2025 - Moneyball

Remove this Banner Ad

KillaKanga

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 9, 2011
6,057
6,701
If I'm online I'm at work!
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Boston CelticsRedSoxBruins
Not even sure I'll post this but I'll do some research and see if it's got legs.

I'm having a look at scoring and a moneyball approach to our rise up the ladder in '25.

1737262005579.png

A separate post could look at lowering our Points Against to under 2000.

But looking at Points Scored we sat in the bottom 3 bracket.

The bracket 9th - 15 all scored 1700-1900s. They all sat pretty close to 100% bar Freo who were unlucky to miss finals.

The top 8 bracket all scored >2000 and kept their PA to <2000.

It's 'Once upon a time' fantasyland to expect us to be top 8. But our goal should be to sit in the 9th-15th bracket. Winning close games, holding onto leads will dictate if we're closer to 9th or 15th.

What I'm getting at is we need to be aiming at scoring 1900 points.

1737262826607.png

To me that looks like 260-270 goals. So unless our accuracy continues to be league best that means about 20~ more goals over the season.

Where are they likely to come from??

1737263049401.png

2024​
2025​
Larkey, Nick
48​
50​
Jack Darling
15​
Curtis, Paul
30​
35​
Zurhaar, Cameron
29​
35​
Ford, Eddie
15​
10​
Sheezel, Harry
14​
25​
Davies-Uniacke, Luke
11​
15​
Simpkin, Jy
11​
15​
Powell, Tom
9​
15​
Duursma, Zane
9​
10​
Luke Parker
10​
Teakle, Brynn
9​
5​
Xerri, Tristan
8​
5​
Stephenson, Jaidyn
8​
XXXX
Wardlaw, George
7​
10​
Pink, Toby
7​
0​
Scott, Bailey
5​
0​
Shiels, Liam
4​
XXXX
Hansen, Robert
4​
5​
Tucker, Darcy
3​
0​
Comben, Charlie
3​
5​
Taylor, Curtis
3​
XXXX
Drury, Blake
3​
XXXX
Phillips, Will
2​
0​
Lazzaro, Charlie
2​
XXXX
Dawson, Kallan
1​
0​
Greenwood, Hugh
1​
XXXX
Fisher, Zac
0​
0​
McKercher, Colby
0​
5​
246​
270​

I feel this is a reasonable array of production. Zuurhar/PC/Sheezel are integral, as is the overall combined production of the rotating mid/fwds.

If LDU/Jy/ Powell/Parker/Mckercher/Wardlaw can combine for 70 that would be huge towards us tickling the balls of the 8. That's only 11.6 goals each. Parker kicked 14 from 10 games last year.
That'd mean LDU +4 more than '24
Jy +4
Powell +6
Parker -4
McKercker +5
Wardlaw +3

We don't need anyone to triple their output, just incremental growth from the group.

Maybe I'm way off but if our defense can tighten up and we improve our output from 70 points a game to 82 we'll be in the mix if we can win some close ones and hold leads.

Okay, let the roasting begin!!!
 
It's a great starting point to judge how the team has improved, both on offence and defence.

The offence should look to score 100 points a game - no team averaged that all of last season so that is a stretch target for sure. How close can we realistically get to that, without compromising the worst defence in the league any further? I think 1800 PF across the season should be the floor for what is considered a "pass", with the aim to be 1900 PF, and a strecth target of 2000 PF.

The other key metric within the stats is that we are by far and away the most accurate team, in no small part because our spearhead is one of the most accurate kicks for goal ever. Our forwards consistently take their chances and nail goals that a lot of other teams don't, so I think we only need to see a small uptick in F50 entries, along with some polish on how the ball gets in there, and we can hit that 1900 mark pretty easily.

The real issue, which might get discussedin the proposed other post, is the defence...There's no other word for how bad it was in 2024 than diabolical. 2550 against is just too much. That number has to get down to the 1900s before we can realistically see the Top 8.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

i have a very very loose concept of moneyball and baseball, so this may be complete crap.

But, would the moneyball approach be more akin to inside 50's is to goals like getting on base is to home runs?

As a loose equivalence, yeah something along the lines of I50s or centre bounce clearances would be the equivalent 'on-base' metric.
 
i have a very very loose concept of moneyball and baseball, so this may be complete crap.

