Prediction 2026 Expectations

[Jezzitizle]

Richmond fans at the start of 2017 would have said something similar, for memory they had 3 consecutive years of first round exits and people didn't think Hardwick was the man to lead them to promise land. hell, Brisbane had a smiilar story befor they made their first grand final in 23.

However, our record of shitting the bed in big games is what makes me nervous. if we can conquer that then we can make and win a GF

We won plenty of big games last year, including dominating the dogs on the road to play finals, when most neutral pundits thought we would be roadkill.

Wouldn’t say we shat the bed v GC either, both teams showed up and played very well for the most part and we just lost.

 

[swanny1234]

Top 4 and a prelim final.
Anything less is a failure.

 

[rgauci]

We won plenty of big games last year, including dominating the dogs on the road to play finals, when most neutral pundits thought we would be roadkill.

Wouldn’t say we shat the bed v GC either, both teams showed up and played very well for the most part and we just lost.

Both Gold Coast and Freo were well short of the top 4, in particular the top 2 who toyed with us. Brisbane took our game plan apart in a quarter on our home deck. Geelong had us looking at a 10 goal defeat and unable to score before Murphy Reid lit up his debut.

Gold Coast added some serious talent in the offseason. We haven’t. It’s 99% internal growth, Judd McVee is OK, but hardly a world beater.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Wasn’t too long ago Brisbane were described as chokers.

Our midfield hasn’t been good enough to match the best teams, too much on Serong and Brayshaw. Now it looks like Johnson, Ras, Reid are ready to take the next step. Young staying fit is critical. If the midfield meets expectations then we will be right up there.

KPFs still young too, still plenty of growth there.

Port always were deficient with their KPDs and KPFs, and played a very outside game that got found out in finals.

You could make a strong case our squad needs finals experience to win one, but I don’t agree there is an inherent flakiness, just lack of experience and depth at times in the past.

I think in finals you need goals from your small forwards and mids.

This is the biggest weakness in our team. Need 8 to 10 goals from our mids and smalls to win a flag. We are very dependent on Voss, Amiss and Treacy to do the damage at the moment

 

[King Huskii]

Brisbane made something like 3 or 4 prelims in a row and now have two premierships. They will contend again and may do so for a while yet. Mind you the father sons help currently and in the future.

We should have a team up for the next 5 years or more.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Wasn’t too long ago Brisbane were described as chokers.

Our midfield hasn’t been good enough to match the best teams, too much on Serong and Brayshaw. Now it looks like Johnson, Ras, Reid are ready to take the next step. Young staying fit is critical. If the midfield meets expectations then we will be right up there.

KPFs still young too, still plenty of growth there.

Port always were deficient with their KPDs and KPFs, and played a very outside game that got found out in finals.

You could make a strong case our squad needs finals experience to win one, but I don’t agree there is an inherent flakiness, just lack of experience and depth at times in the past.

Brisbane were described as chokers but they were also making the Top 4 regularly: It was clear they would eventually get there with the amount of repeat finals, and high quality opponents in finals, they had. Richmond exploded for sure and there's a quality comparison to be made there but, well, they had advantages we simply won't get either like playing games against higher ranking teams at home in finals and 16+ games experience a season at the Grand Final venue. It's a good comparison but far from a perfect one to inspire confidence. But also: For every Brisbane and Richmond there's more than a few Ports, late 00s Bulldogs, mid-late 10s Geelong, 20s GWS: Teams who could constantly make the Top 4 and sides every logically knows can win it but very few feel like they can because they're just missing a pivotal piece.

Your comparisons of KPFs is true but I think they're now starting to hit that breakout level of experience. I also think it's kinda wrong not to include Brayshaw or Serong in the problems with the midfield: They may not have help but they both get beaten in the biggest moments one on one quite often. It's a legitimate concern over their height and body size. It's encouraging to read that this has been a big point of work over the off season and hopefully the whole mix won't be so easy to move off the pill when the scores are level in the final minute of a must win game/final. It's also encouraging just how many options we have ti float through the midfield. Each offering very different skill sets. The dream of a tactical game day coach.

I'm more hopeful than expectant. Logic suggests improvement, experience and supporters trauma suggests otherwise. But I disagree with your final assessment: Yes we're inexperienced but the cold, hard objective truth is 'flaky' is the only way to describe teams who can both knock off Collingwood and Gold Coast away but struggle to get over North and St. Kilda at home. That's why the most important thing to see for our growth, as I mentioned, as the gap between our worst and best getting considerably smaller

 

[_007_]

 

[King Huskii]

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I agree with this bar Hawks. I think Geelong will be stronger. And GC maybe stronger.

