Prediction 2025 Time Capsule

[dogwatch]

Happy New Year all you Nostradamuses!

Here, somewhat belatedly, are the results of the 2025 Time Capsule.

I'll put up the 2026 Time Capsule thread soon.

Firstly, here's the general AFL section. The short summary is we were pathetic at this. Nobody got the Brownlow winner. Nobody picked the Rising Star winner. Only one person picked Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman. And so it goes on ...




We did slightly better at the WB section, as you'd hope:

 

[dogwatch]

To work out who did best I allocated points as follows:

AFL Section
4 - Premiers
3 - Runners-Up
2 - Spoon
2 - Who Drops Out? - 2 points were available because there were two who dropped out of contention and two who surprised. You got one point for each one you got right (nobody got both). But if you had more than two guesses you lost half a point for every guess in excess of two. That's to stop you listing every team!
2 - Who Surprises? - same scoring system/rationale as above.
4 - Brownlow
3 - Coleman
2 -Rising Star

There was also a novelty section for the best storyline of 2025 (see below). I gave 1 point each to bobs head soup , Walsh Bay and Frewy . Come at me.

WB Section
3 - Number of WB wins
3 - Exact Ladder position (nobody picked 9th!)
1 - How long we'd last in the finals (those who said we wouldn't make finals got a point each)
3 - CSM Winner
2 - CSM runner-up
2 - CSM third (you also got a consolation point each time you got a top 3 player but in the wrong position)
3 - Leading goalkicker
1 - And how many goals he kicked (or half a point for nearest the pin if nobody got the exact number AND player)
3 - All Australians - 3 points available because we had three AAs. One point for each but half a point off for every pick in excess of 3.
2 - Best First Year Player
2 - Most Improved
2 - Most Courageous
1 - Best Team Player
1 - RS nominees (nil) you got 1 point if you said zero
1 - Biggest win
1 - Exact margin (half a point if you got the right opponent AND were nearest the pin)
1 - Biggest loss
1 - Exact margin (half a point if you got the right opponent AND were nearest the pin)
3 - Membership tally - I gave 3, 2 & 1 for the three guesses nearest the pin.
1 - Debutant to play most games
6 - Players off the list - 6 points available because there were six off the list. You got one point for every correct answer and again I deducted half a point for every pick you had in excess of the 6.

 

[dogwatch]

Here were the "Biggest Stories of 2025" entries, where the stated criteria were "funniest, most creative".

I gave a point each to those below in bold which I thought were the best of a mostly average lot.

• GWS Players suspended for harmless P diddy skit (More education required)
• Pre-Free Agent request a trade mid season
• Stringer makes all Australian team
• Channel 7 bombs out in the ratings whenever Cornes is on, so rumours and innuendo start about his sacking or contract extension.
• Ken Hinkley re-signs for another 10 years and Kane Cornes is rejoiced
• Jake Stringer has contract torn up after being exposed as the mystery defecator in Toby Greene's locker.
• Bont wins everything
• Patrick Dangerfield quits Geelong to run for a Federal House of Representatives seat at the 2025 Election for the Liberal Party (either Corio or Corangamite), only to return in June after being beaten by the Labor candidate
• [Waiting until closer to the season for this one]
• HARLEY REID, ROWELL AND BUTTERS ALL NAME CATS AS PREFERRED DESTINATION.
  'Just get the deal done' urge journos.
• Tasmania appoints two Head Coaches.
• Bailey smith leads the AFL reform of Drug Policy - Sniffs for all
• Shock resignation of Andrew Dillon to take up chairmanship of the ACCC under the incoming Dutton government.
• Cyclone hits Melbourne on Grand Final Day and Dillon decides the game must go on.
• Geelong sanctioned for salary cap 'inconsistencies'

 

[dogwatch]

So finally (drum roll) ... here are the results.

Congrats to WAbulldog for winning overall (equal first in the AFL section, 3rd in the WB section)

Also to VitalDread (equal first in the AFL section)
and Doggies_13 (first in the WB section).



Thanks for joining in the fun folks. As noted above I will start a 2026 Time Capsule thread shortly.

 

[dogwatch]

Interesting bit of trivia on the membership tally. Nearest the pin was Foxman98 who was exactly 200 off the right answer (not a bad effort) and then there were a couple who were a bit over 300 off.

However if you took the average of what everybody predicted you'd be only 18 off.

I'm sure I've read some research on that sort of stuff. Can anyone point me to it?
i.e. Nobody gets it right but on average the population as a whole does. Useful stuff in market research, etc.

 

[grassman75]

Dead to be stiff….14.5 wins was my pick. Would that have got us in the 8?

 

[BigFloppa]

Interesting bit of trivia on the membership tally. Nearest the pin was Foxman98 who was exactly 200 off the right answer (not a bad effort) and then there were a couple who were a bit over 300 off.

However if you took the average of what everybody predicted you'd be only 18 off.

I'm sure I've read some research on that sort of stuff. Can anyone point me to it?
i.e. Nobody gets it right but on average the population as a whole does. Useful stuff in market research, etc.

Francis Galton's "wisdom of the crowd" is largely cited at the first observation of this. It's been highly studied and universally accepted within statistics since.

Francis Galton's "wisdom of crowds" observation, made at a 1906 English fair, showed that the average guess of a large group (787 people) estimating an ox's weight was almost exactly correct, far better than most individual guesses, demonstrating that collective intelligence can outperform individual experts for certain problems. He noted that the crowd's median guess was only off by 1 pound from the actual weight, a phenomenon now used in business, politics, and forecasting, highlighting that diverse, independent judgments can converge on surprisingly accurate solutions.