But, would the moneyball approach be more akin to inside 50's is to goals like getting on base is to home runs?
Absolutely.

But I would go further saying it's whether the forward themselves can get enough shots on goal in order kick them as opposed to just getting the inside 50.
 
i have a very very loose concept of moneyball and baseball, so this may be complete crap.

But, would the moneyball approach be more akin to inside 50's is to goals like getting on base is to home runs?
You could geek out and table i50s. goal assists, scoring chains and a whole bunch of stats.

I was looking at the simple/lazy end point of goals kicked.
 
Not even sure I'll post this but I'll do some research and see if it's got legs.

I'm having a look at scoring and a moneyball approach to our rise up the ladder in '25.

View attachment 2206926

A separate post could look at lowering our Points Against to under 2000.

But looking at Points Scored we sat in the bottom 3 bracket.

The bracket 9th - 15 all scored 1700-1900s. They all sat pretty close to 100% bar Freo who were unlucky to miss finals.

The top 8 bracket all scored >2000 and kept their PA to <2000.

It's 'Once upon a time' fantasyland to expect us to be top 8. But our goal should be to sit in the 9th-15th bracket. Winning close games, holding onto leads will dictate if we're closer to 9th or 15th.

What I'm getting at is we need to be aiming at scoring 1900 points.

View attachment 2206931

To me that looks like 260-270 goals. So unless our accuracy continues to be league best that means about 20~ more goals over the season.

Where are they likely to come from??

View attachment 2206933

2024​
2025​
Larkey, Nick
48​
50​
Jack Darling
15​
Curtis, Paul
30​
35​
Zurhaar, Cameron
29​
35​
Ford, Eddie
15​
10​
Sheezel, Harry
14​
25​
Davies-Uniacke, Luke
11​
15​
Simpkin, Jy
11​
15​
Powell, Tom
9​
15​
Duursma, Zane
9​
10​
Luke Parker
10​
Teakle, Brynn
9​
5​
Xerri, Tristan
8​
5​
Stephenson, Jaidyn
8​
XXXX
Wardlaw, George
7​
10​
Pink, Toby
7​
0​
Scott, Bailey
5​
0​
Shiels, Liam
4​
XXXX
Hansen, Robert
4​
5​
Tucker, Darcy
3​
0​
Comben, Charlie
3​
5​
Taylor, Curtis
3​
XXXX
Drury, Blake
3​
XXXX
Phillips, Will
2​
0​
Lazzaro, Charlie
2​
XXXX
Dawson, Kallan
1​
0​
Greenwood, Hugh
1​
XXXX
Fisher, Zac
0​
0​
McKercher, Colby
0​
5​
246​
270​

I feel this is a reasonable array of production. Zuurhar/PC/Sheezel are integral, as is the overall combined production of the rotating mid/fwds.

If LDU/Jy/ Powell/Parker/Mckercher/Wardlaw can combine for 70 that would be huge towards us tickling the balls of the 8. That's only 11.6 goals each. Parker kicked 14 from 10 games last year.
That'd mean LDU +4 more than '24
Jy +4
Powell +6
Parker -4
McKercker +5
Wardlaw +3

We don't need anyone to triple their output, just incremental growth from the group.

Maybe I'm way off but if our defense can tighten up and we improve our output from 70 points a game to 82 we'll be in the mix if we can win some close ones and hold leads.

Okay, let the roasting begin!!!
Wow can't believe you posted something like this because a few weeks ago I had a similar thought. So similar infact that I wrote down the following list in the Notes app on my phone back in early December (wasn't going to post it when I tabled it up, but now I've got a use for it thanks to your thread haha):

Larkey - 50
Darling - 15
Comben (if he plays forward) - 15
Zurhaar - 35
Curtis - 35
Parker - 10
Sheezel - 15

Other KPPs (Teakle, Xerri, Maley?, CCJ?) - 15
Other Fwds (Duursma, Ford, RHJ, Konstanty) - 30
Mids (LDU, Simpkin, Scott, Powell, Wardlaw, McKercher, Tucker, FOS)
- 55

Total: 275

First off, my totals for our main forwards match yours bar Sheezel, which I think is pretty funny!

