AFLW 2025 Predictions & Passmarks

[Teen Wolf]

Have at it!

 

[Teen Wolf]

I'm going to start off with passmarks as I see it:


Grand Final

North Melb. - Coming off an undefeated season, anything worse than a close GF loss would be a failure.

Adelaide - Matthew Clarke's last chance to get this team past a PF without The Erin.


Prelim

Brisbane - Post-covid strategy remains: be among top 4 & wait for the others to fall apart with injuries. Not foolish to think it might happen a third time.

Melbourne - Soft fixture for any team, never mind one that was dominating for much of 2023. Leadership changes required if they bomb out for a 3rd straight year.

Geelong - Last season drew with NM, beat Brisbane, narrow loss to Adelaide. All of which suggests 2023 PF was not a fluke, and 2024 was a wasted year... don't want 2 of those in a row.

Fremantle - Tough fixture, but the list makes no sense if they aren't in the vicinity of contending.


Win a final

Port Adelaide - Expect a comedown from last year's magic carpet ride, supplemented somewhat by players returning from injury (or appearing for the first time following injury, namely Lauren Young).

Essendon - 0 finals wins from 2 recent campaigns.

Richmond - Also 0 finals wins from 2 recent campaigns, and this is Ryan Ferguson

Ryan Ferguson

Age

44

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.6

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

4.2

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

4.8

1star

K

2.2

1star

HB

2.6

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

0.8

3star

's 6th season as coach (pretty sure he's OOC by year's end).


Make finals (or at least win 7+ games)

Hawthorn - This year they play Carl, StK, Coll, Geel, Frem, GC--beat all 6 last year. They also get away games vs WB, PA and Ess which are very winnable. Recent trend of teams going out in straight sets & missing finals the next year, so they just need to buck that imo.

Sydney - 4 wins last year, 7 of 12 (inc. finals) the year before. Assume a watered-down Molloy return, gains in other areas should still mean finals is realistic.

St Kilda - The list improves every off-season, but they are still averaging the same couple of no-way-they-should've-lost-that games per year under Dal Santo.


6 wins

Carlton - 4 wins in each of their last 2 seasons. Every home game this year is winnable.

West Coast - 4 wins last year, avoid NM & Bris this year. 7 games in WA.

W. Bulldogs - 4 wins last year (4-4 without Blackburn), avoid NM & Adel this year.


4 wins

Collingwood - Just the 1 win last year in which Davey only played 5 games--even if she misses a bunch again, they should be boosted by Ash Centra and Mattea Breed.

Gold Coast - 1.5 wins last year after a player exodus. I'm not sure Rhyce Shaw

Rhyce Shaw

Age

44

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.8

4star

K

12.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

313.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

1.6

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

and Lily Mithen are good for 2.5 more wins, but they were stiffed by umpires in a couple 2024 games anyway.

GWS Giants - Cam Bernasconi took over a 4-6 team. Since gone 2-8 and then 1-9-1. So a slight bump up to 4-8 is not an unreasonable ask of a coach wanting to stay employed, plus they avoid both NM & Bris this year.

 

[timokane]

Pies i think will be the surprise packet in 2025.
Thinking they are better placed tho next year.
Kind of bottomed out.
Starting to gain some young girls with talent.
A long way to go tho but kind of getting a bit of talent back in the side.
VFLW teams going well at the Pies.
What you could call a good decent handy team.
But AFLW i think be another 2 years.
probably davey brit etc need to retire next year and time to blood kids.
But looking a case of onwards and upwards.
Planting seeds now this year.

 

[Cdog71]

Season results

Melb
Swans

Adel
North Melb
Bris
Tiges
Hawks
Geelong
West Coast
Bulldogs
Essendon
St Kilda
Freo
Carlton
Port
GCoast
Pies
GWS

 

[Teen Wolf]

<2 months till throw up.

My predictions, starting with whether each team will meet the benchmarks as prescribed:


Grand Final

North Melb. Potentially vulnerable during meteor showers and volcanic eruptions though.

Adelaide Not expecting the Hail Mary list moves will pay off, but I don't think that will prevent them from being a top 2 team.


Prelim

Brisbane 4 GFs in a row ought to be a long shot.

Melbourne I'm predicting a bounce back from last year, before losing momentum heading into finals again (a la 2023) with games against Bris and Geel.