 

[Purpletown]

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I would be happy with that from a Freo perspective.

 

[Rockmelon]

We won plenty of big games last year, including dominating the dogs on the road to play finals, when most neutral pundits thought we would be roadkill.

Wouldn’t say we shat the bed v GC either, both teams showed up and played very well for the most part and we just lost.

We shat the bed against Brisbane where top 4 was within reach. i would also argue that for periods of the GC game we werent very good which will 100% cost us a flag if we dont fix it.

Your right though, we have won some big games over the last few years but we seem to be like deer in headlights sometimes in big games. Fixing that is the last step this group needs to take to be legit

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

All the hopeful realism is fine and probably fair but Im pretty sure it's largely based on Freo being Freo for 30 years. Teams go from thereabouts to genuine contenders every year. The discussion on what's a fail or not begins and ends with the state of the list for mine.

The club has signed its core to long term deals, it clearly believes the cattle we have is good enough and I really dont think too many best 25's are definitively better than ours. This core is now experienced and in its prime and wants for as close to nothing as you could hope for without the absurd list building advantages other clubs enjoy.

If they cant make top 4 with a healthy run, the club is fundamentally deficient in somewhere that needs to be fixed.

 

[pK75]

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Problem with squiggle is it just looks at the final ladder in the finals and doesn’t seem to factor in how teams match up against each other

 

[oldgoat]

insult?
Cheer up mikey.
oh...and no chance of the wildcard BS, its for someone else.

here it is...
We are more chance of top 4 than the wildcard!
Come on Mikey...

 

[oldgoat]

Problem with squiggle is it just looks at the final ladder in the finals and doesn’t seem to factor in how teams match up against each other

squiggle...how good are they in hindsight?
Anyone check?

 

[theGav56]

Unfortunately this means that, in the increasingly likely but still far from certain outcome, if Longmuir isn't the right coach we won't act until it's FAR too late for the current list

A couple of things focused on your last point:

• coach is an important ingredient and if you can upgrade significantly, do it.
• a rookie coach is a downgrade. Harvey and Drum were both mentored well, and highly regarded. I don't want to hand a primed list to someone on training wheels.
• my question marks re Longmuir are similar to most on here, but there is also a clear desire for significant change in playing style. I would like to consider a modification to the coaching set up to enhance our game strategy if it fails to become successful and embedded. That could mean sack the coach, but it might also include looking at appointing a strategic advisor if a better coach isn't available.
• my fantasy coach move had been for Neale to see his twilight with us as part of a segue into coaching. Probably won't happen now and there is a long list of champions who became failed coaches. But I still like it.

 

[DocT]

squiggle...how good are they in hindsight?
Anyone check?

They are consistently among the better models.
Everyone's crap at predicting the ladder, let alone finals, at this stage of the year.

 

[Clems Knee]

They are consistently among the better models.
Everyone's crap at predicting the ladder, let alone finals, at this stage of the year.

The Squiggle website has a predictor that you can select for every game, which is what the screenshot is. One punter’s prediction.
They also use their algorithm to state a projected ladder. That has us at 9th, playing Gold Coast away to get in the 8. Their algorithm is based on points for and against in the last year, and gives weightings for home games. Because we had a lot of close games that could have gone either way, Squiggle thinks we won’t win as many.
I hope we have some big wins this year, as well as winning the close ones.

 

[fnerd]

I’m just hoping for a top 8/10 finish and finals, don’t even care if we don’t win a final , the facts are , the team is just TOOOOOO YOUNG and not ready to compete for a flag.

Another finals game , even if just the one will be invaluable for our youthful group

Slow , steady , safe and conservative is how this club will climb the mountain- probably around 2028/9 when serong and Andy are 30/31 and have over 200games under their belt.

This is the only way. And the only way we can truly judge jlo as a couch. He after all just needs more time before we can truly judge maybe 2030 we will have an idea if he’s the guy.

The only thing this team should be winning this year is STILL being in the bottom 4 clubs for age and experience.

It really is the most important stat in football *

*As Potential/future premierships are always better than actual finals wins and premierships

 

[Clems Knee]

Sarcastica font

 

[DocT]

I’m just hoping for a top 8/10 finish and finals, don’t even care if we don’t win a final , the facts are , the team is just TOOOOOO YOUNG and not ready to compete for a flag.

