AFLW 2025 Predictions & Passmarks

[Cdog71]

The surprise should be that a highly touted junior with her size, strength, speed and leap has only had 20+ five times across her first five AFLW seasons.


Since 2022 S7, Richmond's average score lifted from 34 up to 47 in Sheerin's 8 games of 5+ clearances.

Did you really skip a whole season to try and make a point
C’mon mate

 

[Teen Wolf]

Did you really skip a whole season to try and make a point
C’mon mate

...um, no? I'm saying from 2022 S7 to 2024 (three whole seasons), Richmond played 34 games.

In 8 of those games (7 in 2024 + the last game of 2023), Sheerin had 5 or more clearances, and Richmond averaged 47 points. In the other 26 games, Sheerin had fewer than 5 clearances (mostly 2 or less), and Richmond averaged 34 points.

That is a pretty good sign her addition to the midfield did in fact increase Richmond's scoring. Therefore, your baseless claim to the contrary is worthy of a reverse "c'mon mate".

 

[Cdog71]

n 8 of those games (7 in 2024 + the last game of 2023), Sheerin had 5 or more clearances, and Richmond averaged 47 points. In the other 26 games, Sheerin had fewer than 5 clearances (mostly 2 or less), and Richmond averaged 34 points.

I don’t see it that way.
Of course you want as much talent as you can get and impactful players however it’s the team that wins games.
For arguement sake my view is, using the basic metric of points scored for the season Richmond are about 3 goals a game on average behind the top tier teams and Sheerin in the middle didn’t result in a net gain in that regard for the season.
We had some big wins against some teams but against anyone above us we couldn’t score enough.
Of course there are other moving parts.
Your opinion is put your best players around the ball.
Fergusen had an approach to smash it forward play small def fwds try and gain repeat fwd entries and score.
It isn’t effective against well drilled def teams and when you play the better teams or get to the finals they are all well drilled.
Marks inside 50 or within scoring range are the highest conversion rate of i50’s.
The premise of all of this is I think McKenzie needs to be a scoreboard threat and we need to score more often.
I think she is the most advanced at completing a pass under pressure by foot and that to me is more important in scoring than gaining ground through smash kicks.
I don’t think Sheerins strength is completing a pass and it shows in her score involvements and Goal assists.

The week after our loss to Port, Hawthorn had 22 more i50’s more scoring shots and were run down because they didn’t convert and Port took marks within scoring range in the last quarter.

I dont think Sheerin made us more potent as a midfield or generating more score or scoring herself.
She got a couple but she’s not a scoring mid or a GA player.

You can argue it if you want but I think I’m right.

 

[Teen Wolf]

For arguement sake my view is, using the basic metric of points scored for the season Richmond are about 3 goals a game on average behind the top tier teams and Sheerin in the middle didn’t result in a net gain in that regard for the season.

Yeah I heard you the first time. That's why I showed you the numbers which indicate different.

Fergusen had an approach to smash it forward play small def fwds try and gain repeat fwd entries and score.
It isn’t effective against well drilled def teams and when you play the better teams or get to the finals they are all well drilled.

Port Adelaide is not a well-drilled team. Whenever a team matched their work rate last year, they lost.

 

[Hoop1888]

Guys, who would be the best of the Irish girls, Moloney? Going to try keeping an eye on highlights as a couple of girls from my home county are playing this season. Cheers.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Guys, who would be the best of the Irish girls, Moloney? Going to try keeping an eye on highlights as a couple of girls from my home county are playing this season. Cheers.

For highlights probably Moloney and Gilroy, but Aisling McCarthy was the most consistent last year. Eilish O'Dowd was also very busy in just her first season, so it'll be interesting to see how she develops.

The likely top teams (Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne & North Melb.) will all be well represented again, though.

 

[Hoop1888]

For highlights probably Moloney and Gilroy, but Aisling McCarthy was the most consistent last year. Eilish O'Dowd was also very busy in just her first season, so it'll be interesting to see how she develops.

The likely top teams (Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne & North Melb.) will all be well represented again, though.