Geelong Like the list at full strength, but not convinced some key fitness issues are behind them, so a PF is as far as I'm going for now. A grand final at Kardinia Park would go off though.

Fremantle 2024 was awfully lean in the way of impressive wins, particularly for a team that went 8-3. I think it's more likely they go 3-9 this year, unless there's a guarantee of Bowers returning in fine form and getting through the season unscathed.


Win a final

Port Adelaide Approx. 8-4 and finish 7th. Kinda harsh to call that a failed season, but it'd be 2 steps short of 2024 while Gemma Houghton progresses a year deeper into her 30s.

Essendon I've got them down for just 5 wins atm.

Richmond Expecting a disastrous 2-10 sorta campaign following the departure of Eilish Sheerin. If they're at all decent, it'd probably mean Ellie McKenzie steps up to 20 disp & a goal per game.


Make finals (or at least win 7+ games)

Hawthorn Tipping a 6-win season, but it'll be enough to sneak into finals.

Sydney Have them as the biggest riser this year. H&A top 6 + EF win.

St Kilda Haven't quite lived up to my expectations for 2 years running, so I'm projecting a conservative 4-8 record this time.


6 wins

Carlton Think they'll struggle to find enough on-field leadership and more than 3 wins.

West Coast Relying on Ella Roberts to improve her set shot accuracy.

W. Bulldogs Also only 3 wins, which wouldn't be a total failure if they eradicate the really bad lapses of 2024.


4 wins

Collingwood First two weeks vs Carl & GWS is a good opportunity to see where they're at.

Gold Coast Horrible team for a young KPF to join.

GWS Giants Ok list at full strength, but not convinced some key fitness issues are behind them, so 4 wins is as far as I'm going for now.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I have been developing the most powerful tool in predictive technology since Paul the Octopus, and I will now use it to foresee this year's winners of the league's Goalkicking and B&F medals.

Leading Goalkicker
16% - Danielle Ponter
14% - Tahlia Randall
13% - Aishling Moloney
11% - Alyssa Bannan
10% - Caitlin Gould
9% - Taylor Smith
6% - Eden Zanker
4% - Dakota Davidson
3% - Gemma Houghton
2% - Jasmine Garner
2% - Kate Hore
2% - Chloe Molloy
8% - other

Best & Fairest
21% - Georgie Prespakis
17% - Ashleigh Riddell
15% - Ella Roberts
12% - Ebony Marinoff
8% - Kate Hore
7% - Emily Bates
5% - Ally Anderson
4% - Madison Prespakis
3% - Monique Conti
2% - Anne Hatchard
6% - other

 

[timokane]

For the Pies no real passmarks.
Just win some more games from last time.
Time to develop a winning culture in the AFLW at the Pies.
I think its been our weakest link at the club.
But time to improve now and we can do it.
Kind of slowly and surely we are on the rise in 2025.
I think in 2 years they will be great.
It all takes time

 

[Teen Wolf]

I have been developing the most powerful tool in predictive technology since Paul the Octopus

and I will now use it to determine the outcome of the Rising Star Award:

33% - Lauren Young (PA)
31% - Kaitlyn Srhoj (GWS)
10% - Ash Centra (Coll)
5% - Piper Window (PA)
3% - Zippy Fish (Syd)
2% - Alyssia Pisano (Melb)
2% - Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner (WB)
14% - other

(Hopefully I've inserted all the correct eligibility data into the Crystal Ball 3000.)

 

[CURVE]

A couple of predictions for 2025.

North Melbourne will be the last team to record their 20th defeat. Currently North have 19 defeats, Hawthorn 17 and Essendon 16, all other teams have reached 20, the last being Port Adelaide in last year's Preliminary Final.

Weather permitting, North Melbourne will be the first team to score 1000 points in a season. Last season North scored 811 points in 14 games, despite 4 or 5 being badly affected due to the weather. With clear skies, North will need to average 66.67 points per game in 12 regular season and (hopefully) three finals to reach the four-figure milestone.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Low profile spotlight, part 1

Players who have been around for a few years, haven't attracted much attention, but I'm predicting will step into the spotlight a little more this season.

