
- Feb 9, 2011
- 6,057
- 6,701
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Boston CelticsRedSoxBruins
Not even sure I'll post this but I'll do some research and see if it's got legs.
I'm having a look at scoring and a moneyball approach to our rise up the ladder in '25.
A separate post could look at lowering our Points Against to under 2000.
But looking at Points Scored we sat in the bottom 3 bracket.
The bracket 9th - 15 all scored 1700-1900s. They all sat pretty close to 100% bar Freo who were unlucky to miss finals.
The top 8 bracket all scored >2000 and kept their PA to <2000.
It's 'Once upon a time' fantasyland to expect us to be top 8. But our goal should be to sit in the 9th-15th bracket. Winning close games, holding onto leads will dictate if we're closer to 9th or 15th.
What I'm getting at is we need to be aiming at scoring 1900 points.
To me that looks like 260-270 goals. So unless our accuracy continues to be league best that means about 20~ more goals over the season.
Where are they likely to come from??
I feel this is a reasonable array of production. Zuurhar/PC/Sheezel are integral, as is the overall combined production of the rotating mid/fwds.
If LDU/Jy/ Powell/Parker/Mckercher/Wardlaw can combine for 70 that would be huge towards us tickling the balls of the 8. That's only 11.6 goals each. Parker kicked 14 from 10 games last year.
That'd mean LDU +4 more than '24
Jy +4
Powell +6
Parker -4
McKercker +5
Wardlaw +3
We don't need anyone to triple their output, just incremental growth from the group.
Maybe I'm way off but if our defense can tighten up and we improve our output from 70 points a game to 82 we'll be in the mix if we can win some close ones and hold leads.
Okay, let the roasting begin!!!
I'm having a look at scoring and a moneyball approach to our rise up the ladder in '25.

A separate post could look at lowering our Points Against to under 2000.
But looking at Points Scored we sat in the bottom 3 bracket.
The bracket 9th - 15 all scored 1700-1900s. They all sat pretty close to 100% bar Freo who were unlucky to miss finals.
The top 8 bracket all scored >2000 and kept their PA to <2000.
It's 'Once upon a time' fantasyland to expect us to be top 8. But our goal should be to sit in the 9th-15th bracket. Winning close games, holding onto leads will dictate if we're closer to 9th or 15th.
What I'm getting at is we need to be aiming at scoring 1900 points.

To me that looks like 260-270 goals. So unless our accuracy continues to be league best that means about 20~ more goals over the season.
Where are they likely to come from??

2024 | 2025 | |
Larkey, Nick | 48 | 50 |
Jack Darling | 15 | |
Curtis, Paul | 30 | 35 |
Zurhaar, Cameron | 29 | 35 |
Ford, Eddie | 15 | 10 |
Sheezel, Harry | 14 | 25 |
Davies-Uniacke, Luke | 11 | 15 |
Simpkin, Jy | 11 | 15 |
Powell, Tom | 9 | 15 |
Duursma, Zane | 9 | 10 |
Luke Parker | 10 | |
Teakle, Brynn | 9 | 5 |
Xerri, Tristan | 8 | 5 |
Stephenson, Jaidyn | 8 | XXXX |
Wardlaw, George | 7 | 10 |
Pink, Toby | 7 | 0 |
Scott, Bailey | 5 | 0 |
Shiels, Liam | 4 | XXXX |
Hansen, Robert | 4 | 5 |
Tucker, Darcy | 3 | 0 |
Comben, Charlie | 3 | 5 |
Taylor, Curtis | 3 | XXXX |
Drury, Blake | 3 | XXXX |
Phillips, Will | 2 | 0 |
Lazzaro, Charlie | 2 | XXXX |
Dawson, Kallan | 1 | 0 |
Greenwood, Hugh | 1 | XXXX |
Fisher, Zac | 0 | 0 |
McKercher, Colby | 0 | 5 |
246 | 270 |
I feel this is a reasonable array of production. Zuurhar/PC/Sheezel are integral, as is the overall combined production of the rotating mid/fwds.
If LDU/Jy/ Powell/Parker/Mckercher/Wardlaw can combine for 70 that would be huge towards us tickling the balls of the 8. That's only 11.6 goals each. Parker kicked 14 from 10 games last year.
That'd mean LDU +4 more than '24
Jy +4
Powell +6
Parker -4
McKercker +5
Wardlaw +3
We don't need anyone to triple their output, just incremental growth from the group.
Maybe I'm way off but if our defense can tighten up and we improve our output from 70 points a game to 82 we'll be in the mix if we can win some close ones and hold leads.
Okay, let the roasting begin!!!