We get to 275 goals but with Comben looking like playing down back, the estimation goes down to 260. And I feel like I went semi conservative with the predictions (maybe fractionally overs with Zoo and PC).

In any case, I'm hoping with the addition of the mature players, another year into our young guns, another year of conditioning amongst the group, and another year to consolidate our game style, we'll be able to hit that target offensively. Which hopefully should translate to a better win loss record (please please please for the love of god!).
 
Not even sure I'll post this but I'll do some research and see if it's got legs.

I'm having a look at scoring and a moneyball approach to our rise up the ladder in '25.

View attachment 2206926

A separate post could look at lowering our Points Against to under 2000.

But looking at Points Scored we sat in the bottom 3 bracket.

The bracket 9th - 15 all scored 1700-1900s. They all sat pretty close to 100% bar Freo who were unlucky to miss finals.

The top 8 bracket all scored >2000 and kept their PA to <2000.

It's 'Once upon a time' fantasyland to expect us to be top 8. But our goal should be to sit in the 9th-15th bracket. Winning close games, holding onto leads will dictate if we're closer to 9th or 15th.

What I'm getting at is we need to be aiming at scoring 1900 points.

View attachment 2206931

To me that looks like 260-270 goals. So unless our accuracy continues to be league best that means about 20~ more goals over the season.

Where are they likely to come from??

View attachment 2206933

2024​
2025​
Larkey, Nick
48​
50​
Jack Darling
15​
Curtis, Paul
30​
35​
Zurhaar, Cameron
29​
35​
Ford, Eddie
15​
10​
Sheezel, Harry
14​
25​
Davies-Uniacke, Luke
11​
15​
Simpkin, Jy
11​
15​
Powell, Tom
9​
15​
Duursma, Zane
9​
10​
Luke Parker
10​
Teakle, Brynn
9​
5​
Xerri, Tristan
8​
5​
Stephenson, Jaidyn
8​
XXXX
Wardlaw, George
7​
10​
Pink, Toby
7​
0​
Scott, Bailey
5​
0​
Shiels, Liam
4​
XXXX
Hansen, Robert
4​
5​
Tucker, Darcy
3​
0​
Comben, Charlie
3​
5​
Taylor, Curtis
3​
XXXX
Drury, Blake
3​
XXXX
Phillips, Will
2​
0​
Lazzaro, Charlie
2​
XXXX
Dawson, Kallan
1​
0​
Greenwood, Hugh
1​
XXXX
Fisher, Zac
0​
0​
McKercher, Colby
0​
5​
246​
270​

I feel this is a reasonable array of production. Zuurhar/PC/Sheezel are integral, as is the overall combined production of the rotating mid/fwds.

If LDU/Jy/ Powell/Parker/Mckercher/Wardlaw can combine for 70 that would be huge towards us tickling the balls of the 8. That's only 11.6 goals each. Parker kicked 14 from 10 games last year.
That'd mean LDU +4 more than '24
Jy +4
Powell +6
Parker -4
McKercker +5
Wardlaw +3

We don't need anyone to triple their output, just incremental growth from the group.

Maybe I'm way off but if our defense can tighten up and we improve our output from 70 points a game to 82 we'll be in the mix if we can win some close ones and hold leads.

Okay, let the roasting begin!!!
I think we’ll improve significantly this year, to the tune of about 4 goals a game. Not sure how that would come in terms of more goals for and less goals against, but if it’s split evenly it would be:

23 games x 4 goals x 6 pts pg = 552 / 2 = 276 up / down

2024 For + 276 = 1,895
2024 Against - 276 = 2,274

2025 % of 1,895 / 2,274 = 83.33%

That would still be the 3rd worst % in 2024, but it is a 20% increase on ours which is pretty big improvement. Achievable though IMO.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

As far as ~20 goals go, I think the metric could be a Paul Curtis.

Any one of our players could go to another level in terms of goals and goal assists.

Guys like Curtis and Sheezel could easily explode with their own improvement, along with an improved inside 50 count and depth from team improvement.

We have also added Parker, so as Sydney and Port showed, mids kick goals in good teams.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

2025 - Moneyball

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top