Adelaide
#6 Hannah Munyard - Goal of the Year aside, she's usually been Maddi Newman's less productive twin out there, and seems to have had more unlucky "almost" sort of days than your average. I was tempted to pick Abbie Ballard on account of recent training pics, but not sure if they're misleading.

Brisbane
#8 Jennifer Dunne - I think a few Brisbane defenders were pretty sloppy last year, and were rewarded for it (in some cases, such as the AA-nominated captain, it can be excused as back pay). By comparison, Dunne was the most reliable in defence imo and didn't receive anywhere near the acclaim. Last season might prove to be her breakout, nevertheless I'm tipping she'll consolidate it this year and start to get more credit.

Carlton
#36 Ciara Fitzgerald - Carlton have a lot of players who either can't kick or won't kick the footy. Fitzgerald is an accurate kick with good vision and composure. Pretty spindly for a 23-24yo, which I wouldn't worry about if she's able to continue last year's late season form of 15 touches per game.

Collingwood
#22 Mikayla Hyde - There's far greater expectation on a lot of other players to come in and/or get fit and help Collingwood up the ladder (your Daveys and Howarths on one had, Centras and Breeds on the other). So it's easy to forget about Hyde who, after 1 game in the black & white, isn't even the most recent Docker to move across. I'm not expecting she'll add big numbers, but perhaps some much needed polish at ground level.

Essendon
#30 Stephanie Wales - My first choice did her ACL last week, so now I'm switching focus to somebody returning from the same injury in late October. Timeframe makes it a tough ask to get back and have any impact, so it's a big call from me.

Fremantle
#31 Gabby Biedenweg-Webster - Without prime Ebony Antonio, this Fremantle list isn't a serious contender. But with a post-prime Ebony Antonio, they were at least a faux contender. Biedenweg-Webster has some pace and a few other surprising tricks to build on, which could make her a worthy replacement for the latter.

 

[timokane]

On the slight rise Collingwood there comes a time i also think its Bri Daveys last aflw i think she will retire and take up a role in the media
Wooden spoon Carlton i think it was coming tho and bottom out still got a few good players like mckay but drops off after that
Grand final North and Freo
Freo will come back to 2022 form just didnt have a good run of injuries 2023 and 2024
Surprise packet Hawks GWS and Dogs
Dees will come off a tad too and kind of the best days like Burch are behind here
Tigers be ok but might be a case of getting worked out now.
Bottom 4 blues cats bombers and swans

 

[Teen Wolf]

Low profile spotlight, part 2

Players who have been around for a few years, haven't attracted much attention, but I'm predicting will step into the spotlight a little more this season.

Geelong
#20 Zali Friswell - More likely another year of steady incremental improvement than a skyrocketing campaign, nevertheless one to keep an eye on.

Gold Coast
#22 Charlotte Wilson - Wouldn't say I'm particularly bullish, but the Suns aren't giving much to work with. After 3 years of nigh-on invisibility, last year was by no means a return to the same player of 2020 (4.5 marks per game) though it suggested such a return was not totally out of the question.

GWS Giants
#23 Madison Brazendale - Bounced back from a sophomore slump and also improved her kicking: gone from 4.6 per game in 2022 at 37% to 6.7 per game at 49% in 2024. Even though such a trajectory is prone to flatten, it's promising enough for a young player who already provides plenty in the way of line-breaking dash.

Hawthorn
#14 Casey Sherriff - Pretty easy pick. Kicked 5.14 in her last two seasons with Melbourne. Rocked up at Hawthorn to find more of the footy and overdue accuracy... until a bunch of busted leg bones disrupted what threatened to be a breakout season of the more desirable kind. Came back late in the year without really firing a shot, could be a different story with another pre-season under the belt.

Melbourne
#1 Georgia Campbell - Based on most of her numbers heading in the right direction while Lauren Pearce's most important number heads in the wrong.

North Melb.
#11 Eliza Shannon - Just the 3 games in a 2024 season of ankle troubles, she finished top 3 in the club's time trial last month.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Low profile spotlight, part 3

Players who have been around for a few years, haven't attracted much attention, but I'm predicting will step into the spotlight a little more this season.

Port Adelaide
#20 Julia Teakle - Port are another team with a lot of well-established entities and a lot of bright young talents, without much in between. Even though the likes of Dowrick and Scholz aren't fully formed yet, we have a strong idea about how their careers will unfold. Turning 22 a couple of days before the start of what will be her 4th season, Teakle has shown glimpses of a tidy key forward albeit while benefitting from the opposition's focus on Houghton and Woodland.