Thanks for that. I seen O'Dowd scored her 1st goal with her 1st touch in one game or might have been her 1st game? Anyway, cracking score and read she broke the 5km record in pre season training last year, so she seems well suited to footy. There's another girl that plays for the Crows, #23, and seen one of those youtube shorts higlights of her which can be misleading, but looked a proper speed merchant.

Hopefully the game grows and gets stronger every year.



Edit: Fastest AFLW goal and 1.5 km run, not 5km. Over 30 players playing, Christ that's a fair amount. My memory fails me once again.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Thanks for that. I seen O'Dowd scored her 1st goal with her 1st touch in one game or might have been her 1st game? Anyway, cracking score and read she broke the 5km record in pre season training last year, so she seems well suited to footy. There's another girl that plays for the Crows, #23, and seen one of those youtube shorts higlights of her which can be misleading, but looked a proper speed merchant.

Hopefully the game grows and gets stronger every year.

Not just 1st game or 1st touch, but also 1st minute. Probably the most Stynesian type that we've seen in AFLW so far.

Yes Niamh Kelly had a standout year for Adelaide in 2023 but was a little less effective in 2024. Joined this year by older sister Grace who hasn't been as good but it will be her first season with a really strong team (which might benefit her cause or hinder it).

 

[Teen Wolf]

I have three friends (let's call them SB, T*B & PB) who have put their minds together to assign values for premiership favouritism:

North Melb. 2.87 (this time last year: 5.50)
Brisbane 6.00 (4.50)
Adelaide 6.33 (6.00)
Geelong 11 (10)
Melbourne 11 (8.00)
Hawthorn 14 (18)
Richmond 21 (18)
Port Adelaide 25 (51)
Collingwood 26 (21)
Essendon 26 (18)
Sydney 31 (18)
St Kilda 32 (18)
Fremantle 34 (21)
Gold Coast 40 (18)
GWS Giants 41 (67)
Carlton 81 (26)
West Coast 88 (67)
W. Bulldogs 88 (67)

Some of the noteworthy things there include:

GWS, on the back of a 1.5-win season, are somehow 26 'points' shorter than this time last year.

Fremantle went from 13th in 2023 to 6th in 2024, but have been pushed out by 13 points.

WCE & WB went from bottom 2 in 2023 to 12th-13th in 2024, but have been pushed out by 21 to the longest shot at 88.

Collingwood, after a disastrous wooden spoon season, are only 5 points longer than this time last year.

North's 2.87 seems ridiculously short, considering it's barely longer than what they were given to beat Brisbane in R1 last year. On the other hand, Melbourne went into 2023 at 3.50, and fell well short of going back-to-back.

 

[CrowdedHouse]

Okay, time for the I'll get flamed for sure prediction of season 2025.

2nd Draft, because I lost where I was during the 1st Draft - the joys of being interrupted at work!

1. (Nth Melb) Tassie Kangaroos 11-1
2. Fremantle 10-2
3. Geelong 10-2
4. Adelaide 9-3
5. Richmond 9-3
6. Brisbane 9-3
7. Melbourne 8-4
8. Hawthorn 6-6
-------
9. Sydney 6-6
10. Bulldogs 6-6
11. Port Power 5-7
12. West Coast 5-7
13. Collingwood 3-9
14. Essendon 3-9
15. Carlton 3-9
16. St. Kilda 2-10
17. Gold Coast 2-10
18. GWS 1-11

Even I don't like Fremantle being up that high - didn't help I predicted them to knock off North over in WA, but felt it could be one of those "we're cruising along, let's run out the depth players" game for North, who wouldn't be fussed dropping that game.

Anyway, a prediction of the finals...

WEEK ONE
North beat Adelaide at IKON Park
Freo beat Geelong at Fremantle Oval
Richmond beat Hawks at IKON Park
Lions beat Melbourne at Springfield

WEEK TWO
Adelaide beat Richmond at Norwood
Geelong beat Lions at Kardinia Park

WEEK THREE - UPSET CITY
North lose to Geelong at IKON Park
Freo lose to Adelaide at Fremantle Oval

GRAND FINAL
Geelong lost to Adelaide at Kardinia Park

The old theory goes, doesn't matter where you finish in the Top 8, as long as you make it and turn it on in the finals.