Another finals game , even if just the one will be invaluable for our youthful group

Slow , steady , safe and conservative is how this club will climb the mountain- probably around 2028/9 when serong and Andy are 30/31 and have over 200games under their belt.

This is the only way. And the only way we can truly judge jlo as a couch. He after all just needs more time before we can truly judge maybe 2030 we will have an idea if he’s the guy.

The only thing this team should be winning this year is STILL being in the bottom 4 clubs for age and experience.

It really is the most important stat in football *

*As Potential/future premierships are always better than actual finals wins and premierships

Is this taking the p**s?
Next year, of our best 23, the only two regular players with less than 50 games played will be Voss and Reid. Both these guys are already playing like 100+ gamers for confidence/authority/nous.
14-15 of our side will be 100+ gamers by season's end.
R U seriously suggesting that Serong/Brayshaw are happy to wait until they are past their peak before this side is 'competing for a flag'?
We are still young but JLo and the club were right 12m ago to declare youth is no longer an excuse.
No-one is seriously suggesting that we are flag favourites in 2026. But we should repeatedly show that we can take it up to the best and put middling teams to the sword.
Our premiership window is open in 2026.

 

[mattis117]

That's def a piss take.

 

[DQ 4EVER]

I am sick of it
FOFO
Flag or f off

 

[BarbieITFC]

Top 4 and prelim is my expectation.

We stuffed up our start to last year and blew the elimination final. But that aside, we went 12-2 in the last fourteen rounds, only losing away at SCG (not exactly a horror) and at home to the eventual Premiers as they were hitting their straps (not a great performance but the Lions were immense that day).

There was a lot of very good in the second half of the season that gets overshadowed by the loss to the Suns, including beating the Pies at the G and the Rd 24 win against the Doggies.

For JLo - this is his Hardwick 2017 season - OK, maybe winning the flag is a bit too high a benchmark, but Dimma was drinking from the last chance saloon going into that season and I see the same with JLo. I'm a believer but now's his time to deliver a run of 5-6 consecutive finals series including a couple of flags. If we don't see that start this season with a statement (i.e. a Prelim appearance) then like many others I'm going to shift my position on him.

 

[Purple Suit]

Top 4 and prelim is my expectation.

We stuffed up our start to last year and blew the elimination final. But that aside, we went 12-2 in the last fourteen rounds, only losing away at SCG (not exactly a horror) and at home to the eventual Premiers as they were hitting their straps (not a great performance but the Lions were immense that day).

There was a lot of very good in the second half of the season that gets overshadowed by the loss to the Suns, including beating the Pies at the G and the Rd 24 win against the Doggies.

For JLo - this is his Hardwick 2017 season - OK, maybe winning the flag is a bit too high a benchmark, but Dimma was drinking from the last chance saloon going into that season and I see the same with JLo. I'm a believer but now's his time to deliver a run of 5-6 consecutive finals series including a couple of flags. If we don't see that start this season with a statement (i.e. a Prelim appearance) then like many others I'm going to shift my position on him.

I agree expect it was 2016 for Hardwick after 3 seasons of straight finals exits and 7 years in the job. A flag is not too high of a target but not getting there in 2026 won't be a complete failure if we can improve on last year.

 

[swanny1234]

I’m just hoping for a top 8/10 finish and finals, don’t even care if we don’t win a final , the facts are , the team is just TOOOOOO YOUNG and not ready to compete for a flag.

Another finals game , even if just the one will be invaluable for our youthful group

Slow , steady , safe and conservative is how this club will climb the mountain- probably around 2028/9 when serong and Andy are 30/31 and have over 200games under their belt.

This is the only way. And the only way we can truly judge jlo as a couch. He after all just needs more time before we can truly judge maybe 2030 we will have an idea if he’s the guy.

The only thing this team should be winning this year is STILL being in the bottom 4 clubs for age and experience.

It really is the most important stat in football *

*As Potential/future premierships are always better than actual finals wins and premierships

What a load of bullshit. We’re either here to win a flag or there is no point.
This list is good enough, it’s packed full of talent, and it has enough depth.

The age thing is such a cop out. If you’re good enough, you’re old enough.

Anything less than a prelim final is a failed year.

Edit - I look like a fool, should’ve read the full comment