Richmond
#27 Emelia Yassir - Potentially more a wishful-thinking pick, having previously nominated Yassir as a personal low-profile favourite. Pretty much the small forward version of Teakle, in both age and stats, including improved efficiency in 2024 (somewhat out of necessity, since both players got less of the footy than in 2023).

St Kilda
#22 Ashleigh Richards - Continuing the young forward theme, only not, because the super smooth Richards is made for the midfield and this selection is predicated on those credentials being revealed more this year.

Sydney
#12 Lulu Pullar - Managing to forge decent opportunities at Brisbane and North in recent times says something in itself. Little doubt she'll get plenty more opportunity at Sydney, but considering ongoing calf troubles, could also do with a bit of luck.

West Coast
#21 Mikayla Western - 2.9 tackles per game in 2 seasons under Prior lifted to 4.8 per game in her first season under Pearce. For a player who doesn't exactly live at the coalface, I'll take it as a sign of a motivated hard worker who will thrive in the 2nd half of her twenties. EDIT: Western has just been announced as the Eagles' new vice-captain so this pick has already come good??

W. Bulldogs
#15 Sarah Hartwig - Second-most experienced player of the 18 names picked out for this exercise. 49 games wedges her between Sherriff and Munyard, so too her style of play. Distinguishes herself from them via a couple top 10 club B&F finishes, but no top fives yet which renders her profile low enough to include here.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Big Name Barometers

Areas of improvement for these high-profile players are key to optimal team performance.


THE BEST KIND OF ABILITY

Simple one to start with: Geelong and Melbourne need Chloe Scheer and Tayla Harris on the park. Both clubs should be top 8 with their fixtures, but unless these two players head into finals with solid match fitness on the back of healthy H&A campaigns, neither team is a likely premiership threat.

Last year we saw the teams with the harder-edged forward lines send the rest packing. Not just in the grand final and not just by North Melbourne. For instance, Brisbane were on track to lose that QF vs Hawthorn until Cathy Svarc was moved forward. Scheer and Harris bring that same game-changing attack to the contest around goal, when fit and available.


USE IT OR LOSE IT

The further Anne Hatchard's kicking efficiency sinks below 50%, the further the Crows drift away from winning flag number four. Oh for the days when Marinoff's left foot was Adelaide's biggest issue (the difference being her KE% hasn't dropped by 20 points since 2019).

Carlton's new captain Abbie McKay also has to take more responsibility in this facet of the game. Last year she averaged 8.3 kicks vs 12.6 handballs, and still only managed to hit a target by foot 39% of the time.

Montana Ham's 48% kicking efficiency wasn't disastrous for a young player in her 3rd season, though it was down 10% from her first 2 seasons at Sydney. By comparison, Jasmine Fleming has gone up 10% every year, while getting more of it.


FIND THE FOOTY

I've already boldly stated Richmond could do with Ellie McKenzie averaging 20 touches and a goal, knowing it's an unfair or at least premature benchmark (only two players have managed it across an AFLW season). 20 and forget-about-the-goals, though, is a reasonable expectation by now, rather than the winless closing month of 2024 which consisted of 12 possessions up to 18 then down to 15 and back to 12.

Same goes for Tyanna Smith and Jess Fitzgerald. Amazingly, the Saints and Bulldogs are transformed when their two best ball-users get 20+ in a game. It would be nice if their coaches implemented tactics cognisant of this revelation.


UMPIRES BLOW

Ruby Schleicher had the 3rd-worst free kick differential in the league last year, something she also achieved back in 2022 S6. We know the umps suck, partly because a player of her stature usually has to decapitate somebody to get pinged.

Adding to the issue, new teammate Mattea Breed's free kick stat line was also among the AFLW's worst last year. So the Pies really need their B&F winner in Schleicher to clean up this part of her game--she broke even just twice in 2024, one of them being in their sole win.


NO MO' YO-YO

Lily Mithen mustered just 6 and 4 disposals vs genuine contenders Brisbane and Adelaide last year, and typified her team's fadeout vs Freo with only 2 touches in the 2nd half. Her new club on the Gold Coast won't be able to carry such a passenger anywhere near as far as Melbourne did.