 

[TigermanM2]

Guys, who would be the best of the Irish girls, Moloney? Going to try keeping an eye on highlights as a couple of girls from my home county are playing this season. Cheers.

Late on this as I don't frequent here often.

Bit staggered no one has mentioned Brisbane's Orla O'Dwyer in the replies. Has played the most games by an Irish woman and first to grab an All-Australian guernsey. Has been a fabulous import to AFLW (even though she was born in Sydney).

Although she doesn't feature in the highlights as often as others (still, has a few herself) she has been as consistent as any and a very deserving mention when discussing which players are among the best of the Irish contingent.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Deja vu for Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs on the injury front.

Clubs with key players struggling this early on never seem to recover in a short season (get an extra two weeks this year, but still). Consequently my subject-to-change tips for Round 1 are:

Carl to beat Coll by 1
WCE to beat GC by 2
Syd to beat Rich by 4
Geel to lose to NM by 8
GWS to lose to Ess by 16
WB to lose to Melb by 32
BL to beat Haw by 64
StK to lose to Adel by 128
PA and Frem to draw

 

[Teen Wolf]

As with every year, I'd be cautious to base predictions on official practice match results, and ignore match sims altogether.

But, if one is so inclined, below are the scores from the last 2 days (given the AFL/W website is either making you wait, or forcing you to go looking):

Syd 7.11.53 def GWS 3.5.23
BL 13.10.88 def GC 2.1.13
Carl 6.3.39 def by Rich 7.7.49
WB 7.1.43 def NM 3.9.27
Ess 46 def Coll 40
PA 7.7.49 def Adel 6.11.47
Frem 7.3.45 def WCE 3.4.22
Melb 9.8.62 def Haw 4.4.28
StK 4.5.29 def by Geel 8.11.59

 

[timokane]

Whos our tips for the wooden spoon mines Carlton

 

[TheTassieHawk]

Whos our tips for the wooden spoon mines Carlton

Gold Coast

 

[The Nostradamus]

Whos our tips for the wooden spoon mines Carlton

Eagles

 

[bluebagger95]

Whos our tips for the wooden spoon mines Carlton

collingwood

 

[Teen Wolf]

icymi



Match replays available on the AFLW website in the usual place (Videos and scroll down a bit).

 

[timokane]

Kind of bullish on the Pies this edition of the AFLW.
Kind of watch this space.
Onwards and upwards.
Starting to gain young talent now.
They are rebuilding now.
Bit to go but on the right track.
Dusted themselves off from the expansion sagas of the aflw.
team to watch.
They should win it all in a couple of w's time.
Beginning to turn it around both vflw and aflw programs departments.

 

[mookieb]

Kind of bullish on the Pies this edition of the AFLW.
Kind of watch this space.
Onwards and upwards.
Starting to gain young talent now.
They are rebuilding now.
Bit to go but on the right track.
Dusted themselves off from the expansion sagas of the aflw.
team to watch.
They should win it all in a couple of w's time.
Beginning to turn it around both vflw and aflw programs departments.

Going to be a tough year for Coll I think. Lost some good players and unfortunately got a bit of an injury list going into the start of the season. Won't be alone though - WC, Carl, Ess, GC and WB also likely to struggle and get nowhere near the better teams. A few teams have lost players and racking up multitude of injuries early. Poor old Ess looks shot - add Gay to the injury list + departure of players.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Another prediction I'm making is all these single-game records will be broken this year (assuming I've got them up to date). A couple loooong overdue.

