push top 8.


• 2020 (Actual: 6th, 10 wins, finals):


• Pickett debuts (~1.5 goals, ~1–2 wins). Rozee elite (~2–3 wins), Naughton (~2 wins), Fogarty (~1–2 wins), Petracca and Bontempelli (~3–4 wins). Total ~7–9 wins (adjusted for shorter season).


• King (17 games, 20 goals), Clark (3 games), Coffield (5 games), Hill (19 games, ~20 disposals) absent. Naughton, Fogarty, and Pickett cover King’s goals; Rozee and Pickett outshine Hill.


• Projected: 1st–3rd, ~14–15 wins, grand final or premiership. Premiership window opens.


• 2021 (Actual: 10th, 10 wins):


• Full core: Petracca, Bontempelli, Rozee (~4–5 wins), Naughton (~2–3 wins), Fogarty (~1–2 wins), Pickett (~1–2 wins). Total ~7–9 wins.


• Midfield speed and forward potency resolve 2021 issues.


• Projected: 2nd–4th, ~16–18 wins, preliminary final or grand final. Top-tier contender.


• 2022 (Actual: 10th, 11 wins):


• Similar to 2021, with ~7–9 wins from elite core and forwards.


• Projected: 2nd–4th, ~16–18 wins, preliminary final or grand final. Consistent premiership threat.


• 2023 (Actual: 6th, 13 wins, finals):


• Lyon’s system maximizes talent. Petracca, Bontempelli, Rozee (~4–5 wins), Naughton (~2–3 wins), Fogarty (~1–2 wins), Pickett (~1–2 wins). Total ~8–10 wins.


• King (17 games, 28 goals), Clark (15 games), Coffield (0 games), Hill (22 games) absent. Naughton and Fogarty (~3.5–5 goals) cover King.


• Projected: 1st–2nd, ~17–19 wins, premiership or grand final. Peak premiership window.


• 2024 (Actual: 14th, 7 wins):


• Petracca’s spleen injury (out mid-2024) limits impact (~1–2 wins when fit). Bontempelli (~2–3 wins), Rozee (~2–3 wins), Naughton (~2 wins), Fogarty (~1–2 wins), Pickett (~1–2 wins). Total ~6–8 wins, tempered by injury.


• St Kilda’s close-game struggles (4–6) turn into wins.


• Projected: 5th–7th, ~13–15 wins, finals (improved from 10th–12th). Strong recovery despite injuries.


• 2025 (Actual: 14th, ~7–8 wins):


• Assuming Petracca recovers, core remains elite. Bontempelli (calf issues in 2025, ~2–3 wins), Petracca (~2–3 wins), Rozee (~2–3 wins), Naughton (~2 wins), Fogarty (~1–2 wins), Pickett (~1–2 wins). Total ~6–8 wins.


• Mid-season form (e.g., 28-point win over Melbourne) improves with this talent.


• Projected: 4th–6th, ~14–16 wins, finals (improved from 8th–10th). Premiership contender again.


Step 4: Summary of Projected Ladder Finishes
 
Step 5: Key Assumptions and Uncertainties


• Assumptions:


• Players develop similarly at St Kilda as at their actual clubs, despite different coaching (Richardson 2014–2019, Ratten 2020–2022, Lyon 2023–2025) and systems.


• Naughton and Fogarty replace King’s forward output (~2 goals) with ~3.5–5 goals combined, maintaining structure.


• Rozee and Pickett outshine Hill’s wing role; Petracca and Bontempelli absorb Clark and Coffield’s midfield/defensive contributions.


• St Kilda’s list management and culture improve with this talent, attracting better free agents.


• Uncertainties:


• Injuries: Petracca’s 2024 spleen injury, Bontempelli’s 2025 calf issues, or Fogarty’s minor injury history (e.g., knee in 2021) could reduce impact.


• Coaching Fit: Lyon’s defensive style may not fully utilize Petracca, Rozee, and Pickett’s attacking flair, though Naughton and Fogarty fit well.