Hawthorn's All-Australians of 2024 (Emily Bates not among them) bombed out when games really started to matter. Aileen Gilroy kicked 1 goal in the last month, and Tilly Lucas-Rodd dropped from 21 touches per H&A game to just 16 in the finals.

There aren't many improvements I could think of for the undefeated reigning premiers, so I'm reaching for Tahlia Randall as North's high-profile player. Her worst games last year were in the two close wins against Adelaide, and the draw with Geelong.


GRAB THE GAME BY THE BALL

Nat Grider could have easily been included in the previous category, as Brisbane's crucial intercept defender delivered four games of 1 or fewer marks in 2024, and then a 2-mark 6-disposal stinker in the Grand Final. Compare that to her 2023 premiership campaign and you'll see why the Lions never looked like going back-to-back.

Over at GWS, the work rate of rising star Zarlie Goldsworthy dropped like a bag of dirt from her previous award-winning season, and you can tell by the numbers: 3.3 marks per game down to 1.7. I daresay she could benefit from a combination of more resting time on the bench and a wee bit of an attitude adjustment.

While I don't expect Matilda Scholz to constantly burn opponents on the lead and rack up uncontested marks along the wing, we've all seen Port's ruck has the size and talent to be averaging more than 2024's effort of 1.2 grabs per game (not in the least because she had double that in her debut season).


SCOREBOARD PRESSURE

Sophie Conway is not quicker or more skilled or even a harder worker than Stephanie Cain, but the differential of 24 scoring shots last year can't entirely be attributed to a widening class of teammates. Essendon's go-to winger needs a confidence boost or a total re-education on the position--too often she squanders her own promising build-ups with a timid turnover kick rather than finishing off the work.

Gabby Newton moved to Fremantle but returned to her first-year form of 7 tackles per game, and the days of not kicking goals. Can't have that from a 24yo 175cm no.1 draft pick who is capable on both sides of the body.

And finally, Ella Roberts improved her scoring stats of 2.9 in 2023 to 6.9 in 2024, but this is still a long way off from where West Coast need her to get to, particularly when considering how many of her misses were easy set shots.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Port Adelaide
#20 Julia Teakle - Port are another team with a lot of well-established entities and a lot of bright young talents, without much in between. Even though the likes of Dowrick and Scholz aren't fully formed yet, we have a strong idea about how their careers will unfold. Turning 22 a couple of days before the start of what will be her 4th season, Teakle has shown glimpses of a tidy key forward albeit while benefitting from the opposition's focus on Houghton and Woodland.

Another pick elevated to vice-captaincy since posting!

Not exactly what I had in mind when saying "step into the spotlight more", although I suppose such validations could (and should) translate to on-field performance.

 

[Cdog71]

FIND THE FOOTY

I've already boldly stated Richmond could do with Ellie McKenzie averaging 20 touches and a goal, knowing it's an unfair or at least premature benchmark (only two players have managed it across an AFLW season). 20 and forget-about-the-goals, though, is a reasonable expectation by now, rather than the winless closing month of 2024 which consisted of 12 possessions up to 18 then down to 15 and back to 12.

I think the fwd dynamics need to change at the Tiges, I reckon Fergusen will let her cheat and try and cover for her. I think more scoreboard threats are the way fwd with Ellie and the Tiges rather than the old small pressure fwds idea and hoping for repeat inside 50’s.

The other is KB
Richmond need Grieser more mobile, KB isn’t a stand and wrestle under the ball marking fwd and without another tall Fwd last season the impact of injuries/natural decline to her we lacked options and we had a poor conversion to inside 50 numbers.
Hopefully McKinnon helps, I’d like to see Ellie jumping for marks inside 50.
She could be really difficult to deal with.
We need speed on the flanks, a scoring mid and we need another tall that is a threat.
And Ferg needs to win one final or GTFO

 

[The Nostradamus]

North to go undefeated again

 

[TigermanM2]

I have been developing the most powerful tool in predictive technology since Paul the Octopus, and I will now use it to foresee this year's winners of the league's Goalkicking and B&F medals.