Team
Highest score: 16.11.107 – Melbourne (vs Frem, R9 2022 S6)
Highest losing score: 9.7.61 – Geelong (vs Haw, R5 2024)
Biggest winning margin: 96 points – Adelaide (vs GWS, R5 2022 S7)
Biggest successful comeback: 26 points – Hawthorn (vs Syd, R5 2022 S7) & St Kilda (vs Coll, R4 2023)

Individual
Most goals: 7 – Brooke Lochland (vs Carl, R4 2018 R4)
Most disposals: 42 – Ash Riddell (vs WCE, R10 2022 S6) & Charlie Rowbottom (vs GWS, R3 2024)
Most marks: 14 – Anne Hatchard (vs NM, R2 2022 S6)
Most contested marks: 7 – Tayla Harris (vs BL, R7 2022 S6) & Sabrina Frederick (vs Adel, R1 2018)

 

[CURVE]

A couple more predictions.

• Sarah Black hates North Melbourne so will select another team, probably Adelaide or Brisbane, to win this year's Premiership.
• Gemma Bastiani loves North Melbourne (may not be her favourite team though) and will predict North go undefeated again.
• Brisbane and Adelaide will play their 100th AFLW match in round 7 (IIRC), but I predict Melbourne will play their 100th in the first week of finals.
• Fremantle will not reach 100 games in season 2025, they have currently played 84 and would need 4 weeks of finals footy to reach 100.

EDIT: Just watched the first episode of the W Show and Sarah Black predicted Brisbane to win the Premiership.

EDIT #2: One of my predictions is wrong before the season even started, Gemma Bastiani has also tipped Brisbane to win the Premiership.

 

[CURVE]

I had a go at the AFLW Ladder Predicter during lunch and this is what I came up with.



I didn't worry about margins, just the wins which is why the percentages are close and uniform.

Once again, I think North will go through the season undefeated, I think the recruitment of Sheerin from Richmond will make them even better this season, I think their younger players like O'Loughlin, Tripodi, Gatt and Craven will continue to improve, while players like Bogue and Gavin Mangan can add a different dynamic up forward if they get their chance to play. I can't see any drop off from the likes of Garner, Riddell, Kearney and their other experienced players either, they are still striving to get better.

I have Geelong as the premiership smokies this season, if they can stay fit, they look to have a very strong midfield that should be able to compete with the likes of North, Brisbane and Adelaide, and a potent forward line that will trouble all teams. If they stay fit, I'm still a little concerned if they have injuries to a number of key players, do they have the depth cover more than 1 or 2.

My surprise for the 2025 season is either the Dogs or Pies, I have the Dogs sneaking into the eight (injuries and depth are a concern), although whether it is them, Collingwood or Hawthorn could come down to the Dogs/Pies game in round 7, that's a real 50/50 for me at the moment, but I selected the Dogs because they are home.

Essendon, Richmond and Carlton are concerning me a little at the moment, I'm not entirely sure how competitive they are going to be, especially Essendon who looked totally out their depth last weekend against an under-strength North outfit.

Richmond winning only one game will surprise many (including me) but they have the hardest draw playing seven of the clubs I predicted to make the top 8 plus Sydney and St Kilda in 50/50 games where I went for their opponent because it's their home game.

My real concern though is GWS, they look like a basket case and heading for a winless season.



I have Brisbane defeating Adelaide in the regular season, but losing to them in the finals, that game, and the North v Geelong should be the two best games of the opening week, with the remainder of the first two weeks being relatively easy to predict, but the Prelims and Grand Final are a different matter, if Geelong can stay fit and competitive this could be the best finals series in AFLW history and perhaps an upset (of sorts) in the Prelim could occur. Just not the Grand Final, North to go back-to-back in 2025.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Why only some practice match results matter, and others don't, I'm not sure...

AFLW crystal ball: Premier, B&F, best recruit, big call, more

Premiership, best and fairest, recruit of the year. We make the call

www.afl.com.au

Set to fall
Essendon - 5
Port Adelaide - 1

But apparently Essendon kicking 2 goals vs North is more concerning than Fremantle kicking 1 goal vs St Kilda (in WA). Otherwise there's no reason for the groundswell of Bombers doomsayers.

Might slide a little but I'll be surprised if they don't start the season 3-0, 4-2. Usual injuries disclaimer applies, though they did make finals last year with minimal Toogood.

 

[kool kangas]

On 2 things will stop North Womens going through the season undefeated and winning the premiership.

Rain and/or injuries to key players..