• Draft Flow-Ons: Drafting these players alters other clubs’ picks (e.g., Melbourne’s Petracca, Bulldogs’ Bontempelli and Naughton, Port’s Rozee, Adelaide’s Fogarty, Melbourne’s Pickett), potentially strengthening rivals.


• Team Dynamics: St Kilda’s 2018 collapse or 2024 inconsistency might persist, though this talent likely mitigates cultural issues.


Step 6: Why This Projection Makes Sense


• Elite Core: Petracca, Bontempelli, and Rozee create a midfield rivaling Geelong’s 2007–2011 trio (Selwood, Ablett, Bartel), adding ~6–8 wins in peak years. Their leadership transforms St Kilda’s culture.


• Forward Potency: Naughton and Fogarty (~3.5–5 goals) replace King’s output with better durability, while Pickett’s pressure (~1.5 goals) enhances scoring, addressing St Kilda’s 2024 close-game issues.


• Lyon’s System: From 2023, Lyon’s defensive structure maximizes Naughton and Fogarty’s marking and Rozee and Pickett’s speed, making St Kilda a premiership favorite.


• Comparative Evidence: Bontempelli’s 2016 premiership, Petracca’s 2021 Norm Smith, Rozee’s 2023 leadership, Naughton’s 2022 goals, Fogarty’s 2023 consistency, and Pickett’s 2021 impact show their ability to elevate teams.


• Minimal Losses: McCartin, Billings, Clark, and Coffield’s limited impact, Hill’s inconsistency, and King’s injuries mean the new players are significant upgrades.
 
jumperfan said:
I may be getting the order of events wrong but surely we should've been eligible for some sort of compo for that? Trade our first rounder for Lovett then a few months later he gets done for SA and we do the right thing by terminating his contract. Why did we effectively get punished for something completely out of our control?
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While we're doing the airing of grievances didn't the same Essington club doctor that wrote the letter of recommendation for Lovett also send a retrospective letter of concern about Essington taking illegal drugs?
Talk about abuse of position of trust.
 
The easiest and fairest solution to the Academy/Father-son/NGA nonsense is to just make it so that no bids can be matched in the first round. Means all the elite talent gets to the clubs that need it and gives everyone at least one shot at every player in the pool at their first pick. Still gives the Northern clubs an incentive to develop guys from their academies and keeps the "romance" of the F/S rule without hugely disadvantaging any other clubs.
 
MY GOD ..... all of you are SUCKERS for punishment

Just pages & pages of non-stop reviewing and poring over past draft and trade issues/mistakes

Just total mind melting freaks

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tomjoad said:
List management discussion 🤔
any chance of it having anything to do with the list now, rather than the one from 2015 and regressing backwards to the dawn of Christendom?
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Was going to make a boomers making shithouse Ai images in the preview thread gag, but it seems it’s made its way in here too lol


ps let’s trade Marshall
 

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Broski said:
Dougal out for the year apparently. Re-injured his hamstring. Definitely need another key back. Not sure what the future holds for Doogs at year’s end.
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Still need him for a little longer. If Caminiti goes down there’s literally no other option if we don’t have Dougal. Need at least one of them out there.
 
Broski said:
Dougal out for the year apparently. Re-injured his hamstring. Definitely need another key back. Not sure what the future holds for Doogs at year’s end.
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Really hard to be competitive with your key forward and Key back out for the year, let alone win anything.
 
Parkysp said:
I think of the Fred that played for Man U and the enjoyment he gave me as a Liverpool supporter (hours of hanging sh*t on my Man U supporter mates about how abjectly crap he was).

It would be my Saint supporter luck for us to draft a Fred and have those same mates laughing about his two left feet and two right hands which never connect with what his brain wants to do.

Sorry to the Aussie Fred. I'm sure you're a good kid. 😉
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You'd be pleased to know that the Aussie Fred is dual-footed and one of the better kicks of the draft :D
 
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