Best & Fairest
21% - Georgie Prespakis
17% - Ashleigh Riddell
15% - Ella Roberts
12% - Ebony Marinoff
8% - Kate Hore
7% - Emily Bates
5% - Ally Anderson
4% - Madison Prespakis
3% - Monique Conti
2% - Anne Hatchard
6% - other

I am puzzled with your rating of Mon Conti for the B & F

Only once in the last 6 seasons has she finished lower than 7th with the last 3 seasons no lower than 4th.

Clearly a standout in pretty much every Tiger match.

2020 equal 7th
2021 equal 7th
2022 S6 equal 10th
2022 S7 2nd
2023 Won
2024 equal 4th.

Additionally, at 25 just entering her prime.

PLUS Sierra Grieves is a Conti lookalike and the umpires are going to think its Conti every time she touches it

3% chance ??? Gobsmacked in fact.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I think the fwd dynamics need to change at the Tiges, I reckon Fergusen will let her cheat and try and cover for her. I think more scoreboard threats are the way fwd with Ellie and the Tiges rather than the old small pressure fwds idea and hoping for repeat inside 50’s.

The other is KB
Richmond need Grieser more mobile, KB isn’t a stand and wrestle under the ball marking fwd and without another tall Fwd last season the impact of injuries/natural decline to her we lacked options and we had a poor conversion to inside 50 numbers.
Hopefully McKinnon helps, I’d like to see Ellie jumping for marks inside 50.
She could be really difficult to deal with.
We need speed on the flanks, a scoring mid and we need another tall that is a threat.
And Ferg needs to win one final or GTFO

Seems to me the drop-off from a 21-point R5 win, down to a 24-point EF loss against the same team, was midfield induced.



Nightmare reading for Richmond when not only considering the age of the Port players who dominated, but also how Conti's only company is no longer there.

I am puzzled with your rating of Mon Conti for the B & F

Only once in the last 6 seasons has she finished lower than 7th with the last 3 seasons no lower than 4th.

Clearly a standout in pretty much every Tiger match.

2020 equal 7th
2021 equal 7th
2022 S6 equal 10th
2022 S7 2nd
2023 Won
2024 equal 4th.

Additionally, at 25 just entering her prime.

3% chance ??? Gobsmacked in fact.

Worth adding her win-loss record in each season:

2020 equal 7th (0-6)
2021 equal 7th (3-5)
2022 S6 equal 10th (3-7)
2022 S7 2nd (7-2-1)
2023 Won (5-5)
2024 equal 4th (6-4-1)

Suggests she isn't going to win if Richmond aren't at least mid-ladder.

So the 3% is more representative of my previously stated prediction for the Tigers without Sheerin (whose arrival "coincided" with the team's improved performance).

 

[TigermanM2]

Seems to me the drop-off from a 21-point R5 win, down to a 24-point EF loss against the same team, was midfield induced.

View attachment 2355627

Nightmare reading for Richmond when not only considering the age of the Port players who dominated, but also how Conti's only company is no longer there.



Worth adding her win-loss record in each season:

2020 equal 7th (0-6)
2021 equal 7th (3-5)
2022 S6 equal 10th (3-7)
2022 S7 2nd (7-2-1)
2023 Won (5-5)
2024 equal 4th (6-4-1)

Suggests she isn't going to win if Richmond aren't at least mid-ladder.

So the 3% is more representative of my previously stated prediction for the Tigers without Sheerin (whose arrival "coincided" with the team's improved performance).

I am not referring to Mon "winning" the B & S. No doubt a lot of things have to go right to win a comp B & F. I am just questioning your rating of her chances.

I simply make these points.

• Giving Mon a 3% change of winning the award is simply outrageous for someone who clearly gets a lot of votes.
• You mention Sheerin was Mon's only midfield company but the year Mon won, Sheerin played the full season in the backline.
• Sheerin didn't miss may games but Mon still polled votes when she did.

IMO Mon Conti started polling more votes when she made football her #1 priority ahead of basketball around 2022. I think this played a far more significant role than Sheerin being in the team.

 

[Cdog71]

Nightmare reading for Richmond when not only considering the age of the Port players who dominated, but also how Conti's only company is no longer there.

Sure, but final stats are at the end of the game and we look at them comparatively as though every player has an equal opportunity in a game it doesn’t give any indication where players are at at the start of the game ie. are they that banged up, is it the best that they can produce is a 6.5/10 game or at what point did some players start losing belief in the game because of seeing others go down with injury or knowing some teammates are starting to fall away because of what they brought into the game, scoreboard momentum etc
It’s not the point one of the reasons we lost is because of not being able to play out the season strongly the point is stats only tell some of the story.
Yep we need to win more of the ball for first use but looking at Sheerins stats for the season and our ave points for compared to having her and not having her there in previous seasons it didn’t shift that needle at all.
We didn’t score more with her around the ball and at the end of the day the scoreboard is the stat that matters the most.
She’s an older type that’s a bang crash player and it’s likely she’ll look better in a better team.
I hope she can stay healthy.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I am not referring to Mon "winning" the B&F.

Ok, but it is what my % is referring to. There has never been a B&F winner from a below-average team, so it only makes sense to rate Conti's chances among the very highest if one thinks Richmond is going to be decent this year.

IMO Mon Conti started polling more votes when she made football her #1 priority ahead of basketball around 2022. I think this played a far more significant role than Sheerin being in the team.

Didn't play the 2021/22 WNBL season and finished 10th in the AFLW B&F for 2022 S6. She only polled top 5 once Sheerin joined and added some much needed grunt work to the team (either as a back or mid), thereby allowing Conti to play a more free-wheeling and eye-catching style.

And her polling did drop in the 2024 games Sheerin wasn't able to play or play well/healthy.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Sure, but final stats are at the end of the game and we look at them comparatively as though every player has an equal opportunity in a game it doesn’t give any indication where players are at at the start of the game ie. are they that banged up, is it the best that they can produce is a 6.5/10 game or at what point did some players start losing belief in the game because of seeing others go down with injury or knowing some teammates are starting to fall away because of what they brought into the game, scoreboard momentum etc
It’s not the point one of the reasons we lost is because of not being able to play out the season strongly the point is stats only tell some of the story.
Yep we need to win more of the ball for first use but looking at Sheerins stats for the season and our ave points for compared to having her and not having her there in previous seasons it didn’t shift that needle at all.
We didn’t score more with her around the ball and at the end of the day the scoreboard is the stat that matters the most.
She’s an older type that’s a bang crash player and it’s likely she’ll look better in a better team.
I hope she can stay healthy.

There is nothing misleading about the stats from that game or any other Richmond game since McKenzie came along. They are 5-0 when she gets the footy 20+ times.

She is a no.1 draft pick and the team's 2nd marquee player. But instead of her 12-touch finals stinker, let's worry about the budget forwards who had 10+ and kicked 2-3 goals?

The money is all in the midfield and it's where they got smashed by younger opponents, and so logically it should be focussed on as the most important area for improvement.

 

[Cdog71]

There is nothing misleading about the stats from that game

I didn’t say misleading.

They are 5-0 when she gets the footy 20+ times.

She’s a run and bounce player and a sweet pass by foot who plays in the centre and fwd of centre.
There’s a massive difference in fwd 50 conversations if the kick travels further than 35 mtr and gets there quickly.
Yes she can do that so I’m not surprised if she gets it 20 times there are good outcomes.

let's worry about the budget forwards who had 10+ and kicked 2-3 goals?

Like I’ve said our points for didn’t change when Sheerin was playing mid it didn’t release Mckenzie or make the team better overall.
We are about 18points a game on ave away from being a threat in finals.

The money is all in the midfield and it's where they got smashed by younger opponents, and so logically it should be focussed on as the most important area for improvement.

We’ve bought in talent to have an impact around stoppages and clearances and we’re putting time into Bacons development as a mid I guess we’ll see what happens.


What we do agree on is there is upside in Richmond through McKenzie I think it’s as a threat to the scoreboard.

 

[Teen Wolf]

She’s a run and bounce player and a sweet pass by foot who plays in the centre and fwd of centre.
There’s a massive difference in fwd 50 conversations if the kick travels further than 35 mtr and gets there quickly.
Yes she can do that so I’m not surprised if she gets it 20 times there are good outcomes.

The surprise should be that a highly touted junior with her size, strength, speed and leap has only had 20+ five times across her first five AFLW seasons.

Like I’ve said our points for didn’t change when Sheerin was playing mid

Since 2022 S7, Richmond's average score lifted from 34 up to 47 in Sheerin's 8 games of 5+ clearances.